Notes: - All games will be available Friday
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Injury notes, Lines and Totals updated Sunday morning
Cowboys @ Commanders- (Caron) Line: DAL -9.5 Total: 50.5
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.5
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
The Cowboys sustained their third-straight loss this past week
when they fell to the Chargers, but it's hard to put the blame
on Dak Prescott. He continued his excellent statistical season
by passing the 4,000-yard mark during the contest while also reaching
28 touchdowns. Prescott has been a borderline elite option all
season long and with a matchup against the Commanders on the horizon,
it's tough to find reasons to bench him for your championship
game. The only real worry would be that the Cowboys opt to bench
him late in a blowout, turning to Joe Milton in the fourth quarter,
as they did this past week. However, another multi-score loss
seems unlikely in a matchup against the Commanders whose offense
will be on their third string quarterback. Fire up Prescott as
a top-half QB1.
Wide receiver George Pickens was on a bit of a cold streak heading
into Week 16 as he had failed to reach even 10 PPR fantasy points
in back-to-back games, but he got back on the right track with
a huge, seven-catch, 130-yard performance that included a touchdown.
He also reached nine targets in the contest, adding to his impressive
stretch of seeing at least that many passes come his way in seven
of his past eight games. Pickens is a high-volume play who's facing
one of the league's worst secondaries. He joins CeeDee Lamb as
a WR1 for fantasy in this one.
Javonte Williams has been dealing with a neck injury for a while
now and while he was able to play through it and still lock a
nearly 60-percent snap count this past week, it's hard not to
notice that he also saw his fewest touches of the season in the
Cowboys' Week 16 loss to the Chargers. Williams' saw just nine
carries and added two receptions in the contest—a significant
drop-off from his usual usage—as his previous season low
of touches was 14 back in Week 8. Not coincidentally, this low
usage also led to Williams failing his fantasy managers and producing
fewer than 10 fantasy points for just the third time all season.
We should expect that Williams will continue to lead the Cowboys'
backfield this to close out the season, but the team has been
leaning on backup Malik Davis more in recent weeks, and there's
a chance that the trend could continue, especially if the game
gets out of hand one way or another. Williams is still an RB2,
but his floor is now a bit of a concern whereas it was previously
his biggest asset throughout the first three-quarters of the season.
Jake Ferguson's early-season dominance will almost certainly
allow him to finish the season as a top-12 scorer at the position,
if not top-five, but it's hard to overstate just how poor he's
been throughout the second half of the season. Since his huge
two-touchdown performance against the Broncos back in Week 7,
Ferguson has averaged just over 7.3 PPR fantasy points per game.
That total is far from TE1 range despite the fact that he's been
in one of the league's highest-scoring offenses.
With the Cowboys now out of playoff contention, there's a looming
concern that the team may opt to get a better look at the tight
ends further down the depth chart in these final two games. This
isn't to say that Ferguson will be overtaken as the tight end
to start in Dallas, but it could just mean fewer total snaps for
him as the team tries to gain information for future roster moves.
Ferguson has become a borderline unstartable option to begin
with. The only reason to consider him for fantasy this week is
because he's facing the Commanders and their terrible defense,
but the same could be said for any number of other tight ends
who are probably available on your league's waiver wire.
DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
No Brainers: N/A
Update: Chris
Rodriguez Jr has been ruled Out due to an illness.
Jacory Croskey-Merritt's breakout performance in Week 15 had
us unsure about Chris Rodriguez's role upon his return to the
lineup in Week 16, but things seemed to get right back to normal
with Rodriguez taking the lion's share of the touches while leaving
the scraps to the other backs in the offense. Sure, the rookie
was able to get into the end zone once on eight carries for 25
yards, but it was Rodriguez who carried the ball 15 times for
63 yards and a touchdown of his own.
It's fair to say that Rodriguez lacks the upside to be a very
exciting fantasy option, but this matchup against the Cowboys
is one that opposing backs have been exploiting all season long.
Dallas has conceded the seventh-most fantasy points to the position
and Rodriguez himself even scored a touchdown against them when
these teams played back in Week 7. There are quite a few injuries
throughout the league and Rodriguez isn't a particularly hot name
for fantasy, so take a look at your waiver wire—he just
might be available and worth a spot-start if you're in trouble
at running back.
