On the surface, this may not look like a great match up for the
aging Derrick Henry. The Chiefs were decent against running backs
that played for anyone but the Raiders last year, as only Josh
Jacobs and Zamir White went for over a 100 yards rushing against
them. Sum total, the defending champions gave up the 7th fewest
points to running backs in 2023, and their greatest strength was
at the goal line – giving up the 4th fewest rushing touchdowns
(6) – while their greatest weakness was surrendering the
6th most receiving touchdowns to running backs (4). Neither of
these statistics align well with Henry’s prowess.
Yet Thursday Night’s game between two high powered offenses
has the potential to be a back-and-forth scoring affair, which
may leave the exceptionally powerful Henry ample opportunities
to tack on a score or two to his 90 career rushing touchdowns.
Henry is aging (30 years old this season), but still produced
1381 yards from scrimmage last year and 12 touchdowns, and the
fact that he did not fumble only adds to the reasons why the Ravens
will trust him inside the five-yard line. Ultimately, the Chiefs
will be in a tough spot in having to deal with two extremely rare
talents in the running game at once – Henry and Lamar Jackson
– which should provide Henry some running lanes he hasn’t
seen in a while.
Zay Flowers showed well in his rookie season, producing over
900 yards from scrimmage on 108 targets and 8 rushes, while adding
6 touchdowns. The departure of Odell Beckham Jr. (65 targets in
2023) should only open up more opportunities for the Ravens maturing
WR1.
Across the ball, the Chiefs were very tough against the pass
last season, allowing the 3rd fewest points to receivers, but
traded away top corner L’Jarius Sneed during the off-season,
whom held receivers to just a 51% target completion percentage
and an almost impossibly low 4.8 yards per target. It’s
reasonable that the Chiefs coverage will be softer this season.
With Flowers no worse than a 1B to Mark Andrews 1A, target-wise,
and the potential scoring environment of this game, the sophomore
receiver seems like a solid WR2.
Since being selected as the 27th overall pick in 2021, Bateman
has struggled to stay on the field, playing just 34 games over
three seasons. He’s yet to establish himself, producing
just 34.3 receiving yards per game and has only 4 career touchdowns.
While Beckham’s departure to Miami has opened up some targets
and a starting spot, once more, for Bateman, even prior to Beckham
and Zay Flowers arrival in Baltimore, Bateman didn’t top
47.5 receiving yards per game in a season.
With the Ravens likely to attempt to ground the Chiefs offense
through heavy use of Henry and Lamar Jackson’s legs, and
with Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers being clear favorites for targets,
it’s safe to tuck away Bateman to the far corner of your
bench or the waiver wire, at least until he shows something that
indicates he’s finally ready to break out.
Rice had an unflattering off-season, one that may lead to a suspension
down the road, but the NFL seems to be in no rush to sideline
the 2nd year receiver at this time. That means he will be fully
available Week 1, and with Marquise Brown out due to a shoulder
injury sustained in the preseason, Rice begins 2024 in a fairly
enviable position for targets, just as his successful rookie season
ended. The Chiefs did add explosive vertical threat Xavier Worthy
to the line up, but that should only help to open up space for
Rice to produce yards after the catch underneath. The Ravens have
a strong defense, but they lost a number of parts, including CB
Ronald Darby and S Geno Smith in the secondary. The Chiefs will
surely move Rice around to get him away from Marlon Humphrey as
often as possible, and with Worthy drawing at least some of both
Kyle Hamilton and Marcus Williams attention, Rice should likely
get enough opportunities from QB Patrick Mahomes to put up fantasy
WR2 numbers.
Meanwhile, running back Isiah Pacheco essentially enters 2024’s
opening week with bell cow status, considering Clyde Edwards-Helaire
is out at least four weeks and new acquisition Samaje Perine needs
a chance to get acclimated to the offense. Don’t expect this to
last, as Perine excels as a pass blocker and receiver, and will
surely earn his share of the action. But Week 1 should offer a
ton of opportunity for Pacheco to make his mark on your fantasy
football lineup.
The Ravens were somewhat tough against running backs last year
(13th most difficult), but their off-season losses on defense
included star LB Patrick Queen (Steelers), with his 133 tackles
and 9 tackles for loss. There’s a very good opportunity
here for Pacheco to put up RB1 numbers, and it seems fair to think
of him as no worse than a back-end RB1 for opening week.
A late 1st round selection that the Chiefs wheeled-and-dealed
to get their hands on, there’s little doubt that Worthy
will be given a chance to make an immediate impact. He strengthens
what was an incredibly thin receiving corps last year. Yet with
Rashee Rice, Travis Kelce, and – injury not withstanding
– Marquise Brown in front of him, Worthy’s rookie
year may have a lot of quiet weeks between some breakouts. Even
with Brown out, Week 1 may not be a feast for the rookie considering
the Ravens have two of the most formidable safeties in the game,
in Hamilton and Williams. Worthy may work more to stretch the
Ravens defense out for Kelce and Rice than to actually pick up
numbers himself, and is best thought of as a boom-or-bust WR4
to start his career.
With Brown out of action, Skyy Moore may get at least one more
shot at significant snaps in the Chiefs offense. Moore, though,
hasn’t topped 22 receptions in a season over the first two
years of his career and has shown no signs of progress as a receiver,
including this summer. He had 0 receptions this preseason, which
doesn’t help his case.
Packers have typically been a dual-RB backfield during Matt LaFleur’s
time in Green Bay, however, rookie running back MarShawn Lloyd
has been limited in practice for weeks with a hamstring injury,
which has his NFL debut in doubt. With AJ Dillon already on IR,
this could mean that the Packers head into the game with only
Jacobs and Emanuel Wilson active. A more consolidated touch split
would only benefit Jacobs and his potential to secure 20-plus
touches in one of the league’s most productive offenses. He’ll
also be up against a Philadelphia defense that was excellent early
in 2023 but struggled down the stretch as they tried to defend
the likes of Saquon Barkley, Kenneth Walker, James Conner, and
Christian McCaffrey. It’s a new look defensive unit, but the Packers
are one of the toughest, deepest offenses they’ll face all season.
Look for a heavy workload going to Jacobs and he’s a strong bet
to finish as an RB1 for the week.
With Jordan Love listed as a “no-brainer,” it would seem likely
that at least one Green Bay pass catcher should be considered
a “favorite” here in Week 1, but it’s tough to make any strong
projections for the pass-catchers in Green Bay. The Packers’ official
depth chart was released with Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs
as the “starters” on the outside and Jayden Reed out of the slot,
but this is a team that moves players in and out of the lineup
from game to game, drive to drive, and even play to play.
Given that we don’t know what the actual snap distribution,
let alone the target distribution will be, it’s typically
best to bet on talent in these types of situations. From that
standpoint, the two players who stand out most are former first-round
NFL Draft pick Christian Watson and 2023 second-round breakout
star Jayden Reed, who led the team in receiving in his rookie
campaign.
The Eagles should be a bit improved this season, but they were
among the worst pass defenses in the league in 2023 and this is
the exact type of matchup that fantasy managers should be looking
to exploit to start the 2024 campaign.
Matt LaFleur has been very vocal about not liking the labels
of “WR1” or other definitive pecking order labels.
