Not all industry drafts are created equal. The FFPC
Pros vs. Joes competition is a special one to be a part of,
in part because it attracts some of the best in the fantasy industry
but also because of what is at stake. Six industry analysts (Pros)
compete against six veteran (and usually very successful) FFPC
players (Joes) in a free best-ball competition for the privilege
of gaining a free entry ($1900 value) into the FFPC Main Event
the following season.
The only downside is that it is a winner-takes-all format. If
ever there was a time to cite the immortal Ricky Bobby, Pros vs.
Joes is the ultimate "if you ain't first, you're last"
competition. Pros vs. Joes is the brainchild of Fantasy
Mojo's Darren Armani, who I met for the first time at the
King's Classic in 2018 and have competed with ever since. Darren
beat me in the title game in the inaugural event when he "reached"
for Christian McCaffrey. (Yes, there was a time when drafting
CMC at No. 12 was considered a reach.) I got my title in 2020,
so all is well between Darren and me now. All kidding aside, I
am very appreciative of Darren for inviting me to participate
yet again.
Below is a list of the competitors and the order in which we
drafted. Players without a site affiliation next to their name
are "Joes.”
1. John Paulsen - 4for4
2. Danny Mueller
3. Doug Orth - FFToday
4. Tyler Holder
5. Mauricio Gutierrez - Estadio Fantasy
6. Jason Barr
7. Curtis Patrick/Ryan McDowell - Rotoviz/Dynasty League Football
8. Gary Kuhr
9. Dan Williamson/Theo Gremminger/John Daniel - GOAT District
10. Gary Knight
11. Jim Coventry - RotoWire
12. Brian Covert
The FFPC uses tight end premium scoring (1.5 points per reception),
so it is common for the elite tight ends (such as Travis Kelce
and Mark Andrews) to come off the board within the first 15-20
picks. Most teams have at least one tight end in place by around
the sixth round.
Please click on the draft board link here
or above so you can follow along. (It beats having to type out
240 names and/or posting 12 20-man teams on this page.)
What I like: Taking the consensus No. 1 tight
end in a tight end premium league is a smart play, even at the
1.01. Kelce finished just five points behind Austin Ekeler as
the highest-scoring non-quarterback in this format last year -
and outscored all but four receivers and two running backs in
2021. Paulsen then aggressively stacked Kelce with Patrick Mahomes,
which has been a popular move in the FFPC Main Event leagues in
recent years. Jahmyr Gibbs and Aaron Jones form a very strong
backfield for Paulsen for multiple reasons. Not only do both players
have 50-plus catch upside, but each one should also not be overly
dependent on game script. The selection of George Kittle was also
another brilliant stroke by Paulsen, as it partially strengthens
a strength of his team. It also creates some urgency among the
rest of the drafters to move tight ends up their boards, which
can push some nice value down the board if his league-mates take
the bait.
What I did not like: Even if Kelce is considered
his WR1, Paulsen's wide receiver group may be the weakest in this
league. There is a fair amount of risk with each of the first
five players he drafted at the position - risk that does not appear
to have much upside attached to it. Tyler Lockett is a player
I wanted to slide back to me at 7.03 as my WR3, but he is not
someone I would feel great about serving as my WR2 every week
- much less my WR1. Mike Evans is pushing 30 years of age and
attached to Baker Mayfield. Michael Thomas already turned 30 and
has not come close to playing a full season since 2019. Paulsen
needs one more year of vintage Lockett and Evans to compete for
a title, and it is far from a certainty that either one can do
that given their new situations (Lockett fighting DK Metcalf AND
Jaxon Smith-Njigba for targets and Evans being attached to Mayfield).
2. Danny Mueller
What I like: A 1-2 punch at receiver like Justin Jefferson and
Chris Olave will be difficult to top. Jalen Hurts is perhaps the
odds-on favorite to be the highest-scoring player in this format
this year after finishing in a second-place tie with Mahomes (27.9
fantasy points/game) behind Josh Allen in 2022. Joe Mixon and
J.K. Dobbins each carry a fair amount of risk, but the Jefferson-Olave
start means they only need to play a supporting role for this
team. Jaxon Smith-Njigba may not have been a value pick per se
at 7.02, but Mueller had to feel good about landing that kind
of upside in his WR4. Dalvin Cook is yet another running back
that comes with some warts (mostly age and his current free-agent
status), but he will sign somewhere soon. In a best-case scenario,
he will be the top running back in Miami.
