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![]() Football Is a Collision Sport
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By Steve Schwarz | 7/4/25 |
To win your fantasy football league, your players have to survive 17 games. OK, really only 16 games since most leagues don’t play Week 18. Still, that assignment isn’t easy. Because, while basketball is a contact sport, football is a collision sport. And the facts are… your fantasy players can’t score from the bench, or the blue medical tent. As has been frequently said – “the best ability is
availability.” Let’s start with the quarterback position. Are running quarterbacks more vulnerable to injury than pocket passers? I believe the answer is - no. Is a pocket passer easier to hit because the defense knows where he will be (exactly five or seven steps behind the center)? Is a running quarterback safer from the big hit because he’s on the run? In the table below are all the quarterbacks who ran the ball at least 75 times last season.
Six of the eight quarterbacks didn’t miss a single game. Jalen Hurts missed one game due to injury and one due to coach’s decision (Week 18). Anthony Richardson missed six games, four due to injury and two when Head Coach Shane Steichen chose to start Joe Flacco. That’s a 96.2 start percentage. Compare this to the 24 other current starters in the league – 306 of 362 or 84.5 percent. Conclusion; it’s likely your running quarterback will play more games than your non-elusive, pocket-passing quarterback. That doesn’t mean you shouldn’t draft Joe Burrow or Baker Mayfield, just that you should be prepared to play a game or two without him. Burrow has played 17 games one time in five seasons, while Mayfield has played every game in two of seven seasons. Perhaps draft a decent backup a round earlier than normal. On to running backs. Backs take a hit on almost every play. If they aren’t running the ball, they could be blocking a guy bigger and stronger than they are.
Of the 34 No.1 start-worthy running backs in the league (I included David Montgomery and both Bucs RBs), they played 440 of 508 possible games (minus coaching decisions). That’s 86.6 percent. Eleven of the 34 missed three games or more (32.4%). Three key players (Christian McCaffrey, Isiah Pacheco and Kenneth Walker) missed six or more games (8.8%). Conclusion; If you drafted only three running backs you can expect at least one of them to miss four weeks (three games due to injury and a bye) and the others to miss two weeks (one week and a bye). Unless you are in a league with short rosters, draft at least four running backs. Now, let’s take a look at the receiver position. You would think they would be a healthier group, because they primarily play outside and away from the big monsters on the line. But they are also more susceptible to more leg injuries; hamstrings, calf injuries, groins and ankles. Additionally, they put themselves in vulnerable position while making catches over the middle and frequently get blindsided by linebackers, pursuing from behind. In total, the top 71 receivers played 1005 games and missed 193 due to injuries (83.9%). Twenty-eight of the 71 wideouts missed three games or more due to injury (39.4%) including four of the top-five ranked by fantasy points-per-game (Rashee Rice, Chris Godwin, Puka Nacua and Tee Higgins). If availability is indeed most important, then Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson and Amon-Ra St. Brown must be given bonus value for playing every game in 2024. For their careers, St. Brown’s play percentage is the highest of the trio 97.1% followed by Chase 92.3 and JJ 90.6%. But also don’t count out Mike Evans, who has played in 167 of 180 over his 11-year career, playing 92.8% of the time and obviously giving consistently good production (17.2 FPts/G). Or Terry McLaurin who has played in every game for the past four seasons, 97 out of 100 for his career, and just had the best season of his career (82-1,096-13) with a rookie quarterback who will only get better. “Scary Terry” currently has a fourth-round ADP (35.7) and might be a huge bargain at that level. Others who benefit from always being available; Garrett Wilson (51-of-51), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (34-of-34), Drake London (50-of-51 games), CeeDee Lamb (81-of-84), D.J. Moore (114-of-116), Jayden Reed (33-of-34) and Zay Flowers (33-of-34). Three rookie receivers played all 17 games last season – Brian Thomas Jr., Marvin Harrison Jr. and Rome Odunze. Thomas certainly looked like an elite player (16.5 FPts/G) and playing every game doesn’t hurt his fantasy value. The other two, while always out there, need to step up their game a bit. Conclusion; as the most injury-prone group of the three, it’s probably a better strategy if you choose at least five receivers at your draft. Finally, the tight end position. They seem to be mostly immune to the injury bug. Twenty-seven tight ends played at least 15 games and nine played all 17 games. The only highly-ranked tight ends, who dealt with significant injuries, were David Njoku, Dallas Goedert and Evan Engram. If you need to be thin at a position, make it tight end. |
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