This team only had one wide receiver finish with even a 55 percent
snap share on the season. That receiver, Romeo Doubs, led the
team with 96 targets but finished with just 674 yards. While he
did co-lead the team with eight touchdown catches, Doubs really
cooled off in the second half as he failed to reach even 40 receiving
yards in five of his final seven games, adding just one touchdown
during that stretch. Meanwhile, teammate Dontayvion Wicks was
a breakout performer down the stretch for the Packers as he scored
four touchdowns in his final five games (including the playoffs),
including a season-high six-catch, 97-yard performance against
the Buccaneers in Week 14.
However, both Doubs and Wicks are players who the Packers don’t
have a ton invested in, while also not being the most physically
talented players on the roster. That doesn’t mean that they
can’t excel and have breakout games, of course, and this
will likely be a frustrating group to project throughout the season
as long as they are all healthy.
Running back Saquon Barkley is the shiny new toy in the Philadelphia
offense who looks poised to finally take over a true lion’s
share of the touches in one of the league’s top-scoring
offenses. Barkley, a former No. 2 overall NFL Draft pick, has
spent the early part of his career rotting away behind one of
the worst offensive lines in football while playing alongside
shaky-at-best quarterbacks. That all changes in his move to the
Giants’ division rival, the Eagles. Much has been made about
the Eagles losing center Jason Kelce to retirement, but this is
a unit that not only was talent-rich at multiple positions but
also had tremendous depth. Sure, they might not be quite the unit
they have been over the past few seasons, but there’s no
reason to think that they won’t be one of the best offensive
lines in the league and that should be music to the ears of those
who invested an early-round pick on Barkley.
Barkley actually had great success against the Packers when he
and the Giants matched up against them in Week 14 this past season,
as he rushed for 86 yards and two touchdowns while adding three
receptions for 15 yards in the passing game - one of his top fantasy
performances of the season.
Smith is the unquestioned WR2 in Philadelphia which gives him
a solid weekly floor, but he isn’t the type of player who
delivers the big spike week performances very often and that can
make him a bit boring for fantasy managers who like to live on
the edge. Smith only eclipsed 100 yards in two regular season
games in 2023 and scored just seven total touchdowns, but he still
managed to produce double-digit PPR points in 11 of his 16 games,
allowing him to finish as a mid-range WR2.
The Packers’ defense is just middle-of-the-road against
opposing passing games, but this could very well turn into a shootout,
especially with the Packers’ wide receiver depth chart being
as healthy as it is.
Goedert has been a mainstay in fantasy football starting lineups
for a number of years now, but his health issues and the overall
Eagles offensive system have limited his production over the past
two seasons. Goedert failed to reach 50 receiving yards in all
but three games this past season and only got into the end zone
three total times. With the Eagles focusing primarily on getting
the ball into the hands of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, while
also adding Saquon Barkley this offseason, Goedert is way down
the pecking order despite playing in what is expected to be a
good offense.
All eyes will be on this Week 1 contest as Marvin Harrison Jr.
makes his professional debut for the Cardinals as they head to
Buffalo to face the Bills. Harrison comes in as one of the highest-touted
wide receiver prospects in recent memory and onto a team that
is lacking a clear-cut WR1. Harrison projects to be the top pass-catching
weapon in the offense immediately and this game has one of the
highest over/unders of the week, making Harrison a viable fantasy
WR1 right out of the gate.
James Conner’s 2023 season was limited by injuries, but
his production - especially after Kyler Murray’s return
to the lineup - is something that should not be overlooked. Conner
was red hot to end the regular season, scoring seven touchdowns
over his final five games while also exceeding 100 rushing yards
in three of those five contests. He also saw increases in his
passing game usage during that stretch as he had two games with
over 50 receiving yards after having not reached even 20 yards
in any game prior to that.
The Cardinals have invested heavily in their passing game this
offseason, and they did spend an early third-round draft pick
on running back Trey Benson, but that doesn’t mean that James
Conner is going away anytime soon. The coaching staff has made
it clear that they plan to utilize Conner heavily to start the
season. A case could be made that Conner is even a “Favorite”
for this game, but there is at least some concern that Benson
could be a bigger part of the offense than some are expecting,
so we do have to temper expectations to some extent.
Michael Wilson was a favorite late-round dart throw for many
fantasy managers in 2023, but his star is not shining nearly as
bright now that we’ve seen the breakout of tight end Trey
McBride and the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. to the Cardinals
offense. Wilson and Greg Dortch do have a chance to make some
noise this season, but fantasy managers would be wise to see how
the new-look offense distributes its targets and snaps before
introducing either of them into their starting lineups.
With Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis leaving town, the Buffalo offense
has a ton of vacated targets and practically no pass catchers
who have any sort of proven ability, with the exception of second-year
tight end Dalton Kincaid. Kincaid’s rookie season as overshadowed
by a monumental rookie campaign from Sam LaPorta, but the Bills
TE managed to finish as a fantasy TE1 despite that being almost
unheard of from rookies - and he did it while scoring just two
touchdowns.
Kincaid heads into his second season as the strong favorite to
dominate the snaps above teammate Dawson Knox and should be one
of the top target-earning tight ends in the league to start the
season. With this expected to be a high-scoring contest, Kincaid
makes for a strong play in Week 1.
Bills running back James Cook finished as a low-end RB1 in 2023
despite scoring just two rushing touchdowns on the season. While
the Bills certainly prioritize getting the ball into Josh Allen’s
hand in the red zone, Cook’s two scores are something that should
- at least in theory - have some positive regression this season
as long as he’s able to see the type of backfield touch share
that he did in 2023. The Bills did draft Ray Davis with a fourth-round
draft pick and there’s some concern that he could further cut
into Cook’s goaline looks, however, Cook should be a good bet
to have 15 or more touches here in Week 1.
Those in deeper formats looking for a Week 1 sleeper could have
an interesting option in Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. Shakir
finished the 2023 season red-hot, out-scoring both Stefon Diggs
and Gabe Davis down the stretch. The Bills did bring in new wide
receivers Keon Coleman and Curtis Samuel who could compete with
Shakir for touches, but Shakir is the only wide receiver on the
roster who’s shown any sort of chemistry with Allen. He’s not
a high-upside play, but he could be a sneaky, cheap option in
DFS.
Rookie wide receiver Keon Coleman is listed as a starter heading
into the 2024 season and the Bills certainly are invested in him
enough to give him some opportunities, but this is an offense
that may look very different than it has in recent years. The
team could lean more heavily on their running game as they did
down the stretch this past season, which only furthers the risks
involved in starting a rookie like Coleman in his first NFL game.
The Carolina offense is set to flow through newcomer Diontae
Johnson and returning Panther Chuba Hubbard. The Panthers acquired
Johnson via trade from the Pittsburgh Steelers this offseason
and have since made it quite clear that he will be the focus of
the passing offense. He has always been a strong route runner
and target earner throughout his career. Johnson is also coming
off a year in which he posted a career-high in yards per route
run and if he can command targets at the rate he did in Pittsburgh,
he will be a strong option in PPR leagues.
Chuba Hubbard, on the other hand, is a phenomenal option for
those who punted at the running back position early in their drafts.
