Until last week, Bo Nix struggling to hit Courtland Sutton seemed
like a distant memory. But Nix relived some of his early season
nightmares on a 3-interception day, and Sutton came away with
just 3 receptions on 9 targets (32 yards). The good news is that
Sutton scored a TD and secured his eighth-straight double-digit
point performance. Sutton now had 5 touchdowns in his last five
games, 7 on the season and 17 over the last two seasons. He also
now has 8 or more targets in seven straight games. All of this
adds up to Sutton finding himself as a steady WR2 against the
Chargers.
Will the real Bo Nix and real Chargers defense please stand up?
After throwing a pair of interceptions in each of his first two
games, Nix had thrown just 2 more in total until the last two
weeks, during which he’s combined for 5 picks. Last week,
his 130 yards passing was his lowest output since Week 4, and
his first time producing less than 200 combined passing and rushing
yards since then as well. In a bizarre game, Nix still managed
to throw 3 touchdowns and walk away with a decent fantasy day.
Obviously, this type of inefficiency will not lead to 19.5 fantasy
points – or anywhere near it - so Nix will need to get back
on track to continue to flirt with QB1 status (currently QB12).
Something has to give between the Chargers-D and Nix, and if
their first matchup is indicative of anything, Nix’s 22.7-point
fantasy day in Week 6 tips the scales in his favor. The absence
of CB’s Cam Hart and Elijah Molden – the latter of
which has allowed just a 65-passer rating on targets against this
season – curries that favor even more towards Nix. He’s
a back-end QB1 with some risk for Week 16.
Jaleel McLaughlin (quad) will not be playing this week, thinning
the backfield competition for Javonte Williams, but fellow back
Audric Estime has offered some interference in Javonte’s production.
Additionally, Williams has not rushed for more than 15 yards in
the last three games, and hasn’t seen more than nine carries in
his last five. It’s impossible to say whether his role in the
run game will grow sans McLaughlin, even while he should see a
greater share of the targets out of the backfield.
The Chargers haven’t been kind to running backs, giving
up the 6th fewest points to the position, though recently they’ve
allowed multiple backs to score at least 12 points in two of their
last four contests. Still, Williams is untrustworthy and it’s
too big a risk to roll him out there with your fantasy post-season
run on the line.
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Ladd McConkey fought through injuries last week to put up another
productive performance, reeling in 5 receptions for 58 yards and
a touchdown on 7 targets. The 14.3-point output was his 4th straight
output of 11 or more points and his 7th such output this season.
He’s looking healthier for Week 16, having returned to
full practices, but will be drawing stellar corner Patrick Surtain
II. Surtain and company held McConkey to one of his quietest days
of the season in Week 6, producing just 4-48-0 on 8 targets. Drawing
this difficult hand, McConkey is more a flex than a WR2 this week.
With McConkey drawing a tough assignment, don’t be surprised
if Justin Herbert hones in more on Quentin Johnston – something
he has already been doing a bit more of late. Johnston’s 10 targets
last week against Tampa Bay were a new career high, and he’s now
seen his 3 highest target totals of his career over the last five
games. Johnston is still hit or miss. He has scored over 13 points
in each of the last two games and at least 11 in three of the
last five, he’s also had 0- and 2.2-point performances during
that time.
Johnston is always a boom/bust type player, but the increase
in volume should likely continue this week, tilting him on the
side of being worth the risk if you’re looking for flex
help.
Even with an active Ladd McConkey, Justin Herbert was not able
to conjure up much of ceiling against the vulnerable Tampa Bay
Buccaneers defense last week, barely hitting an acceptable floor
(14.8 points). It was a disappointing outing in what seemed to
be a rare opportunity for Herbert to spread his wings in this
offense. With that chance missed, it would be some real roulette
to bank on him against a Broncos defense that has rarely been
beat this season and previously held Herbert to just 13.7 points.
He’s even difficult to go with as a Superflex option.
When it comes to running backs against the Broncos, if you’re
going to produce against them, it’s more likely going to
come through the air, as Denver has given up as many receiving
touchdown to backs (5) as rushing touchdowns. That’s something
you rarely see.
Gus Edwards has just 2 receptions for 3 yards on the season,
so he’s unlikely to capitalize here. Kimani Vidal did have
a rare 12.1-point day against the Broncos earlier in the year,
mostly due to a 2-40-1 receiving performance, but he still only
has 5 total receptions for the year and had just 5 touches last
week. Teammate J.K. Dobbins has a window to return beginning next
week, but for the moment, all Chargers running backs can remain
on your bench.
The Chiefs have given up the 19th most fantasy points to opposing
wide receivers, but they have allowed some solid showings to far
lesser receivers than Tank Dell since Week 8 including 11-point
performances from D.J. Turner, Devaughn Vele, Curtis Samuel, David
Moore, Trey Tucker and Josh Palmer (10.8, but close enough). In
short, there’s absolutely some Top 25, if not Top 20, ceiling
available for Tank Dell this week with his big play capabilities.
He’s more in play as a Flex in deep leagues, but also makes a
worthy boom/bust candidate for short-handed underdog owners in
this week’s fantasy playoffs.
Dalton Schultz has just two performances this season where he’s
scored 8 fantasy points. While some of that has to do with less
involvement (68 targets in 14 games versus 88 in 15 games last
year), an equal culprit is arguably the 1 touchdown Schultz has
in 2024 (compared to 5 last season). That 1 touchdown led to Schultz’s
only double-digit point performance this year (14.6 pts).
While the Chiefs have been repeatedly beat by tight ends, it’s
mainly been on target production outside the red zone –
they’ve given up a mere 4 touchdowns to the position. Therefore,
Schultz may not get much help in an area that’s been quite
lacking for him this season. Schultz stands to be the latest tight
end to face the Chiefs who could offer you a relatively high floor
if you’re short at the position, but the matchup doesn’t
quite make him a TE1.
Entering his second season with Nico Collins, Tank Dell, Dalton
Schultz and new additions Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon, it seemed
C.J. Stroud was poised for a Top 5 fantasy finish. Instead, he
started slow as a borderline QB1 early in the season, and slipped
to where he is now, a mere borderline QB2 after losing Collins
for half the season and Diggs for the rest of the year.
There’s been little bounce for Stroud since Collins returned.
Last week against Miami, while he threw 2 touchdowns, he threw
for just 130 yards. After throwing the ball at least 35 times
in 7 of the last 11 games last year, he’s attempted 35 or
more passes just four times this year. It seems that the Texans
have settled on being a run first offense, with Stroud not topping
33 attempts in the last six games.
To make matters worse, Stroud faces a Chiefs team that limits
drives, with their opponents only enjoying 10.1 drives per game
this season. Therefore, while the Chiefs are better against the
run and may encourage the Texans to throw a bit more, most likely
Stroud will not see the volume nor enjoy the efficiency to break
into QB1 territory. He’s stuck as a deep QB2 for Week 16.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
With Patrick Mahomes ready to go for Week 16 despite a mild high-ankle
sprain, fantasy managers who own any one of his viable target
options are breathing a sigh of relief. DeAndre Hopkins saw his
three-game run of double-digit fantasy point performances come
to an end in Week 15, but he was still involved with 5 receptions
on 6 targets (36 yards).
Meanwhile, teammate Xavier Worthy seems to be getting more comfortable
at the pro level, and likely is enjoying a reduction in attention
with Hopkins around. Over the last five games, Worthy’s
had an improved floor, scoring at least 7 points in each game
and seeing at least 5 targets, while averaging over a rush per
game. Last week, Worthy added his 3rd rushing touchdown of the
season.
