Cook played just over 60 percent of the snaps in Week 1, carrying
the ball 19 times and commanding a 13 percent target share. His
total touches were 22, compared to just four for Ray Davis and
two for Ty Johnson, solidifying his position as the primary back
in the Bills’ offense. Despite this heavy workload, Cook struggled
with efficiency, but we’ve seen him be reasonably productive in
the past when given opportunities.
In their 34-28 road victory over the Cardinals, the Bills threw
just 23 times, signaling their continued shift toward a more balanced
offense, which benefits Cook. He looks primed to receive 15 or
more touches per game, even though his usage near the end zone
may be limited. With Travis Etienne and Tank Bigsby combining
for 117 yards and a touchdown on 24 carries in Week 1, this seems
like a favorable matchup to get Cook into your lineup for Week
2.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid had a quiet Week 1, finishing with just
one catch for 11 yards on two targets. Many managers are already
concerned, but it's crucial not to overreact to one disappointing
game, especially from a young tight end. Kincaid still played
nearly 85 percent of the offensive snaps, a strong sign that he
remains heavily involved in the game plan. The Bills simply didn’t
pass enough in their Week 1 contest to give any of their pass-catchers
great fantasy production. However, it’s worth remembering
that when these teams met in Week 18 of the 2023 season, Kincaid
saw eight targets, catching seven for 84 yards. Given the Bills'
current lack of proven receiving options, expect Josh Allen to
look Kincaid’s way more often, making him a solid fantasy
option for Week 2.
The Bills lost both Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason,
which made it no surprise when they selected wide receiver Keon
Coleman with their first pick at No. 33 overall in the 2024 NFL
Draft. While Coleman faced questions as a prospect, his early
progress is notable, leading the team in receiving in his debut.
He posted four receptions for 51 yards, capturing a 21 percent
target share and playing on over 72 percent of the team’s offensive
snaps. Though his 51 yards may not be overwhelming, his involvement
signals better production could be on the horizon. With fellow
rookie Brian Thomas Jr. having similar success against the Dolphins
in Week 1, Coleman could be a sleeper option for those looking
for a potential breakout game.
Shakir, a late-round sleeper pick for savvy fantasy managers,
made an impact in Week 1 with three receptions for 42 yards and
a touchdown. This performance exceeded expectations for those
who took the chance on starting him. However, the underlying stats
suggest caution moving forward. Shakir saw just three targets,
translating to a 13 percent target share, and only played 53 percent
of the Bills’ offensive snaps. While this was more playing time
than Curtis Samuel, the limited snap count raises concerns about
Shakir’s role in the offense.
Shakir operates primarily as an underneath option, making him
dependent on volume to produce consistent fantasy results. His
Week 1 touchdown isn't likely to be a regular occurrence, especially
given his sub-9.0 average depth of target from 2023. While the
Week 2 matchup against the Dolphins might push the Bills to air
it out more, Shakir’s limited involvement makes it risky
to trust him as a fantasy starter without seeing more consistent
usage in the offense.
BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8
In Week 1, Waddle continued to be a reliable contributor for
the Miami Dolphins, catching all five of his targets for 109 yards.
While the five targets might seem low for a player of his caliber,
it’s encouraging that he maximized every opportunity. Waddle
also led all Dolphins wide receivers in snaps, playing 51, showing
that Miami continues to rely heavily on him and Tyreek Hill as
their primary options in the passing game. No other Dolphins wide
receiver played more than 26 snaps, solidifying the highly consolidated
nature of Miami’s passing attack.
Tua Tagovailoa did distribute the ball more to running backs
and tight ends than usual in Week 1, which is worth monitoring
moving forward. Still, Waddle has established himself as a trustworthy
fantasy WR2. He’s been productive in his matchups against the
Bills, averaging 7.5 targets per game and notching two 100-yard
performances in five games. Given his consistent involvement and
the Dolphins’ dynamic offense, Waddle should remain a reliable
fantasy option.
With Raheem Mostert ruled out for Week 2, the Dolphins' backfield
is in flux, and both De’Von Achane and Jeff Wilson are players
to watch. Achane, who is dealing with an ankle injury, is trending
in the right direction, but his health has been a concern throughout
his early NFL career, even when splitting carries. If Achane plays,
his explosive ability makes him a must-start for most fantasy
managers, given his dynamic performance in 2023.
However, if Achane is limited or ruled out, Jeff Wilson could
see a significant uptick in his workload. Wilson, who played 11
snaps in Week 1 and carried the ball five times for 26 yards,
is poised to take on a larger role with Mostert sidelined. Depending
on Achane's health, Wilson might even lead the backfield in touches,
making him a solid RB3/Flex option for Week 2. This situation
requires close monitoring leading up to game time, but both backs
offer intriguing fantasy potential depending on the final injury
reports.
With Raheem Mostert sidelined and De'Von Achane dealing with
health concerns, Jaylen Wright is expected to make his NFL debut
in Week 2. The rookie was inactive in Week 1 but now finds himself
in a position to potentially see some snaps. However, fantasy
managers should be cautious about expecting significant involvement
for Wright just yet. Miami has shown more trust in Wilson, and
it’s likely that Wilson will handle the majority of touches
if Achane is active but limited.
Wright’s upside comes into play if Achane is ruled out,
which would open the door for him to contribute more meaningfully.
His speed and explosive playmaking fit the Dolphins’ offense
well, so while Wright is a risky Flex option this week, his potential
could make him a popular waiver wire add in the near future. Keep
an eye on how Miami's backfield shakes out, as Wright's role could
expand depending on Achane's availability.
It’s tough to be too excited about most players who match
up against the Cowboys, but fantasy managers who are in a tough
spot this week could turn to Saints wide receiver Rashid Shaheed
in Week 2. Shaheed led the Saints in targets (5) and yards (73)
while scoring an early touchdown in New Orleans’ blowout
victory over the Panthers in Week 1. Things could have even been
better had the Saints not gotten out to such a big lead so early
in the contest.
The Cowboys’ defense is a tough one that picked up right
where they left off at the end of 2023, locking down the Browns’
passing attack in Week 1. However, the Saints’ offense has
quite a few more weapons than the Browns do and Shaheed is a big
play threat who can make things happen on very few targets. If
his role continues to expand from where it did in Week 1 then
Shaheed could find himself being a weekly starter in fantasy.
Olave being “on the fence” this week doesn’t
mean that we should be benching him in favor of his teammate Rashid
Shaheed, but this is more to demonstrate that these two players
seem to be converging much more than we anticipated heading into
the season. It was only one week and the game script was very
odd with the Saints getting out to a commanding lead early, but
the fact that Olave saw just two targets (even though he caught
both of them for just 11 yards) is very concerning. It’s
not time to hit the panic button quite yet, but Olave might not
be the locked-in WR1 that many believed he was coming into the
season and this is a tough matchup against an excellent Cowboys
pass defense.
It’s tough to ever really predict when “the Taysom Hill game”
will be, but Hill played just 21 snaps in Week 1, trailing both
Foster Moreau (51 snaps) and Juwan Johnson (23 snaps) at tight
end. His usage is unique in that he did also get five carries
out of the backfield in those 21 snaps, but the Saints getting
out to an early lead meant that they were running the ball much
more than they might otherwise be if the game was more competitive.