Hubbard supplanted Miles Sanders to become the Panthers’ go-to
back in Week 6 last year. From that time on, Hubbard averaged
16.9 carries per game, 12.5 FPts/G (PPR), and was the RB19 during
this stretch. With rookie Jonathon Brooks shelved for the first
month of the season, Hubbard should assume this high-volume role
once again. Until Brooks is fully healthy, he can reasonably be
started as an RB2 or Flex.
Thielen was one of fantasy’s hidden gems last year. After
moving from Minnesota to Carolina, the fantasy community had essentially
written him off. He proved the doubters wrong, coming out of the
gates scalding hot and was the WR3 through six weeks. He did slowdown
in later weeks, but still finished the year as the WR17 and topped
100 catches for the second time in his career.
The issue is that Thielen’s fantasy value was propped up by a
high-volume role that saw him garner 137 targets, 13th most among
WRs. With Johnson now in town, it will be difficult for him to
earn targets at the rate he did in 2023. Unless Thielen miraculously
out-plays Johnson at the age of 34, he will be taking the back
seat in this passing attack.
There is plenty of reason to be excited about Rashid Shaheed
this season. He is a downfield burner who can blow by defenders
in the blink of an eye. He is also expected to see an expanded
role in the offense as the de facto WR2 in New Orleans. He was
successful when he was asked to step up last year, clearing 15
PPR points in three-of-six games in which he was on the field
for at least 80 percent of snaps. The Panthers did a good job
of limiting WR production last season (second fewest fantasy points
allowed) and while we’re looking for a breakout year from Shaheed,
it’s likely best to keep him on benches if you have similar options.
After reading the reports of Taysom Hill’s diverse usage throughout
training camp, it can be tempting to give him the nod in Week
1 on platforms where he is TE eligible in hopes of him getting
some looks near the goal line. But Hill is a volatile fantasy
producer and we should get a feel for how new offensive coordinator
Klint Kubiak wants to use him before getting him into lineups.
Yes, it’s reasonable to start all three Texans wide receivers
this week. Tank Dell brought up the rear of this trio in terms
of ADP this offseason, but he is still a strong start in a Week
1 matchup versus the Colts. The Colts feature one of the league’s
worst secondaries and C.J. Stroud should be able to sling the
ball all over the field, hitting all three of his primary weapons.
Both Collins and Dell will be impacted to some degree by the
arrival of Stefon Diggs, but you could argue that Dell’s
role is slightly insulated. Dell is no speedster, but his ability
to take the top off of defenses and generate big plays is uncanny.
He will be asked to play the vertical, play-making role in 2024
and will be capable of delivering big-time fantasy performances
as a result.
Schultz is the epitome of the tight end who needs a touchdown
to return any sort of weekly fantasy value. He was a starter (top-12
TE) in just two games last year in which he did not find the endzone.
With Stefon Diggs in town, it will become increasingly difficult
for Schultz to hit paydirt and rack up the necessary targets to
provide a steady floor. Unless Houston deals with significant
injuries to their receiver room, it’s difficult to see Schultz
being much more than a touchdown lotto ticket at the position.
After sliding into the middle of the 2nd round in this year’s
NFL Draft, Adonai Mitchell is in line to play a large role in
the Colts offense in his NFL debut. Fellow wide receiver Josh
Downs went down with a high-ankle sprain this offseason and is
unlikely to play in Week 1 after failing to participate in practice
so far this week. Mitchell will be asked to step up and play a
significant role in the offense, playing both outside and in the
slot.
Mitchell has the size (6’2”, 205 lbs) and speed (4.34 40-yard
dash) that make him a very appealing prospect. However, there
are questions about how his talent will translate to the NFL and
how quickly he’ll be able to develop a connection with Richardson.
He offers appealing upside given the opportunity in the offense
without Downs, but is a big risk given his rookie status and a
potential low-volume passing attack.
One of the quietest breakouts of the 2023 season, Evan Engram
may be getting overlooked by fantasy managers heading into 2024.
Engram actually led all tight ends in receptions with 114 - nearly
20 more catches than any other player at the position. The Jaguars
prioritized wide receiver in the draft, but with Calvin Ridley
moving on, there is still a huge opportunity for Engram to be
a major fantasy contributor, especially early in the year when
Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. are getting acclimated with quarterback
Trevor Lawrence. Look for Engram to compete to be the target leader
to start the season, making him a strong value in just about any
matchup, especially one that could turn into a shootout against
an offense like Miami’s.
While we should be expecting a relatively high scoring contest
in Week 1, fantasy managers have to be a bit concerned that the
Jaguars QB wasn’t all that productive or efficient in 2023 and
he’s now heading into a new season where both of his outside wide
receivers are brand new to the team. Yes, Trevor Lawrence still
has Christian Kirk and Evan Engram who make for fine starts in
Week 1, but things could start off shaky if the Dolphins opt to
schematically take away the middle of the field. Lawrence has
shown a propensity to throw risky passes, especially when his
team falls behind on the scoreboard, and he doesn’t have much
rushing ability to make up for that, making this a riskier matchup
than it might appear on paper at first glance.
Thomas joins the Jaguars and is expected to start out wide alongside
Gabe Davis and Christian Kirk. He is a prototypical size/speed
specimen who has a ton of upside, but we’ve seen this type
of profile struggle to get things going right away in the past,
especially when teams already have established pass-catching weapons
on the roster like the Jaguars do. We may very well see Thomas
break out immediately, so there’s some risk that fantasy
managers will be upset that they left him on their benches, but
there’s a lot of competition for targets in this offense
and the safest bet is to play the “wait and see” approach
with the rookie.
A backfield with two running backs who could each theoretically
finish within the top 10 at their position is rare in the NFL,
especially when both backs were not being selected within that
range in most drafts. There is plenty of reason to be worried
about a touch share that might also include rookie Jaylen Wright,
but the biggest reason for Achane and Mostert not being selected
higher in fantasy drafts was their health. Both backs are fully
healthy heading into Week 1 so this is not the time to be cautious
with this backfield. The Jaguars were a top-12 matchup for opposing
running backs to face in 2023 and we could see some serious fireworks
on the scoreboard in this game.
Waddle is a perfectly fine WR2 and he has apparently gotten through
whatever undisclosed injury was limiting him in practice in recent
days. Stil, despite him being a solid contributor overall in 2023,
Waddle failed to deliver many difference-making performances and
instead spent most of the season as a mid-to-low-end WR2/WR3.
With a healthy backfield and Tyreek Hill ready to continue his
quest for record-breaking numbers here in 2024, Waddle looks like
he may be a secondary or even tertiary option in the Dolphins’
offense to start the season. Don’t bench him for borderline
players, but understand that some 5-for-50 type performances could
be on the horizon for Waddle to start the season. He only scored
four touchdowns in 2023 and will need to develop into a more consistent
red zone weapon if he’s ever going to truly break into “must-start”
territory for fantasy.