What I did not like: It is hard to find any
glaring holes in Mueller's draft, but the question marks at running
back would be one place to start. Mixon agreed to a restructured
contract after a summer full of speculation that he could get
cut. His spot on the roster appears safe as of now, but he was
a mediocre back for most of last season outside of his five-touchdown
game against the Panthers. While Dobbins will be one of my top
12 running backs, he also comes with plenty of risk (injury history,
contract). At worst, Cook will split carries with the Jets (or
possibly the Patriots?) and be almost useless by midseason if/when
it becomes obvious Breece
Hall is fully healthy or Rhamondre
Stevenson is a more dynamic back. Mueller did well to land
some decent tight end options in the double-digit rounds, but
I wonder if the four he took (Gerald
Everett, Tyler
Conklin, Jelani
Woods and Zach
Ertz) will combine to post more than five or six TE1-caliber
performances throughout the season.
3. Doug Orth - FFToday
What I like: Considering my goal entering the draft was to go
receiver-heavy in an effort to reduce my injury risk at running
back, I really like how I was able to adjust on the fly in one
of my first drafts of the season. Cooper Kupp is my second-ranked
receiver (barely behind Jefferson) and gives me the top-scoring
receiver (points per game) in each of the last two seasons in
this format. There is plenty of uncertainty in Indianapolis right
now, but I could not stand the thought of Paulsen or Mueller pairing
up their studs (Kelce and Jefferson, respectively) with Jonathan Taylor. (News of his "back injury" came out after the
draft was over.) While there is always a risk that his dissatisfaction
regarding his contract causes him to miss time in the regular
season, I doubt that happens. Rhamondre Stevenson also carries
some risk given the likelihood that New England adds a quality
veteran to its backfield, but Stevenson still seems like a good
bet to handle at least 60 percent of the touches in the backfield
again.
Dameon Pierce represents great value as the 21st running back
off the board and my RB3. I would be stunned if he is not a top
15 back this year as new OC Bobby Slowik installs his version
of the 49ers' offense. I was also thrilled to pair up Kirk Cousins'
consistency (three straight top-10 finishes in this format) with
Anthony Richardson's rushing upside. Last but not least, I love
the upside picks I made in the double-digit rounds. Jameson Williams
should be a solid WR3 at worst once his six-game suspension ends,
and I should not need him before then with my first three receivers
all having byes in Week 10 or after. Rashee Rice has a great shot
to be Kansas City's top receiver, and I would argue Jonathan Mingo
has the most upside of any Carolina wideout. Kendre Miller, Jerome Ford and Zamir White are all "one-away" running backs
with huge upsides.
What I did not like:Chris
Olave was a strong consideration at 2.10 over Taylor, if only
because I very much wanted a WR-WR start and to reduce my level
of dependence on running backs in general. I would have preferred
receivers with more WR2 upside than D.J.
Moore and Michael
Pittman Jr., and I made the questionable move of bypassing
Tyler Lockett
for Pierce in the sixth round. I have Pierce much higher on my
board, but I would have preferred having Moore and Lockett switch
off WR2 duties for me than Moore and Pittman. While my team possesses
plenty of upside at receiver, the lack of through-the-ceiling
upside at receiver will be what keeps me from winning this league
if anything does. (Williams, Rice, Mingo and Wilson all have WR3
upside, but Kupp is the only one I believe is a realistic candidate
to finish inside the top 10 receivers.)
I am sure I will be drafting plenty of Darren Waller over the
next month, but I also acknowledge betting on a soon-to-be 31-year-old
tight end with some injury issues to hold up for a full season
is dicey. (I like the upside I was able to land behind him, but
his health is key to my ability to compete for a title.) Taysom Hill is probably a little too much boom-or-bust as my TE2 behind
someone with Waller's recent injury history as well, although
I was fortunate to pair them up with my TE3 (Cade Otton).