Hopkins and Worthy face off with a Texans defense that has allowed
the 6th most fantasy points to opposing receivers despite Derek
Stingley Jr. stifling opposing wideouts (just a 46-passer rating
allowed on targets into his coverage). There’s some risk
that Mahomes is not as sharp, or further aggravates his ankle
injury, so it’s not all a bowl of cherries, but in this
matchup Hopkins and Worthy both make for solid Flex options.
Patrick Mahomes had regained QB1 status in fantasy football following
the arrival of DeAndre Hopkins, but that was derailed due to difficult
weather conditions in Cleveland last week (19-38 passing), and
an ankle injury late in the game threatened to create a new hiatus
from the fantasy QB1 conversation. But Mahomes came out practicing
in full this week, and the Chiefs are giving off quite a confidence
about his ability to step on the field and perform in Week 16.
With the Chiefs having a two-game edge on the Bills for the top
seed, it would seem to reason that K.C. wouldn’t take any
unnecessary risks, so it’s fair to assume that Mahomes is
close to 100%. Still, any dip in Mahomes health, coupled with
the risk of further injury, makes him a risky play. Facing a Texans
team that has given up 27 touchdowns to opposing QBs makes it
tempting to roll Mahomes out there, but proceed with caution and
think of him more as a high QB2 with upside than a QB1.
Meanwhile, tight end Travis Kelce draws a Texans team that has
been very Jekyll and Hyde in facing opposing tight ends. They’ve
held three different primary tight ends to under 1 point this
season, while also allowing 3 different 13-point performances
over the last six weeks. Kelce, himself, has been very up and
down. He’s mostly feasted on good matchups, and has often
otherwise been quiet.
Last week, he produced just 4 receptions for 27 yards, has had
45 or less yards in three of the last five games (including 8
yards against Buffalo) and has just 2 touchdowns for the year.
Noah Gray’s 5 scores in the last five weeks has really bitten
into Kelce’s role in the offense. While those numbers may not
be sustainable for Gray, they do make Kelce a dicey option. He’s
once more a risky TE1 with a low floor versus the Texans.
Isiah Pacheco has quickly regained his role as the head back
in K.C. following a return from IR, with an average of 15 touches
over the last two weeks. But Pacheco has yet to look like his
old self, and actually hasn’t broken a single tackle on
the ground in 2024. He’ll be facing a Texans defense that
has given up the 4th fewest points to opposing backs, so that
won’t make it easier for him to get off the snide. He’s
not yet shown that he’s back to form and ready to be trusted
in this kind of matchup.
With George Pickens (hamstring) set to miss his third straight
game due to a hamstring injury, the Steelers will be looking to
the likes of Calvin Austin, Mike Williams, and Freiermuth to pick
up the slack. That was the scenario in Philadelphia last Sunday
as well, and in that game, it was Austin leading the way with
a 5-65-0 line. Freiermuth ended up with just three catches for
22 yards, but he scored the club’s only TD, and he was targeted
a team-high six times. When the Steelers faced the Ravens back
in Week 11, Freiermuth had just two receptions and 14 yards, but
Darnell Washington had two grabs for 42 yards, so the tight end
position had some success even with Pickens active. He's far from
a safe option, but he offers TE1 upside.
It was a mostly dismal offensive showing from the Steelers in
Week 15, and that spread to Warren, who managed just 15 yards
on five touches. That was a major departure from his solid play
over the previous two months, which saw him average 68.7 yards
per game during that seven-game run. He hit that number on the
head when he faced Baltimore on Nov. 17, rushing for 41 yards
and adding 27 through the air. Pittsburgh will need to find creative
ways to generate offense with Pickens out, and Warren is one of
their top remaining playmakers. Then again, maybe Baltimore snuffs
out their attack the same way the Eagles did. Warren can still
be used as a flex this Saturday, but he has some downside.
In two games with Pickens out of action, Wilson has thrown for
143 yards per with three total touchdowns. That’s not good
enough. There doesn’t seem to be much reason for optimism,
either, as the Steelers’ path to victory in Charm City would
involve strong defense and a ball-control offense. Even when Pickens
was in uniform versus Baltimore, Wilson only passed for 205 yards
with it doubling as his only game of the year without a touchdown.
Stay away from Wilson this week.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Flowers continues to function as Jackson’s WR1. He led the team
in both targets (7) and receptions (6) in their Week 15 win over
the Giants. That’s the good news. What isn’t so good is he finished
third in yardage (53) and went without a touchdown catch in a
game in which Jackson threw for five TDs -- three went to wideouts
with two going to Rashod Bateman and one to Devontez Walker. It’s
been a season-long issue for the 5-foot-9, 175-pound wideout,
who does most of his damage in the short and intermediate game,
meaning he doesn’t get the deep shots like Bateman and Nelson
Agholor get, and he doesn’t have the size to shine in the red
zone. Flowers did score against the Steelers in Week 11, and Pittsburgh
has had some issues with top receivers recently, including allowing
both A.J. Brown (8-110-1) and DeVonta Smith (11-109-1) to top
the century mark and score last Sunday. Get Flowers in your lineup
this week.
While certainly not the first (or likely even the fifth) name
you’d think of when looking at Baltimore’s offense,
Hill has had some good games recently. In Week 12, he had 62 yards
and a touchdown. In Week 15, Hill posted 68 yards and a score.
That’s playable production from a flex spot. The problem,
of course, is those games were sandwiched around a game in which
he had 21 yards and no TDs. The change-of-pace back logged 41
yards without a score versus the Steelers in their earlier meeting
and trusting him with a spot in your Week 17 lineup would be a
leap of faith. Still, Hill has delivered twice in his last three
games, so he’s someone desperate owners could roll the dice
on.
With Nick Chubb (foot) suffering a season-ending broken foot,
Ford is set to return as the lead back in Cleveland. He had the
team’s only touchdown versus Kansas City, running the ball seven
times for 84 yards and a score. He added a pair of receptions
for 20 yards as well, giving him his first game of over 100 total
yards for the year. We’ll see if he builds on it. Even before
Chubb returned, Ford was used judiciously, topping 15 touches
just twice all year. Despite that, there are reasons for optimism.
Ford will have fresh legs, which is always a plus at this time
of year, and him teaming with the more mobile Dorian Thompson-Robinson
could open up some read option opportunities. The Bengals are
also a middling run defense, creating a pathway to RB2 value for
Ford, though he’s better viewed as an RB3/flex option.
If anyone is more heartbroken than Jameis Winston about him being
benched it’s probably Jeudy, who’s been enjoying by far the best
run of his career with Winston delivering him the football. It
remains to be seen how the offense functions with Thompson-Robinson
under center, but it feels nearly impossible that Jeudy will come
close to matching the seven receptions and 112 yards per game
he averaged during seven outings with Winston pulling the trigger.
A full benching is a bridge too far, but you should view Jeudy
as more of a WR3 candidate this week.
With Winston turning the ball over too much, the Browns will
take an extended look at Thompson-Robinson, who has appeared in
two games this year and done little to prove he belongs in the
lineup -- that includes taking over for an injured QB Deshaun
Watson (Achilles) versus the Bengals when he passed for 82 yards,
0 TDs, and 2 INTs. We’ll get a better feel for things after
he gets a full week of first-team reps. DTR does possess some
athleticism, having averaged 6.3 yards per carry on 20 career
runs, but he hasn’t shown enough as a passer to warrant
serious consideration at this juncture.
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
In five games since posting a 6-100-2 line against the Raiders,
Gesicki has posted 15 receptions, 144 yards, and 0 TDs combined.
He’s essentially 4a/4b in terms of the passing game pecking order
with Andrei Iosivas behind Chase, Higgins, and Brown, who has
26 grabs in that same five game span. During the first meeting
with Cleveland, Gesicki had one catch for two yards. He should
be avoided here.
