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Jake Ferguson's 2023 season was notable for his high target volume, with over 100 passes coming his way -- a rare feat for tight ends. Despite this, his efficiency was lacking, catching just 71 passes for 761 yards and five touchdowns. Leading all tight ends in red zone targets but only converting five of them into touchdowns highlights his struggles in high-leverage situations. Given that other than Sam LaPorta, no tight end scored more than six touchdowns last season, Ferguson's five touchdowns underscore the broader challenges at the position in 2023.
Ferguson's athleticism and target share limitations hinder his potential to break into the high-end TE1 tier. However, he stands out as the top tight end in the Cowboys' offense, ensuring he receives enough opportunities to provide a stable floor for fantasy managers. This consistency is something many other tight ends being drafted behind him cannot offer, making him a relatively safe option.
The only scenario that one could envision where Ferguson's value could significantly increase is if CeeDee Lamb were to miss time, opening up a substantial number of targets. With Brandin Cooks being the only other proven pass-catcher in the offense, Ferguson could see a significant uptick in targets in a Lamb-less offense. However, Lamb has been durable throughout his career, making this scenario unlikely. Therefore, it's not advisable to draft Ferguson higher based on this hypothetical situation alone.
Ferguson's reliability and volume make him a solid TE option, but his lack of elite athleticism and target share cap his upside, positioning him as a steady but not spectacular mid-to-low-end TE1 for the 2024 season.
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