4. Tyler Holder
What I like: Holder was one of three managers
to open with a WR-WR start, and it is hard not to like the peace
of mind that comes along with starting two top-10 receivers from
a year ago every week. I may not be a big fan of Marquise
Brown and Quentin
Johnston this year, but there is a better than decent chance
that one of those two and/or Courtland
Sutton and Romeo
Dobbs will consistently give him strong flex options (remember,
we start two flexes). It is also easy to see Josh
Jacobs and Najee
Harris serving as quality high-volume anchors at running back,
and I particularly liked what Holder did when he paired D'Andre
Swift and Rashaad
Penny to lock up the high-upside Philadelphia ground game.
T.J. Hockenson
may not possess the same kind of upside that Travis
Kelce or Mark
Andrews does, but his third-round price point and 80-catch
upside make him a good foundation piece in a tight end premium
format.
What I did not like: While safe does not typically win in fantasy,
I think there is too much risk with this roster after the top
three picks. Jacobs is probably the most likely of the disgruntled
running backs to miss time due to his contract this year. He is
already a high-risk injury candidate coming off last year's 393-touch
season, but he may now be at more risk for injury due to his absence
from training camp. Burning a 16th-round pick on Zamir White would
have been advisable (as opposed to letting me get him one pick
later). Swift and Penny (and Elijah Mitchell for that matter)
have noteworthy durability issues, which only increases the volatility
of the running back position for Holder. I do not see the upside
in Brown this year that others do, although it is a minor point
to make since he is Holder's WR3. Tua Tagovailoa should be a strong
QB1 for this roster when he is on the field, but his own injury
risk makes him a better QB2 option. If Tagovailoa gets hurt yet
again, I doubt Jordan Love or Matthew Stafford can keep Holder's
team afloat most weeks.
5. Mauricio Gutierrez - Estadio Fantasy
What I like: In terms of upside, few - if any - managers did
better than Gutierrez through the first four or five rounds. Gutierrez
secured three strong pass-catching options at running back in
his first eight rounds with Tony Pollard, Rachaad White and Alvin Kamara. While the last two have issues to be sure (thus, why they
were available in Rounds 7 and 8), there is a case for Pollard
being the overall RB1 this season. Damien Harris may not have
the same pass-catching upside as those players, but I think he
represents a safe floor pick to balance out the expected volatility
of White and Kamara. Good luck finding a threesome at receiver
in this league with more upside than Tyreek Hill, DeVonta Smith
and Christian Watson. Even though he has yet to top 56 catches
or five touchdowns in a season, Dallas Goedert is widely considered
the last of the seven strong tight end options. The combination
of Geno Smith and Dak Prescott is about as strong of a quarterback
pairing as any team has in this league. Few teams have as balanced
of a projected starting lineup in this league as Gutierrez.
What I did not like: Gutierrez did a fine job building this team,
but I have a few minor questions about the roster. It feels as
though he really forced the Smith-Metcalf stack with his selection
of Smith in Round 6 (Smith went between 9.1 and 11.1 in the other
five live Pros vs. Joes drafts). Given the possibility that Kamara
could miss between four and six games, I believe I would have
tried harder to add more running backs - even if they were only
White and Kamara's projected backups - after Harris in Round 11.
While I like players such as Puka Nacua and Jayden Reed, I have
my doubts about how many of Gutierrez's final four receiver picks
will contribute to his team's bottom line. I would want upside
picks at receiver after a Hill-Metcalf-Watson start at the position,
and I don't feel Gutierrez grabbed much of it after Rashod Bateman
in Round 10.
6. Jason Barr
What I like: It's a new world in fantasy where Christian McCaffrey
(or any running back recognized as the top option at his position)
can fall to the 1.06. Assuming he can stay healthy and Breece Hall (knee) can eventually regain the form he showed before his
torn ACL, Barr has a 1-2 punch at running back that may be the
best in the league. Barr also took advantage of a slide from Kenneth Walker as reports of a groin injury surfaced hours before the
start of this draft. Josh Allen is about as good as it gets at
quarterback, which sets Barr up nicely at the two highest-upside
positions in fantasy football. Jaylen Waddle is a fine receiver
anchor given the CMC start and Treylon Burks was one of the receivers
I was eyeing in Round 8 before my targets at that position dried
up. Zay Flowers will almost certainly post some usable weeks for
Barr as well.