The Cowboys are too good both offensively and defensively for
this to look like one of the Hill-heavy gameplans. There’s
always the risk that this is the week he scores two touchdowns
on six total touches, but it’s probably wise to look elsewhere
for tight end production as long as Foster Moreau, Juwan Johnson,
and even Alvin Kamara are healthy.
NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.17
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31
Lamb is still the unquestioned top dog in Dallas, but with tight
end Jake Ferguson unlikely to play following a knee injury, the
Cowboys’ already consolidated target distribution became even
less crowded heading into Week 2. The player who benefits most
from this is probably veteran wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who
caught four of the seven passes that came his way against the
Browns, resulting in 40 yards and Dak Prescott’s only touchdown
pass for the day.
Cooks is still a low-floor player who could easily turn in a
complete dud if the Cowboys’ offense struggles, but he’s
been a proven red zone weapon in this offense, so it would not
be at all surprising to see him sneak into the end zone for the
second straight week. If nothing else, he should be the team’s
second option on most passing downs, which is valuable in an offense
that moves the ball as much as Dallas does.
It’s still too early in the season to know for sure what the
touch distribution in the Cowboys backfield will shake out to
be, but after one game it appears that Ezekiel Elliott is narrowly
edging out Rico Dowdle as the team’s primary back as he played
32 snaps to Dowdle’s 28. More importantly, Elliott got the touch
near the goal line which resulted in a touchdown, which allowed
him to finish with a significantly more productive fantasy day.
The Saints completely locked down the Panthers’ running
game in Week 1, but Dallas’ offense is obviously much better,
so don’t expect it to be quite so easy this week. Even if
he’s unlikely to give you a 100-yard game anytime soon,
Elliott is still more than capable of falling into the endzone
once or twice in this one.
As mentioned above, Dowdle played the “1B” role in
the Cowboys backfield in Week 1 and unfortunately for those who
invested a late-round draft pick on him, he really didn’t
do much with the touches he got to show why he should be elevated
to “1A” status. This looks like it could be a pure
backfield split, which is ugly for fantasy, and unless he’s
getting the goal line or passing game work then Dowdle is not
the player we want to be relying on for fantasy purposes.
It was a mostly uninspired performance from the Raiders in Week
1 as they managed just 10 points in a road loss to the Chargers.
One bright spot, however, was the debut of Bowers, Las Vegas’
first-round pick back in April. The rookie was targeted a game-high
eight times, catching six passes for 58 yards. There were some
concerns in camp that his middling blocking skills would lead
to more snaps for Michael Mayer, but Bowers was a central part
of the Raiders’ passing attack. He’s a nice underneath option
for Gardner Minshew, and he could be busy in Week 2 as the Ravens
can get after the quarterback. He has low-end TE1 appeal with
upside.
The jury is still out on Las Vegas’ backfield. In Week
1, White totaled 15 touches for 46 yards. Mattison, meanwhile,
turned nine touches into 62 yards and a touchdown. The veteran
was an under-the-radar signing, coming off a disappointing season
as the featured back in Minnesota, but he has experience in the
blocking scheme the Raiders are using this year. White’s
reputation is built entirely on a handful of good games at the
tail end of last season when he took over for an injured Josh
Jacobs. White should still get higher usage, so he can be used
as a low-end RB3. Mattison has flex value and could emerge as
the season wears on.
Fade: N/A
LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.16
Likely was a force down the stretch in 2023, catching 21 passes
for 322 yards and 5 TDs over the final six weeks. So, it’s
not like his Week 1 performance came out of nowhere. Still, with
Andrews back and Henry there to anchor the backfield, the expectation
was that Likely would see a few looks at most. Instead, he was
Jackson’s primary target, catching nine of 12 passes for
111 yards and a touchdown -- he came within inches of hauling
in a second TD on the game’s final snap. Where do we go
from here? That remains to be seen, but it’s not unthinkable
that we’re witnessing a changing of the guard where Likely
overtakes Andrews in the passing hierarchy. Both are TE1s for
this weekend, and you can argue it’s Likely that has more
upside.
When the Ravens signed Bateman to an extension and let Odell
Beckham Jr. walk in free agency, it seemed to portend a larger
role going forward for the Minnesota alum. Now, that seems dubious.
Flowers was targeted 10 times in Week 1. He’s clearly WR1. If
Likely’s emergence is real, and it certainly appears to be, that
pushes the wideout down to being the fourth or fifth option depending
on where Justice Hill lands in a given week. You can never read
too much into Week 1, but there are troubling signs for Bateman’s
2024 outlook. Keep him benched this week.
Nabers may not have made headlines in Week 1, but his five catches
for 66 yards on seven targets should be promising for fantasy
managers. As the Giants head into a favorable matchup against
a struggling Washington defense, Nabers' performance stands out,
especially since he played 100 percent of the team's snaps. This
usage indicates that he's quickly becoming a focal point in the
Giants' offense, which, despite its issues, should make Nabers
a player to watch.
While Daniel Jones' inconsistent quarterback play makes Nabers
somewhat of a risky option, his physical talent and role within
the offense make him a solid upside play this week. With a great
matchup ahead, fantasy managers should consider starting him or
potentially trading him if they aren't ready to take the risk,
as others may value his high potential.
Singletary's Week 1 performance wasn't ideal as the Giants suffered
a brutal loss to the Vikings. Despite playing over 70 percent
of the snaps, Singletary saw just 10 carries for 37 yards and
caught four passes for a mere 15 yards. However, the key takeaway
is that Singletary established himself as the clear RB1 in the
Giants' backfield.
While Singletary isn't known for his pass-catching abilities
and could be at risk of being phased out in games where the Giants
fall behind, Week 2 offers a much more favorable matchup against
Washington. The Commanders allowed the Buccaneers to score 37
points and gave up nearly 100 rushing yards to Rachaad White and
Bucky Irving in Week 1. Assuming the Giants can keep the game
competitive, Singletary should see an increased workload and have
one of his better opportunities for production this season.
He's not a high-upside player, but this is one of the better
matchups he'll have, making him a solid RB2 or Flex option in
Week 2.
Robinson's Week 1 performance of six catches for 44 yards on
12 targets might seem promising at first glance, but it’s
important to recognize the context. The Giants were trailing by
a large margin for most of the game, and the Vikings' soft defense
in the second half allowed Robinson, with his low average depth
of target (aDOT), to rack up short receptions.
This inflated usage is unlikely to repeat in Week 2 against the
Commanders. While Washington’s defense struggled in Week
1, it’s unlikely that Robinson will see such high volume
again unless the Giants fall into another deep hole. His career
usage suggests he's more of a situational player, and his ceiling
remains limited, even in PPR formats.
As a result, Robinson is a risky fantasy option in Week 2, and
likely not someone to rely on unless you’re desperate for
a Flex play in PPR leagues.
NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.13
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
Jayden Daniels made a splash in his NFL debut, immediately showing
why he's a mid-to-high-end QB1 for fantasy. Despite a modest 184
passing yards in Week 1, his 16 carries for 88 yards and two rushing
touchdowns showcase the elite-level rushing ability that makes
him so valuable in fantasy football. Daniels’ dual-threat
capability gives him an incredibly high floor, especially when
he’s able to make plays with his legs even if his passing
is inconsistent. He’s a must-start quarterback, particularly
in matchups like Week 2 against the Giants, where his rushing
upside will be crucial. As the season progresses, if he can connect
better with his pass catchers, Daniels has the potential to deliver
monster weeks.
In the Commanders' backfield, Robinson emerged as the clear lead
runner in Week 1, carrying the ball 12 times compared to just
two carries for Austin Ekeler. Both backs were equally involved
in the passing game, with each seeing four targets, but Robinson’s
usage on the ground solidifies his role in a run-heavy Washington
offense. While the yardage total wasn’t impressive (40 yards on
12 carries), Robinson added a receiving element with 49 yards
and punched in a touchdown, giving him a productive fantasy day
despite the blowout loss to the Buccaneers.
Looking ahead to Week 2, Robinson’s role should expand
further if the Commanders can keep the game close or get a lead
against the Giants. Given their run-heavy approach and Robinson’s
role as the primary rusher, he’s a strong RB2 play, with
room for upside if Washington leans on the ground game even more.
McLaurin’s Week 1 performance was disappointing, especially
considering his significant snap share and the high-scoring nature
of the game between the Commanders and the Buccaneers. Despite
being the team's WR1 and leading Washington wide receivers in
snaps, McLaurin was targeted just four times and managed only
two catches for 17 yards. This lack of involvement is concerning,
particularly given the Commanders’ offensive game script,
which saw them trailing for most of the game.
Heading into Week 2, McLaurin faces a crucial matchup against
the Giants’ weak secondary. This game presents a significant
opportunity for McLaurin to rebound and prove his fantasy value.
If he can’t capitalize on this favorable matchup, it will
be tough to trust him as a reliable starter moving forward. Fantasy
managers should keep a close eye on his performance this week;
a strong showing is essential to restore confidence in his fantasy
outlook.
Ekeler’s fall from fantasy’s elite to being the RB2
in Washington would’ve been almost impossible to predict
going into last season, but that’s where things currently
stand. Ekeler did play nearly equal the number of snaps that Robinson
did in Week 1 and he was actually more productive on a per-touch
basis, but he saw just two carries on the day. Not only that,
but Ekeler didn’t even dominate the passing game work as
both players saw exactly four targets on the afternoon.
We may eventually see a shift in this, but for now, this looks
like Brian Robinson’s backfield with Ekeler being a complementary
piece. Fantasy managers should avoid Ekeler for now.
Preseason reports from Chargers’ beat reporters seemed to indicate
we would have a 1A/1B situation between J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards.
This played out almost perfectly on the field, with Dobbins playing
58 percent of the snaps and Edwards seeing 42 percent. But it
was Dobbins who shined brightest last week. He ripped off multiple
runs of 40-plus yards, looking like he had reclaimed his pre-injury
form. This backfield should quickly swing in Dobbins’ favor and
he should take advantage of a favorable matchup this week. The
Panthers allowed 132 rushing yards, 40 receiving yards and 2 TDs
to Saints running backs last week.
Rookie Ladd McConkey is in a very similar situation to Diontae
Johnson: he is earning targets at a high rate in an offense that
is unlikely to be particularly valuable for pass catchers. McConkey
saw the ball thrown his way on a ridiculous 33 percent of his
routes. This is incredibly bullish for a player in their first
NFL game. This won’t be the norm, but it’s a clear sign that McConkey
is becoming Justin Herbert’s top target as we had hoped. The only
thing that could hold him back against Carolina is a run-heavy
game plan.
If you drafted Palmer in the 10th-12th round, you may have thought
something along the lines of, “He’s going to be out there for
every play.” Well, this came true; Palmer ran a route on 98 percent
of Herbert’s dropbacks. But something else, that is far more important,
carried over from Palmer’s historical production profile and reared
its ugly head. Palmer is not a target earner. He ran the most
routes on the team but saw fewer targets than Quentin Johnston
(oof) and McConkey. He is off the radar as a fantasy starter,
even against Carolina, if he is going to be third in line for
targets.
LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6
Diontae Johnson had a disappointing debut in a Panthers uniform,
scoring just 3.9 PPR points. But it’s not time to panic just yet.
The thesis on Johnson was that he would be a high-level target
earner in a struggling offense. This held true on Sunday. Before
getting benched for the entire fourth quarter (due to the blowout),
Johnson garnered a 35-percent target share. The offense looked
poor in Week 1, but this is the same group that supported Adam
Thielen en route to a WR17 season. Don’t lose hope just yet.
It seemed like Hubbard would be the perfect candidate to lean
on as an early-season compiler. This could not have been further
from reality. Hubbard was on the field for 55 percent of snaps
but saw just 30 percent of the team’s rush attempts. In a putrid
offense like Carolina’s, a running back has to play a significant
role as a receiver or rack up 15 or so carries per week. Hubbard
is not going to do either of these things while splitting time
with Miles Sanders. He is a cut consideration in most leagues.
When you turn three catches into 125 yards and a touchdown, fantasy
owners are going to take notice. Whether they should is another
matter. Even though Pierce made some big catches, he’s probably
WR4 when everyone is healthy in Indy. To that end, WR Josh Downs
(ankle) returned to practice on Wednesday, and he has a shot to
make his 2024 debut in Lambeau Field. Rookie Adonai Mitchell was
also targeted more than Pierce in Week 1, though the results weren’t
there. For the time being, your best move is to treat what Pierce
did against the Texans as an outlier. Don’t start him this Sunday.
IND FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
IND FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
IND FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
IND FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21
As of this writing, QB Jordan Love (knee) has not been ruled
out for Week 2. After he suffered a sprained MCL at the end of
Week 1, however, the belief here is that Malik Willis will make
the start, and all designations are based on that. In such a scenario,
Reed feels like he’s the most likely to navigate a path to value.
He works out of the slot, has shown ability as a runner -- he
had a 33-yard touchdown run in Brazil -- and makes things happen
after the catch. Don’t be surprised if the Packers don’t have
several plays for Willis to specifically get the ball to Reed.
The second-year wideout can be used as a WR3 even without Love.
Lloyd (hamstring) was inactive in Week 1 with a hamstring injury
but has been at practice this week on a limited basis. In his
absence, Wilson filled the backup role behind Jacobs and was impressive,
carrying the ball four times for 46 yards. Again, assuming Love
is out this Sunday, the Packers are likely to lean more heavily
on the ground game, especially after watching Houston rush for
213 yards against Indianapolis in Week 1. Green Bay has never
been a team to lean on one back under Matt LaFleur, and they won’t
start doing it this Sunday, either. This is a game where whoever
the RB2 is could get a dozen touches or more, which could give
them flex value. Wilson seems more likely to fill that role here,
but keep an eye out for updates on Lloyd’s status.
Green Bay’s top deep threat is Watson, who scored a touchdown
in Week 1 but was otherwise quiet. He does have the kind of game-breaking
speed that could work on jet sweeps or reverses, but that has
been Reed’s domain since he was drafted. Don’t expect
a lot of downfield shots from Willis, which hurts Watson. The
same could be said of Wicks, who went without a catch in the opener.