The Giants’ backfield has been rather frustrating over the last
month or so. Tyrone Tracy is the clear lead back, but Devin Singletary
has been mixing in at varying degrees each week. Over the last
month, we’ve seen Singletary’s snap share range from 17-35 percent.
What’s even more frustrating is that Singletary is vulturing
goal line touches. In the last four weeks, Singletary has seen
43 percent of the goal line carries while Tracy accounts for the
other 57 percent. It’s not easy to feel confident in a back
who may play 65 percent of snaps, doesn’t have a lock on
the goal line work, and is a piece of the Giants’ offense.
When that back is also facing a Falcons defense that ranks 24th
in fantasy points allowed to RBs (Half-PPR), confidence fades
even more.
Atlanta’s run defense may be solid, but their secondary
has been atrocious this season, providing a top-5 matchup for
wide receivers this season. Even in a strong matchup, everyone
seems to now be aware of what Wan’Dale Robinson offers as
a receiver. He has an extremely limited ceiling and you’re
really just hoping he compiles 6-7 receptions to deliver 14 PPR
points. There are better options out there.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30
Darnell Mooney has been one of fantasy’s pleasant surprises
this season, coming in as the WR23 overall and delivering six
weekly performances as a WR2 or better. He’s also shown
an ability to draw targets alongside Drake London, leading the
team in targets four times on the year.
The emergence of Michael Penix Jr. likely elevates Mooney’s ceiling
as there’s a good chance Penix brings more to the downfield passing
game. A matchup with the Giants, who have allowed opponents to
pass for at least 290 yards twice in the last month, also makes
Mooney an intriguing option. Ultimately, Mooney should be viewed
as an emergency Flex option as we truly don't know what we’re
getting out of Penix. The coaching staff could also very easily
babysit him by leaning on Bijan Robinson in his first start.
Kyle Pitts has been an absolute disaster in recent weeks. He
hasn’t scored double-digit PPR points since Week 8 and holds
just an 11.3-percent target share in this six-game stretch. Could
Penix be the quarterback to finally “fix” Pitts? Maybe,
but fantasy managers still shouldn’t have him anywhere near
starting lineups in the fantasy playoffs.
LaPorta is coming off easily his best game of the season, hauling
in seven passes for 111 yards against the Bills last Sunday, but
that’s not why he’s here. It’s more that I think the loss of David
Montgomery (knee) is going to lead to an increased focus on the
short and intermediate passing game, which is where the tight
end can do damage. He posted his only multi-touchdown effort of
the year when the Lions beat the Bears on Thanksgiving, and though
he finished with just six yards, he proved he can find space when
needed. Look for him to be more involved against a Bears team
that has looked worse since they dismissed Matt Eberflus following
that loss to Detroit. This is a good week to get LaPorta into
your starting lineup.
Forced to play catch up for nearly all of Week 15, Goff put up
monster numbers with 494 yards and 5 TDs through the air. While
you can’t quite dismiss it as garbage time production, there
were a lot of empty yards as Buffalo nursed a multi-possession
lead. Clearly, those numbers are coming down this Sunday. The
question is by how much? As noted above, the loss of Montgomery
is likely to force an adjustment to Detroit’s approach on
offense, but it feels like the passing game taking on a heavier
burden could end up diminishing its big-play ability. Goff, who
had modest numbers in the first meeting with Chicago (221 yards,
2 TDs, 0 INTs), projects as a low-end QB1 that carries some risk/reward
capability.
Williams has been the designated big-play threat for Detroit’s
passing attack this year, but his numbers over the past month
haven’t been great -- in his last four games, he’s
averaging 4.5 receptions and 52 yards with his lone touchdown
coming at the tail end of Sunday’s loss to Buffalo. He had
a 5-28-0 line versus the Bears on Thanksgiving. Minus Montgomery,
we’ll see if the Lions are still able to find ways to get
Williams the ball with room to maneuver or if the passing game
becomes more of an extension of the run. Given his recent struggles
and some uncertainty with the offensive structure, Williams seems
miscast as more than a shaky WR3 or flex this Sunday.
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.28
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32
Chicago’s post-Eberflus funk continued Monday night as
they managed just three points through three quarters in a loss
to the Vikings. The one silver lining to come out of that for
Moore is his usage. The Bears got the ball in his hands 11 times,
eight as a receiver and three as a runner, for 70 yards. He was
even better when he faced the Lions three weeks ago, turning eight
catches into 97 yards and a touchdown. It’s no secret that
Detroit has been devastated by injuries on defense, which is a
big part of the reason they’ve given up 79 points in the
past two games. While it’s far from clear whether the Bears
can meaningfully exploit that, Moore seems like a reasonably safe
play. You can pencil him in as a low-end WR2 or strong WR3.
Whatever life got injected into Chicago’s offense with the
firing of Shane Waldron looks to have come to an end with the
Bears failing to score in the first half of three straight games.
They made things interesting in Detroit, but in two games since
what little they’ve generated has been in glorified garbage
time. Despite those struggles, the rookie can’t be fully
written off, especially this week. That second-half comeback against
the Lions, during which he threw three TD passes, was one of his
best stretches of play all season, and Detroit is even more depleted
now. Playing Williams here would absolutely be a risk, but there’s
genuine QB1 upside.
After 15 weeks, it’s become quite clear that Calvin Ridley
is among the most volatile receivers in fantasy. Both his target
volume and fantasy production have heavily fluctuated on a week-to-week
basis. Just in the last six weeks, his weekly target share has
peaked at 39.1 percent while bottoming out at 13.2 percent. In
this same stretch, we’ve seen him reach 25.4 PPR points
in one game while scoring just 6.5 in another.
Ridley sees the deep targets (15.3-yard aDOT) that allow him
to reach a high ceiling each week. The question is whether he’s
able to connect on those looks. You know he’ll at least
have a chance to make a big play or two each week, but it all
comes down to your risk tolerance as a fantasy manager. If your
team needs a boost to win this week, Ridley may be the high-ceiling
option for you.
After Weeks 13 & 14, it looked like we finally had some clarity
on what the Tennessee backfield would look like. Week 15 flipped
everything on its head. After two weeks of Tony Pollard playing
65-70 percent of the snaps, we saw Tyjae Spears play 55 percent
last week with Pollard playing the other 45 percent.
A brief in-game injury for Pollard skewed the snap totals to
some degree, but it was clear that the coaching staff wants Spears
to play a role in this offense. After Spears played well (92 total
yards and two TDs on 10 touches), it wouldn’t be shocking
to see this resemble a 50-50 split once again this week. Unfortunately,
it’s a difficult path to being a legitimate fantasy producer
on 50 percent of snaps in the Tennessee offense.
After riding an unsustainable touchdown rate for weeks, Nick
Westbrook-Ikhine finally came back down to Earth in Week 15. The
reality of the situation is that he is a low-level target earner
who is going to rely on a splash play to score fantasy points
each week. Shooting for ceiling in the fantasy playoffs is fine,
but starting Westbrook-Ikhine isn’t the best way to put
that philosophy into practice.
TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
It’s been a rough stretch for Jonathan Taylor, scoring
more than 15.0 PPR points just once since Week 8. If it were not
for a costly fumble last week, that number would have jumped to
two.
Even with his recent struggles, Taylor is a locked-in starter
this week. He’s played at least 90 percent of the snaps
in three of his last four games and he’s a candidate for
20-plus carries in a game where the Colts are favored by 3.5 points.
The Colts have also been incredibly run-heavy as of late, ranking
31st in pass rate over expectation in the last month. Expect Taylor
to be fed the rock and break off a big play or two.
