In Week 14, many expected the nearly airtight Bills pass defense
would halt Matthew Stafford’s QB1-level run. That proved
to be anything but the case. Stafford provided the 9th best performance
among quarterbacks, tossing for 320 yards and 2 scores against
Buffalo. This week, he draws a good but not elite 49ers defense
and Stafford’s unrelenting production since the return of
his pair of ace receivers has him as a backend QB1.
It does appear that Kupp is 1B to Puka’s 1A, especially
with the latter’s involvement in the run game. But (just
barely) playing second fiddle to Nacua in this offense is hardly
a set of chains around the agile legs of Kupp. 92 yards and another
touchdown – his 6th of an abbreviated season – provided
a strong bounce back from an unusually quiet Week 13 for the veteran
star receiver. Kupp, as usual, is a must start against the 49ers.
Over the last two weeks, Corum has finally begun to see some
notable action for Rams. A second consecutive performance with
8 carries (34 yards) suggests that Corum’s needle is finally
beginning to point up. Still, Kyren Williams handled 29 carries
last week and there’s no reason to expect Corum to provide
reliable fantasy value at this time (32% and 17% snap rates the
last two games). Those who have Williams may want to stash Corum
as injury insurance if they haven’t already and he’s
available.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
12th among quarterbacks in fantasy points and 8th in FPts/G,
Brock Purdy faces a Rams defense that had been difficult against
opposing quarterbacks recently until Josh Allen became the first
QB in NFL history to both throw and run for 3 touchdowns in the
same game. For the year, the Rams have surrendered to opposing
quarterbacks the 8th most passing yards and 10th most rushing
yards. Purdy has found success in both manners, being 12th in
passing yards and 10th in rushing among quarterbacks.
The one sizable caution with Purdy this week is that he’ll
again be without legendary offensive tackle Trent Williams. His
325-yard, 2 touchdown performance against Chicago was his first
QB1-worthy performance without Williams active in four tries.
In four career starts sans Williams, Purdy has not been called
to attempt more than 31 passes, and despite last week’s
strong performance against the Bears, has thrown just 4 touchdowns
against 4 interceptions. Nonetheless, a backfield that continues
to get thinner will likely have Purdy airing it out and keep him
in the QB1 conversation.
Jauan Jennings had his 2nd multiple touchdown performance of
the season last week. He continues to have a streaky but strong
season that offers a 20-point ceiling at any given moment, even
against a tough Bears defense in Week 14. The Rams carry a better
bet for a blow-up performance, especially in a game that carries
potential of a back-and-forth affair, giving up the 9th most points
and the 3rd most touchdowns in the league to opposing wide receivers.
Jennings makes for a high-end WR2 play this week.
Wide receiver Deebo Samuel’s performance fell into a sharp
decline just a couple of a weeks after the bizarre “pneumonia
game”, where he barely saw the field and ended up in the
hospital. For the fourth-straight game, he failed to top 22 yards
receiving and only produced 35 total yards.
If there was a silver lining, it’s that Samuel saw his first
action as a runner in three weeks, and his most significant action
in a month, receiving 5 carries. He only produced 13 total yards
on those carries, but it appears that the thinning 49ers backfield
is going to push him into more opportunities. If the RB room gets
even thinner on Thursday, it’s possible that Deebo sees a 30-50%
share of the carries. Samuel carries boom/bust flex status on
Thursday night, and that ceiling only grows if the 49ers top back
is Patrick Taylor.
Running back Iaac Guerendo followed a Tuesday DNP with a limited
practice on Wednesday, improving the odds he’ll play on
Thursday night against the Rams. Still, his status is very much
up in the air. If Guerendo does play, there is the added risk
of him re-aggravating his injury, but his ability to make big
plays in this offense, including gains of 30, 27 and 23 yards
last week, plus 2 scores, give him an RB1 ceiling, and a must
start.
If, on the other hand, Guerendo doesn’t play, Patrick Taylor
would be the next man up. The 49ers also signed running back Israel
Abanikanda off of waivers, and he would likely see limited action
behind Taylor. Taylor, a former Packer who went undrafted out
of college, has just a 3.9 career rushing average on 79 rushes
and a 5.4 receiving average on 15 receptions in four seasons.
His best attributes are his size (6’2 217lbs.) and his apparent
ability to protect the ball – he has yet to fumble in his limited
career. He can’t be expected to supply the explosiveness of Guerendo
nor the powerful stiff arm of Jordan Mason and is unlikely to
offer significant contributions as a receiver in the passing game.
As such, he’s likely to be volume and/or goal line dependent
for success against the Rams. He has fantasy value should be regarded
as more of a flex if he gets the start.
Wide receiver Ricky Pearsall hasn’t been heard from much
since both Deebo Samuel and Jauan Jennings have been back on the
field, compiling just 9 targets over the last month and 3 targets
over the last three weeks. His snap rates were holding up despite
the lack of targets until last week, when he fell from a 73% snap
rate to a 49% snap rate. The 49ers being well in control of the
game had something to do with that but while Pearsall has a future
with the 49ers, his present has him far down the target tree and
on the sideline far too often in positive game script. Pearsall
is safest on your bench or the wire.
Rico Dowdle has successfully completed his takeover of the Dallas
backfield. Across the last three weeks, Dowdle has played 70.2
percent of snaps and handled a staggering 84.8 percent of the
backfield opportunities. This is full-blown bell cow status.
Dowdle has also proven to be able to take advantage of weak rushing
defenses, combining for 243 rushing yards and 36.4 PPR points
against the Giants and Bengals over the last two weeks. He’ll
have the opportunity to take on the Panthers this week, who allow
the most points per game to opposing running backs and come in
as the No. 32 rushing defense by a wide margin. Dowdle crossing
the century mark for a third straight week wouldn’t be terribly
shocking.
Jake Ferguson returned after a two-game absence (concussion)
and assumed TE1 duties right away. He ran a route on 74.3 percent
of dropbacks and drew 19.4 percent of the targets. Ferguson immediately
reclaimed his role as the No. 2 pass catcher in Dallas and won’t
relinquish that role for the rest of the season. The Panthers
rank dead last in scoring defense, so there should be plenty of
opportunities for Ferguson to draw a target near the goal line.
Ferguson’s role as a primary pass catcher in Dallas, combined
with the outlook for the Cowboys’ offense as a whole, makes him
a strong TE1 option this week.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
Similar to Jake Ferguson, Adam Thielen has returned to his respective
offense and immediately reclaimed his place within the offense.
Thielen is right back in the high-volume role that allowed him
to be so productive last season. The quality play of Bryce Young
in recent weeks has also helped him out.
Thielen has accounted for 26.3 percent of the team’s targets
in the last two weeks, amassing 21 raw targets overall. Unsurprisingly,
this sort of volume has allowed Thielen to finish as the WR6 and
WR17 in these two games. Thielen will line up across from Jourdan
Lewis in the slot this week, the weakest link of the Dallas secondary.
Another day pushing for 10 receptions and 100 yards is certainly
possible for Thielen.
The return of Adam Thielen has effectively iced Xavier Leggette
from this offense. His 23.5-percent target share last week was
encouraging, but he has still not scored double-digit points since
Thielen rejoined the lineup. There are better options out there
than the unreliable production of Legette.