Fantasy managers who passed on early-round quarterbacks and ended
up with Tua Tagovailoa shouldn’t be too worried about this
Week 1 matchup, but we should be expecting that the Dolphins will
be leaning heavily on their running game, at least as long as
their running backs are healthy. That could limit the total number
of pass attempts for Tua and while he was actually quite efficient
with the opportunities he had in 2023, Tua definitely fell off
in the second half of the season from where he was earlier in
the year. He’s not a terrible option overall, so don’t
bench him for your backup QB, but just know that this may end
up being more of a run-first offense than some are hoping that
it will be to start the season.
The Vikings have a new running back in town and he may need to
be a focal point in the offense now that the team is without former
QB Kirk Cousins who went to the Pro Bowl in three of his five
seasons in Minnesota. While the Vikings have been able to get
some decent production out of their passing game even when Cousins
was injured, the wisest decision is probably to slow down the
pace of the offense and focus a bit more on getting the ball into
the hands of their proven playmakers, including Jones.
Jones dealt with multiple injuries this past season in Green
Bay, but he finished the year out extremely strong with three-straight
100-yard rushing performances to end the regular season before
carrying that momentum into the playoffs where he again rushed
for over 100 yards in both of the Packers’ playoff games.
Additionally, Jones has proven himself to be one of the better
pass-catching backs in the NFL, having caught at least 47 passes
in each of his previous four seasons prior to his injury-riddled
2023 season.
We don’t know if he’ll make it through the season
without an injury, but for now, Jones is probably being underrated
by many fantasy gamers who seem to believe that this will be more
of a committee backfield than the Vikings have indicated.
Addison’s rookie campaign in 2023 was quite impressive
considering that the Vikings were playing musical chairs at quarterback
once Kirk Cousins went down. The team started a total of four
different quarterbacks, but Addison still managed to be productive,
earning 108 targets and scoring an impressive 10 touchdowns.
Fantasy gamers shouldn’t expect the Vikings’ offense to be spectacular
this season, but their targets should be fairly consolidated to
Justin Jefferson and Addison, with some Aaron Jones sprinkled
in, especially as long as T.J. Hockenson (knee) is sidelined.
It’s tough to know what type of chemistry Addison will
have with Darnold who has proven himself to be a less-than-stellar
quarterback throughout his career, but as long as he’s seeing
a 20-percent target share, Addison does have some ability to produce
useful fantasy numbers, especially given his proven ability to
make plays in the red zone.
Those in single-QB formats probably aren’t considering
Sam Darnold, but managers who participate in SuperFlex formats
could be tempted to take a chance on Sam Darnold in his Minnesota
debut. With arguably one of the best wide receiver duos in the
league to throw to and in an offense that has produced usable
fantasy numbers in some truly ugly situations, Darnold is probably
in the best situation he’s ever been in to put some quality
stats on the board. Still, Week 1 is not the time to start taking
risks with players like Darnold.
Not only is there a question of if Darnold can command this offense,
but we also know that the Giants’ defense was quietly good
against opposing quarterbacks this past season. New York actually
gave up the seventh-fewest fantasy points to opposing QBs in 2023,
conceding just 15 touchdown passes while intercepting 12 balls.
Some of that is due to the opposing teams being ahead on the scoreboard
and just choosing to run the ball against them late in games,
but there’s reason to believe that both the Giants and the
Vikings will be looking to slow down the pace in this game, which
is evidenced by this being one of the lowest implied total games
for the week in Vegas.
First-round NFL Draft pick Malik Nabers will make his debut for
the Giants this weekend and there’s every reason to believe
that he’s going to step into a role as the team’s
top pass-catcher. Nabers is one of the top wide receiver prospects
we’ve seen in recent years, having compiled a ridiculous
1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns in his final collegiate season at
LSU. He’s a complete receiver with very few holes in his
game - perhaps the biggest of which is standing at quarterback
for the Giants.
Daniel Jones has been a disaster at times and 2024 is almost
certainly his final opportunity to improve before the team moves
on. Without Saquon Barkley or Darren Waller to dump the ball off
to, Jones will need to make passes down the field if he’s going
to have any chance of keeping his job. While other pass-catchers
in New York are NFL-caliber players, none of them possess the
truly elite skills that Nabers does and we should expect that
he’s going to be an impact player right away. He’s going to see
plenty of targets… they might be ugly, but he’s going to have
chances to produce.
With Barkley gone, the Giants now turn to veteran running back
Devin Singletary to handle their backfield in 2024. Singletary
spent the first four seasons of his career in Buffalo before making
a move to Houston this past season. Singletary’s team finished
as a top-10 passing offense in each of the past four seasons,
but that’s meant fewer opportunities for Singletary as a
rusher, and he’s yet to reach even 900 rushing yards or
score more than seven rushing touchdowns in any season.
While Singletary isn’t a complete dud in the passing game,
he’s also not a top-level contributor. He’s caught
at least 29 passes in each of his five professional seasons, but
he’s never reached even 300 receiving yards and he’s
only scored four receiving touchdowns on his 175 receptions.
The truth is that Singletary likely owns this backfield to start
the season, but he’s never been much of a difference-maker
and it’s unlikely that he’s suddenly going to break
out into becoming a big-time fantasy producer behind one of the
league’s worst offensive lines. He’s a fine low-end
RB2/Flex option as long as he’s seeing a heavy workload,
but this is expected to be a low-scoring game so don’t bank
on him getting into the end zone.
It’s make-or-break time for Daniel Jones in New York. The
former first-round NFL Draft pick showed some signs early in his
career, but things appeared to be spiraling out of control in
2023 before he suffered a season-ending ACL injury. The team could
have potentially replaced him this offseason, but they opted to
give him one more chance while finally giving him a blue-chip
prospect at wide receiver to throw the ball to in Malik Nabers.
Jones has historically been a good runner which has been the
thing that has allowed him to be a viable mid-range QB2 or even
a low-end QB1 at times, but we have to be concerned that some
of that juice may be gone following the ACL injury. Hopefully,
we’ll see him take off and run a bit in Week 1 so we can
have higher hopes for him as the season goes on, but this is probably
not going to be a shootout with the Vikings, so this looks like
a good time to fade Jones and just keep an eye on how he looks.
Outside of Stevenson, nobody on the Patriots is generating much
interest from fantasy owners. Still, even the worst teams rack
up around 300 yards of offense and score roughly two touchdowns
per week. It’s a bit of a crapshoot right now as to who is going
to step up and lead the offense, but Douglas is our pick for Week
1. His 561 yards led the team in receiving last year, and his
49 receptions were second to Zeke Elliott (51). He works out of
the slot, conjuring up memories of Julian Edelman, and his ability
to get open quickly should be attractive to someone like Jacoby
Brissett, whose chief attribute is not turning the ball over.
As of this writing, Chase hasn’t resolved the issues stemming
from ongoing unhappiness over his contract. He practiced in limited
fashion on Wednesday and Thursday, and the assumption here is
that Chase will be uniform in Week 1. If not, he would clearly
no longer be a no-brainer. Either way, there’s a lot to
like about Higgins in the opener. If Chase is around, he’ll
command attention from the Patriots secondary and allow Higgins
room to operate. If not, Higgins becomes Burrow’s No. 1
target. The last time the Clemson alum faced New England, he reeled
in eight passes for 128 yards and a touchdown back in Week 17
of 2022. Get him in your lineup.
