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Favorites & Fades


Week 14

By: Nick Caron | HC Green | John Fessel | Michael O'Hara
Updated: 12/8/24

Thursday:

GB @ DET


Sunday Early:

ATL @ MIN | NO @ NYG | JAX @ TEN | LV @ TB

CLE @ PIT | CAR @ PHI | NYJ @ MIA


Sunday Late:

BUF @ LAR | CHI @ SF | SEA @ ARI

LAC @ KC


Monday:

CIN @ DAL

Notes:
- Green highlight indicates plus matchup (top eight)
- Red highlight indicates negative matchup (bottom eight)
- Lines and totals updated Sunday morning

Packers @ Lions - (Green)
Line: DET -3.5
Total: 53.5

DET FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.27
DET FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.31
DET FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.4
DET FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.32

No Brainers: RB Josh Jacobs, WR Jayden Reed

Favorites: TE Tucker Kraft

While the narrative since training camp began is that the Packers are loaded with young, interchangeable talent, three players have quietly emerged as the stars in Titletown. Jacobs, Reed, and Kraft -- though you could argue Jacobs had already established himself in Las Vegas, he’s grown into a primary role with the Packers. All three are physical and versatile, and they’re the players opposing teams need to account for on each play. That doesn’t mean guys like Romeo Doubs (concussion) and Christian Watson won’t have big days, but they don’t feel like pillars of the offense in the same way. Kraft led the team in receiving on Thanksgiving night, hauling in six passes for 78 yards. He’s also tied for 10th in the NFL with six TDs. Although Kraft was quiet (4-34-0) in the previous meeting with Detroit, this feels like a game where the Packers want to set a physical tone, and Kraft is essential to that. He carries TE1 potential.

On the Fence: WR Christian Watson

The last time the Packers went to Detroit, Jordan Love hit Watson for a 53-yard gain on the game’s first play, and he finished with a 5-94-1 line. When the two clubs locked up in early November, Watson was targeted a team-high seven times. It only resulted in three receptions for 37 yards, but Love had Watson for a long touchdown only to have the wideout misjudge the ball on a rainy day and have it fall incomplete. Clearly, the Packers like Watson’s matchup against the Lions secondary, which has been hit by injuries and looked vulnerable in Chicago’s second-half comeback when the Bears threw three touchdown passes. You never know how Love will distribute the ball, so Watson remains a risk, but there’s a lot to like about his upside Thursday night.

Fade: N/A

GB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.20
GB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.16
GB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.25
GB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.8

No Brainers: RB Jahmyr Gibbs, RB David Montgomery, WR Amon-Ra St. Brown

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Jameson Williams

After topping 75 yards four times in his first five games this season, Williams has surpassed that number just once. That came against Jacksonville back on Nov. 17 when the offense went crazy, which included a 4-124-1 effort from the Alabama product. Most recently, Williams logged 46 combined yards versus the Bears on Thanksgiving in a game that featured an impressive hurdle but little else of note. A healthy dose of the running game seems likely for their Week 14 matchup with the Packers, but Williams is unique in that he only needs one big play to deliver a solid fantasy performance, and such a play could come in the passing game or on a reverse. While his downside feels steeper than many weeks, Williams does carry WR3 potential if you’re in need.

Fade: QB Jared Goff

Apart from his monster game against the Jaguars in Week 11 (412 yards, 4 TDs), Goff has posted middling numbers over the last five weeks, averaging 219 yards, 1.25 TDs, and 1.25 INTs in those other four outings. That includes the Nov. 3 meeting with Packers in which he threw for 145 yards and 1 TD in a game Detroit controlled with their running game. Given the injury riddled state of the Lions defense, that sounds like a highly plausible game plan this Thursday to keep the ball away from a Packers offense that has scored 68 points without a turnover in their last two games. Goff hasn’t had many big games against the Packers during his time in Detroit, so this is a good week to keep him on your bench.

Prediction: Packers 27, Lions 24 ^ Top

Falcons @ Vikings - (Green)
Line: MIN -6.0
Total: 45.5

MIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.13
MIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.30
MIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.1
MIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.21

No Brainers: RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London

Favorites: WR Darnell Mooney

In his last two games, Mooney has totaled five receptions for 47 yards. While those aren’t fantasy relevant numbers, his three previous games saw him catch 14 passes for 270 yards and 2 TDs. He was well into WR3 territory and pushing toward WR2 before a hamstring injury knocked him out of Week 11. Following the bye, he was back this past Sunday but couldn’t get much going -- in fairness, only London and Ray-Ray McCloud did any damage, and most of McCloud’s work came on a 60-yard catch-and-run. All of which is to say you shouldn’t be too down on Mooney. He’s enjoyed a tremendous bounce-back season and is one of Kirk Cousins’ favorite targets. Mooney should also have more familiarity with what Minnesota wants to do defensively having played them twice a year during his four seasons with the Bears. Facing a secondary that ranks in the bottom five in passing yards allowed, Mooney has a good chance to return to WR3 status.

On the Fence: TE Kyle Pitts

Although far from the only inconsistent performer in the NFL, Pitts is among the most frustrating given his size (6-foot-6, 246 pounds) and talent. After topping 1,000 yards as a rookie, the former No. 4 overall pick averaged just 38 yards per game over his second and third seasons. The signing of Cousins was supposed to get him back on track. There have been moments, most notably a four-game stretch in Weeks 5-8 where he caught 21 passes for 314 yards and 2 TDs, but it hasn’t been sustained. Over his last four outings, Pitts has a combined 6-75-0 line. That’s miserable production. This feels like a possible breakout game, however, given Minnesota’s tendency to allow yardage through the air and their ability to generate pressure, forcing quicker throws. We just saw Trey McBride log a dozen catches for 96 yards versus the Vikings. The week before, Cole Kmet put up a 7-64-0. Pitts has TE1 upside, but the risks are obvious.