What I did not like: I want to like Pat Freiermuth more than
I do this year. The same could be said for Dalton Schultz. Pittsburgh's
quarterbacks threw for 11 touchdowns last season (Chase Claypool
threw one as well). Even if we predict an increase to 20 this
year, Freiermuth will have to fight rookie Darnell Washington
for red zone looks. (Remember, Diontae Johnson is also a huge
touchdown regression candidate after putting up zero on 86 catches
a year ago.) Schultz's managers will likely discover this year
that Dak Prescott was the most critical part of Schultz's success.
My point to all this is that Barr likely has two floor candidates
at tight end in a tight end premium league.
My only other criticism might be that he probably needed to draft
at least one more running back given CMC's history and Hall's
uncertainty heading into the season. I am not crazy about stacking
the Tennessee passing game (Ryan Tannehill, DeAndre Hopkins and
Burks), but I cannot be too critical as I stacked the Colts' offense
(Richardson, Taylor and Michael Pittman).
7. Curtis Patrick/Ryan McDowell - Rotoviz/Dynasty League Football
What I like: Patrick and McDowell will be able to play "bully
ball" with anyone in this league after securing arguably
the two backs most likely to exceed 300 touches in 2023 in Bijan Robinson and Derrick Henry. The duo kept adding upside at the
position after that with Samaje Perine - one of my favorite mid-round
targets this year - Tank Bigsby and Gus Edwards. Not only did
Patrick and McDowell complete a Jaguars stack with Trevor Lawrence
and Evan Engram, but they also did so with the appropriate fantasy
draft capital. That was only the beginning of their stacking,
as they also paired Kenny Pickett with George Pickens and Sam Howell with Terry McLaurin. Considering they did not address the
receiver position until the third round, Patrick and McDowell
should remain competitive with Tee Higgins and McLaurin. The duo
is also as deep at tight end as any team in the league, as Dalton Kincaid and Hunter Henry were solid values in the double-digit
rounds.
What I did not like: The Patrick and McDowell
duo did a fine job building this team, but the lack of a truly
elite receiver stands out - they have a very good and deep group,
however - as does what is behind Lawrence at quarterback. I think
Sam Howell
will surprise folks this season, but I don't believe he will be
able to keep the ship afloat should something happen to Lawrence.
As for the receivers, I just do not see 100-catch or 10-touchdown
upside with any of them. (Again, something will typically give
when a team goes RB-RB at the start of the draft.) After McLaurin,
this team's other four top receiver picks (Higgins, Pickens, Brandin
Cooks and Jakobi
Meyers) all play second fiddle on their own NFL teams.
8. Gary Kuhr
What I like: Kuhr was able to secure more than his fair share
of proven playmakers - with high floors and high upsides - without
needing to reach for them. Austin Ekeler led all non-quarterbacks
in scoring last season and finished as the RB2 behind Jonathan Taylor in 2021. The industry as a whole is down on Davante Adams
for good reason, but it will likely take a multi-game injury for
him not to live up to his WR10 draft cost. I expect Lamar Jackson
to have his best season since his 2019 MVP campaign, while Amari Cooper is more than capable of being a fantasy team's second wideout.
Diontae Johnson (WR30 in this draft) only needs better TD luck
to be a top-20 receiver and Elijah Moore - along with Treylon Burks - was my other WR4 target in the eighth round.
I believe David
Montgomery will have a better year than Cam
Akers, but Kuhr did well to pair the volume Akers should get
with the TD upside Montgomery should have. Kuhr also nailed the
double tap at tight end in the ninth and 10th rounds, in my opinion.
While Tyler Higbee
and Greg Dulcich
could easily disappoint for multiple reasons, there is also a
strong possibility both finish as low-end TE1s. Kuhr also did
well to secure quality depth behind Jackson, as I am willing to
bet on "angry" Aaron
Rodgers as my QB2 in any draft and Bryce
Young.
What I did not like: This team's success relies heavily on some
older players doing what they did last year despite big changes
taking place around them. I do not have many questions regarding
Jackson or Montgomery. What I do have questions about is if Ekeler
will continue to be relied on so heavily in the passing game.
(Last year's 107 catches were 37 more than he had in 2021.) How
much of a drop-off will Adams have going from Derek Carr to Jimmy Garoppolo? How much will Cooper be hurt statistically by the arrival
of Elijah Moore? How much better is Akers' situation now than
it was last year? (He feasted on some poor run defenses down the
stretch.) How much better will the Pittsburgh offense be so Johnson
can find the end zone a handful of times? Some of these questions
will be answered in the way Kuhr wants them to be answered, but
Adams is probably the one player he cannot afford to have disappoint
him.