Back in action after more than two months on the shelf, Pacheco
logged eight touches in Kansas City’s Black Friday win over the
Raiders. Last Sunday night, he doubled that workload, turning
16 combined touches into 61 yards. Expect that trend to continue
this Sunday with Pacheco potentially pushing beyond 20 touches
as he ramps up for another postseason run. The Browns rank 22nd
against the rush, allowing 127.9 yards per game on the ground,
and there are few things more dangerous late in the season than
a talented back that’s fresh facing a team that’s just playing
out the string. Pacheco came into 2024 as a possible top-five
fantasy back, and he was expected to be the primary workhorse
after the Chiefs moved on from situational guys like Jerick McKinnon.
View Pacheco as a low-end RB2 here, but with potential for more.
Minus his top two projected receivers (Rashee Rice and Hollywood
Brown) for most of the season, Mahomes has posted middling numbers
in 2024. It looked like maybe things were starting to shift in
November, when he threw three TDs passes three times in a four-game
stretch, but in the last two games the former MVP has managed
just two TD passes combined. The yardage has been decent (258
per game), but when you’re not doing much as a runner you need
those touchdowns to deliver QB1 value. Cleveland sits 13th against
the pass (215.3 yards/game), and they’ve yet to allow more than
two TD passes in a game this season. As a fringe QB1 candidate,
Mahomes feels a bit risky.
Fade: N/A
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
If it feels like Winston is a permanent resident of the “On
the Fence” designation, there’s a reason for that:
he’s wildly unpredictable. Coming off a game in which he
passed for 497 yards, 4 TDs, and 3 INTs (two of which were returned
for TDs), Winston managed a pedestrian 212 yards, 2 TDs, and 2
INTs against the Steelers last Sunday. Before that, he followed
395 yards, 2 TDs, and 0 INTs, with 219 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT.
The one thing you can be sure of with Winston is he won’t
be marginalized, meaning he’s going to put the ball in the
air and try to push it down the field. There’s value in
that as he creates opportunities for his guys to make plays. Is
he a safe choice? No. Does he carry QB1 upside? Absolutely. For
their part, the Chiefs are missing some pieces in their secondary,
and they rank 20th in pass yards allowed (221.8 per game).
When Chubb ran 20 times, scoring twice, in Cleveland’s Thursday
night upset of the Steelers, it felt like maybe he’d turned
a corner coming off his gruesome knee injury. In two games since,
however, he’s combined for 20 carries with Ford collecting
19. There was some thought in Denver that the up-tempo, high-scoring
affair with the Broncos better matched Ford’s skill set,
but the split remained in Pittsburgh this past Sunday, a game
where the Browns would’ve loved to lean on ball control.
While nothing official has come out, it makes you wonder if Chubb
came out of that heavy usage game feeling like he couldn’t
log that many carries going forward. Whatever the case, what we’ve
seen the past two weeks is a committee. As such, fantasy owners
should adjust their expectations for Cleveland’s backfield,
viewing both Chubb and Ford as flex options.
The emergence of Jonnu Smith and De’Von Achane as pass
catchers has made it far more difficult to project the weekly
production for each weapon in Miami. But that doesn’t matter
for Tua Tagovailoa, who has been thriving lately. The Dolphins
have essentially abandoned the run over the last month, allowing
Tagovailoa to attempt 42.25 passes per game while posting a league-leading
11.9-percent PROE during this stretch. This matchup could quite
easily be a shootout and Tagovailoa should see more than enough
volume to finish as a QB1 this week.
After struggling throughout the season, we’ve seen “vintage”
Tyreek Hill over the last two weeks. He’s combined for 23
targets in these games, clearing 20.0 PPR points in both contests.
During these games, the Dolphins have seen single high safety
looks at a higher rate than they have been accustomed to throughout
the year. So it’s hard to say if Hill has simply taken advantage
of favorable schematic matchups or if he’s hitting his stride.
Either way, Hill is a player who belongs in lineups in a matchup
with two quality offenses that could turn this game into a track
meet.
Jaylen Waddle has also kicked it into high gear lately, averaging
20.2 PPR points per game over the last three weeks. What’s
particularly encouraging is that last week, Waddle was the recipient
of a good number of the quick-hitting targets that often went
to Jonnu Smith or Achane in previous weeks. Per Hayden
Winks, Waddle saw nine targets within two seconds of the ball
being snapped. It’s hard to say if this will be sticky,
but a high-volume role with quick looks would do wonders for Waddle’s
consistency. Once again, Waddle is the caliber of receiver that
belongs in starting lineups in a matchup like this.
Jonnu Smith has been one of fantasy’s pleasant surprises
this season. Smith has been fantasy’s TE1 since Miami’s
Week 6 bye and is now up to TE4 overall. He’s also managed
to remain productive amid the bounce-backs of Hill and Waddle.
Smith has drawn 26 targets across the last three weeks and finished
as the TE7 or better in each of those games. It seems that Smith
has new competition in Waddle for those quick, underneath targets,
but he’s solidified himself as an every-week starter until
further notice.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.11
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.15
Along with the Dolphins, the Texans have adopted a pass-happy
offensive approach over the last month. In fact, Houston and Miami
both have an 11.9-percent PROE since Week 11, tied for the highest
mark in the league. You’d assume a transition to a pass-heavy
philosophy would lead to better days in fantasy for C.J. Stroud.
Unfortunately, it has not.
Across the full season, Stroud has just three weekly QB1 performances,
with one of them coming in the last four weeks. He has not cleared
20 points since Week 4 and is having a hard time putting up lofty
yardage numbers and multiple touchdowns in the same game. Against
the defense that has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points
to opposing quarterbacks, Stroud won’t have the easiest
time getting back on track.
Nico Collins was limited in his first game back, but he has effectively
removed Tank Dell from the offense in the two games since. Dell
has accounted for just 11.9 percent of the team’s targets
in the last two weeks, amounting to just nine raw targets. Until
Dell shows that he can coexist with Collins or redevelop his connection
with Stroud on deep balls, he should be left on the bench.
Tee Higgins has spent much of the season in the No Brainer tier,
but after a game with five targets and 4.3 PPR points, some managers
may be second-guessing themselves. This just serves as a reminder
that Higgins belongs in lineups everywhere. Prior to last week,
Higgins had out-targeted or drawn as many targets as Ja’Marr
Chase in six straight games. He also finished as a top-10 receiver
in three of those weeks. The Bengals are the most pass-heavy team
in the NFL and Higgins has regularly played a key role in their
aerial attack. Start him without a second thought this week.
Mike Gesicki had some success while Higgins was sidelined and
there were even some rumblings that he would essentially take
over as the Bengals’ slot receiver. That hasn’t come
to fruition and Gesicki has been relegated to a part-time role,
failing to run the majority of routes in two straight weeks. His
route participation tanked to 37 percent last week; this is not
the sort of usage that can support fantasy-relevant production.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2
Tony Pollard has been taking over the Titans’ backfield in recent
weeks. Even with Tyjae Spears back in action, Pollard has played
67 percent of snaps over the Titans’ last two games. More importantly,
he’s seen 78 percent of backfield opportunities in these games.
Pollard has a firm grip on the Tennessee backfield and is a strong
RB2 option based on volume. Against Cincinnati’s No. 23 rushing
defense, Pollard can have a very productive day on the ground.