The Anthony Richardson experience is not a pleasant one. At this
point, you can almost expect him to complete less than 50 percent
of his passes and do next to nothing through the air. In his four
games since returning as the starter, Richardson is averaging
8.25 fantasy points per game through the air.
However, what Richardson can do as a rusher is what keeps him
in consideration for fantasy purposes. He’s run for at least
45 yards in three straight games, scoring in two of them. Given
his talents with the ball in his hands, Richardson has cleared
23 fantasy points twice in the last month. He can be a nightmare
to watch, but he can certainly deliver a top-10 fantasy week in
any matchup.
As previously mentioned, Anthony Richardson doesn’t create
an environment that is fantasy-friendly for pass catchers. The
Colts’ run-heavy offensive philosophy doesn’t help
either.
In the four games since Richardson reclaimed the QB1 job, Pittman
is averaging 7.5 targets per game and Josh Downs is seeing 6.3.
Across the full season, both of these marks come in outside of
the top-25 receivers. When you also factor in Richardson’s
league-leading 26.5 percent off-target throw rate, these targets
become far less valuable. Altogether, it’s just best to
stay away from pass catchers in an offense led by Richardson.
When someone on your roster has the Panthers on the schedule,
you should be absolutely thrilled to fire them up as a fantasy
starter. The Panthers have struggled mightily defending both the
run and the pass this season, ultimately coming in as the No.
32 scoring defense in the NFL.
Specifically against the pass, Carolina ranks bottom-10 in yards
allowed per pass play and EPA per dropback. When it comes to pure
fantasy scoring, Carolina has allowed an opposing receiver to
hit 25 PPR points in two of the last three weeks. Marvin Harrison
Jr.’s fantasy success has been predicated by his ability
to create big plays downfield and this secondary has proven to
be liable to give up explosive plays through the air.
Kyler Murray has been rather frustrating for fantasy managers
this year. He’s cracked 20.0 fantasy points six times on
the year, but has also scored 12.0 or fewer points in five games.
Murray has never been among the elite passers in the NFL; his
fantasy production has always largely been driven by what he’s
done on the ground. But this season, Murray simply isn’t
producing at the same as a rusher. In 14 games this season, he’s
rushed for 21 or fewer yards eight times. In 2022, he failed to
clear 21 yards just once. Last season, he fell below this mark
twice.
Murray can certainly get there through the air against Carolina,
but with sporadic rushing production, he’s not much more
than a volatile fringe QB1.
Fade: N/A
ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Chuba Hubbard likely belongs in the No Brainer tier, but after
a tough outing (8.3 PPR points) last week, some fantasy managers
might need a reminder of what Hubbard brings to the table.
With Jonathon Brooks and Miles Sanders on IR and Raheem Blackshear
dealing with a chest injury, Hubbard has cracked a 90-percent
snap share in each of the last two weeks. Blackshear is set to
make his return this week, but hitting an 80-percent snap share
(as he’s done seven times this season) while handling the vast
majority of touches is very realistic for Hubbard. Any running
back, especially one who’s shown legitimate talent like Hubbard,
deserves to be in starting lineups with this sort of workload.
Like Hubbard, Adam Thielen is coming off a down week (10.1 PPR
points), but remains a solid Flex option. Thielen is coming off
his third-straight game leading the Panthers in targets and has
now accounted for at least 25 percent of the targets in two straight
weeks.
With Xavier Legette (hip) likely missing this one, there are
even fewer roadblocks for Thielen to be a target hog yet again.
He is quite clearly Bryce Young’s go-to receiver and is a threat
for 8-10 targets every week. With a good portion of these targets
being high-percentage looks out of the slot, expect Thielen to
have a healthy catch rate (78 percent since returning) that provides
him with a solid floor.
After taking on a full-time role and ripping off an 83-yard touchdown
in his first game since Week 10, rookie Jalen Coker may have piqued
the interest of some fantasy managers. While he’s an interesting
speculative pickup in deeper leagues, he doesn’t belong
in starting lineups just yet. This isn’t an offense that
can support multiple receivers in the same game and he’ll
likely have to find the endzone from distance to get there this
week.
Saquon Barkley is typically an automatic start for any seasoned
fantasy football manager, but his underwhelming Week 15 performance
against the Steelers, where he failed to reach 10 PPR fantasy
points for only the third time this season, has raised some eyebrows.
Fantasy managers who weathered this rare off-game might approach
the upcoming contest with a bit of trepidation. However, there's
plenty of reason for optimism.
In Week 11, Barkley had a phenomenal outing against the Commanders,
amassing 198 total yards and two touchdowns in Philadelphia. Facing
the Commanders on the road might present a slightly more challenging
scenario, but Barkley's proven track record should not be overlooked.
His combination of high upside and a relatively secure floor makes
him one of the premier running backs in fantasy football.
While some rankings might not list him as the top RB for Week
16, benching a talent like Barkley based on one subpar performance
could lead to an entire offseason of regret. In fantasy football,
especially during the playoffs, sticking with your star players,
particularly those with consistent production like Barkley, is
often the best bet. Don't let one game dictate your lineup decisions
when the potential for another big performance is so high.
DeVonta Smith had a standout performance this past week, securing
a season-high 12 targets and turning them into 11 receptions for
109 yards and a touchdown, marking his second consecutive week
scoring a touchdown since coming back from a two-game injury hiatus.
Smith has been remarkably consistent, posting at least 13 PPR
fantasy points in eight out of his 11 games this season. Although
he's the clear WR2 behind A.J. Brown in the Philadelphia Eagles'
lineup, the potential for this upcoming game to turn into a high-scoring
affair bodes well for Smith's fantasy prospects. In a scenario
where the passing game is heavily utilized, Smith could once again
be a significant contributor, making him a strong play for fantasy
managers looking for reliable output from their wide receivers,
even if he seems to lack the upside to be a difference-making
WR1.
Fade: N/A
PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27
Brian Robinson returned to a strong role in Week 15, securing
a season-high tying 24 touches in the Washington Commanders' close
victory over the Saints. Although his ground production was modest
at 65 yards, the volume of touches is a positive sign for his
fantasy outlook. This increased usage likely stems from Austin
Ekeler's absence due to being on the injured reserve, where Ekeler
had previously been the go-to back for passing situations. With
Ekeler still sidelined, Robinson is poised to maintain a high
touch count, continuing to be a focal point of the Commanders'
backfield. This is however a difficult matchup against an excellent
Eagles defense, and there’s a decent chance that Robinson
is held out of the end zone.
Zach Ertz suffered a concussion during past Sunday's game, and
historically, concussions have sidelined players throughout the
NFL for at least one additional game this season. The matchup
against the Eagles isn't ideal for Ertz's return, as they've allowed
the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends.
However, there's some precedent for optimism; in Week 11 when
these teams last met, Ertz managed six receptions for 47 yards
and a touchdown. Despite this, given his recent injury and the
Eagles' defense against tight ends, it's wise for fantasy managers
to secure another tight end on their roster. This precaution will
ensure they have an alternative to pivot to if Ertz is listed
as inactive on Sunday.
Cooper Kupp was undoubtedly one of the biggest disappointments
for fantasy football managers in Week 15, failing to catch a single
pass while only seeing three targets in the Rams' win against
the 49ers. This was Kupp's first catchless game of the season,
and what made it even more troubling was that there was no apparent
injury affecting his performance. Meanwhile, his teammate, Puka
Nacua, managed to catch seven passes for 97 yards in the same
game. It’s true, that the poor weather conditions might
have contributed to this outcome, so Kupp will probably be back
in most Week 16 lineups.