Terry McLaurin has been hit-or-miss since returning to the Commanders'
lineup back in Week 13. He got out to a huge start with a 14-target
game in Week 13, but things have since taken a dramatic turn for
the worst as he's seen just 14 total targets over the three games
since.
There's no question that McLaurin is still the Commanders' top
weapon in their passing game, but with the team now needing to
turn to third-stringer Josh
Johnson following injuries to Jayden Daniels and Marcus Mariota,
it's tough to believe that McLaurin is going to get the volume
he'd need to provide a truly difference-making fantasy total for
his managers.
A matchup against the Cowboys has been the cure for much worse
situations this season, though, so all hope may not be lost.
Fantasy managers may still have some hope for Terry McLaurin,
but unfortunately the same cannot really be said about Deebo Samuel.
Samuel has now failed to reach even eight PPR fantasy points in
three straight contests and he's seen 10 or more targets just
twice all season. He hasn't seen more than seven passes come his
way in a game since Terry McLaurin returned to the lineup back
in Week 13.
The Cowboys have been destroyed by almost every opposing passing
game they've faced all season and they're by far the league's
worst defense against wide receivers, but a wide receiver who's
seeing mediocre volume with a third-string quarterback just doesn't
inspire much confidence, even in the best of matchups.
With the Lions’ vaunted ground game stuck in neutral against
the Steelers, Goff took it upon himself to move the offense. For
the day, Goff set season highs in pass attempts (54), completions
(34), and passing yards (364). It marked the fourth time this
season the Pro Bowl snub has thrown for 300-plus yards with three
or more touchdowns and no interceptions. While he wasn’t quite
as productive the last time he faced Minnesota (284 yards, 2 TDs,
0 INTs), the game situation was similar to what he just went through
with Pittsburgh where Detroit couldn’t get their running game
working -- that day, the combo of Gibbs and David Montgomery finished
with 65 yards on 20 carries. The Vikings have been playing strong
defense recently, though their offense might be hamstrung by the
presence of Max Brosmer, which could lead to issues possessing
the ball and maybe wear down the defense. This is a big game for
Detroit, which is eliminated with a loss, and it feels like one
where Goff will step up. He’s a potential midrange QB1.
While Gibbs was able to salvage his dismal day on the ground
with a 10-66-1 effort as a pass catcher, Montgomery had no such
luck. He finished Week 16 with a season-low four carries for 14
yards, and it also marked the first time all season he wasn’t
targeted in the passing game. Further clouding his Week 17 prospects,
Montgomery has been held out of practice due to illness. On the
flip side, Montgomery was the more effective back in the previous
matchup with Minnesota, posting 50 yards and a touchdown. Plus,
if his illness abates, he should be fresh on Christmas day after
being used so sparingly versus the Steelers. Add it all up, and
Montgomery is a risk/reward flex.
Fade: N/A
DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.22
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.2
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
By any metric, it has been a disappointing season for Jefferson.
Taking out 2023, when he missed seven games due to injury, Jefferson
has averaged 1,590 yards and 8.75 TDs. This year, he still needs
83 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark. Don’t be surprised
if the Vikings chase that mark here. Detroit’s secondary
has been decimated by injury, and it should be much easier for
Max Brosmer to operate the offense at home versus his debut in
Seattle. Jefferson had a 6-47-1 line in his earlier matchup with
the Lions, which was the last time he scored a touchdown. You
still can’t count on him as more than a WR3, but coming
off a 6-85-0 effort versus the Giants you should get him in your
lineup.
Right up front, Hockenson has been a nonparticipant in practice
this week due to a shoulder injury, so his status for Christmas
is very much up in the air. Even if he does play, the veteran
has hardly been a bastion of production. So, why is he here? Two
reasons: 1) one of his best games of 2025, a 6-59-0 line, came
in Brosmer’s first start, and 2) he scored a touchdown in
the earlier matchup with Detroit. There’s always a little
extra juice when going against a former team, so if Hockenson
is up this Thursday, there’s some high-risk potential for
him to post playable numbers.
With J.J. McCarthy (hand) ruled out, Brosmer will make his second
career start. The first was a disaster: 126 yards, 4 sacks, 4
INTs, including a pick-six. Don’t expect a repeat. It should
be very beneficial for the rookie to play at home as opposed to
in front of a raucous Seahawks crowd, and Detroit lacks the pass
rush to affect him the same way. Still, while better results should
be expected from Brosmer, he’s far too much of an unknown
commodity to consider him for your lineup.