The Bengals’ secondary has also been problematic this season,
opening the door for Calvin Ridley to potentially put up some
gaudy numbers. Cincinnati’s CB1, Cam Taylor-Britt, has surrendered
the second-most receiving yards among cornerbacks this season,
per PFF. Their other starting corner, Josh Newton, has given up
111 yards in just two starts. As a team, Cincinnati has allowed
a receiver to eclipse 18.3 PPR points in six straight games. Ridley
has led the team in targets in eight of nine games since Tennessee’s
bye week and should be able to translate this volume into a solid
outing.
After ripping off touchdowns in three straight games, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine
came back down to Earth last week, scoring just 2.9 PPR points
on two targets. He has never been much of a target earner throughout
his career and that won’t be changing any time soon. Westbrook-Ikhine’s
touchdown rate and overall production were clearly unsustainable
and he does not belong in fantasy lineups.
Outside of the truly elite tight end options, few tight ends
have been as consistent as Zach Ertz. He has scored at least 12.5
PPR points in three straight games, commanding a 21-percent target
share during this stretch. Across the whole season, Ertz has cracked
double-digit fantasy points in seven of 13 games. With Noah Brown
now sidelined for the foreseeable future, we should expect to
see Ertz continuing to play a key role in the offense. He is a
low-end TE1 for the rest of the year.
If it were not for a series of lower-body injuries, Brian Robinson
Jr. may have been one of the stronger RB2 options in fantasy.
Well, he’s healthy coming off Washington’s bye and
he’s set up to smash against the Saints this week.
Robinson has been the team’s primary ball carrier this
season, handling 63 percent of the backfield’s carries in
healthy games this season. He should have no issues being productive
on the ground against the team that ranks dead last in yards allowed
per carry and allows the 6th-most points per game to opposing
running backs. Robinson could be in for a very big day this week.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: N/A
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Juwan Johnson took over as the Saints’ primary pass-catching
tight end last week, running a route on 76.5 percent of dropbacks
and drawing five targets in the process. A touchdown ultimately
lifted Johnson to 15.0 PPR points and a TE3 finish on the week.
Even if Johnson is drawing somewhere in the range of a half dozen
targets per week, it’s hard to be excited about a pass catcher
in an offense led by one of Jake Haener or Spencer Rattler.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling did something out of the ordinary last
week: he drew targets at a reasonable rate. His 22.6-percent target
share from last week was a season-high and marked his first time
seeing at least 20 percent of the targets. History would say otherwise,
but if Valdes-Scantling can continue to be a legitimate target
earner, he’ll have a much steadier floor on top of his strong
ceiling thanks to his big play ability. But then again, it remains
difficult to feel comfortable starting anyone in an offense with
Haener or Rattler under center.
Since Davante Adams joined the Jets, both he and Garrett Wilson
have been volatile fantasy assets and their production has ping-ponged
back and forth. Last week was just the second time in seven games
together that both receivers cracked double-digit PPR points in
the same game.
However, this is certainly a matchup where Aaron Rodgers can
sustain meaningful fantasy production from both receivers. The
Jaguars rank bottom-5 in yards allowed per pass play, EPA per
dropback, and fantasy points allowed to receivers. As long as
Adams and Wilson can keep the target tree condensed and each draw
20-30 percent of the targets, both can certainly get there this
week.
Breece Hall did not practice Wednesday or Thursday, indicating
that he’ll be sidelined for a second straight week. In a somewhat
surprising turn of events, the Jets used an even 50-50 split in
the absence of Hall last week. Both Braelon Allen and Isaiah Davis
played over 50 percent of snaps and each finished with 16 opportunities
in the game.
Both are viable options this week, but this projects to be a
game that favors Allen. The Jets are 3.5-point favorites and it
wouldn’t be surprising if they lean on Allen and his 6’1”,
235-pound frame to wear down the Jaguars’ front seven. The
Jaguars have also struggled to defend the run this season, ranking
28th in EPA per rush. If the Jets can maintain a lead, Allen should
see plenty of carries while maintaining high levels of efficiency
against a weak run defense.
As mentioned previously, the pure 50-50 split of this backfield
makes Isaiah Davis a viable option this week. He saw a healthy
36-percent route participation last week and he could continue
to see enough work in the receiving game to support fringe RB2
production. Ultimately, this seems like a game where the Jets
will be looking to grind it out on the ground, an offensive approach
that will likely favor Allen as opposed to Davis.
Fade: N/A
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.25
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26
Brian Thomas Jr. continues to impress with every week that passes.
Last week, he posted a 35.5-percent target share and 74.5-percent
air yards share, both career highs by a wide margin. His 74.5-percent
air yards share was the 5th-highest single-game mark from a receiver
this season.
Without Gabe Davis or Christian Kirk in the lineup, Thomas is
a weekly threat for 10-plus targets. Evan Engram did not practice
Wednesday or Thursday; if he’s unable to play, Thomas may set
some career bests yet again. Even with Mac Jones under center,
Thomas sees the volume and has the YAC skills to deliver consistent
WR2 production.
Evan Engram has not practiced to open the week, placing his Week
15 status in serious jeopardy. Even if he does play, there’s
not much of a ceiling for Engram with Mac Jones calling the shots.
Sure, Engram holds a voluminous role, but how much are eight targets
with a seven-yard aDOT really worth in this sort of offense? If
your team just needs 8-12 points to get by, Engram is a fine option.
If you need access to a legitimate ceiling, chase touchdowns in
a stronger offense.
Aside from the first month of the season, this backfield has
been a mess for fantasy purposes when both Travis Etienne and
Tank Bigsby have been healthy. Nothing was different last week,
with neither back playing more than 52 percent of snaps. Bigsby
was able to salvage his day with a touchdown, but neither was
able to get much going yardage-wise.
Last week, we did see each back take on a more defined role.
Bigsby was the primary rusher (18 carries vs. four for Etienne)
while Etienne took on the pass-catching work (17 routes vs. eight
for Bigsby). Even still, a backfield with divided responsibilities
in the league’s No. 26 scoring offense won’t lead
to reliable fantasy production.
Mark Andrews’ fantasy season hasn’t been what managers
expected it to be, but things have certainly been a lot better
recently than they were to start the year. Andrews has now managed
to score touchdowns in back-to-back games and he’s scored
seven times over the past eight weeks, reminding us that he can
still be a weekly TE1 even without a huge target share. His playing
time remains minimal, at least in comparison to what it’s
been in recent seasons, but Andrews has a chance to be a difference-maker
at the position during the fantasy playoffs. The on-paper matchup
doesn’t look great against the Giants, who have given up
the second-fewest fantasy points to the position this season,
but they’ve also faced some very lackluster opposition.
Andrews is a good bet to get into the end zone again this week
as the Ravens are big favorites on the road.
It’s tough to believe that multiple pass-catchers within
the Baltimore offense are going to have productive fantasy performances
in almost any contest, so banking on a big Zay Flowers game probably
means that we won’t get one out of Mark Andrews. Nevertheless,
Flowers has been a solid source of weekly WR2 fantasy production
despite ranging between six to 10 targets or so each week. He’s
probably not ever going to give us true week-winning potential
and this is a relatively difficult matchup against a better-than-perceived
Giants defense, so it’s worth considering other options
if you need the potential spike week performance out of your WR2
or Flex spot.