A little bonus recommendation for those in deeper leagues: if
Chase is inactive, you could consider rolling the dice on Andrei
Iosivas, who is taking over the WR3 role from Tyler Boyd. Iosivas
only caught 15 passes as a rookie, but four of them were TDs.
When Moss first signed, it seemed like he’d be the lead back on
early downs with Brown doing most of the heavy lifting in obvious
passing situations. That no longer appears to be the case, though,
as word out of Bengals camp was that it would be much closer to
a 50-50 split between the two. We should start to get more clarity
this Sunday, making both backs risk/reward types for the opener.
Moss had some big days with the Colts last season, including a
pair of 100-plus-yard efforts, while Brown came on late thanks
to his speed and pass-catching ability. Both are flex candidates
versus New England.
Harris is a quality RB2 option in the Steelers’ 2024 opener.
It has largely been expected throughout the offseason that he
would see his fair share of carries in Arthur Smith’s run-first
offense, but he could be in line for a particularly large workload
this week. The second half of Pittsburgh’s running back tandem,
Jaylen Warren, is recovering from a hamstring injury that he suffered
in Week 1 of the preseason. Warren is expected to play, but it
would not come as a shock to see him start the year off on a limited
snap count as a result. Harris is an intriguing volume-based play
to begin with as he’s posted at least 255 carries in each of his
first three seasons, but Warren’s potential for a ramp-up period
makes Harris even more interesting this week.
Many have anticipated a breakout year for George Pickens now
that Diontae Johnson has left the team. This is justified considering
Pickens saw a 28.6 percent target share and averaged 16.6 fantasy
points per game in four games without Johnson last year.
But it can be dangerous to lean into small sample sizes, especially
for a player whose offense is controlled by Arthur Smith and quarterbacked
by Russell Wilson. Coupled with the fact that Wilson is still
dealing with a calf issue (limited in practice Thursday), Pickens
seems to be more of a “wait and see” type of player instead of
someone you rely on right from the jump. However, Pickens is always
one play away from having a big week and could certainly take
advantage of a below-average secondary in Atlanta.
Across the full season, Warren is an exciting fantasy option
thanks to his role in the receiving game and his efficiency as
a rusher. But it’s hard to have any sort of faith in him in Week
1 as he recovers from a hamstring injury. He has practiced in
full this week, but limited touches for Warren should not come
as a surprise.
After six quality years in Minnesota, veteran quarterback Kirk
Cousins is set to make his debut with the Atlanta Falcons this
weekend. Cousins was not drafted as a fantasy starter in 10- and
12-team leagues, but he is the type of quarterback who will be
considered a fringe starter most weeks.
The Atlanta offense should be strong enough for Cousins to crack
the top-12 QBs in a good number of weeks, but this may not be
one of them. The Steelers feature a weak offense and a strong
defense, creating a recipe for a slow, low-scoring game where
Cousins’ arm isn’t relied upon. There’s certainly an outcome where
Cousins explodes along with Drake London and Kyle Pitts, but there’s
reason to be hesitant against the Steelers.
Mooney offers fantasy value simply due to the fact that he will
be on the field for almost every snap. Atlanta’s new offensive
coordinator Zac Robinson is expected to install a McVay-style
offense that heavily utilizes 11 personnel, meaning Mooney will
be out there quite often. But it will be quite difficult for him
to maintain consistent production while operating in the shadows
of London, Pitts, and Robinson. In a matchup that’s unlikely to
be high-flying, Mooney belongs on benches this week.
In Levis’ NFL debut, he passed for 238 yards and four TDs. In
eight subsequent starts combined, the then-rookie managed four
TDs and four INTs while averaging 196 yards passing per game.
He showed next to nothing as a runner, too, gaining 57 yards and
scoring once on 25 rushing attempts. Despite sub-par production,
there are reasons for optimism this season. The hiring of new
head coach Brian Callahan, who was Cincy’s OC the past five years,
should usher in a new era of passing in Nashville. The team also
invested in signing Ridley and Tyler Boyd to supplement DeAndre
Hopkins. We’ll get our first taste of the new offense in Chicago.
While a risky play to be sure, Levis carries some tangible upside
into Week 1.
Nobody in the NFL did a better job of locking down opposing backs
than the Bears last season as they allowed just 86.4 yards per
game and 3.8 yards per rush. The end of the Derrick Henry era
should mean fewer handoffs in general, and the new tandem of Pollard
and Spears is expected to share touches in a much more even fashion.
Both have ability as pass catchers out of the backfield, particularly
Spears, so there’s a pathway to value for each back even
if there isn’t much available in the ground game. Still,
if you’re counting on either player as more than a flex
option it might be overly optimistic.
Nothing Williams has done since being selected first overall
in April has diminished the hype surrounding the former Heisman
Trophy winner. He made some exceptional plays during the preseason,
buying time and delivering off-schedule throws, and is stepping
into a great situation for a rookie quarterback with talented
weapons at every skill position. The offensive line remains a
wild card. On paper, it looks like a weakness. We’ll see
if Williams can work around it. Facing a Titans secondary that
had an NFL-low six picks last year feels like a nice entry point
for Williams. There are risks given this is his first regular-season
appearance, but the upside exists as well.
Swift is coming off his best season, racking up 1,263 total yards
and six TDs with the Eagles in 2023, and he should see plenty
of light boxes with Chicago’s talent at receiver demanding attention.
He’s had trouble staying healthy throughout his career, though,
and the Bears have good depth behind him with Khalil Herbert and
Roschon Johnson. So, we’ll see how much of the workload he shoulders
week to week. The Titans have long been a stout run defense --
they were the only team other than the Bears to allow 10 or fewer
rushing TDs and less than 4.0 yards per carry in 2023 -- and that
makes Swift a shaky selection as more than an RB3.
A lot of the buzz surrounding Allen’s acquisition faded when
the Bears picked up Rome Odunze with the ninth overall pick. The
veteran is 32, entering the last year of his deal and is almost
certain to be a one-and-done with Chicago after they signed Moore
to a massive extension. There were questions surrounding his weight
and quickness in camp, though given his savvy that might be overblown.
It’s easy to envision Allen as something of a safety blanket for
Williams while Moore and Odunze work deeper downfield. In that
capacity, Allen might be a stretch even as your No. 3 fantasy
wideout.
Williams has yet to live up to fantasy football expectations,
and as such he’s been largely cast aside by the fantasy
football community, being selected as a RB3 in 12-team drafts.
His case was not helped by his low 3.6 yards per carry last season
and an almost unimaginable 4.9 yards per reception. He also didn’t
score a touchdown in the league’s first seven weeks, though
he rallied somewhat with 5 touchdowns during the remainder of
the season.
Despite these alarming figures, there is some reason to think
Williams has better days in front of him (such as 58 career broken
tackles in 37 career games). The most important number, at least
this week, is that Williams is facing a Seahawks defense that
gave up the 3rd most FPts to running backs last season, and did
little to address that shortcoming.
Those Seahawks struggles included allowing 6 receiving touchdowns
to backs, and despite Williams low receiving average last year,
he picked up 2 touchdown catches and already has 5 in his career.
Nix will likely dump off passes at a high rate, and while Jaleel
McLaughlin is the favored back for passing situations, Williams
has already picked up two 40+ reception seasons and should see
his share of receiving opportunities, on top of being the lead
back in the ground game. This is a good situation to look at Williams
as an RB2.