9. Dan Williamson/Theo Gremminger/John Daniel - GOAT District
What I like: It is important to remember this league requires
only two receiver starters and features two flexes. In CeeDee Lamb and Keenan Allen, the GOAT District has a pair of likely
100-catch receivers in offenses with high TD upside. In Drake London and Christian Kirk, they have a pair of likely 80-catch
receivers in the flex spots with Jordan Addison - likely a 60-catch
player himself at worst - to fill in when necessary. I even like
each of their last three receiver picks (Marvin Mims, Alec Pierce
and John Metchie). This team has my vote for having the best receivers
in the league from top to bottom.
Mark Andrews is someone I will be targeting in all of my drafts
over the next month-plus. He is someone I hope will slip to me
in the second round if I do any more tight end premium drafts
and in the third round in more conventional formats. I do not
expect him to go toe-to-toe with Kelce, but I do expect him to
rival the production he enjoyed in 2021. Justin Fields was the
last of the quarterback with sky-high upside to be selected and
a strong pick by Williamson, Gremminger and Daniel given the way
they started their draft.
What I did not like: There is a belief in the
fantasy community nowadays - especially in high-stakes circles
- that RB2 is the one weakness managers do not mind having coming
out of a draft. Williamson, Gremminger and Daniel will be the
best test case for that in this league, as little exists at running
back on this roster behind James
Conner. Yes, Zach
Charbonnet has RB1 upside if Kenneth
Walker misses time. Yes, Devon
Achane will hit big at times. With that said, I would not
want to go into a season knowing I need consistent contributions
from either one right away. Beyond Charbonnet, I struggle to see
a realistic path in which any of the other running backs on this
roster carve out consistent RB2 value even if the starter on their
NFL team goes down. In addition, we have not accounted for the
likelihood yet that Conner will miss multiple games - as he has
in every one of his six NFL seasons. Worse yet, he is now stuck
on arguably the worst team in the league, so his usual TD upside
may not be there.
10. Gary Knight
What I like: This is one of my least favorite teams, although
Knight's squad has some pieces I like a lot. I have no problem
with Amon-Ra St. Brown-Saquon Barkley start other than the order
the picks were made. St. Brown does not feel like a first-round
lock to me this year for a multitude of reasons that I will address
in the coming weeks (I would have preferred Garrett Wilson or
Stefon Diggs), while Barkley should probably be considered a first-round
lock in my mind. I also believe Deebo Samuel will live up to his
third-round price tag (although I would have preferred Calvin Ridley). If Miles Sanders assumes the workload that the coaching
staff believes he will, he will make for a fine RB2. I will probably
not roster Javonte Williams in many - if any - leagues this year,
but the eighth round feels like about the right time to take the
gamble on him being the rare Year 1 post-ACL success story.
What I did not like:Kyle Pitts will prove to be the generational
talent that he was hyped to be in the 2021 draft … when
he gets league-average or better play at quarterback. Taking him
over Darren Waller and George Kittle is highly questionable at
best, as he needs many things to go right for him to finish as
the fourth overall tight end in 2023. Jake Ferguson - Knight's
TE2 pick in the 14th round - has a realistic shot of out-producing
Pitts. Deshaun Watson could easily rejoin the elite quarterback
club, but I am not so confident in that belief that I would settle
for C.J. Stroud and Mac Jones as my backups in a 20-round best-ball
draft. Gabe Davis had virtually nothing go right for him in 2022
and somehow still finished as the WR35 in this format last year.
Yet, I still do not want him as a WR3 on my teams this year given
the increased competition for targets he is bound to face from
Dalton Kincaid, James Cook and maybe even Khalil Shakir. My reaction
to the Davis pick is similar to that of the rest of Knight's receiver
selections: too many secondary options that are more likely to
produce a lot more bust days than boom days.