There’s some interesting season-long upside with Wicks,
but not with Love out. You probably weren’t considering
Wicks for a starting spot to begin with, but Watson should be
parked on the bench as well.
Despite hanging 32 points on the Jets Monday night, Purdy failed
to throw a touchdown pass -- it was just the third time in 22
career starts that he hasn’t passed for a score, and the
first since his disastrous outing versus Baltimore on Christmas
night. While that was easily his worst outing last year, Purdy’s
visit to Minnesota wasn’t pretty, either, when he posted
272 yards, 1 TD, and 2 INTs in an upset loss. Expect more from
Purdy in his return to Minneapolis. Sure, the Vikings locked down
Daniel Jones in Week 1, but they’re not considered a top
defense. Plus, the 49ers had some time to knock off the rust,
particularly Aiyuk, who held out during the preseason in a contract
dispute. You can use Purdy as a QB1.
Prior to Monday night, Mason had never logged more than 11 carries
in a game. He blew past that mark against the Jets, rushing 28
times for 147 yards and a touchdown. It was an impressive showing,
and him being listed in this spot has nothing to do with Mason
but rather the status of McCaffrey, who sat out the opener with
soreness in his calf and Achilles’. If CMC is back, what role,
if any, does Mason fill? For years we saw Elijah Mitchell flash
his talent when given the chance, but the Niners rarely used him
when McCaffrey was active. If McCaffrey is out, Mason is a legitimate
RB2 with top-10 potential. If CMC is back, Mason becomes a risky
flex candidate.
Fade: N/A
SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.12
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.28
Jones racked up 109 yards and a touchdown on just 16 touches last
Sunday, which echoed the production and workload from his best
days in Green Bay. They’re not playing the Giants again in Week
2. The 49ers held Breece Hall, who is one of the NFL’s best, to
54 yards on 16 carries (3.4 YPC). Hall did score and added 39
yards on five receptions, so there’s potential for Jones to deliver
decent value. It’s simply important to remember that the downside
is there as well. He’s an older back that has been prone to injury,
and San Francisco’s defense is as physical as they come. As more
than an RB3, Jones becomes a risky selection.
Back where his NFL career began with the Jets, Darnold was efficient
and effective in dissecting the Giants. He hit on 19 of 24 passes
for 208 yards, 2 TDs, and 1 INT. He’ll be hard pressed to
repeat that level of play. Not only are the 49ers a much better
defense than the G-Men, but they’re very familiar with Darnold,
who spent the 2023 season as Purdy’s backup. There should
be some weeks throughout the year when Darnold can be used in
a particularly tasty matchup. This is not one of them.
Jerome Ford is receiving bell cow treatment in Nick Chubb’s absence.
With Kareem Hunt no longer as the thorn in his side, it was all
Ford in Week 1. He handled 86 percent of the RB rushes, saw a
16-percent target share, and was the lone player to get goal line
work. It was an ugly outing for the Browns as a whole, but Ford
still managed 18.9 PPR points in the blowout. Ford should fare
just fine as an RB2 in a far easier matchup this week against
the Jags who allowed the 7th most fantasy points to running backs
in Week 1.
After making a move from Denver to Cleveland, Jeudy had a somewhat
promising debut in the brown and orange. His usage within the
offense actually rivaled that of Amari Cooper. He even had a more
productive fantasy day, outscoring Cooper by a hair under 8 PPR
points. Even though it was an encouraging Week 1, Jeudy will remain
the No.2 in this passing offense as long as Cooper is healthy.
How much is this role worth in an offense led by the ghost of
Deshaun Watson? Likely not much. Jeudy can be started in desperation
at the flex, but is likely best left on benches this week.
Fade: N/A
CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23
Brian Thomas Jr. quickly solidified himself as an NFL-caliber
receiver. His debut was highlighted by a touchdown on a beautiful
throw from Trevor Lawrence. But this wasn’t even Thomas’s best
play of the day. He torched Jalen Ramsey on a deep post and drew
a pass interference penalty. This rookie can compete with the
best of ‘em and looks like he could quickly become the alpha in
Jacksonville. Unlike most rookies, Thomas ran a near-full complement
of routes in his first career game. His 72-percent route participation
is incredibly encouraging for his outlook, as it seems likely
that the Jaguars envision him as a cornerstone of the offense.
Things are looking up for Thomas as the season wears on.
It was a wishy-washy Week 1 for Christian Kirk. He operated in
his typical slot-heavy role and got his fair share of looks, but
he scored just 4 PPR points. Better days are coming for Kirk.
Unfortunately, they are unlikely to come in Week 2.
Kirk is the Jaguar’s primary slot receiver and ran 70 percent
of his routes from the inside last week. In a matchup with the
Browns, Kirk will be drawing coverage from primarily Greg Newsome
II in the slot. Newsome is one of the better slot corners in the
league and was on full display last week when he held CeeDee Lamb
to just one catch for three yards when they were matched up. Don’t
be surprised if Kirk falls to a similar fate and is virtually
erased when the two tangle.
Walker played 65 percent of the Seahawks’ snaps in Week 1, showcasing
his role as the lead back despite some shared touches with Zach
Charbonnet. Walker's 103 rushing yards on 20 carries tied him
for the fifth-most carries of any running back in the opening
week, a promising sign for fantasy managers. However, Walker did
suffer an oblique injury late in the fourth quarter against the
Broncos, so his health will need to be monitored heading into
Sunday’s matchup. If Walker is active, he should again see a heavy
workload, especially in a potentially tough, grind-it-out game
against the Patriots. Keep an eye on injury updates, but if cleared,
Walker remains a strong fantasy start.
Metcalf is often seen as a high-ceiling fantasy player due to
his size and athleticism, but his week-to-week performances can
be inconsistent, especially when he faces top-tier defensive backs.
In Week 1, he struggled against Patrick Surtain, getting only
four targets and managing just three catches for 29 yards. While
one tough game isn't cause for panic, Metcalf faces another challenging
matchup in Week 2 against Christian Gonzalez of the Patriots,
a rising star at cornerback.
Given the potential for a low-scoring game and tough coverage,
fantasy managers should temper their expectations for Metcalf.
While he's not necessarily a must-bench, he's likely to face stiff
competition again, so this could be another underwhelming performance.
Lockett's Week 1 performance, with six catches for 77 yards on
seven targets, is promising, but there's reason for caution heading
into Week 2. Lockett played just over 50 percent of the Seahawks'
offensive snaps, compared to Metcalf's 88 percent and Jaxon Smith-Njigba's
80 percent. While Lockett's limited playing time could be attributed
to a bruised thigh, it's also possible the team is spreading opportunities
more evenly, especially with a lower-volume passing attack expected
from the Seahawks.
Lockett, known for his boom-or-bust potential, tends to deliver
more big performances than some expect. However, given that this
upcoming game isn't expected to be high-scoring, fantasy managers
should be cautious about starting him this week. He carries risk,
and this might not be the ideal matchup to rely on his upside.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (JSN) saw an uptick in playing time in Week
1 compared to 2023, but his fantasy production was limited. He
was targeted just twice, catching both passes for 19 yards, with
no touchdowns to bolster his output. His low average depth of
target (aDOT) is concerning and brings to mind players like Jarvis
Landry, who produced steady, low-ceiling fantasy numbers but never
reached elite status. For now, JSN should remain on fantasy benches,
especially in Seattle's low-volume passing offense.