McLaughlin was an explosive playmaker at times for the Broncos
in 2023 in a limited role, averaging 5.4 yards per carry and adding
2 receiving touchdowns on 36 targets. With Samaje Perine checking
out to K.C., McLaughlin appears set to see more activity behind
Williams, particularly on passing downs. Don’t expect him
to be very active around the goal line (1 rushing touchdown on
76 carries in 2023), but he could make a few splash plays against
the Seahawks defense and, coupled with involvement in a safe passing
game, has some flex potential. He’s reasonably in the RB3
conversation in this match-up.
Sutton, meanwhile, finished the 2023 season as WR34 on the backs
of a 10-touchdown season. But Sutton hasn’t surpassed 829 yards
receiving in 4 seasons, and he’ll be teaming up with rookie QB
Bo Nix, who is best built to attack underneath, not the best match
with Sutton (career 14.3 yards per reception). This, coupled with
likely touchdown regression, make Sutton a very risky play. If
there’s a bright side, it’s that Sutton is facing a Seattle defense
that is far from stellar (12th most points allowed to wide receivers
last season), and lost one of the game’s best defensive minds
in Pete Carroll. It’s probably going to be hard to look at Sutton
as more than a WR4 or maybe even a WR5 this season. For this one,
consider him a WR4.
The Broncos shocked the world by taking Bo Nix in the first round
of the NFL Draft this year, but are certainly no less confident
in their selection after the summer, naming him the opening day
starter and a team captain. Nix’s strengths are in the short
passing game and as a scrambler, and whatever his ceiling may
ultimately be, his style is likely to lean towards him being a
game manager in an offense lacking weapons in 2024. The Seahawks
won’t be his toughest opponent, but their defensive unit
is still reasonably superior to the Broncos offensive unit. It’s
probably going to be a quiet first game for Nix, and as such he’s
best left on your bench, if not the wire.
Geno is coming off a 2023 season where he experienced more regression
than anticipated, and on a contract year is hoping for a bounce
back. Smith’s real-world numbers were by no means terrible,
but both on the field and in fantasy football Smith seemed to
lack that one or two big plays to make his fantasy day. That may
change this year, especially if Jaxon Smith-Njigba steps forward,
and Smith draws a relatively friendly opening opponent in the
Broncos, who could help jump start his season.
The Broncos gave up the 12th most points to quarterbacks last
year and lost both S Justin Simmons and LB Josey Jewell, two key
elements to their passing defense. Smith has real upside potential
in this one but a lot remains to be seen, and after a season where
Geno struggled to stay in the QB2 conversation for much of the
year, it’s best not to think of him as more than a high-end QB2
on Sunday.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s much anticipated rookie season was somewhat
shrouded by incumbent talents DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, though
JSN was sometimes his own worst enemy, dropping 10 passes on just
93 targets. It’s likely that those numbers will improve, and with
Tyler Lockett now 32 and coming off his first season below 1000
yards receiving in five years, the stage may be set for Smith-Njigba
to surpass Lockett on Geno’s target tree. It’s very possible that
he and Lockett find themselves at a crossroads to start the season,
with it taking time for a target victor (likely Smith-Njigba)
to emerge. At such, both wideouts are probably best thought of
as borderline flex options, deserving to be in the WR3/4 conversation
this week against the Broncos, but not more.
Wide receiver Davante Adams seems so far removed from his glory
days with Aaron Rodgers, or even with Derek Carr, where he was
a clear, weekly no brainer in a fantasy lineup. Poor QB play and
the fact that Adams is now 32-years-old are surely culprits. Gardner
Minshew should be an upgrade for the Raiders this year, but he
isn’t likely to return Adams to the days of Rodgers or Carr.
The best news is that Adams did not see any dip in targets (175,
versus an average of 175 over the previous two years), suggesting
that his coaches and QB’s still felt he was far and away the best
receiving option on the team. He will likely remain the top dog
for at least one more year, even if that target rate begins to
dip as younger offensive talent gains more experience (TE Brock
Bowers, TE Michael Mayer, WR Tre Tucker).
With that in mind, Adams draws a gutted Chargers defense in Week
1 that gave up the 5th most points to opposing wide receivers,
including 20 touchdown receptions. In two games against the Chargers
last season, Adams averaged 15.8 fantasy points (8/88/0.5). This
is going to be one of the best matchups, if not the best, for
Adams this season, and there’s no reason not to fire him
up as a low-end WR1 against a vulnerable defense.
Meanwhile, that same Chargers defense surrendered 16 points to
running back Zamir White late last season, who showed enough down
the stretch in 2023 for the Raiders to make him their RB1 coming
out of the gates in 2024. It remains to be seen if he can hold
that job, but Los Angeles is probably not the defense to raise
any questions.
The Chargers gave up the 11th most points to running backs last
season, and after losing the likes of WR’s Keenan Allen and Mike
Williams this off season, as well as running back Austin Ekeler,
it’s unlikely that their offense will be able to take a steady
dose of the running game out of the Raiders plans this week. White
sits nicely as a RB2 in the season’s opener.
Meyers had a very unique 2023 season. He caught 8 touchdowns,
ran 2, and threw 1, on his way to a WR2 finish (No.24). He is
a quality player who has averaged 833 yards from scrimmage on
74 receptions over the last 3 seasons, and he has thrown 6 completions
and 3 touchdowns during his career. Yet based on the amount of
touches he receives (averaging 78 since 2021), it’s reasonably
likely that he will see significant touchdown regression, particularly
on a Raiders team that is not expected to be a scoring machine.
While the Chargers are very beatable in the secondary, Meyers
only put up 32 and 33 receiving yards against them in two outings
last season, and was only targeted 8 times. With the arrival of
playmaking TE Brock Bowers and the potential growth of last year’s
2nd and 3rd selections TE Michael Mayer and WR Tre Tucker, consistent
targets may be even more difficult to come by for Meyers. He’s
a risky WR4 this week.
Meanwhile, Tucker comes in at a similar value, albeit on a very
different path. Tucker showed as a rookie that he’s a dangerous
home run hitter, and very well may take it to the house against
the Chargers defense, but is also someone who could walk away
with just a couple of targets and nothing to show for it. One
of each of those outings came against Los Angeles last year (2
touchdowns in Week 15 after going untargeted in Week 4). Depending
on how much more growth he made over the summer, Tucker could
see an increased role this year. But that remains to be seen,
and he’s best thought of as a wild boom-or-bust WR5, this
week.
There’s a lot of excitement about tight end Brock Bowers
and that’s understandable, despite him being drafted to
a team that already had invested significant draft stock in the
position the year before. Brock showcased his athleticism during
the combine, where he ran a 4.53 forty-yard dash, and reeled in
175 receptions and 26 touchdowns in three years at the University
of Georgia. Coming on the backs of a 2023 season that saw two
rookie tight ends be fantasy relevant (Sam LaPorta and Dalton
Kincaid), and one lead the tight end position (LaPorta), there’s
a lot of wonder whether lightning could strike again. Proceed
with caution to start the season.
