Notes: - All games will be available Friday
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning
Although it hasn’t quite mirrored the meteoric rise of Rashee
Rice last season, Worthy has seen his usage steadily increase.
Over his first 10 games, the rookie was targeted four times or
less six times. In the last five games, Worthy has seen 8.2 targets
per game on average with back-to-back weeks with 11 each. The
Chiefs also continue to sprinkle him in via the running game.
While they haven’t unlocked his downfield capabilities, KC is
prioritizing getting the ball in his hands quickly and letting
him use his speed to make things happen. The numbers are still
mostly middling -- he is averaging 62 yards per game in his last
six with two touchdowns -- but the potential is there. The Steelers
have dealt with injuries in the secondary, so we’ll see if they
can track Worthy on Christmas Day. The rookie has the potential
to deliver WR3 (or even WR2) value.
After suffering a nasty looking ankle sprain against the Browns
in Week 15, there were questions whether Mahomes (ankle) would
even suit up six days later for a Saturday game with the Texans.
He did. Not only that, he even looked spry, turning five runs
into 33 yards and a touchdown. The passing numbers were mediocre
(260 yards, 1 TD, 0 INTs), which has been a season-long issue.
Outside of a nice stretch in November when he passed for three
TDs three times in four games, Mahomes has just four multi-score
efforts in his other 11 outings. The Steelers own the No. 20 pass
defense, allowing 220.7 yards per game, making Mahomes a fringe
QB1 candidate.
It seemed like the Chiefs were ratcheting up Pacheco to resume
his bell cow role when he went from eight touches in his return
to 16 the following week. In two games since, however, he’s
had 14 and 11 touches, respectively, and with the Chiefs playing
for the third time in 11 days it seems unlikely that he’d
be leaned on this Wednesday. Hunt has trended the opposite way.
He had 15 total touches in Pacheco’s first two games back
and has followed that with 29 the last two. Hunt has been the
more effective producer in those games, outgaining Pacheco 128
yards to 72 and scoring the lone TD between the two. Expect another
timeshare situation in Week 17, devaluing both players to no more
than middling RB3s or flex options.
KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Facing the NFL’s top-ranked run defense, the Steelers wound up
using Warren, the usual change-of-pace back, much more than Harris,
typically the bruising, early down option. Warren ended the divisional
showdown in Baltimore with 92 yards on 17 touches while Harris
managed 42 yards on nine carries. This week, they square off against
the Chiefs, which are third in the league against the run (91.4
yards per game). Do we see a similar approach from Pittsburgh
on Christmas Day? Or do they go back to a traditional split with
Harris getting more of the work? That’s the conundrum. As with
the Chiefs, this is a situation where neither back can be considered
more than a RB3/flex.
In three games without Pickens, Wilson has averaged 168 yards
and 1.67 TDs. It’s possible Pickens returns, but even in
six games with the mercurial wideout available, Wilson only really
had two big outings: 195 yards and 3 TDs versus Washington, and
414 yards and 3 TDs against the Bengals. Granted, the passing
game is the most effective way to attack Kansas City, which has
injury problems of their own in the secondary, but Wilson’s
track record makes relying on him a very dicey move. Unless your
alternatives are exceptionally poor, you should stay away from
the veteran QB.
Zay Flowers’ fantasy production hasn’t exactly been
up to par in recent weeks, clearing 15.0 PPR points just once
since Week 10. However, his underlying metrics still look good.
Flowers has accounted for at least 28 percent of the team’s
targets three times in the last month. With Lamar Jackson in the
midst of the best season of his career as a passer, a player who
can draw upwards of 30 percent of the targets each week is well
worth a spot in fantasy lineups.
After being labeled as a massive bust through the first month
of the season, Mark Andrews has found his footing down the stretch.
He’s the TE6 across the full season and comes in averaging
13.6 PPR points per game since Week 10.
The biggest concern with Andrews throughout the season has been
his route participation. Even with his recent success, Andrews
has cracked an 80-percent route participation just once in the
last six weeks while typically running 50-60 percent of the routes.
Given his limited usage, Andrews’ fantasy value is largely
driven by his usage in the red zone. This doesn’t lead to
the most consistent production, but Andrews has seen an endzone
target in four straight weeks and the Ravens have the league’s
No. 3 scoring offense. Andrews is a threat to score every week,
making him a clear TE1 option.
If Zay Flowers is unable to suit up, Rashod Bateman will serve
as the Ravens’ de facto WR1, making him a very appealing
Flex option. Even if Flowers takes the field, Bateman is a viable
boom-bust Flex candidate.
Bateman has carved out a role as the Ravens’ downfield
playmaker. In his last three full games, Bateman has seen six
deep targets (targets 20-plus yards downfield). He has turned
these looks into four receptions, 123 yards, and four touchdowns.