The Ravens’ decision to suspend wide receiver Diontae Johnson
for a week does create a clearer path for playing time and potential
fantasy production for Rashod Bateman, but fantasy managers would
be wise to avoid this situation as much as possible. We know that
Zay Flowers is the top target in this passing game with Mark Andrews
being the primary red zone weapon in the passing game, so Bateman
is sort of the odd man out as a low-volume player who does occasionally
make big plays. In a game that could end up being a blowout win
for the Ravens, though, he’s probably not going to see a strong
enough target number to make him a useful fantasy option in this
one.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Malik Nabers is dealing with a hip injury that has limited him
in practice early this week, but there are indications that he
is expected to be active this weekend when the Giants host the
Ravens. He’ll look to add to his impressive rookie numbers
against a Baltimore defense that has given up the third-most fantasy
points to the position here in 2024. The Ravens’ overall
numbers against wide receivers are indeed a bit skewed by their
complete inability to defend Ja’Marr Chase who completely
gashed them both times he went up against them, but Chase isn’t
the only receiver who’s produced nice fantasy numbers when
playing against this defense.
The biggest concern about Nabers right now isn’t his skill or
even his target volume, but rather the quality of the targets
he’s seeing. Passes coming from Daniel Jones were not anything
great, but they were often more catchable than what he’s been
seeing from Drew Lock and Tommy DeVito. DeVito had missed the
past two weeks but he is expected to be back on the field here
in Week 15, which could be a slight upgrade over Lock, but this
is still one of the worst quarterback rooms - if not the worst
- in all of football. Despite that, Nabers has managed to score
double-digit PPR fantasy points in six straight games, largely
due to the 11 targets per game he’s averaged over that stretch.
A competitive game this past week against the Saints meant that
the Giants were able to lean on their running game than they were
able to in their previous two games. This led to Tyrone Tracy’s
touch totals going from 13 in Week 12 and 11 in Week 13, to an
impressive 21 touches in Week 14. Game script is a big factor
for most fantasy running backs, but it seems to be a particularly
big deal for Tracy. That’s why he’s an “on-the-fence”
player this week as the Giants are 16.5-point underdogs at home
against the Ravens.
If Baltimore does get out to an early lead as the oddsmakers
seem to think they will, then Tracy’s upside becomes extremely
minimal and his floor could be even worse than what we’ve
seen in previous games. A game we could look at for comparison’s
sake would be the Week 7 matchup against the Eagles when they
took a 28-3 beating. Tracy got just six carries in that game and
while he added three receptions, it wasn’t nearly enough
to make him a worthwhile fantasy option that week.
If the Giants are able to keep the scoreboard even remotely close,
look for Tracy to see another heavy workload game. New York isn’t
equipped to go score-for-score with the Ravens, so they’ll
want to control the clock with their running game.
Wan’Dale Robinson’s early-season PPR reliability
feels like a thing of the far past at this point, as the receiver
has now averaged just over seven PPR fantasy points per game over
his past seven games. What’s even more concerning is that
Robinson failed to produce this past week against the Saints even
in a game where he was targeted 11 times - his most since he matched
that number back in Week 6. The reality is that the Giants’
passing game is essentially Malik Nabers and then a bunch of no-goes
for fantasy.
The Pittsburgh passing game definitely took a hit this past week
when they were without star wide receiver George Pickens, as Russell
Wilson saw his yards-per-attempt dip down to just 6.1 against
the Browns. Wilson did manage to deliver solid fantasy numbers,
though, in large part to his two touchdown passes. Wilson has
now thrown multiple touchdown passes in back-to-back weeks and
while he lacks the rushing upside to be a QB1 for fantasy nowadays,
he’s become a somewhat reliable QB2 for those in Superflex formats.
Running back Najee Harris has his work cut out for him as he
faces an excellent Philadelphia run defense that has conceded
the fifth-fewest fantasy points to the running back position this
season. The Eagles have not allowed a 100-yard rusher and they’ve
only conceded five total touchdowns to the position here in 2024,
so there’s not a lot to be excited about from a ceiling potential
here. What fantasy managers might be interested in, though, is
Harris’ floor. The running back has now carried the ball at least
16 times in seven straight games and he’s even caught 12 passes
over his past four games. The per-touch totals aren’t very impressive,
but this is a volume play that will probably deliver somewhere
between 10 to 15 fantasy points, especially if he’s able to get
into the end zone as he’s done in each of the past two weeks.
Wide receiver George Pickens missed the Steelers’ Week
14 game against the Browns and while head coach Mike Tomlin has
indicated that there’s a chance that he’s able to
play this week, fantasy managers would be wise to keep Pickens
on their bench in this difficult matchup. Even if he is active,
there’s a strong chance that Pickens’ playing time
will be much more limited than it normally is and he’s only
exceeded seven targets in one of his past five games even when
he’s been healthy. It can be tempting to immediately put
a young stud like Pickens back in your fantasy lineup when he
gets back on the field, but fantasy managers need to consider
that there’s a very low floor for him in this matchup and
that can be catastrophic now that we’re in the fantasy playoffs
in most leagues.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
If you could only see Jalen Hurts’ passing numbers, this
would look like a situation that we’d want to be avoiding
for fantasy. Hurts has been held to fewer than 200 passing yards
in three straight games, including a season-low 108 yards through
the air this past week in Philadelphia’s victory over Carolina.
However, anyone who’s been paying attention over the past
two seasons in particular knows that Hurts does a huge percentage
of his fantasy damage with his legs. Hurts has now rushed for
13 touchdowns this season - tied with Baltimore’s Derrick
Henry for most in the league - and there’s really no sign
that the Eagles are going to be changing up their offense anytime
soon.
This is a difficult matchup against a very good Pittsburgh defense,
but this is not the time to be taking a chance on other quarterbacks.
Hurts has gotten you this far and he should deliver enough fantasy
points to give you a chance this week.
This past week saw A.J. Brown fail to turn in a double-digit
PPR fantasy game for just the second time this season, and his
season-low four targets are certainly a concern as we head into
the fantasy playoffs. It’s worth noting, though, that the
Eagles were very successful in running the ball against the Panthers
and Jalen Hurts threw just 21 passes in the victory. So while
the end result wasn’t what we were hoping for, it also wasn’t
completely unexpected and it’s something that fantasy managers
can feel somewhat okay about as we head into Week 15. The unfortunate
thing is that the Eagles receiver now has a different problem
on his hands as he’ll be up against a Steelers defense that
has been among the 10 most difficult fantasy matchups for opposing
wide receivers here in 2024. Opposing WR1s have, however, scored
at least 11 PPR fantasy points against Pittsburgh in seven straight
games, giving Brown a decent chance to at least return some value
despite a tough on-paper matchup.
DeVonta Smith returned from a two-game absence this past week
against the Panthers, catching four passes for 37 yards and a
touchdown in the Eagles’ victory over the Panthers. It was
a decent enough fantasy day for Smith who has had a down season
as a whole and that could inspire some fantasy managers to take
a chance on him here in Week 15, but that will likely be a mistake.
Not only are the Steelers one of the better defenses at defending
against opposing wide receivers this season, but Smith himself
just isn’t seeing the volume needed to really deliver a
big upside game. His season started off strong with 28 targets
over his first three games, but since then Smith has averaged
fewer than five targets per game. If it wasn’t for a seemingly
unsustainable near-17 percent touchdown rate during this stretch,
Smith’s numbers would be almost completely useless from
a fantasy standpoint.
We have to consider that the Eagles are among the league’s
highest-scoring offenses so Smith may continue to get into the
end zone at a rate that would be impossible for most players,
but this is also a difficult matchup against a talented defense
that has only given up nine total touchdowns to opposing wide
receivers this season. There’s a real chance for a complete
dud here with Smith and fantasy managers can’t risk that
with their season on the line.