Courtland Sutton (6-86-1) picked up his 7th touchdown of the
season — and his 3rd in four weeks — against the Jaguars
in Week 16. Sutton has now posted at least 59 receiving yards
in five straight games. The league’s 16th-best wide receiver
in FPts/G, he draws a Chiefs team that has limited opposing WRs
primarily by allowing just 10 touchdowns to the position. However,
this is a matchup where Denver is likely to enjoy a major edge
in field position. That sets up frequent trips into the red zone,
which directly benefits Sutton’s scoring profile. He’s
a high-end WR2 for Thursday night.
Despite game script limiting RJ Harvey to just 7 rushing attempts
last week, he still managed a rushing touchdown for the 4th straight
game — and added 4 catches for 71 yards as a receiver. That
resulted in 20.1 FPts, his 3rd game with at least 19 FPts over
the last month. The Chiefs have generally been tough on running
backs, but their defensive slide has created massive volume opportunities
for opposing rushers. Since Week 13:
• Woody Marks handled 26 carries
• Omarion Hampton and Kimani Vidal combined for 27 carries
• Tony Pollard topped 100 rushing yards on 21 carries
• Tyjae Spears added 13 carries, 52 yards, and a touchdown
Over that span, five different backs have produced at least 10.2
FPts against Kansas City, and three have cleared 14.5 —
solid mid-RB2 territory.
Harvey has game script, time of possession, and field position
all leaning his way. Already producing like an RB1 since taking
over Denver’s backfield, he’s a Top 10 option in Week
17.
The Chiefs have given up very few ceiling games to opposing quarterbacks
— only three have cracked 20 FPts against them — and
there may be little incentive for Denver to push aggressively
in this matchup. If the Broncos control the game, Bo Nix could
lean conservative with more floor than ceiling. He’s a borderline
QB1 this week.
Troy Franklin followed his 17.8-point outing against Green Bay
with a respectable but modest 4-catch, 66-yard performance (8.6
FPts). Despite Pat Bryant’s return and 8-target involvement, Franklin
actually saw his snap rate increase to 64% — likely influenced
by Denver chasing points against Jacksonville.
Week 17 should look different. The Broncos are unlikely to ask
Nix to throw 47 times again, which caps Franklin’s volume
even with Bryant sitting out due to a concussion. Sitting WR41
in FPts/G, he’s best viewed as a WR4 versus Kansas City.
Fade: N/A
DEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
DEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
DEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
DEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12
Travis Kelce continues to fade as the season winds down. Whether
its age catching up, injuries across the offense, or the loss
of vertical threats, the result has been two separate 1-catch
games in recent weeks — something unheard of for peak-Kelce.
Losing Patrick Mahomes, and now going to a third-string quarterback,
makes it incredibly difficult to trust him in fantasy title week.
If there’s a sliver of hope, it’s matchup related. Denver’s defense
— despite dominating overall — has been surprisingly forgiving
against tight ends, allowing the 12th-most FPts/G. Brenton Strange
became the 7th tight end since Week 7 to score at least 10 FPts
against them. Kelce still offers check-down appeal, but his floor
is dangerously close to zero. He’s more TE2 than TE1 at this point,
even with injuries thinning the position.
Journeyman QB Chris Oladokun — a former seventh-round Steelers
pick — steps into a Chiefs offense that has effectively folded
up shop, with Rashee Rice and Tyquan Thornton joining Mahomes
and Gardner Minshew on IR. With limited weapons and a shaky line,
he faces a Denver front averaging over four sacks per game.
Oladokun has taken 5 sacks on just 21 dropbacks — and now
sees one of the league’s nastiest pass rushes. He’s
arguably the last QB you’d start this week.
In the backfield, Kareem Hunt gave up most of the snaps to Isiah
Pacheco (33 to 11) after taking an early safety in the Titans
loss. Pacheco continued to struggle on the ground (8-34-0), and
Denver has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards to running
backs.
Pacheco did show unexpected receiving life (6 catches for 41
yards), but that’s unlikely to repeat against a defense
allowing the fewest receiving yards to RBs. Both he and Hunt are
desperation plays at best.
Xavier Worthy caught just two passes on three targets last week
and added a meaningless 0-yard rush. His 41 yards basically matched
his season average (40.9). Losing time of possession, lacking
quarterback stability, and facing Pat Surtain II makes Worthy
a volatile dart throw — with more bust than boom.