However, this marks the second subpar performance from Kupp in
the last three weeks, casting a shadow on his otherwise stellar
track record. Historically known for his consistency, Kupp had
delivered 15 or more PPR fantasy points in seven out of the first
eight games in 2024. While there's optimism that he can recover
his form, the Week 16 matchup against the New York Jets is less
than ideal. The Jets have one of the stingiest defenses against
wide receivers, allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the
position this season, which could pose a significant challenge
for Kupp's fantasy prospects.
The Los Angeles Rams have secured victory in four of their last
five games, with quarterback Matthew Stafford playing a significant
role in their recent success, aside from the challenging weather
conditions during their last game against the 49ers. Before Week
15, Stafford had been in fine form, tossing 10 touchdowns over
the four previous games, suggesting that the poor performance
in the rain was an anomaly rather than a trend.
However, it's worth noting that in four out of his last five
games, Stafford has thrown the ball 30 times or fewer, with the
exception being a loss to the Eagles where he attempted 36 passes.
This trend indicates a conservative approach to passing, which,
given Stafford's limited mobility, necessitates him throwing multiple
touchdown passes to be considered a viable fantasy starter.
Looking ahead to Week 16, Stafford faces a stern test against
the New York Jets, who have been one of the league's stingiest
defenses against the pass, allowing only 13 touchdown passes all
season, tied for the fewest in the NFL. Additionally, no quarterback
has managed to throw more than two touchdown passes against them
this year, and only one has surpassed 300 passing yards. This
matchup does not bode well for an efficient or high-scoring game
for Stafford, increasing the likelihood that he will not meet
fantasy expectations, especially on the road in a cold-weather
game.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Breece Hall missed Week 14 due to a knee injury but returned
in Week 15, making an impact with 51 yards and a touchdown on
just 11 touches. With Braelon Allen (back) potentially sidelined
or limited due to injury in Week 16, Hall's workload is expected
to increase again here in Week 16. This gives him a much higher
upside potential in the Jets' offense which has been playing better
as of late.
The matchup against the Rams presents an interesting scenario.
While the Rams have recently managed to keep Isaac Guerendo and
James Cook in check, they struggled significantly in the two weeks
prior, conceding big games to Saquon Barkley and Alvin Kamara,
both of whom share a similar playing style with Hall. This suggests
that if Hall can capitalize on the opportunities given, he might
replicate the success of Barkley and Kamara, especially with an
increased number of touches.
Garrett Wilson has settled into the role of WR2 for the Jets
since Davante Adams joined the team. Since Adams's arrival, Wilson
has only managed to score one touchdown across eight games and
hasn't seen more than 10 targets in any single game. His performance
in the most recent game against the Jaguars, where he received
just six targets despite the team scoring 30 points, matched his
season low. This indicates that even on days when the offense
is performing well, Wilson's target share and involvement near
the end zone are limited.
Despite this, Wilson remains a talented player with a consistent
enough target share to be considered a must-start in most fantasy
lineups. However, his ceiling appears to be capped a bit, positioning
him as a high-end WR2 rather than a breakout WR1 star, especially
with Adams commanding a significant portion of the attention from
opposing defenses and the quarterback.
Aaron Rodgers delivered a performance in Week 15 against the
Jaguars that must have brought tears of joy to those who had high
expectations when he joined the Jets before the 2023 season. He
threw for 289 yards and three touchdowns, complemented by an atypical
45 rushing yards. While it's not realistic to expect such mobility
from Rodgers going forward, his efficiency in throwing touchdowns
is what fantasy managers are looking for, especially during the
playoffs.
In Superflex leagues, Rodgers stands as a viable QB2 option,
particularly against the Los Angeles Rams, who have been relatively
lenient, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks
this season. However, there's a caveat to his fantasy appeal:
Rodgers lacks the high ceiling to be considered a true game-changer.
He has only once surpassed 300 passing yards this season, and
although he's thrown multiple touchdowns in five of his last seven
games, his top-10 finish at his position in Week 15 was a first
for 2024. This suggests that while Rodgers can provide a solid
floor, his potential for explosive performances is limited, making
him a steady QB2, but not a spectacular choice as a QB1 for fantasy
lineups.
Sam Darnold brings 10 multi-touchdown passing games – more than
he had during his entire career with the troubled Jets franchise
– into week 16 for the Vikings. Darnold’s emergent season has
seen him flash a high ceiling, combining for 3 or more touchdowns
in five separate games, and with T.J. Hockenson back in the Vikings
fold, Darnold has tossed for over 300 yards in two of his last
four outings. He’s an easy QB1 against Seattle.
Wide receiver Jordan Addison has come to life since the return
of Hockenson – perhaps contrary to some expectations. Hockenson’s
abilities to call attention to himself over the middle and underneath
has taken some of the top off of the coverage that Addison has
faced, helping lead to a pair of 130-yard performances and 6 touchdowns
over the last seven games. After only seeing 5 or more targets
once over the first eight weeks, Addison has seen at least 5 in
every game since. He’s averaging a whopping 15.7 fantasy
points per game during that span.
While Addison has been riding hot and some of that cannot be
expected to sustain, there’s little question that he’s
received a serious boost with defenses spread thin and he makes
a quality WR2 in Week 16.
Aaron Jones comes into Week 16 ranked 18th among RB’s in
FPts/G with 13.7, and he’ll draw a Seahawks team that has
improved against the run since a mid-season upgrade to their linebacker
corps. Jones continues to be a highly efficient back, posting
4.6 yards per rush and 8.3 yards per catch, while producing 7
combined touchdowns. In an offense that is commanding so many
responsibilities out of the opposing defense, there are a lot
of ways for the versatile Jones to walk away with another solid
RB2 day.
Since tight end T.J. Hockenson returned from a year-long injury
seven weeks ago, he has averaged just over 6 targets per game,
and had at least 5 targets in five of those games. His 74% catch
rate is near his career high of 75%, achieved just a year ago,
an encouraging fact towards his long-term prospects. His 8.2 yards
per target would also be a career high, if the season was at its
finish today.
Aside for a steady but somewhat reduced target volume since return,
what Hockenson has really been missing is red zone action –
he’s yet to score a touchdown this season. The floor has
been respectable, and it’s only a matter of time before
he does find the end zone and enjoys more of a ceiling. Still,
with a lot of mouths to feed and Hockenson never being a big touchdown
producer (6 is his career high), those touchdowns may only come
from time to time. As such, he’s a borderline TE1 against
the Seahawks.
Fade: N/A
MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24
Jaxon Smith-Njigba cashed in on Geno Smith’s desire to avoid
Jaire Alexander and walked away with a 10-83-0 day on 12 targets
last week. After the 13.3-point performance, Smith-Njigba is now
WR18 in FPts/G, continuing to rise as fellow teammate DK Metcalf
(currently WR31) has taken a sharp fall. Metcalf only saw 3 targets,
catching them all for 28 yards. This game can largely be dismissed
due to the matchup, but Metcalf has now failed to reach double-digit
fantasy points in four-straight games.
Good news for Metcalf and JSN alike is that the Vikings defense
prides itself on takeaways, but not so much on preventing yardage.
That’s reasonably an understatement, as no other team has
allowed more receptions, receiving yards and fantasy points per
game to opposing receivers than the Vikings. Expect Jaxon Smith-Njigba
to keep rolling and Metcalf to get back on track this week. JSN
flirts with WR1 status, and Metcalf should be a strong WR2 play.