Jonathan Taylor’s ceiling may be somewhat limited by Anthony
Richardson’s running ability around the goal line, as well
as the ability for the Colts to sustain long drives due to inconsistency
in the passing game, but the touches remain, as does the talent
of the veteran star running back.
Taylor is seeing 18.6 carries per game and is 17th among running
backs in FPts/G. The Broncos are more vulnerable to backs as receivers
than as rushers - having 5 of the 10 touchdowns they allowed to
backs come through the air. That is not a particular strength
of Taylor’s, but his volume may be enhanced in a game where
the Colts will likely try to establish the run and win a limited
number of passing strikes through play-action against a dangerous
Broncos secondary. He’s a solid RB2.
Josh Downs began the week with a limited practice, hoping to
come back from a shoulder injury. If he does, he’ll try to use
his 72.6 percent snap rate – per Playerprofiler – to avoid Patrick
Surtain II as much as possible, especially with Michael Pittman
Jr. being a forgotten man in the Colts offense. Downs has been
the most consistent and productive receiver for the Colts when
healthy, currently ranked 31st among wideouts in FPts/G.
While the Broncos secondary is difficult, even aside from Surtain,
it’s very possible that cornerback Riley Moss will miss
another game, thinning the Broncos coverage a bit and helping
Downs – if he can play – to have a productive day.
He’s in the Flex conversation if active this weekend.
While Jameis Winston “cracked” the Broncos defense
two weeks ago (he still threw 3 picks and 2 pick-sixes), the Broncos
have otherwise been a steel trap for opposing quarterbacks. Lamar
Jackson is the only other QB to score over 20 fantasy points in
a game against them this season, and he’s having another
legendary year.
Even in Jackson’s 23.6-point performance, he managed just
4 yards rushing – an anecdote for how well the Broncos have
suppressed quarterback rushing production this season. They’ve
given up just 191 rushing yards and 1 touchdown, which does not
bode well for Richardson, having made much of his fantasy money
off of his legs (383 rushing yards and 4 rushing touchdowns).
Even while generally succeeding as a runner, Richardson still
ranks just 20th in FPts/G at quarterback, putting him at risk
of being no more than a QB3 against a difficult Broncos team his
skills don’t match up well against.
Meanwhile, Richardson’s major struggles with accuracy –
throwing for under a 50% completion percentage this year –
and his style of play with combines big downfield strikes with
rushes and scrambles, has led to Pittman being a forgotten man.
He’s had just three games with over 60 yards receiving this
season, has not broken the ceiling of 6 receptions in any game
despite catching 109 passes last year, and has just 2 touchdown
receptions. Sadly, he should remain on your bench.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.5
Ranked 14th among quarterbacks in FPts/G with 18.2, Bo Nix will
draw a Colts team that surrenders the 11th most points to the
position. Nix saw a 3-game interception-less streak come to an
end with two picks in Week 14, and has now had back-to-back games
with under a 60% completion percentage. He’s produced enough
with his arm and legs this season to warrant a look as a back-end
QB1 versus Indianapolis at home.
Courtland Sutton brings his team-pacing 104 targets into a matchup
against a Colts team that has been middling against opposing wide
receivers. With Javonte Williams being a distant second on the
team with 50 targets, Sutton faces no real competition for supremacy
in this offense. The result? Eight or more targets and 70 or more
yards in each of the last six games. Sutton is an easy WR2 in
Week 15.
Marvin Mims is set to return from a 1-week absence in week 15.
Prior to the injury, there was an uptick in production, culminating
in a 3 reception, 105-yard performance in Week 14, bolstered by
a 71-yard touchdown reception. Mims’ targets have steadily,
if incrementally, increased over the course of the season, and
he’s had multiple receptions in each of the last four games
– a first for him.
Mims is still only averaging 3.75 targets over the last four
games, but that’s double the involvement he was seeing before
then and he’s recorded at least 40 yards in three of those
games, as well as 2 touchdowns during that span. Notably, he’s
also handled 9 rushes during that time. He’s not involved
enough to consider starting in standard leagues, but he has at
least made his way into the deep league Flex conversation.
With just -1 combined rushing yards over the last two weeks,
Javonte Williams time in Denver seems to be coming to a rather
dead end. Even against a Colts defense that has had few answers
for opposing running backs, it’s virtually impossible to
trust Williams and what opportunity he’ll even get while
he remains in a Broncos uniform.
Beyond Javonte, Audric Estime and most recently Jaleel McLaughlin
have had their moment peeking out into the sun. McLaughlin had
14 carries last week, but like Estime before him, that can’t
be trusted to continue and this offense doesn’t support
running back production without significant, steady volume. Mims’
added involvement in the running game only further complicates
matters.
Even with 15 touches last week, as was generally true with the
running backs before him, McLaughlin still could not crack double
digits (8.5 FPts). Any running back in this offense would be a
tremendous dart throw at this point.
With the Bills scoring 42 points in a Week 13 loss to the Rams,
there were plenty of gaudy numbers to go around. Shakir sat at
the top of the list for players not named Josh Allen, hauling
in five passes for 106 yards and a touchdown. The lone holdover
of note from last year among Buffalo’s receiving corps, Shakir
has some similarities to Amon-Ra St. Brown in that he just does
whatever’s required and catches basically everything that gets
close to him. The numbers haven’t always been great -- that was
just his second 100-yard game of 2024 and first score since Week
3 -- but he’s Buffalo’s most consistent threat in terms of usage,
having been targeted at least seven times in seven straight games.
With their defense banged up, Detroit’s plan is to possess the
ball and limit Buffalo’s opportunities, which is what they did
with the Packers last Thursday when they ran 76 plays to Green
Bay’s 45 in a three-point win. There’ll be plays to be made, though,
and Shakir seems the most likely to make them. He’s a viable WR2.
Acquired from the Browns in mid-October, Cooper posted a 4-66-1
in his debut... and then proceeded to catch six passes for 70
yards over the next three games combined. Whatever was said in
the lead up to their matchup with the Rams, Allen was focused
on getting the veteran the football. Cooper was targeted 14 times
(he’d been targeted 13 times in his first four games as
a Bill), catching six passes for 95 yards. It’s not incredible
efficiency, but it was encouraging to see a significant uptick
in involvement. Buffalo will need to score to keep up with the
Lions, and it looks like getting Cooper the ball is part of the
game plan. Then again, it could be an outlier, and we’ll
see the veteran regress to a reduced role. That’s the risk
if you want to use Cooper as a WR3.
Kincaid (knee) hasn’t played since Nov. 10, but he practiced
in full on Wednesday and appears to be trending towards a return
in Week 14. While that should help the offense by giving Detroit
another playmaker to track, Kincaid’s numbers haven’t
been good for most of 2024. His highwater mark for the year in
a game is 52 yards, he’s scored just twice all season, and
in his last three games before the injury he’d totaled 87
yards. If you’ve held onto him all this time, it might be
tempting to get him into your lineup, particularly after fellow
Class of 2023 tight end Tucker Kraft scored last Thursday, but
Kincaid would be a risky choice for your TE1.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Another member of last year’s tight end class, LaPorta has endured
a disappointing sophomore season, entering play this Sunday with
a 36-445-5 line. To put that into perspective versus his rookie
year, LaPorta would need 50 receptions, 444 yards, and 5 TDs over
the final four weeks just to match his 2023 output. While that
won’t happen, there have at least been some signs over the last
month. He had a season-high 66 yards and a TD against Houston,
scored twice versus the Bears on Thanksgiving, and had a solid
5-54-0 against the Packers last week. We know Jared Goff is going
to take the open read, and the Bills defense was in shambles last
Sunday against Matthew Stafford. This feels like a week where
you could feel optimistic about LaPorta as a decent TE1.