11. Jim Coventry - RotoWire
What I like: If any team rivals Gutierrez's or the GOAT District's
top three receivers, it may be Coventry's group of A.J. Brown,
Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams. Coventry made an already strong
position group even stronger by adding Chris Godwin and JuJu Smith-Schuster
in the sixth and 10th rounds, respectively. Coventry has enough
firepower and upside with this group to win the league. Joe Burrow's
calf injury is a slight concern right now, but I would expect
Cincinnati to treat this situation with kid gloves and let him
take the next month off to get right. Either way, Coventry did
well to get Daniel Jones' rushing upside just in case. Considering
he did not address the tight end position until Round 11, Coventry
did well to get one of my top TE2 targets in this draft in Juwan Johnson. Had the draft fallen a different way for me, I would
have been thrilled to land Antonio Gibson as my RB2 in the seventh
round. Coventry also smartly secured some high-end running back
handcuffs in the double-digit rounds with Tyler Allgeier and D'Onta Foreman.
What I did not like: Coventry's WR-WR start from the 11th spot
eliminated almost any possibility he would land one of the nine
or 10 running backs that are generally considered to have the
most upside this season. While a strong case can be made that
Travis Etienne can finish as a top 10 back, I have him as my RB18
in large part due to the expected work he will lose to rookie
Tank Bigsby. To be fair, Coventry probably does not need Etienne
to be any better than RB18 with the amount of upside he has everywhere
else, but Bigsby could steal significant work as a receiver and
at the goal line. I would have opted for Breece Hall or even Aaron Jones instead.
My only other nitpick is James Cook as his third back, although
he is almost certain to beat his RB28 price tag at 8.02. So how
can that be a bad thing? It has something to do with the first
two backs he selected. Etienne will almost certainly be at least
a serviceable RB2, but I think his ceiling could be capped. The
Commanders are talking up Gibson's role once again, but can we
project him into the Jerick McKinnon role in this offense just
because his new offensive coordinator is Eric Bieniemy? Buffalo
is also talking up Cook as a three-down back, yet he is coming
off a 110-touch rookie season. The odds are already stacked against
him holding up all season as a 190-pound back, which probably
helps explain why he has never handled more than 140 touches in
a year dating back to his time at the University of Georgia. His
supporters will see him as a discount version of Jahmyr Gibbs.
His detractors will focus mostly on his size and what figures
to be a relatively light workload. The odds are that at least
one of Gibson and Cook will hit, but there is at least a small
chance all three running backs fail to live up to their draft
positions for a variety of reasons.
12. Brian Covert (Killer Clowns)
What I like: Especially for someone picking at the 1-2 turn,
it is hard to draw up a better start to a draft than Stefon Diggs,
Nick Chubb, Calvin Ridley and Justin Herbert. There is at least
a decent chance that Covert landed a top-five quarterback, a likely
top-five running back (with overall RB1 upside) and two top-10
receivers. Covert also gave himself two very good flex options
each week in Brandon Aiyuk and Jahan Dotson. While the consistency
for both players could be lacking on run-oriented offenses attached
to good defenses, both players have the talent to overcome it
as well. David Njoku is almost certain to beat his TE10 price
tag. Covert also did well to land a pair of solid backup quarterbacks
in Jared Goff and Brock Purdy and a pair of high-upside backup
tight ends in Chig Okonkwo and Sam LaPorta. Even with Tim Patrick's
season-ending Achilles injury, Covert's depth at receiver - not
to mention quarterback and tight end - is very impressive.
What I did not like: Covert would likely be the first to admit
if his team fails to win the league, it will likely be the result
of his running backs not holding up their end of the deal after
Chubb. Alexander Mattison may be one of the most polarizing fantasy
picks this season. This comes after years of living a charmed
life of being the guy who produces like a RB1 just about every
time Dalvin Cook missed a game or two. It will not be as simple
as giving Mattison the 303 touches Cook leaves behind, nor can
the expectation be that he would be as productive with those touches
if he received that many anyway. I am firmly not on board with
Jerick McKinnon being a fantasy RB3 this season either. Most NFL
teams only carry three running backs on the game-day roster (four
from those that roster a fullback), and it appears Isiah Pacheco
and Deneric Prince will grab two of those spots. The team talked
up Clyde Edwards-Helaire's offseason work, and the team probably
still wants to give their former first-round pick another chance
to prove why he was worth the investment. Further consider that
Kansas City now has players like Kadarius Toney and Richie James
to handle some of the short and behind the line of scrimmage targets.
I do not think it is a lock McKinnon makes the team.