Zach Charbonnet played on 35 percent of the Seahawks' offensive
snaps in Week 1 and may be carving out a role as their primary
passing-down back. However, Seattle remains a run-heavy offense,
which tends to favor Walker over Charbonnet. In a game expected
to have a low point total, Charbonnet is best left on fantasy
benches. If Walker is ruled out due to his oblique injury, though,
Charbonnet becomes an instant must-start, likely as a high-end
RB2 or low-end RB1.
SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.17
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25
Stevenson emerged as one of the top fantasy performers in Week
1, dominating the Patriots' backfield. He carried the ball 25
times and caught three passes in their unexpected win over the
Bengals. After a disappointing 2023 season, Stevenson seems poised
for a bounce-back year. If his usage continues at this level,
he has RB1 potential. However, it's important to temper expectations
slightly, as it's uncertain whether he'll consistently see this
volume throughout the season. For Week 2's matchup against the
Seahawks, consider Stevenson a high-end RB2 with RB1 upside if
the Patriots maintain their current game plan.
On the Fence: N/A
Fade: All Patriots pass-catchers
The Patriots' passing game was already expected to be limited,
but the snap and target distribution in Week 1 made it even more
complicated for fantasy managers. Four wide receivers—Demario
Douglas, K.J.
Osborn, Tyquan
Thornton, and Ja'Lynn
Polk—played at least 35 snaps, with none exceeding 40, while
Osborn was the only receiver to see more than three targets. No
receiver managed to accumulate more than 30 yards.
At tight end, Hunter
Henry led in snaps with 54, but Austin
Hooper played 36 snaps and actually outperformed Henry in
both targets (4 to 3) and yards (31 to 18). The lack of a clear
top target in this poor passing attack creates a messy situation
for fantasy, making it extremely difficult to find reliable production
from any New England pass-catchers.
Week 1 is simply the best. For a handful of days, Lazard is allowed
to be fantasy’s WR3. Following a 26.9-performance, it might
be tempting to squeeze him into your flex. But even the biggest
of box score watchers can see that this performance was propped
up by two touchdowns, including one in garbage time. If he has
a strong outing again, we can revisit this, but Lazard should
not be in consideration as a starter for the time being.
Moving on to the Jets’ other vertical, outside receiver, Mike
Williams can’t find his way into lineups just yet. Simply because
he isn’t playing enough snaps at this point in the year. Williams
is following the “Breece Hall Plan,” meaning his workload will
be steadily ramped up over the first month of the season. In Week
1, Williams ran a route on just 13 percent of Aaron Rodgers’ dropbacks.
Until this ramp-up period is over, Williams must remain on the
bench.
The clear focal points of this offense are Breece Hall and Garrett
Wilson. This makes it hard for any other players to maintain fantasy
relevance. But if someone like Lazard is earning targets over
Tyler Conklin, he is done for in fantasy. Conklin is a touchdown-dependent
tight end who has a ridiculously low floor. There are far better
options out there.
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17
All offseason, the Titans harped on how they had two starters
and would heavily utilize both Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears.
Well, it was almost all Tony Pollard in Week 1. He led the way
with 16 carries and four targets, compared to four and four for
Spears. It was also very nice to see Pollard have his burst back.
That was sorely missed in 2023.
The concern with Pollard is the matchup. The Jets’ defense
didn’t look great in Week 1, but this was against a different
caliber of offense. The Titans aren’t even playing the same
game as the 49ers on the offensive side of the ball. HC Robert
Saleh understands the deficiencies his run-defense displayed in
Week 1 and you can be sure it will be a point of emphasis this
week. This could very quickly be a game where the Titans’
offense is completely shut down.
There are a few rules in fantasy football. Here’s one of them:
If your non-superstar wide receiver is facing the Jets, you bench
him. The duo of Sauce Gardener and D.J. Reed is as frightening
as it gets. Even in a game where the Jets’ defense struggled as
a unit, Gardner and Reed were dominant. Reed allowed 29 receiving
yards while acting as the primary defender, and Gardner allowed
zero. It’s going to require a minor miracle for Ridley and/or
Hopkins to deliver a successful fantasy performance.
Nobody threw more touchdown passes in Week 1 than Mayfield, who
tossed four of them in Tampa Bay’s win over the Commanders.
While it’s tempting to devalue that performance to a degree
given Washington was the worst defense in football last year,
Mayfield’s strong play dates to last season, as he threw
16 TDs and 4 INTs over his final seven outings. His last game
of 2023 came in a playoff loss to Detroit where he compiled 349
yards, 3 TDs, and 2 INTs. The Lions had issues with a short-handed
Rams passing attack last Sunday night, giving Mayfield viable
QB1 potential here.
Despite getting nine carries to White’s 15, Irving more
than doubled the veteran’s output, racking up 62 yards on
the ground and adding another 14 via the air. It was a solid effort
from the rookie and a good sign for the Buccaneers, which struggled
to find a capable No. 2 back throughout last season. It’s
the kind of performance that will put Irving on the map for fantasy
owners, if he wasn’t already. Whether to plug him into your
lineup is debatable. The Lions are typically a stout run defense,
and the team might not trust him in a bigger spot like this. If
you’re short-handed, you can try Irving as a flex and hope
his early momentum continues.
Fade: N/A
TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
We identified Williams a week ago as a player that had some upside,
and he more than delivered, catching five passes for 121 yards
and a touchdown. He also ran for 13 yards, illustrating that the
Lions are serious about finding ways to get the ball in his hands.
Although Williams didn’t do a lot in January’s playoff
tilt (2-35-0), Detroit put up 287 yards through the air against
the Bucs. With St. Brown coming off an uncharacteristically poor
performance versus LA, there might be a focus to get him involved,
but don’t let that dissuade you from riding Williams in
Week 2 as your No. 3 wideout.
For all the talk about Gibbs taking over the lead role in the
backfield this season, it was Montgomery that led the way Sunday
night, carrying the ball 17 times for 91 yards and a touchdown
-- for comparison, Gibbs posted a 11-40-1 line. Despite that,
we’re not sold on that continuing this week. First, five
of those 17 carries came in overtime when the Rams were gassed.
Second, when these two teams clashed in the Divisional Round,
Gibbs was far more effective, turning 13 touches into 114 yards
and a score while Montgomery managed 47 yards on his 13 combined
opportunities. Plug Montgomery in as an RB3 or flex, but no more.
News that Kyren Williams was etched in as the Rams punt returner
seemed indicative that 2024 draft selection Blake Corum was set
to bite into Williams action at running back, but it did not play
out that way in Week 1. The Rams, already without Tyler Higbee
for the foreseeable future, and having suffered more injuries
to a banged up offensive line in Week 1, required experienced
and trusted pass blocker Williams to stay on the field. While
Corum will likely gain trust in this area, it’s likely to be down
the road where he bites into the incumbent’s workload.