Walker looks poised to return in Week 16, with his practice ramping
up on Wednesday and Thursday. He’ll return with the unenviable
task of facing the league’s second toughest defense against opposing
backs. Walker, in the Top 12 in FPts/G out of the backfield, is
on the fence not because he shouldn’t be in your lineup, but because
expectations should be tempered against Minnesota. He’s more of
a RB2 than a RB1 this week, though if Zach Charbonnet were to
be inactive that would inch him closer to the RB1 conversation.
Quarterback Geno Smith has kept a near 1:1 ratio between his
touchdowns and interceptions all season – currently with
14 passing touchdowns and 13 interceptions – and will face
a defense that has made its bread-and-butter off of doing the
same, allowing 19 touchdown tosses against 20 picks. The frequency
at which the Vikings have made quarterbacks pay for mistakes,
coupled with the fact that they have been good at limited QB rushing
production (just 146 rushing yards allowed), greatly threatens
Geno’s day. He’s currently slipped to QB16 in FPts/G,
and against the Vikings defense is no more than a mid QB2.
After a couple of significant fantasy performances from Charbonnet,
he appears headed back to change-of-pace duties, and that’s
if he is even active. He’s currently dealing with an oblique
injury and practicing on a limited basis. Against a Vikings defense
that is stingy and with his action likely being limited, it’s
time for Charbonnet to head back to your bench with a pat on the
back for helping get your team this far.
Since becoming the starting quarterback for the Patriots, Drake
Maye has averaged nearly 40 rushing yards per game, adding a valuable
dimension to his fantasy football profile. However, his passing
stats have been less impressive, with no games above 300 passing
yards and only three starts where he threw multiple touchdown
passes. Despite this, Maye has managed to maintain a steady floor
as a mid-range QB2, even when playing against opposing teams that
themselves don’t score many points.
The upcoming matchup against the Bills presents a unique challenge
and opportunity for Maye. The Bills boast one of the strongest
offenses in the league this season, led by potential MVP Josh
Allen, suggesting they could score early and often. This scenario
would likely push the Patriots to increase their passing attempts,
potentially raising both Maye's ceiling and floor in fantasy football.
While this might lead to more risky plays, the increased volume
could be beneficial for fantasy managers looking for a breakout
performance from the rookie.
The Bills' defense has shown vulnerability against quarterbacks
recently, allowing 14 passing touchdowns over their last six games
while only picking off five passes. Additionally, against mobile
quarterbacks like Kyler Murray and Lamar Jackson, they've had
difficulties, with both players rushing for 57 yards in their
respective games against Buffalo. This suggests Maye could exploit
these weaknesses both through the air and on the ground.
Kayshon Boutte has emerged as the leading wide receiver for the
New England Patriots, having played at least 83 percent of the
team's offensive snaps in nine consecutive games. Although his
snap count is high, his fantasy production has been modest, with
only one game this season where he surpassed double-digit points
in PPR leagues. This can be attributed to the Patriots often facing
teams with low-scoring offenses, thus reducing the necessity for
extensive passing plays.
However, this week's matchup against the Buffalo Bills presents
an intriguing opportunity for Boutte. The Bills' secondary has
been weak recently, including allowing five passing touchdowns
against the Lions this past week. Given this vulnerability, and
considering the game might turn into a blowout where the Patriots
need to pass more to keep up, Boutte could be an interesting addition
to fantasy lineups. He might not be a "smash play,"
but this game against Buffalo offers one of the best scenarios
for Boutte to potentially elevate his fantasy output.
Rhamondre Stevenson has been the most useful performer in the
New England Patriots' offense this season, yet his performance
has been marked by inconsistency, with very few high-scoring fantasy
outings to reward his managers. Over the past five games, Stevenson
has not reached 13 PPR fantasy points, with four of those games
ending in Patriots losses, and he hasn’t scored a touchdown
during this stretch. His involvement in the passing game has also
been minimal, catching just nine passes in these five games, even
when game situations would typically favor short, dump-off receptions
for a player like Stevenson.
While Stevenson maintains a floor with nearly 18 touches per
game, this hasn't translated into significant fantasy value. The
matchup against the Bills might look promising on paper, given
that the Bills have allowed the second-most fantasy points per
game to running backs this season. However, much of that production
has been through the passing game, an area where Stevenson has
been less impactful this year.
Although fantasy managers might find themselves with limited
options, leading them to start Stevenson, it's important to temper
expectations. This game may not be the straightforward positive
matchup it seems, considering the Patriots' struggling offense,
which has difficulty scoring, might not be able to lean heavily
on their run game.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13
Khalil Shakir has epitomized the idea of consistent fantasy football
performance in 2024, securing his place as a reliable WR2. He's
managed to score double-digit PPR fantasy points in all but two
of his starts this season, even though he’s provided just
one game where he exceeded 20 points. This consistency has made
him a valuable asset in fantasy lineups, offering a steady output
without the dramatic highs and lows that can come with most other
wide receivers.
Shakir's role in the Buffalo Bills' offense has grown significantly
as of late, evidenced by his streak of receiving at least seven
targets in eight consecutive games since Week 7. He's become the
go-to receiver for Josh Allen, establishing a strong rapport that
makes him a key component of the Bills’ passing game. Even
though the upcoming matchup with the New England Patriots might
result in a blowout, potentially reducing the number of pass attempts
for Allen, there's little doubt that Shakir will continue to see
enough targets to maintain his role as a solid PPR WR2. His steady
involvement in the offense ensures he remains a dependable option
for fantasy managers.
Dalton Kincaid has been a huge letdown for fantasy football managers
this season, delivering only three double-digit PPR performances.
Despite this, his return in Week 15 showed some promise, even
though he played less than 50% of the snaps and was out-snapped
by teammate Dawson Knox. Kincaid still managed to receive seven
targets, though, indicating he remains part of the Bills' passing
game plan.
With the expectation that he'll see increased playing time this
week, Kincaid presents some interesting potential against New
England. The Patriots' defense has recently struggled against
tight ends, allowing performances like Trey McBride's nine catches
for 87 yards in Week 15 and Jonnu Smith's similar stat line of
nine receptions for 87 yards with a touchdown in Week 12. This
matchup could provide Kincaid with the opportunity to bounce back
and offer some fantasy value when his managers need it most.
Amari Cooper's performance since joining the Buffalo Bills has
been a rollercoaster for fantasy managers, culminating in what
felt like an April Fool's surprise this past week. After a relatively
quiet period since his arrival in Week 7, Cooper finally saw an
alpha-like opportunity in Week 14 when he was targeted 14 times
against the Rams, signaling to many that he might finally be breaking
out in Buffalo's offense. This led to optimism and fantasy managers
starting him in Week 15, coinciding with the start of many leagues'
fantasy playoffs.
However, the reality was far from what was hoped for. Cooper,
despite playing his usual roughly 50 percent of snaps, was not
targeted once in a game where Josh Allen threw for 362 yards on
34 attempts in a 48-point day for the Bills. This unexpected outcome
raises serious questions about Cooper's role and fantasy value
within the Bills' offensive scheme. If Buffalo can achieve such
a high-scoring game without involving Cooper at all, it challenges
the notion of what his utility in this system really is.
Wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. has not been just a top rookie
receiver in 2024, but he’s produced at a high-end WR2 level,
period. The Raiders handle opposing receivers pretty well, but
they are not elite. Their pass defense has been aided by teams
having the luxury to play safe against them – as was demonstrated
by the Falcons last week – but that is not a luxury that
the struggling Jaguars are likely to have. Expect Thomas to be
a feature in the game plan, as usual, and he should make a sound
WR2 against Las Vegas.
With Evan Engram out for the season, Brenton Strange stepped
up and became the check down option de jure for quarterback Mac
Jones last week. Strange gathered in 11 receptions on 12 targets,
producing 73 yards. While this stands to be a bit of an outlier
performance, Strange was involved in the offense earlier in the
season when Engram was previously injured. In four games sans
Engram during September and early October, Strange scored at least
8 fantasy points in three of those games – scoring a touchdown
in two.