Goff is a frequent selection for this spot because his involvement
offensively is often determined by the success (or lack thereof)
of the running game. A clear example of that can be found in two
meetings with the Packers this year. In Week 9, the combo of Gibbs
and Montgomery turned 28 carries into 138 yards (4.9 YPC), and
Goff threw just 22 passes, ending with 145 yards and 1 TD. In
Week 13, that duo ran 29 times for 94 yards (3.2 YPC), and it
fell to Goff to move the offense, which he did for 283 yards,
3 TDs, and 1 INT. One of those efforts was solid QB1 production.
One wasn’t. With how badly the defense is banged up, there’s
little doubt the Lions will want to run and keep the ball away
from Josh Allen. If it works, Goff may generate little value.
If it turns into a shootout, Goff could rack up some numbers.
He’s a risk/reward play.
Patrick may have opened some eyes with his two-touchdown performance
last Thursday, giving him 12 catches, 146 yards, and those 2 TDs
in his last three games. While it’s a nice story, don’t get tricked
into thinking Patrick is a reliable play. At best, he’s the No.
6 option for Detroit’s offense behind the four players listed
above and Jameson Williams. Could lightning strike for a second
week in a row? Sure, but unless you’re in pure desperation mode
that’s not a bet you’d want to make.
The unique scheme and nature of the Buccaneers offense has allowed
both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving to provide regular Top 24
production, simultaneously. This is rare in fantasy football,
but the unusual amount of volume funneling through Tampa’s backfield
coupled with the qualifying talents of both White and Irving have
churned out rare results.
While White draws the Chargers difficult defense this week, who’ve
allowed the 6th fewest points to opposing running backs and just
1 receiving touchdown to the position, he stands to see greater
volume with Bucky Irving re-injuring himself last week, and being
out of practice as of Thursday. Even if Irving plays, it would
not be surprising to see him either in a limited role or yet again
re-aggravate his injuries. Last week, we saw White go for 23.9
fantasy points in this scenario.
23.9 might be hard to come by versus the Chargers, but White
is a must start with high volume likely awaiting him.
Wide receiver Mike Evans is a must start when healthy, but his
hamstring has been flaring up and he is yet to practice this week.
If he doesn’t see a marked improvement in practice time
tomorrow, even if he plays Sunday, there is a major risk of the
injury getting aggravated during the contest. Evans is reduced
to a risk-laden Flex if active.
We’ve seen Cade Otton’s target share dramatically
grow in the face of injuries to other key players in the Tampa
Bay offense, driving him into Top 5 tight end territory for several
weeks earlier this season. That spike included 14.0, 24.6, and
17.7 point performances in succession.
But Otton draws a difficult task in the Chargers defense. Los
Angeles has been suffocating to opposing tight ends in the red
zone, and on the whole has allowed the 9th fewest fantasy points
to the position, despite playing in a division with two of the
top seven fantasy tight ends this year.
None of this precludes Otton from the TE1 conversation sans Mike
Evans and/or the combination of Bucky Irving and Sterling Shepard,
but against this defense he’s more of a back end TE1 than a Top
5 TE if Baker Mayfield is short on other options. He’s outside
the TE1 conversation if there’s a surprising change for the better
in the health of his teammates.
With Mike Evans, Bucky Irving, Sterling Shepard (foot) and All
Pro offensive tackle Tristan Wirfs all missing practice on both
Wednesday and Thursday, this Sunday could prove to be disastrous
for Baker Mayfield despite currently being ranked 5th in FPts/G
with 22.1. Mayfield has enjoyed the coziness of just a 15% pressure
rate, but sans Wirfs and the kind of receiving threats that might
hold back some blitzes, Joey Bosa, Khalil Mack and company may
make it too difficult a day for Mayfield to succeed.
Further complicating matters is the reality that the Chargers
do their best work in coverage against what may be his best two
receiving options on Sunday – his running back and his tight
end. Mayfield falls into QB2 territory against a strong defense
as these injuries pile up.
Running Bucky Irving had been one of the toasts of fantasy football
– producing 66.3 fantasy points over the prior three weeks
– before getting re-injured just 5 touches into his Week
14 performance. Irving, dealing with back and hip injuries, has
yet to practice this week and after the Bucs made a failed attempt
to try and have him play banged up last week, it’s unlikely
that they take that risk again. If the Tampa goes against seemingly
sound logic and makes him active, he carries a near-zero floor
and may only play a limited number of snaps. It’s probably
best to sit him this week.
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.17
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Except when facing subs-turned-starters like Tommy DeVito, Aidan
O’Connell and Spencer Rattler, the Buccaneers defense has
been torn to shreds by opposing QBs. The 10 quarterbacks they’ve
faced who were opening day starters have averaged 25.4 fantasy
points per game. Only Jared Goff (Week 2), scored less than 18.3
against them. Recently, Bryce Young, whose hold on his teams QB1
job has slipped through his hands at times, still produced 23.6
points against them.
Justin Herbert is a mere 28th in FPts/G this season, but his
15-1 touchdown to interception ratio is proof that he is a legitimate
starting quarterback in this league. Facing the Bucs - especially
without Antione Winfield Jr. - he’s arguably a legitimate
QB1 in fantasy, too.
Wide receiver Ladd McConkey, Herbert’s most valuable target,
is on track to play this weekend, having logged back-to-back limited
practices to start the week. His status should be monitored, but
being 28th in FPts/G with 11.2 and steadily rising, he’s
got a huge ceiling against the Buccaneers and is a must start,
if active, on Sunday.
Wide receiver Quentin Johnston turned out a 5-48-1 performance
against the Chiefs, recording his 7th touchdown of the season.
He holds nearly a 50% share of Justin Herbert’s touchdown
passes this year, and in a game where red zone opportunities should
be greater than normal for the Chargers, the largely touchdown
dependent Johnston is again leaning towards a boom candidate at
Flex.
With Will Dissly leaving early with an injury in Week 14, Stone
Smartt saw the most action in the tight end room, accumulating
37% of snaps for the day and catching 3 passes for 54 yards on
3 targets. Tucker Fisk saw 35%, but did not seem to benefit from
Dissly’s inactivity, as Fisk has been seeing 26-43% of snaps since
being activated to replace also-injured Hayden Hurst.
Despite accumulating just 21 career receptions through nearly
three seasons, Smartt may very well be in line to see north of
a 50% snap rate this week and against a Bucs defense that has
surrendered at least 9.7 points to an opposing tight end every
game but one since Week 4, he’s certainly worth a look as
a deep play or for a severely short-handed fantasy owner.
Gus Edwards had his best game of the season last week (36 yards
and a score), but was again capped at 10 touches (all rushes),
and Kimani Vidal threw his hat in the ring with 8 rushes for 34
yards. Neither running back had a reception and the two backs
have combined for just 5 total receptions this season.
Vidal took the majority of the snaps at running back for the
first time (53%), but Edwards has more of a track record and still
saw 43% of the snaps. This is a committee backfield, at least
until J.K. Dobbins can return. Without Dobbins, it’s also a backfield
that lacks a enough punch in an offense that mainly tries to play
keep away from their opponents, making neither Edwards nor Vidal
suitable for starting in your lineup.