There’s still the added risk of Williams exiting due to
an injury on a punt return, but against a Cardinals defense that
gave up the most points to fantasy running backs last year and
allowed 137 combined yards to Bills running backs in Week 1, Williams
looks like an easy RB1 in Week 2.
Stafford owners had to be happy at the prospects of him posting
regular 300-yard performances with both Cooper Kupp and Puca Nacua
on the field together, but those prospects quickly went up in
smoke – at least for now – when Nacua landed on the
IR this week. Stafford still has the ability to squeeze lemon
juice out of a rock, and so it’s by no means doom for those
counting on Stafford in certain matchups. Plus, he still has Kupp
(21 targets in Week 1). This is one of those matchups where, if
you’ve bought in on Stafford, you want to get him out there.
The Cardinals gave up the 4th most fantasy points per game to
QB’s last year (19.4), largely on the backs of both 32 passing
touchdowns and 7.6 yards per attempt surrendered to opponents.
Stafford should range into QB1 territory for this one.
Meanwhile, with Nacua’s exit, wideouts Demarcus Robinson and
Tyler Johnson experienced bigger roles, each finishing in the
Top 35 in targets at the position with 7 apiece. Johnson turned
out a beautiful catch-and-run, showcasing his speed and agility.
But beware that Johnson had just 2 total catches over the previous
two seasons and only 50 in a 4-year career.
While Johnson played 65% of snaps last week, Robinson played
92% of snaps, and Sean McVay is talking up a bigger role for slashing
receiver Tutu Atwell this week, which would more likely cut into
Johnson’s action. Robinson also saw increased volume late last
year, including two separate games of 10 targets, which may foreshadow
what is ahead while Nacua recovers. Robinson is likely the better
play here, and can be fairly brought into the flex conversation.
For those who missed out on Robinson and are scrambling at receiver
or flex, Johnson is more of a wild card play, with boom/bust potential.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Corum get some touches
this week, despite his no-show in Week 1, but barring a Kyren
Williams injury, it seems the Rams current circumstances will
likely require the rookie running back to get more experience
before making much of an impact on the field. He’s worth
holding, if you have room on your roster, but also worth keeping
on the bench, for now.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9
Murray’s Week 1 performance as a bit of Jekyll and Hyde.
In the first half, his decision making was on point and arguably
above what we’ve previously seen out of the veteran Cardinals
QB. But in the second half, hesitation and missed opportunities
reared their ugly head, and the Murray’s day fizzled out,
finishing at the QB14 for the week.
While Murray will likely never get to a consistent, quality place
as a decision maker, there are better days ahead. Especially since
it’s hard to fathom Marvin Harrison Jr. having another performance
where he walks away with 1 reception and doesn’t even break double
digit receiving yards. Additionally, Murray’s 5 rushes for 57
yards were an encouraging sign for the mobility he has left.
The Rams are not a serious threat to QB’s, having giving up 4565
combined yards and 30 total touchdowns to the position last year,
and losing their most impactful player on defense – interior pass
rusher Aaron Donald – to retirement during the off season. There’s
no reason to lose faith in Murray giving you QB1 production on
most days, including days like this.
Conner rushed for over 5 yards per carry for the first time in
his career last season, despite being 28 years old at the time
and playing for a Cardinals team that otherwise struggled. Conner
wasn’t as big a touchdown producer as he’s normally
been, but still put together 9 touchdowns last season and has
already reached the end zone to start the 2024 season.
Conner played 67% of snaps in Week 1, matching his average over
the last 2 seasons, and was also very involved in the passing
game (4 targets, 3-33-0). For the time being, there’s no
sign that Conner is either crumbling at age 29, nor about to lose
his footing as a RB2 with RB1 upside for the Cardinals offense.
He’s an easy start this week against a Rams defense that
looks like it’s really missing Aaron Donald already, getting
bowled over by the Lions after giving up the 2nd least points
to running backs last season.
Harrison is not on the fence primarily because of his lack of
production Week 1. While it was a very disappointing day, had
Kyler Murray spotted him beating the Bills defense down the field
late in the game and hit him on the run, most people would feel
relatively content with Harrison’s first career regular season
action. Numerous receivers we’re confident in, such as Chris Olave
and Drake London, also had disappoint fantasy performances, so
it’s okay to shrug off the disappointment. So, what’s the problem?
Perhaps, it’s “who is the problem?” And the answer is Tre’Davious
White.
The Rams are leaning heavily on the former Bills All Pro to keep
their secondary together, as they have lost significant talent
in the last couple of years, and gave up the 10th most receiving
yards and 10th most combined touchdowns to the wide receiver position
last season. If Week 1’s quiet day for Amon-ra St. Brown
against White is an indication, Harrison is not going to rebound
in Week 2. The big question is whether the Cardinals can do enough
to scheme Harrison into more favorable space as he adapts to the
NFL, as well as whether Harrison can utilize his otherworldly
talents and beat White on a big play, like Jameson Williams did
against the Rams last week. He’s still no worse than in
the flex conversation for the early weeks of his career, including
this week.
Dortch is coming off an 8-target, 6-reception performance in
Week 1, and may be a favored target of Kyler Murray in Week 2,
especially if Tre’Davious White is making life harder for
Marvin Harrison Jr. for much of the game. Dortch doesn’t
jump off the page, in the least, with athleticism, but his reliability
is not in doubt, with just 1 drop in 116 career targets. The Cardinals
have trusted him before, as he saw four different double-digit
target performances for Arizona while their receiving corps was
depleted in 2022, and in a similar situation in the middle of
last year, he gathered 17 combined targets between weeks 11 and
12. There is flex appeal with Dortch this week.
Dortch does not have the upside of Harrison so given the choice
between the two is more about whether you’re looking for
the safer floor that Dortch offers, or the big upside that Harrison
is likely going to gift to patient owners sooner or later.
It’s hard not to be discouraged about the immediate fantasy
prospects of Benson after he posted just 8 snaps in a game that
the Cardinals led for much of. For what it’s worth, Benson’s
8 snaps produced 3 rushes for 13 yards and a 5-yard catch, so
Arizona wanted him involved when he was in the huddle. Reasonably,
though, barring an injury to Conner, Benson is merely a bench
stash for now.
Harris continues to be fed by the Steelers offensive game plan,
despite relentless expectation for him to fade behind Jaylen Warren.
The truth is, Harris has traits that have been hidden by the limitations
of his blockers in front of him, but make him the best fit for
the job: durability, ball control and power between the tackles.
His 20 carries last week show that the Steelers continue to recognize
this. The Broncos defense, meanwhile, was run over last season,
and that makes this a very enticing match up for a volume running
back whose opponent is unlikely to force the Steelers to pass.
Coming off an 1140-yard receiving season where he led the league
in yards per reception (18.1), George Pickens was looking good
in the WR2 picture for 2024. His first game supported that assumption,
as he reeled in 6 catches for 85 yards on 7 targets. There isn’t
really another threat in the Steelers passing offense comparable
to Pickens, and he should be a regular fixture in the weekly Top
25 at his position despite the slow wheels on the Steelers offense.