Strange is a considerable prospect – he was taken in the
2nd round of the NFL draft this year – so there is some
merit to him being able to continue to flirt with Top 12 tight
end status in this offense. Keep an eye on the injury reports,
as he’s practicing in a limited fashion as of Thursday,
but the Raiders, gutted by opposing tight ends this year, give
him mid-tier TE1 potential in Week 16.
Travis Etienne edged out Tank Bigsby in touches last week (14
to 12), but it was Bigsby not just edging him out, but dominating
touches the week before (19 to 8). Etienne offers more in the
passing game (33 receptions to 5), while Bigsby seems to be the
preferred rusher and especially around the goal line (5 rushing
touchdowns to 2).
With the hard to predict manner in which both backs are used
and the limits of the offense, neither makes a particularly safe
or strong flex play. In one of the few games where the Jaguars
have a reasonable chance to be in the lead this one seemingly
leans more Bigsby’s way, with him being more of a RB3 and
Etienne being more of a RB4 against the Raiders.
Despite some preseason buzz, Mac Jones has offered little spark
to the Jaguars offense since taking over for an injured Trevor
Lawrence. For the 2nd consecutive season, he has thrown more interceptions
(7) than touchdowns (4). His 6.1 yards per attempt also mirrors
his production in New England a year ago. The Raiders have been
somewhat friendly to opposing QB’s (9th most points allowed),
but Jones lacks the abilities to take advantage of it with this
roster.
JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
Jakobi Meyers was active and involved last week, following a
limited practice week (5-59-0 on 9 targets). He’s practicing
in a limited fashion again this week, and appears likely to play.
If he does, he’s a must start against a Jaguars defense
that’s had zero answers on defense last week against the
Jets, and has given up the 3rd most points to opposing wide receivers.
Sincere McCormick went on IR this week, once against moving Alexander
Mattison back into defacto RB1 status for the Raiders. This is
not an exciting position to be in, and generally one fantasy owners
should avoid at all cost. But with Mattison’s best value – for
what it’s worth - coming around the goal line (team high 3 rushing
touchdowns) and drawing a Jaguars defense that has bled touchdowns
to opposing backs (17), he is worth consideration as a backend
flex option for shorthanded managers.
Aidan O’Connell is set to return from injury and make the
start for the Raiders in Week 16. It’s been rare for Raiders
quarterbacks – either due to getting injured or benched
– to finish games they start, or have productive fantasy
days. Even with O’Connell drawing the Jaguars, he’s
well outside of the conversation in most leagues. If you are in
a Superflex league and needing a Hail Mary, that might be the
one scenario to call on him. Otherwise, steering clear seems best.
Despite the San Francisco 49ers' lackluster offensive performance
in Week 15, rookie running back Isaac Guerendo managed to salvage
a decent outing with 16 carries for 57 yards and four receptions
for 18 yards in a losing effort against the Rams. San Francisco
will again reach in their RB bag to pull out another option as
Guerendo will miss this game with a hamstring injury. Patrick
Taylor is up next.
The 49ers are up against a Miami Dolphins defense that has been
solid against the run this year, with no running back surpassing
100 rushing yards against them thus far in 2024. Moreover, the
Dolphins have been stingy in the red zone, allowing just two rushing
touchdowns to running backs in their last seven games. This suggests
a challenging environment for Taylor to thrive.
Taylor should be involved in both the rushing and receiving game
and could manage to have a serviceable fantasy performance, even
in a tough matchup. Fantasy managers should temper expectations
but recognize Taylor's potential for a respectable output based
on his usage in this Shanahan rushing attack.
The San Francisco 49ers' passing game has been underwhelming
recently, with quarterback Brock Purdy managing only three touchdown
passes in his last four games and not exceeding two scores in
a game since all the way back in Week 6. Purdy's mobility does
contribute to his fantasy value, but it hasn't been enough to
compensate for his recent lack of passing touchdowns. He's also
failed to surpass 160 passing yards in three of his past four
games, making him a risky start against a formidable Miami defense,
which has been the toughest in the league against quarterbacks
this season.
Brock Purdy’s recent slump has affected the entire 49ers
offense, but one player who’s really struggled is wide receiver
Deebo Samuel. Despite his vocal desire for more involvement in
the passing game, Samuel has failed to reach even 25 receiving
yards in any his past five games and he’s still only scored
one touchdown all season. Samuel’s unique contribution to
fantasy football has typically included a mix of receptions and
carries, providing a generally reliable floor. However, he's only
had nine carries over these five games, significantly diminishing
his fantasy appeal. Facing a strong Miami defense, Samuel is currently
a player to steer clear of in fantasy lineups until the 49ers'
offense shows signs of improvement.
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Tyreek Hill's 2024 season has been a source of frustration for
many fantasy football managers, culminating in a disappointing
five-point performance against the Texans this past week. Hill
managed to catch only two of his seven targets, marking his sixth
single-digit PPR point game of the season. Despite his consistent
snap count and being the most effective receiver on the Miami
roster, the emergence of tight end Jonnu Smith has somewhat diluted
the target share for Hill and teammate Jaylen Waddle.
While Hill might not be the automatic must-start he once was,
his role in the offense still makes him a valuable asset, positioning
him as a high-to-mid-level WR2 rather than the elite WR1 he was
previously considered. Fantasy managers might not have many better
options to replace him, but they should temper their expectations.
Hill's performance has been inconsistent enough to warrant caution,
especially against a defense like the 49ers that does a great
job of containing opposing wide receivers.
Jaylen Waddle has been one of the most frustrating players for
fantasy football managers this season, and his performance against
the Texans only added to the despair. He was held without a catch
on just two targets before being forced out of the game with a
knee injury. This came on the heels of a promising Week 14 where
he received a season-high 12 targets against the Jets.
Now listed as questionable for the upcoming game against the
San Francisco 49ers, Waddle's already uncertain fantasy value
is further complicated. The matchup doesn't favor him either,
as the 49ers defense has been one of the stingiest against wide
receivers, allowing the third-fewest fantasy points to the position
this year. Given his injury concerns and the challenging defensive
matchup, Waddle appears to be a player that fantasy managers should
be avoiding for this crucial playoff week.
As has been the case for much of the season, Bucky Irving shared
an equal number of carries with Rachaad White in the Buccaneers'
impressive victory over the Chargers this past week. Irving showcased
his superiority on the ground by nearly doubling White's rushing
yardage on his 15 carries. Although White caught a touchdown pass
to close the gap in fantasy points, Irving still appeared to be
the more effective player of the two. Perhaps most importantly,
Irving's performance was not hindered by his hip and back injuries,
indicating he should be ready for the upcoming game against the
Cowboys.
Dallas has been generous to opposing running backs, allowing
the eighth-most fantasy points to the position this season. This
matchup positions Irving as a strong candidate for delivering
solid RB2 numbers, with the upside to reach RB1 status if he manages
to score a touchdown. His effectiveness and the favorable matchup
make him an attractive option for fantasy managers looking for
consistent production from a running back.
Baker Mayfield has significantly exceeded expectations this season
and he’ll look to keep up the pace this week against the
Cowboys. This past week he threw for 288 yards and four touchdowns,
complemented by 25 rushing yards, against a good Chargers defense.
Mayfield has emerged as a surprising top-five fantasy quarterback,
and there's nothing suggesting that his performances will dip
going forward. Heading into Week 16, Mayfield faces a Cowboys
defense that has been one of the most generous to opposing quarterbacks,
giving up the fourth-most fantasy points in 2024, setting the
stage for another potentially high-scoring game for Mayfield and
his receivers.