It’s plausible to believe that Bowers may need to work
his snap count up over the first several weeks of the season,
as incumbent TE1 Michael Mayer is no small talent, himself. It’s
expected that both will see the field together, often, but the
Raiders will surely want a fair number of packages with field
stretching third receiver Tucker on the field as well, and so
Bowers may be in a rotational committee for a while as he learns
the pro game.
The Chargers, for all of their weaknesses, were hardly terrible
against tight ends (18th most points allowed in 2023), so this
isn’t the sweetest spot for Bowers, either. He could very
well still make a big play or two, but he’s probably more
of a high end TE2 to start his career, including in this match
up.
Just a year ago, some drafters were taking a shot at Mayer in
the late rounds, hoping he might provide value as the season progressed.
It didn’t quite work that way – as is the norm for
rookie tight ends, even very talented ones. Just a year later,
when he might otherwise have again drawn late-round consideration
in a possible leap forward, those hopes were likely dashed by
the Raiders moves on NFL draft day 1. Mayer now finds himself
in more of a blocking tight end role, and will be in snap count
competition all year. He is likely going to have an impact on
fantasy football in the future, but probably not this year.
Over the last couple of seasons, whenever WR Keenan Allen and/or
WR Mike Williams went down, Palmer saw an opportunity to make
an impact in the fantasy football landscape and took advantage.
Those opportunities included two 100-yard performances in each
of the last two seasons, and five different games with double
figure targets.
Palmer is now the head vet in the room, and will be spending
time outside the shadows of Allen and Williams. It’s reasonable
to expect that QB Justin Herbert puts his greatest trust in Palmer
in tight situations and to move the chains, at least while rookie
Ladd McConkey is coming along. Palmer’s value may be at its peak
early in the season, where he’s worthy of flex consideration,
including Week 1 versus the Raiders.
McConkey, the 34th overall pick in this year’s NFL draft, is
speedy receiver (4.39 40-yd dash) with more than enough size (6’0
185) to potentially develop into a WR1 on the Chargers roster.
With his starting quarterback missing much of the summer due to
injury, it’s likely going to take a bit longer than planned for
McConkey and Justin Herbert to get the kind of rhythm that can
pump out productive fantasy days. But with WR D.J. Chark missing
multiple practices already this week, McConkey seems poised to
be thrust into a bigger role in the offense right away. Whether
he and Herbert can connect against the Raiders defense is the
big question, and leaves him a risky play. He’s probably a risky
WR4 for Week 1.
The Raiders were tough on quarterbacks last year (9th least points
allowed) and with the arrival of All Pro defensive tackle Christian
Wilkins, their pass pressure may only make them tougher. Justin
Herbert does come in with an improving offensive line lead by
OT Rashawn Slater and bolstered by 1st round selection OT Joe
Alt, but even if he can find time, the Chargers 2024 offensive
unit is a far cry from the days of Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
and Austin Ekeler. There will be days when Herbert’s talent can
get him into QB1 territory, and perhaps Quentin Johnston finds
his feet beneath him and McConkey quickly develops into a reliable
target, changing the landscape. For now, against any challenging
opponent, Herbert is probably best left on the bench.
Part of clearing house during the 2023 off season meant that
the Chargers would need to revamp their running back room. They
adopted two Ravens free agents – Gus Edwards and J.K. Dobbins.
Dobbins has always flashed talent, including rushing for 6 yards
per attempt and 9 touchdowns as a rookie in 2020, but in three
years since has been repeatedly injured and played just 9 total
games. After all of the damage he’s taken, he’s difficult
to trust in fantasy lineups especially given the split backfield.
Gus Edwards, meanwhile, has been a steady right-hand man, of
sorts, to Lamar Jackson, in the Ravens running attack. Last season,
that culminated with a surprising 13 touchdowns for “Gus
Bus”. But as Edwards turns 29, he’s yet to see over
200 carries in a season, will be playing for a far less robust
offense and be without the benefits of Lamar Jackson drawing attention
on the option. Having never caught more than 12 passes in a season,
his ceiling looks to be very low, and the Chargers running back
room on the whole seems to have too many questions to run any
of the backs in your line up.
When Dalton Schultz left for the Texans before last season, there
was a hole at the tight end position. Ferguson filled it effectively.
Coming off a rookie year in which he caught just 19 balls, the
Wisconsin product racked up 71 receptions, 761 yards, and 5 TDs
-- and that doesn’t even account for his monster 10-93-3 line
during the team’s Wild Card loss to Green Bay. Given the state
of the running back room, the Cowboys are likely to lean on their
passing game more than ever, and with apologies to Brandin Cooks,
Ferguson should be Prescott’s No. 2 target behind Lamb. Facing
a tough Cleveland D that can get after the passer, a short-range
option like Ferguson could have a busy day.
Before the 2023 season, Elliott was deemed expendable as the
club wanted to make Tony Pollard the lead back. Now, Pollard is
in Tennessee and Elliott has returned after a year with the Patriots,
during which he turned 235 combined touches into 955 yards and
3 TDs. At 29, it’s unclear how much the veteran has left. He ran
for 1,357 yards and 12 scores back in 2019. In four years since,
he’s averaged 875 yards and 8 TDs. Beyond having to face the NFL’s
top-ranked defense from a year ago, we still don’t know what the
split will look like between Elliott and Rico Dowdle. Don’t rely
on the veteran as more than a flex in this one.
Even though he’s coming off his best season (81-882-6), Njoku
has become a source of skepticism as it relates to repeating that
performance. Part of it is the arrival of Jerry Jeudy, and part
of it is that much of his production came when Joe Flacco was
under center as opposed to the games that Deshaun Watson started.
Dallas has a good pass rush, and they finished fifth in pass defense
last year, so the guess here is that Watson leans on Cooper and
Njoku while tertiary targets like Jeudy and Elijah Moore suffer.
Ford led the Browns in rushing last season, but his week-to-week
production was all over the map. That includes five games of 25
yards or less in his final seven. With Nick Chubb (knee) still
recuperating, Ford is in line to be Cleveland’s lead back once
again, and the Browns figure to give him plenty of opportunities
in Week 1 to wear down Dallas’ pass rush. It’s worth using Ford
as an RB3 versus the Cowboys.
In two years with the Browns, Watson has rarely seen the field
due to a combination of suspension and injury. He didn’t
play the season before that, meaning Watson hasn’t played
a full season since 2020 when he threw for 4,823 yards and 33
TDs with the Texans. He hasn’t resembled that player in
12 starts for the Browns, and it remains to be seen if we’ll
ever witness that version of Watson again. He turns 29 this month,
so there is still plenty of time to get his career back on track.
Until he starts stringing together some strong performances, however,
he’s a risky play at best. Facing a capable Dallas defense,
Watson should stay on your bench.
It won’t be long until Jayden Daniels solidifies himself into
the No Brainer category. Daniels was one of the most prolific
rushing quarterbacks in recent college football history, running
for over 2,000 rushing yards in his final two seasons. His collegiate
scramble rate was actually higher than Lamar Jackson, Justin Fields,
Jalen Hurts, and every fantasy-relevant rushing quarterback in
recent years.