There has been some waiver activity in Justin Fields favor after
the Steelers Week 1 victory over the Falcons. It’s understandable
to keep an eye on, and generally roster, any quarterback in fantasy
football who can see 14 rushes in a game. Take a cautious approach
with Fields, though, even if Russell Wilson (calf) continues to
miss time. Despite the victory, the Steelers did not score a touchdown
(a continued theme from the preseason). Fields faced only a 14%
pressure rate, according to pro-football-reference, which is far
less than the 36% pressure rate Geno Smith faced against the Broncos,
despite the fact that Geno got rid of the ball faster (2.1 seconds
in the pocket) than Fields (2.4 seconds). Fields unfortunate propensity
for sacks, fumbles and getting hurt make him a high risk QB2 with
a nearly bottomless pit of a floor.
Jaylen Warren saw his action cut to start the 2024 season. Long
time receiver turned running back Cordarrelle Patterson saw as
many touches (4) as Warren. The Steelers slashing back still saw
21 snaps compared to Patterson’s 9 on offense, but Week 1 suggests
that the coaching staff sees a role for Patterson, and it’s likely
coming at Warren’s expense. He’d be a fade if not for the juicy
matchup against the Broncos. He may not need a ton of touches
to get on the flex radar, but the risk is there.
Jefferson played 49 snaps on offense for the Steelers, but had
just 2 targets, converting them into a single 1-yard reception.
The Steelers offense doesn’t look like it has any juice
in the passing game outside of Pickens, and even if they move
the ball, it’s likely going to be on the ground. Jefferson
is a good blocking receiver, but doesn’t do much for your
fantasy team.
PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3
Running backs Javonte Williams and Jaleel McLaughlin largely
split the action in the Broncos opener against Seattle. Williams
will likely see the larger share over the course of the year,
but that difference may show out where the Broncos are favorites.
This is not one of those games, though it’s likely to be
a low-scoring grind between the two opponents, so Williams should
see more than the 8 carries he had last week, and McLaughlin likely
a few less than the 10 he secured.
McLaughlin could gain the edge via the receiving game, though
the 1-yard he gained on 5 receptions is a reminder that receiving
yards may be tougher to come by for a running back when the opposing
defense expects every pass to be near the line of scrimmage. It’s
not really a desirable situation to start either guy in a game
where touchdowns may be non-existent, so pass over them both if
possible
Sutton is a solid wide receiver. He’s an intermediate and
downfield route runner who averages 14.2 yards per catch. It’s
far from an ideal mix with Nix, who primarily likes to work underneath,
and hasn’t shown a skill set to suggest he’ll transform
to a different type of passer. According to the Denver Post, 21%
of Nix’s passes were behind the line of scrimmage in Week
1. He still targeted Sutton 12 times, which is extremely encouraging,
but only four went for receptions (only totaling 38 yards) and
two went for picks, meaning the lack of effectiveness in the connection
could be crippling for Sutton’s value. You can’t quit
on a receiver who gets 12 targets, but expectations should be
tempered.
With Nix’s struggles already covered, the two most notable
things left to be said are that he needed 2.4 seconds of pocket
time in his debut despite largely throwing designed screens and
quick routes. Second, the Steelers defense lead by one of the
most successful and experienced head coaches (Mike Tomlin) is
coming to town. Nix realistically isn’t even on the superflex
radar.
Upon his return from a “hold-in” that momentarily
turned into a full hold out, Ja’Marr Chase played a few
less snaps than normal (84% vs 88% for his career), on his way
to a 6-reception performance (62 yards) in Week 1. Despite Chase
missing the preseason and the struggles the Bengals experienced
as a team last week, there was nothing of concern in his performance.
Chase did battle with elite-looking young cornerback Christian
Gonzalez, who previously showed out extremely well in an injury-shortened
rookie season for the Patriots.
With Tee Higgins status for Week 2 in doubt, Chase will once
again be an even larger focal point – of both the offense and
the Chiefs defense – than he already normally is. The Chiefs will
surely try to take him away, but expect Burrow’s sure-fire go-to
option to get peppered with looks in this one. He’s a high end
WR1, as usual.
Burrow’s 2024 season debut looked an awful lot like his
forgettable 2023 season. How much this had to do with lingering
effects from injury versus the fact that Burrow has yet to be
productive during his career when having any less than at least
2 high-quality receivers healthy is a fair question. It’s
plausible that both issues are coming together, which could be
a bad omen for Burrow owners. It’s too early to panic, but
against a solid Chiefs defense, it’s hard to see Burrow
as more than a high-end QB2, if Higgins misses another game.
Zack Moss was the Bengals primary running back in Week 1 versus
the Patriots, and yet only saw 9 rushes and caught 2 receptions.
A rushing touchdown was enough to get Moss a No.21 finish at the
position, but with the Bengals offense hardly a well-oiled machine
right now, that’s going to be hard to repeat. Moss will
likely need more action, which may be hard to come by against
the Chiefs if the Bengals find themselves in a hole early. He’s
in the flex conversation as a NFL starting running back, but he
has a low floor this week.
Brown played one-third of the snaps in Week 1, with Moss seeing
the bulk of the action at the position. Both he and Moss saw about
1 touch per every 3 snaps - not a particularly desirable rate
for the running back position. It’s only one game, and while
it was a close game, the Bengals were trailing or much of it,
so there should be better touch rates for the Bengals backfield
going forward. However, this may be an offense that focuses less
on involving their running backs than most teams, meaning Brown
will need a much larger share of snaps to be relevant.
Higgins is unlikely to play in Week 2, but even if he takes the
field, it’s reasonably wise to keep him on your bench, as
he’d likely only step out on the field as a decoy, and at
great risk of his hamstring flaring up again.
CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.11
Rashee Rice’s role grew in the Chiefs offense over the course
of the 2023 season. Week 1 of 2024 felt, nonetheless, like Rice’s
breakout party as a potential Top 12 finisher in fantasy football.
Obviously, Marquise Brown’s return, at some point, could put a
damper on Rice’s upside, but right now, it’s hard not to envision
Rice being the focal point of the offense, and TE Travis Kelce
being a sidekick. The Bengals don’t present a formidable foe,
and certainly can’t match up with the Chiefs as well as the Ravens
can, so there’s not a lot of reason to expect that they’ll hold
down Rice, this week.
Kelce, meanwhile, was outperformed – at least statistically –
by the Chiefs second tight end, Noah Gray, in Week 1. Gray picked
up 3 receptions for 37 yards, while Kelce had 3 for 34 and a drop.
It’s just one week, and it shouldn’t be the norm, but Kelce is
nearer to his career’s sunset and Gray’s time to surpass him is
probably closer than most Kelce owners would like to think. For
the time being, while age and celebrity may be slowing Kelce down,
he’s still a premiere route runner and a red zone threat. There’s
no reason to take him out of the TE1 conversation, even if doubts
of further elite production are growing.
Isiah Pacheco predictably saw the vast majority of snaps against
the Ravens last week (80%), as new addition Samaje Perine was
just getting adjusted to his new team. Perine should see a notable
uptick in snaps as he gets acclimated, as Perine saw 41% and 37%
snap rates with the Bengals and Broncos over the previous two
seasons. After a 15% snap rate last week, it may take a few weeks
to find out what the long-term split is between these two. For
the time being, Pacheco is a high end RB2 against a Bengals team
that was middle of the pack (No.17) against fantasy RB’s last
year, and gave up 120 rushing yards and a score to Rhamandre Stevenson
last week.