Rhamondre Stevenson leads the Patriots with 7 scores, and has
been the focal point of their offense for some time, amassing
20 or more touches in three of the last four games and four of
the last six. It’s not unusual to see a team lean a bit more on
a running back when a rookie QB enters the fray, and that’s exactly
what has happened since Drake Maye has taken over at QB.
With 11.5 FPts/G, Stevenson has been more of a Flex than a RB2
this season, but his increased usage combined with a friendly
matchup against the Cardinals makes him a fine choice as your
2nd running back this week.
Over the last four games, rookie quarterback Drake Maye is 18th
among fantasy quarterbacks in FPts/G, with his mobility keeping
him in the QB2 conversation. The Cardinals have not given up a
20-point performance to an opposing QB since Week 6, making it
very unlikely that Maye breaks out of the mid-to-low end QB2 realm
this week. He’s a back-end play in Superflex leagues, and
a looks the part of a wise sit in standard formats.
Hunter Henry has been the Patriots leading receiver this season,
reeling in 58 receptions in an offense that has otherwise relied
on what can almost be described as a hodgepodge of receivers.
Henry’s relatively steady-hand has made him a high end TE2,
currently ranked 16th among tight ends with 7.4 FPts/G.
Certain matchups push Henry into the TE1 conversation, but this
is not one of those. The Cardinals have made life very hard on
tight ends this season, giving up the 4th fewest points to the
position. That leaves Henry as more of a low-end TE2 than a low-end
TE1, and it’s worth exploring streaming options if you’ve
been leaning on Henry.
NE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.16
NE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
NE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
While Kyler Murray’s two early picks against the Seahawks
proved too much for the Cardinals to rally from, Murray himself
did save his fantasy day with a couple of scores later on in the
affair. He remains respectable-though-not-elite QB1, currently
11th in fantasy points per game and facing a Patriots team that
has given up the 16th most points to opposing QB’s.
James Conner has now amassed 237 touches in 13 games this season,
putting him on pace for what would be – believe it or not
– his first 300-touch season of his career. Volume has rarely
been an issue for Conner since he emerged from LeVeon Bell’s
shadow 7 years ago; it’s been more a question of whether
Conner could stay on the field.
In his career, Conner has never made it past Week 15 without
missing time due to injury, so he’s hopefully closing in
on a first. Otherwise, unthreatened by backfield competition,
Conner is a RB2 against the Pats.
Marvin Harrison Jr. now finds himself as WR42 in FPts/G, fourteen
weeks into his rookie season. This is certainly the very low end
of expectations for the elite prospect. The Patriots don’t
present an elite defense, but they are middle-of-the-pack and
don’t present a particular weakness for Harrison and the
Cardinals offense to attack. He’s a tough-to-trust Flex
option this Sunday.
21-year-old Trey Benson has seen 10 or more touches just twice
this season, and saw just 3 last week. While he’s got virtually
no room to make a fantasy impact with James Conner on the field,
he has shown some things during his limited opportunities, averaging
5.1 yards per touch while breaking 6 tackles on 64 total touches.
There is reason to think that he should be stashed by Conner owners
as the fantasy playoffs nears (or has arrived) for many, as he
could take on bell cow status if Conner went down. He’s
a sit-and-hold, right now.
Jordan Love and his 18.7 fantasy points per game will face off
against the Seattle Seahawks, who’ve been middle of the
road against opposing QB’s (19th most fantasy points allowed).
With the Packers leaning more and more on Josh Jacobs to literally
carry them into the playoffs, Love’s production has dipped
after five consecutive multi-touchdown games to start his season.
Having not thrown the ball more than 30 times in any of the last
four games, and with just 7 total touchdowns in the last six games,
it’s fair to hesitate about turning to Love this week. But
expect the Seahawks to que in on Jacobs after he’s compiled
7 rushing touchdowns over the last three games which should open
up some passing lanes for Love. Quite frankly, it’s also
overdue for the Packers to turn Love loose.
Tight end Tucker Kraft has had a fine second season, averaging
9.6 yards per target and scoring 7 touchdowns through 13 games.
He’s only seen more than 5 targets three times this season,
so his fantasy value largely hinges on big plays, which he’s
provided frequently, even when his QB isn’t throwing a lot
of passes. All of the focus on Josh Jacobs should only benefit
a player like Kraft, and that means his production is fairly sustainable
going forward. He can be viewed as a back end TE1 against the
Seahawks.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: All Packers Wide Receivers
The Packers receiving room is more advanced from the Patriots
in terms of talent, and yet they are nearly as impossible to distinguish
from each other on a week-to-week basis. Jayden Reed was the one
exception early in the year and is currently 29th among receivers
in FPts/G, but he’s been blending into the blur as of late.
He had zero receiving yards last week and hasn’t had more
than 5 receptions since Week 6.
Romeo Doubs is 57th in fantasy points per game, Christian Watson
is 62nd and Dontayvion Wicks is a distant 98th. Between the trio
and Reed, one of these receivers will almost surely have an impactful
day in fantasy football this week, but it’s nearly impossible
to say which one. All have virtually no floor, making them too
big of a risk against a solid Seahawks defense with your fantasy
season on the line.
GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.23
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to produce, compiling at least 79
total yards in each of the last five games, and dialing up his
4th touchdown in that span last week. It can’t totally be
ignored that his targets have dipped the last three weeks, not
topping 7 during that span. His recent involvement in the jet
sweep, including once last week, has helped his touch count of
course.
It will likely help that Jaire Alexander will have his hands
full with DK Metcalf, and Geno Smith is likely to be inclined
to go more Smith-Njigba’s way as a result. As such, JSN should
not be doubted as a WR2 play in Week 15.
If Kenneth Walker is made inactive this week, then Charbonnet
would be in the ‘no brainer’ category. His three performances
in 2024 where he’s received bell cow action have demonstrated
this quite clearly, scoring 15.4, 24.2 and 34.8 points in said
games. As it stands, he’s arguably worth looking at as a Flex
even if Walker is somehow active. More likely, it’ll be Charbonnet
as a bell cow this weekend and a must start.
Geno Smith has produced 14.4 or less fantasy points in each of
his last three games and is now 16th in FPts/G among quarterbacks
(17.7). The Packers are middling against opposing quarterbacks,
meaning Smith is probably in high-end QB2 territory this week.
As partially touched on above, it doesn’t look good for
Walker this week as he’s yet to practice as of Thursday
while dealing with a calf injury. With Zach Charbonnet on board,
there’s no need to even consider rushing him back. Most
likely, he will sit. If something miraculously changes, he would
still only be a risky flex play.
DK Metcalf’s production since returning from injury has
been respectable, but not great and lacking his typical ceiling.
That’s partly due to his TD drought which has reached 4
games, but also due to a decline in targets. After seeing 11 or
more targets in three different games prior to getting injured,
he’s been capped at 9 since his return. Drawing the smothering
Jaire Alexander this week does not bode well for Metcalf breaking
that trend, and he’s no more than a Flex play as a result.