This downfield connection with Jackson can lead to Bateman having
an explosive day in fantasy any given week.
Fade: N/A
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.5
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
C.J. Stroud is in the midst of a serious sophomore slump. You
can try to pin his struggles on a variety of factors, but the
reality of the situation is that he’s not producing in fantasy.
It has now been 12 weeks since Stroud finished as a top-10 quarterback.
It’s hard to lean on a quarterback who is in a slump like
this, but Stroud could break out of that slump this week. The
Ravens are a top-5 matchup for quarterbacks and have the league’s
31st-ranked pass defense. Baltimore has allowed over 330 passing
yards five times this season and if the Stroud-Collins connection
could get going, Stroud could clear 330 yards for the third time
this season.
An injury to Tank Dell elevates the outlook for Dalton Schultz.
As previously mentioned, you can throw all over this Baltimore
secondary and Schultz can easily be a piece of Houston’s success
through the air.
After Dell went down early in the third quarter, Schultz drew
a team-high four targets across the rest of the game. He finished
with a season-high eight targets and 15.5 PPR points on the day.
Schultz has proven to be a legitimate target earner throughout
his career and he’ll have the opportunity to step up with
the Texans devoid of weapons.
A situation like what we’re seeing in the Houston WR room
serves as a reminder that wide receivers are not the same as running
backs when it comes to replaceable fantasy production.
When a starting running back goes down with an injury, the backup
can oftentimes be inserted and deliver relatively similar numbers
in fantasy. This is not the same at wide receiver. Targets must
be earned and it requires talent to get open on routes and draw
targets. John Metchie and Xavier Hutchinson have never proven
to be target earners and Robert Woods is now 32 years old. Fade
this trio in crucial Week 17 matchups.
With Kenneth Walker (ankle) sustaining an ankle injury this past
Sunday, Charbonnet should be in line to handle the bulk of the
running back duties Thursday night, though Kenny McIntosh has
seen an uptick in usage recently. In four games missed by Walker
this season, the second-year back has averaged 109 yards and scored
six times. That’s RB1 type production. The risk here is that Charbonnet
is banged up, dealing with an oblique injury in the lead up to
Week 16 and now being listed as limited in practice with an elbow
issue. The Bears rank 27th in run defense on the year (134.1 yards/game),
and they’ve looked even worse since Matt Eberflus was fired following
their Thanksgiving loss. Assuming he plays, Charbonnet has serious
potential.
Knocked from the Week 15 game due to a knee injury, Smith answered
the bell against the Vikings, passing for 314 yards, 3 TDs, and
2 INTs in a hard-fought loss. He’ll need to turn around
on that balky knee and play on short rest versus a Bears team
that has scarcely been competitive in recent weeks. There’s
been a serious lapse in pass defense, and Chicago now ranks 23rd
in that department, giving up 225.2 yards per game through the
air. Smith has the weapons to take advantage of the Bears, but
this feels like a game where Plan A would be to lean on Charbonnet/McIntosh
and have the veteran quarterback pick his spots. Despite delivering
in Week 16, remember that Smith has thrown one or zero TD passes
in 12 of 15 games. While there’s a little upside, the veteran
is difficult to trust.
Fade: N/A
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
Over the six games since the Bears replaced Shane Waldron with
Thomas Brown, Moore has racked up 43 receptions with a minimum
of six in each outing. Clearly, finding ways to get the ball in
his hands is central to the weekly game plan. The big plays have
been largely absent, however -- he's averaged less than 10 yards
per catch four times in those six games, including the last three,
and hasn't found the end zone since Week 12. The Seahawks feature
a decent secondary, but with Chicago routinely falling way behind
they’ve been seeing plenty of room underneath, which is
where Moore does his work. You can trust him in your lineup as
a solid WR3.
As noted above, the Bears continue to dig themselves a deep hole
early in games; in their last four, they’ve been collectively
outscored 80-14 in the first half. It speaks to ongoing struggles
on both sides of the ball. The side effect has actually been good
for fantasy owners, though, as it has allowed the Bears to rack
up consolation yardage and touchdowns. It’s the reason Williams
has become a semi-permanent resident of the “on the fence”
designation. His numbers are solid, throwing for 334 yards and
2 TDs versus the Lions last Sunday, but the key to that success
has largely been defensive indifference. That’s a tough
thing to rely on.
It’d be a bit of hyperbole to characterize Odunze’s
debut campaign as a rollercoaster, but the rookie has lacked consistency,
both from one game to the next and even within the same game.
That was on display versus Detroit in Week 16 when he logged four
receptions for 77 yards -- his third-best total of 2024 -- but
lost a fumble to contribute to the team’s early deficit.
While Odunze has had moments, Moore sees more consistent involvement,
and Allen has been the one to shine in recent games with the Bears
playing from behind. At best, Odunze is a risky lottery ticket
with a modest ceiling.