Daniels may be tough to start in his NFL debut, but he should
be in all starting lineups this week. He offers rushing upside
that can only be matched by Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson. Unless
he looks atrocious as a passer in his first handful of games,
his rushing production should be enough to support starter-level
production.
The addition of Ekeler to this backfield makes the role of each
back quite murky. Generally, the expectation is that Robinson
will handle the majority of the rushing work while Ekeler will
be relied upon for his pass-catching chops. However, it’s
not completely clear how snaps will be split. As a result, it’s
hard to rely on either back this week.
The result of this debate will likely hinge on who earns the
goal line role. Robinson seems to be the favorite, but Ekeler
has proven to be a highly effective punch-in artist in recent
years. Given that Robinson likely has an edge in that department
for now, he could be started on fantasy teams this week while
it makes more sense to practice patience with Ekeler.
Both Buccaneers receivers should make their way into lineups
this week. From a season-long perspective, Godwin is a candidate
to have a very strong bounce-back campaign. After dipping down
to a 30-percent slot rate last year, Godwin is expected to return
to the slot at a higher clip in 2024. He should see a bump in
both his target numbers and catch-rate, leading to greater fantasy
production.
Looking at the matchup with the Commanders, the Buccaneers’ wide
receivers are primed to have highly productive days. The Commanders
were arguably the worst secondary in the league last year and
will compete for this title once again in 2024. They ranked 31st
in fantasy points allowed to the position last year and after
making no significant changes to the back end of their defense,
Godwin and Evans should feast on Sunday.
One could logically conclude that a team that struggles to contain
wide receivers may also have a hard time holding quarterbacks
to modest fantasy performances. The Commanders also ranked 31st
in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks last season. Mayfield
could very easily be the next in a long list of quarterbacks to
pick apart the Commanders’ defense and is worth the nod if you
have another similar option at QB.
If you like subplots, this game is full of them. At the top of
the list is Stafford making his second appearance in Detroit after
spending the first 12 seasons there. His initial return came in
January when the Rams fell to the Lions, 24-23, in the Wild Card
round. Despite the loss, Stafford was on fire, connecting on 25
of 36 passes for 367 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He was booed
heavily by the Detroit crowd, which doubtless adds even more fuel
to the veteran’s desire to topple his former team. You know
Stafford isn’t going to give you anything with his legs,
but the way to attack the Lions is through the air, and he’s
eminently capable of getting after that secondary with Nacua and
Kupp.
As a full-season sleeper, I like Corum, a lot. I don’t
believe Williams is built to carry a full workload for 17 games,
and the announcement that he’ll return punts suggests that
head coach Sean McVay has confidence in the players behind him.
That means Corum. For the opener, however, it’s considerably
murkier. Williams should be fresh, and the Lions finished second
in the NFL in run defense last year. Plus, we don’t what
the split will look like when both backs are healthy. On the flip
side, this is a return for Corum as well, having starred at the
University of Michigan. As a risk/reward flex, you can talk yourself
into rolling the dice on the rookie.
Goff’s playoff run last year started with a home win over
the Rams, during which he threw for 277 yards and a touchdown.
His next two games -- 287 yards, 2 TDs versus the Bucs, and 273
yards, one TD versus the 49ers -- were remarkably similar, and
they show just how efficient he has become under offensive coordinator
Ben Johnson. That the Lions were able to retain Johnson was something
of a coup, and his return should keep Goff among the steadier
quarterbacks in the league. Granted, those aren’t great
fantasy numbers, but bear in mind he threw for multiple scores
in six of his eight home games last year. He’s a reliable
low-end QB1 that could exceed that ranking in what looks like
a budding rivalry with his former club.
An injury and a suspension have led to the former first-round
pick appearing in just 18 games over his first two seasons and
making 25 receptions. He scored twice during the NFC Championship
Game, reminding fantasy owners what he’s capable of. Now, with
Josh Reynolds gone, Williams is expected to fill a larger role.
The wideout is still likely to be no better than the fourth option
behind Gibbs, St. Brown, and LaPorta, but in an offense this explosive
that could still lead to significant value. It’s all hypothetical
right now -- he averaged less than 30 yards per game in 2023 --
but if you’re staring down some unappealing Week 1 matchups, Williams’
upside is genuine.
Aaron Rodgers may have some games, maybe even years, left in
the tank. Unfortunately, with fantasy owners having not been able
to see how he looks on the field this preseason, it’s hard
to say exactly how much of the legendary quarterback’s abilities
remain. Drawing the 49ers and their wicked pass rush for his first
game back, on the road, is not a good way to test it out. Rodgers
could rise to the moment but it’s best to wait and see on
him, right now. For his first game back, survival might be a good
victory for those banking on Rodger’s health and prospects
this season.
Wideout Mike Williams, like Rodgers, is coming off a major injury
- not his first – and hoping to bounce back. A lot younger,
Williams has fair odds to produce this season, especially if Rodgers
can still connect down the field. That being said, Williams will
be on a pitch count according to coaches and it’s best to
give him time to see if he’s a 100%. There will be better
matchups to run Williams out there, and considering how low he
was taken in fantasy drafts (12th round ADP), you likely picked
him to keep your bench warm for now anyway.
During a summer when Christian McCaffrey missed time due to injury,
and Brandon Aiyuk and Trent Williams were holding out, Deebo Samuel
was a regularly active rock on the practice field for the 49ers.
An extremely versatile offensive weapon who can line up almost
anywhere, the Niners will surely look to be as creative as ever
with him against the Jets on Monday night. Samuel’s extra time
being a focal point in the offense over the summer coupled with
a need to find ways to move the ball without risking the Jets
creating turnovers should likely mean a productive day for Samuel.
He’s a solid WR2, even against a tough defense.
Following a finish well within the top ten for Brock Purdy where
just about everything went right for the 49ers (till the Super
Bowl), is there is another level that Brock can go to? This summer,
Purdy claimed to be testing the waters and pushing the limits,
but the results suggest that maybe he’s already found his
limit, as he reportedly threw quite a few interceptions pushing
the ball in camp, and then struggled in two preseason games, including
throwing a pick against the Raiders third-team defense on a ball
forced to Deebo Samuel.
How much Purdy’s summer performance was a result of off-field
drama in San Francisco is a fair question, but while the dust
is still clearing, here come the Jets. Giving up just 13.1 points
per game to opposing QB’s last year, this is a risky game
to consider starting Purdy. He’s reasonably more of a QB2
than a QB1 for this one.
Meanwhile, this might be the only time in 2024 that Brandon Aiyuk
is “on the fence”. Coming out of a long holdout where
he was off the practice field, he re-emerges to face Sauce Gardner
and a Jets defense that allowed the least points to wide receivers
in the entire NFL last year, including an improbably low 5 touchdowns
to wideouts (the next fewest was 10 by the Texans). Aiyuk is a
legit WR1, but to make matters worse, his quarterback is coming
off a rough summer and the team’s all-time great offensive
tackle Trent Williams has been holding out until very recently.
It may not matter, but it’s plausible that the Niners unit
may be a bit discombobulated to open the season, especially against
a defense this stingy. None of this is to say you should not start
Aiyuk this week, but tempered expectations may be wise for Week
1. He’s likely more of a WR2 or even just a flex than a
WR1 against the Jets to start the year.