Rachaad White, while sharing the backfield duties, remains a
consistent fantasy contributor, particularly due to his involvement
in the Bucs’ passing game. With 43 receptions including
six touchdowns, but his overall usage ensures he's a reliable
fantasy option even if his 4.2 yards per carry might not dazzle.
His matchup this week against the Cowboys, who've had defensive
struggles, is promising for another solid performance.
The Tampa Bay offense has been streamlined, enhancing the fantasy
output of its key players. Since Chris Godwin's injury, the search
for a reliable WR2 might have now ended with Jalen McMillan. The
rookie has shown signs of becoming an important part of the offense,
with nine catches for 174 yards and three touchdowns in his last
two games. He's been targeted 13 times over this period, and although
his long-term role isn't fully established, he's played a substantial
number of snaps in his recent starts. McMillan isn't a must-start
in all leagues, but for those in need of a wide receiver and where
he's available, he represents an intriguing option.
The expectation was that Cade Otton would see an uptick in involvement
following Chris Godwin's season-ending injury, but this hasn't
materialized for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' tight end. Otton enjoyed
a period of high usage from Weeks 7 to 10, where he was targeted
39 times. However, post-bye week, his targets have significantly
dropped, with only 17 targets over the last four games. This decline
seems partly due to the emergence of rookie wide receiver Jalen
McMillan. In the most recent game against the Chargers, Otton
received just three targets, his fewest since Week 2.
While there's always the possibility of Otton finding the end
zone in a potentially high-scoring affair against the Cowboys,
his current target share suggests he might not be the most reliable
fantasy option at tight end. Fantasy managers might want to explore
the waiver wire for tight ends with more consistent or higher
potential output for this week.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Despite a challenging season for the Dallas Cowboys, running
back Rico Dowdle has emerged as a standout performer, particularly
over the past month. Dowdle has accumulated 478 rushing yards
over his past four games, including three consecutive 100-yard
rushing days. While he's only scored one touchdown and caught
seven passes during this period, his consistent yardage makes
him a dependable fantasy asset, especially against the bad defenses
he’s faced.
This week, Dowdle faces the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who rank around
the middle of the pack in defending running backs but have recently
tightened up against the run, with only Sincere McCormick from
Las Vegas managing to rush for more than 40 yards against them
over their past five games. Given the Cowboys' need to maintain
competitiveness by controlling the clock and the game's pace,
expect Dowdle to be heavily involved from the start. His role
has become central to the Cowboys' offensive strategy, second
only to CeeDee Lamb, making him a relatively safe bet as an RB2
in fantasy lineups.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers' offense has been surprisingly potent
this year, often putting teams in a position where they must throw
the ball frequently to catch up. As a result, the Buccaneers'
defense has faced the third-highest number of pass attempts in
the league, surpassed only by the Vikings and Ravens, leading
to them conceding the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
Cooper Rush had his best fantasy outing of the season in Week
15, achieving his first three-touchdown performance of 2024. While
Rush is far from a top-level quarterback, his recent performance
combined with this favorable matchup makes him an intriguing option
for fantasy managers looking for upside on the waiver wire. The
potential for the Cowboys to fall behind early could lead to an
unusually high volume of pass attempts for Rush, although his
inconsistency, as evidenced by his poor showing against the Eagles
in Week 10, means he could also deliver a disappointing performance.
However, for those in need of a quarterback with the potential
for a high ceiling, Rush could be worth the risk this week.
Since returning from injury, Jake Ferguson has been targeted
just 10 times over his last two games, and his playing time has
decreased compared to where it was before the injury. Previously,
he was the clear TE1 for the Dallas Cowboys, but now he faces
some competition from Luke Schoonmaker, which has affected his
fantasy relevance. Ferguson has yet to score a touchdown this
season and has been limited to under 35 receiving yards in six
of his last seven starts. Even with the possibility of increased
passing attempts in the Cowboys' offense, there isn't much optimism
around Ferguson being a strong fantasy play at the moment.
Word is Alvin Kamara (groin) won’t play Monday and may be done
for the year. Derek Carr (concussion, hand) is likely done as
well. Chris Olave (concussion), Rashid Shaheed (knee), and Taysom
Hill (knee) are all on IR and won’t return. The Saints will start
rookie Spencer Rattler, who helped rally the team in the second
half against Washington but still completed just 10 of his 21
passes. He’ll be careful with the ball, and the team will try
to lean on Miller, who ran nine times for a team-best 46 yards
last week. Miller has spent much of his young career on IR, but
this is a huge opportunity for him to carve his name into the
team’s plans going forward. He should also be fresh with just
30 total touches on his 2024 odometer. Even though the Packers
have been stout against the run in recent weeks, Miller offers
good potential from your flex slot.
Over his last five games with the Saints, Valdes-Scantling has
racked up 347 yards and four touchdowns. He’s a legit downfield
threat, and his explosive ability gives him a shot to deliver
fantasy value even with the inexperienced Rattler under center
-- in other words, he only needs a couple of receptions to do
damage. MVS is also very familiar with the Packers, having played
his first four seasons in Green Bay. While the defensive scheme
has changed, you know he’ll be motivated in his return to
Titletown. The caveat here is that MVS has missed practice this
week due to a chest injury. With this being the final game of
Week 16, you can’t pencil in MVS as a flier if there’s
even a chance he won’t suit up. So, keep an eye out for
the final injury report for his status. Even if he’s listed
as questionable, you’re better off finding someone else
for your lineup.
Fade: N/A
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
In a lot of ways, Watson is the player the Packers hoped Valdes-Scantling
would be. After battling injuries much of his first two seasons,
the speedy wideout has stayed on the field most of 2024 and has
been coming on of late. Last Sunday in Seattle, Watson finished
with three catches for 56 yards, making him the team leader in
receiving yards for the third time in the last five games. That
stretch includes two 100-plus-yard games. It also includes a shutout,
however, and Watson hasn’t scored since Oct. 13. That may
not change against the Saints, which rank 28th in passing yards
allowed but only two teams have given up fewer TD passes. Still,
on a night when the Packers might be judicious with their number
of pass attempts, Watson’s ability to deliver solid stats
in limited opportunities makes him a worthwhile bet as your WR3.
Despite middling numbers in both receptions (41) and yards (555),
Kraft has managed to deliver respectable fantasy value more weeks
than not. For example, prior to his 2-34-0 effort in Seattle last
Sunday night, the second-year tight end had scored in Weeks 12
and 14 while catching six passes for 78 yards in Week 13. There
wasn’t a great game in the bunch, but all three were solid. His
toughness and work in the intermediate passing attack seem like
nice fits against the Saints this Monday with cold conditions
and possibly snow falling. You never know with the Packers offense,
though, as any one of Kraft, Watson, Jayden Reed, or Romeo Doubs
can end up leading the team any given week. Against the 28th-ranked
pass defense, though, Kraft certainly has TE1 upside.
If you believe in advanced metrics, and what those around the
team are saying, then Love is playing the best ball of his young
career. While that could well be true, the numbers have been mediocre.
In five games since returning from the Bye, Love is averaging
227 yards per game with eight passing TDs, one rushing TD, and
zero interceptions. Green Bay has adopted a more physical, ground-heavy
approach in the red zone, and it has paid off for the team. It’s
frustrating because you see Love hit big plays, but in three of
the last five games he’s finished with 13 completions or
fewer. It’s like Jalen Hurts without the running. On paper,
this is a solid matchup for Love, but given the recent trends,
he’s a tough sell for a QB1 slot.