Worthy’s debut was a smash success, picking up a score
both on the ground and through the air. There’s no question
that Worthy isn’t with the right team to maximize his potential.
But Worthy should still be expected to have his share of quiet
weeks, especially early in his career.
His big opener came on the back of just 3 targets and 1 rush,
while his 63% snap rate was just ahead of Justin Watson (52%).
Second tight end Noah Gray also saw a similar snap rate (54%),
so there’s probably going to be a bit of a rotation between Worthy
and these veteran Chiefs in the battle for snaps in the weeks
ahead. Worthy is definitely a threat to hit big, but you could
also walk away with little to nothing on any given week, including
this one against the Bengals. Think of him as a huge upside WR4
right now, with more consistency possibly coming in the latter
part of the season.
Brown hasn’t practiced in almost 2 months, and it sounds
like he is headed towards missing another game, but even if he
makes the field, there’s no need to rush him back into significant
snaps or action. He’s a safe to look past, right now.
Swift played a rather confusing role for the Bears in Week 1.
He is primarily known as a pass catcher, but functioned as the
Bears’ primary ball carrier and was often subbed out in favor
of Travis Homer on third downs. As a result, Swift saw just 1
target.
If Swift isn’t going to be on the field for third downs and see
limited work as a pass catcher, it’s hard to see him being a strong
fantasy asset. We don’t want to overreact to Week 1 but as it
stands now, he relies heavily on the offensive success of the
team as a whole to provide him with goal line opportunities. These
may be few and far between in Week 2 as the offense tries to find
its identity with Caleb Williams under center.
Update: Keenan
Allen (heel) and Rome Odunze (knee ) are listed as Questionable.
Both are gametime decisions.
The Bears’ WR2 and WR3 are both in serious jeopardy of
missing Week 2. Neither Allen nor Odunze have practiced this week
as of Thursday. Given the reports surrounding Odunze’s injury,
it seems that he has the most uphill battle of the two. Plan to
be without the rookie this week.
Allen is also in danger of missing this game after two consecutive
DNPs. But if he is able to suit up, he can slide into lineups
as a flex option. Allen was targeted on 35 percent of his routes
and accounted for 43 percent of the air yards delivered by Caleb
Williams last week. This is strong usage and a negative game script
against the Texans is the likely scenario.
CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4
Dell and Diggs will likely be in the WR3/Flex category for the
majority of the season. Last week, we got a very clear idea of
how the Texans plan to deploy each receiver.
Diggs seems to be the underneath receiver who will operate in
the shallow third. He saw a 1.5-yard aDOT on six targets. These
kinds of targets should allow Diggs to maintain a high catch rate
and a fairly high floor. He will compile his way to solid weeks
in PPR leagues and will be elevated in games where he finds the
endzone, as he did in Week 1.
Dell, on the other hand, plays a very different role for the
offense. He saw eight targets in Week 1 with an aDOT of 16.3,
accounting for 46 percent of the Texans’ air yards. He retained
his place in the offense as the Texans’ explosive playmaker.
This sort of role will create some volatility in his fantasy production,
but Dell remains a strong option in an offense with a quarterback
who will compete for the league lead in passing yards.
It’s becoming increasingly unlikely that Dalton Schultz
plays after missing two consecutive practices. Even if he is able
to play, Schultz is a difficult TE to feel comfortable starting.
He is the fifth option in this offense and will almost entirely
rely on finding the endzone to accumulate fantasy points.
Pitts entered the season with high expectations, but his Week
1 performance was underwhelming despite some encouraging usage
stats. He ran a route on every passing play, which is a positive
indicator of his role in the offense. However, this usage did
not translate into significant production, as he was targeted
only three times and caught just three passes. Fortunately, Pitts
did manage to find the end zone, which salvaged his fantasy day
to some extent.
Fantasy managers should be hopeful for an increase in targets
moving forward. While the minimal usage in Week 1 is concerning,
Pitts has the talent to capitalize on his opportunities when given
more chances. If he continues to be a focal point in the passing
game, he could provide substantial value, especially if the Falcons'
offense improves. For now, he's worth starting, but expectations
should be tempered until we see more consistent involvement.
London’s performance in Week 1 was disappointing, especially
considering the high expectations many fantasy managers had for
him. With only three targets and two catches for 15 yards, London
didn’t deliver the results hoped for, particularly in a
matchup where he was expected to shine.
However, it's worth noting that London had a similar slow start
in Week 1 of the 2023 season before rebounding significantly.
In Week 2 of that year, he posted a solid performance with six
catches for 67 yards and a touchdown. Despite the Falcons’
offensive changes this season, London’s full participation
in every offensive snap suggests he remains a key part of the
game plan.
The matchup against the Eagles, who struggled against the Packers'
passing attack in Week 1, could provide an opportunity for London
to bounce back. If he fails to produce in this favorable matchup,
it might be time to reevaluate his status, but for now, he remains
a worthwhile start given the lack of better options for many fantasy
managers.
Cousins’ performance in Week 1 raised valid concerns, particularly
regarding his mobility and accuracy. The recovery from Achilles
surgery may have impacted his play, leading to a less-than-ideal
start for the Falcons' offense. While Cousins was a borderline
starter before the season, this performance makes it prudent to
temper expectations.
The matchup against the Eagles could be favorable on paper, but
it's wise to wait and see if Cousins can regain his form and adapt
to his current limitations. For now, consider him a mid-to-low-level
QB2 rather than a reliable QB1. If he shows improvement in this
game, it could be worth reassessing his value moving forward.
ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10
Update: A.J.
Brown (hamstring) is listed as Questionable.
The Eagles got off to a hot start in Week 1 with A.J. Brown and
Saquon Barkley stealing the show. However, things weren’t
so bad for DeVonta Smith who failed to score a touchdown but still
managed to secure a team-high seven receptions for 84 yards on
the eight targets that came his way. This was a shootout against
the Packers, so Hurts did throw 34 times which isn’t exactly
typical for him, but it’s great to see that he’s still
seeing a strong 23.5 percent target share in what looks like it’ll
be a borderline elite Philadelphia offense.
The Falcons aren’t an easy defense to exploit, but as long
as Smith is healthy, he’s going to continue to be a viable
fantasy WR2 most weeks.
Goedert has been a borderline TE1 for most of his career, but
this draft season he fell out of the good graces of many fantasy
managers and began to slip into being a TE2 or even going undrafted
in many leagues. With the disappointing results that so many of
the top tight ends produced in Week 1, Goedert may be back in
the conversation for being a starter as early as this week’s
contest against the Falcons.
He only caught four passes for 31 yards on five catches in Week
1, but Goedert has a tasty matchup against a Falcons defense that
was pretty terrible at defending opposing tight ends in 2023.
They gave up the sixth-most fantasy points to the position on
the season, including big games to Sam LaPorta, Dalton Schultz,
T.J. Hockenson, and Trey McBride. The biggest issue with Goedert
is that we’ve seen him struggle to secure a high target
share in the past, specifically when DeVonta Smith is healthy.
Nevertheless, for tight end-needy teams, Goedert is a borderline
TE1 option this week.
