FAs I do every year, allow me to reluctantly engage in a bit of
a humble brag before we get into the heart of what I believe is
the best draft-day tool around. (Yes, I am biased.) I have been
playing in money leagues for more than 20 years and in high-stakes
leagues ($1,000-plus entry) for about 15 years. I have played
in those high-stakes leagues during the leanest of times, and
I did so in part because I knew I had an advantage over my competition.
Does it always result in a championship? Of course not. However,
I win roughly one of every six leagues I enter and have never
had a season in which I lost money. Does that mean it cannot happen?
Of course not. With that said, I will stack my success (and the
success of many of my readers) against anyone else in the industry.
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Football is simple at its very core but a very complex game to
evaluate and analyze because 11 men try to work in harmony roughly
60 times per game, while 11 other men make it their job to disrupt
that harmony. Pro football is not pro basketball in that a team
can clear out one side of the court when things break down and
the offense can still score. Pro football is also not pro baseball
in that one player can defeat a pitcher and eight fielders by
timing his swing just right. Even as great as Barry Sanders was,
he never beat a defense all by himself. In football, every player
needs some help to accomplish his goal. That is part of what makes
football so great and part of what makes it so highly unpredictable.
The violence of the game - even by the tamer standards now - adds
another element to the equation that is difficult to quantify.
Regardless, it does not mean we should not try. Over the last
month, I have evaluated the weekly matchups for 500-plus players.
Analyzing matchups alone requires me to make more than 8,000 "decisions".
Each year, my goal is to give those who put their faith in my
evaluations the confidence they have the best draft-day tool at
their disposal. Even if my grading process is only 70 percent
accurate, that is still a significant advantage over any analyst
who does not consider it at all.
Fantasy football is a stock market game, and the job of an analyst
is to identify when stocks are poised to skyrocket or ready to
tank. While last year's results help fantasy managers/analysts
set the table for the following season, they are merely a starting
point. Fantasy rankings and drafting need to be predictive, not
reactive. I have taken this approach for more than 15 years. While
some of the processes have changed in that time, the main goal
has not.
The Success Score Index (SSI) below is powered
in large part by my target and carry predictions. As always, the
matchup grades are included in the algorithm. SSI allows me to
compare apples to oranges across positions. Perhaps just as importantly,
I have been able to eliminate most of the guesswork across different
scoring systems (PPR, standard, etc.).
For all of those unfamiliar with my Big Boards, allow me to explain
the color-coding system before we start:
Red – For lower-level players, a red matchup
is the most difficult one a player can face. For a second- or
third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at
least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For
elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their
usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like an RB2).
Yellow – For lower-level players, he is a borderline
start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, the slight
edge goes to the defense in what is essentially a toss-up. For
the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.
White – This one can go either way, but I favor
the player over the matchup. Generally speaking, these matchups
are winnable for all levels of players.
Green – For non-elite players, the stage is
set for a player to have a productive day. For the elite player,
this matchup could produce special numbers.
Note: Players with a
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. Each tier break is represented by the different colors
in the "FPos" column.
New this year is a "Vol" column, which reflects
the volatility of my ranking. In short, it reflects the confidence
I have in the player to move into the next tier or two - be it
up or down.
Here is the scoring
system that I used to rank the players in the Half-PPR, 6-Point
Pass TD format:
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's
"Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.
next to their name have some degree of injury/character/holdout
concern. Each tier break is represented by the different colors
in the "FPos" column.