Let’s get this out of the way. Nothing looked good for
the Bears in Week 14. Whatever long-term benefit the firing of
Matt Eberflus might have, for at least one week it looked like
a mistake. Chicago was outclassed from the coin toss, and the
game was essentially over at halftime with the Bears having four
yards of total offense. They made a few plays in the second half,
but that performance casts a pall over the franchise. The only
way to lift it is to come out firing in Minnesota. They played
competitively back in Week 12, taking the Vikings to overtime
with an improbable late comeback. Along the way, Allen put together
his best game since arriving from LA. The veteran caught nine
of 15 targeted balls for 86 yards and a touchdown. The Vikings
give up yards through the air -- only three teams have allowed
more than Minnesota’s 250.6 per game -- and Allen is a savvy
route runner that found space to operate in the earlier meeting.
He’s worth getting in your lineup for the rematch.
Under constant pressure in San Francisco, Williams threw for
just 134 yards while taking seven sacks before he was mercifully
removed for Tyson Bagent. The rookie did throw a couple of touchdown
passes, giving him three straight games with multiple TD strikes,
but those were glorified consolation scores with San Francisco
well ahead. Still, you must admire his “never say die” attitude.
We saw it in the earlier meeting with the Vikings as well, authoring
a late rally to push the game into overtime. Williams finished
that day with 340 yards and 2 TDs; he added 33 yards on the ground.
There’s a lot to like about this matchup between Minnesota’s poor
defensive ranking and the rookie’s previous performance. Again,
though, this offense looked inept during the competitive portion
of Week 14, which raises the question as to whether you can trust
him to deliver at such a critical time for fantasy owners.
A clear centerpiece of the offense under Shane Waldron, Swift
has tallied 84, 65, 74, and 40 yards under Thomas Brown’s
stewardship. That’s 66 yards per game. He hasn’t had
a touchdown since Week 11, which was Brown’s first game
as offensive coordinator. In other words, the only time Swift
has had a good game under Brown was the first one when teams hadn’t
seen any film of what the new offense would look like. In three
games since, Swift has averaged 2.3, 3.5, and 2.7 yards per carry,
respectively. That first number came versus the Vikings in which
he ran 13 times for 30 yards. He did add 35 yards on three receptions,
but against the NFL’s second-ranked run defense, Swift looks
more like a low-end RB3 or flex play.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
In his last four games, Darnold has thrown for 1,158 yards, 11
TDs, and 0 INTs. While those are must-start numbers, the games
came against the Titans, Bears, Cardinals, and Falcons -- those
four teams won a total of five games in the months of November
and December combined. Still, you want to ride the hot hand. Not
to mention Chicago is on that list, and back in Week 12 they got
shredded by Darnold for 330 yards and 2 TDs as part of a game
where Minnesota seemingly got whatever they wanted on offense.
The Bears had no answers for Brock Purdy and a 49ers offense missing
Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and Christian McCaffrey (knee) this past
Sunday. Darnold has legit top five upside here.
The Vikings haven’t lost since Hockenson returned from IR,
going 6-0. There’s no doubt his presence opens things up
for Jefferson and Addison, and he makes their offense more dangerous.
The numbers haven’t really been there, however. In those
six games, he’s topped 45 yards only twice and hasn’t
scored. While inconsistency is always a bitter pill for fantasy
owners, the good news here is that Hockenson’s best game
since coming back was against the Bears in Week 12. He caught
seven passes for 114 yards in Chicago, and with the clubs renewing
acquaintances this Sunday perhaps there’ll be a focus on
getting the veteran more involved -- tight ends have been a problem
for the Bears, in two games since facing Hockenson, Sam LaPorta
scored twice, and George Kittle racked up 151 yards. There’s
TE1 upside here.
Now four years into his career and just 21st in FPts/G at tight
end, it seems dim that Kyle Pitts will ever be the tight end that
his college tape and 1000-yard rookie season suggested he could
be. Of course, it’s easy to forget he is still just 24,
and full of raw talent.
Despite the lack of polish, Pitts’ physical talents may
have a moment this week against a Raiders defense that struggles
against opposing tight ends. Las Vegas has given up the 4th most
points to the position and has been absolutely tormented by opposing
tight ends over the last several weeks, giving up over 20 points
to Travis Kelce, Mike Gesicki and Jonnu Smith. For each, it was
a season high. Kelce than followed up his 20-point outing with
10.3 points against them two weeks ago, and last week Cade Otton
had his highest total since Mike Evans return – 8.5 fantasy
points, facing this Raiders defense.
Pitts is not the surefire TE1 nearly everyone in fantasy football
expected him to become when he entered the league, but it’s
fair to expect the Raiders to make him look like it this week.
Drake London has seen his touchdown total nearly come to a halt
since he recorded 6 scores in the season’s first 8 games. Still,
he has maintained a high floor, as evidenced by 60+ yards he’s
produced in each of the last four weeks. He’ll likely need Kirk
Cousins to get back on track to explore his ceiling versus the
Raiders, but the safety of his floor keeps him soundly a WR2.
In the process of catching 6 passes last week, Darnell Mooney
exploded for 142 yards. It’s the kind of outburst that Mooney
has seen revived with Kirk Cousins. Even Cousins struggles this
past month clearly haven’t eliminated the possibility, but
with two consecutive games of under 4 fantasy points just prior,
Mooney is more of a boom/bust Flex candidate with a potentially
diminished Cousins.
Getting a vote of confidence from the coaching staff this week
- which in coach speak merely means that he will start the game,
but may not finish it – Kirk Cousins has at least one more
shot to right the ship. Just over a month ago, Cousins had two
of his most brilliant games of the season, putting up 7 touchdowns
against 0 interceptions in a two-game span.
Ever since, he’s compiled 0 touchdowns against a whopping
8 interceptions in four games. Clearly, the mind for the game
is still there, but it is fair to ask whether the combination
of coming off a major injury and being age 36 is leading to arm
fatigue.
With serious question marks as to whether there is something
physically wrong with Cousins, and 1st round selection Michael
Penix Jr. looming, it’s just too dangerous to start Cousins
in the hopes of a bounce back against a beatable Raiders defense,
even if you’re shorthanded.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.7
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.25
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.18
Jakobi Meyers has now compiled six 10-point fantasy performances
in his last seven games, and one could say that despite few touchdown
opportunities in this Raiders offense, Meyers has a “raging
floor”. The ceiling may get help from a Falcons defense
that has given up a whopping 20 touchdowns to opposing wide receivers.
Meyers easily has a WR1 ceiling in this game, and is a high end
WR2 all in all.
Running back Sincere McCormick has begun to emerge in this Raiders
offense over the last few weeks, seeing his carry total rise steadily
from 5 three weeks ago to 15, last week. He’s rushed for
5.5 yards per carry, well ahead of the 3.3 yards per carry Alexander
Mattison has produced this season, and even further ahead of Zamir
White’s 2.8 yards per carry.
Mattison appears poised to rejoin McCormick in the backfield
this week. Still, it’s likely that McCormick gets an extended
look as the Raiders season fades, considering that he’s
shown such efficiency. Mattison is more a threat to McCormick’s
ceiling, as he leads the team in rushing scores (3) and is built
to be a goal line back (220 lbs). All this to say, the ceiling
is likely limited for McCormick on an already limited offense.
McCormick’s production is likely to be further limited
by a Falcons defense that has been 9th best against opposing backs,
making him more of a Flex play for short-handed owners and deep
leagues than a clear-cut option.
Fade: Raiders QBs
Aidan O’Connell missed practice to start the week, but
there’s little room for consideration in starting any Raiders
QB as the carousel goes round and round, even against the Falcons
(7th most FPts/G allowed to opposing QBs). Superflex managers
will find better options elsewhere as well.