Fade: QB Kirk Cousins

Returning to the place where he had the best days of his career, Cousins has endured a tough first season in Atlanta. If you throw out his monster outings against Tampa Bay and Dallas, the veteran has averaged 170 yards per game in his nine other starts with 6 TDs and 12 INTs. He’s coming off a zero-touchdown, four-interception game versus the Chargers that included a pick six. He hasn’t thrown a TD pass since Nov. 3. While it’s a fun narrative to envision Cousins starring in his return, it doesn’t feel grounded in reality based on how he’s played most of 2024. He’d be an incredibly risky choice for your starting lineup.

ATL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.9
ATL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
ATL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.8
ATL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.17

No Brainers: RB Aaron Jones, WR Justin Jefferson, TE T.J. Hockenson

Favorites: QB Sam Darnold

While Cousins’ arrow is pointed down, Darnold’s is firmly pointed up. There were some dicey moments along the way -- completing 45 percent of his passes versus the Jets, five interceptions in a two-game span, one of which was against Jacksonville -- but he looks to have steadied the ship, throwing for two TDs in three consecutive games. He even led a comeback win over the Cardinals last Sunday. While the Falcons played well against Justin Herbert last Sunday, they’ve struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks this year, ranking dead last even after sacking Herbert five times. If you give Darnold time with weapons like Jefferson, Hockenson, and Jordan Addison, you’re asking to get picked apart. There’s a lot to like about Darnold in Week 14.

On the Fence: WR Jordan Addison

Addison has been hit or miss this season. He’s had two legitimate big games, going off on the Bears for an 8-162-1 in Week 12, and posting 79 yards and two scores against the Packers back in Week 4. In his other eight games, the USC product is averaging 43 yards with two total TDs. The Falcons rank 22nd in pass defense (221.7 yards/game) this year and are one of 12 teams to have given up 20 or more passing touchdowns. The matchup for Addison to deliver playable value is there. He’s just another one of those players that doesn’t always get the opportunities. With a half-dozen teams on bye, Addison could be worth the risk as a WR3.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Vikings 27, Falcons 23 ^ Top

Saints @ Giants - (Caron)
Line: NO -5.0
Total: 40.5

NYG FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.15
NYG FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.8
NYG FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.21
NYG FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.31

No Brainers: RB Alvin Kamara

Favorites: TE Juwan Johnson

The Saints’ passing game has taken another hit with Taysom Hill being ruled out for the season, adding to the team’s already significant list of injuries. This development could open the door for tight end Juwan Johnson to take on a larger role in the offense moving forward. Johnson has shown flashes of productivity in the past and could be a key outlet in a depleted receiving corps.

However, it’s worth noting that Foster Moreau is also likely to see some involvement at the tight end position. Moreau has been utilized sparingly this season but could step up to split opportunities with Johnson depending on game script and matchups. With the Saints searching for consistent playmakers, Johnson has a chance to emerge, but the situation remains fluid with Moreau potentially factoring into the mix.

On the Fence: QB Derek Carr

Derek Carr has been a steady presence for the Saints since returning from injury, showcasing consistency with six touchdowns and zero interceptions over his past four games. While his numbers haven't been explosive, they’ve been efficient enough to provide stability under center.

This week, Carr faces a Giants defense that has yet to allow a 300-yard passer or a quarterback to throw more than two touchdowns in a game this season. The Giants present a middling challenge overall, offering neither a glaringly advantageous nor overly difficult matchup.

Carr’s profile fits that of a solid but unspectacular option—one who can deliver an acceptable performance without offering much upside. He’s a serviceable choice for deeper leagues, particularly two-QB or Superflex formats, but expectations should remain tempered given the Giants’ under-the-radar ability to limit opposing quarterbacks’ production.

Fade: WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling

Marquez Valdes-Scantling has stepped into the role of New Orleans’ de facto WR1 following injuries to Chris Olave, Rashid Shaheed, and Bub Means. While this might seem like an opportunity for him to shine, his career track record and recent production suggest that expectations should be tempered.

Over the past three games, Valdes-Scantling has showcased his trademark big-play ability, amassing an eye-popping 33 yards per reception and scoring four touchdowns. However, his overall involvement in the offense has been minimal, with just seven catches across those contests. Despite his impressive efficiency, he has yet to surpass four targets in any game this season, making him heavily reliant on touchdowns to produce meaningful output.

While Valdes-Scantling’s recent performances may catch the eye, his lack of target volume underscores the risk of depending on him for consistent production. Relying on such extreme efficiency is a volatile strategy, especially against defenses that can contain deep threats or limit scoring opportunities.

NO FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.21
NO FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.7
NO FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.7
NO FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.22

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Malik Nabers (groin, hip)

Malik Nabers continues to be a model of consistency, boasting one of the highest target floors in the league. The rookie has seen at least seven targets in every game this season, with double-digit targets in seven of his 10 contests. In Week 13 against the Cowboys, Nabers was targeted 13 times, hauling in eight receptions for 69 yards. While he hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3, his steady production has kept him in the WR2 range on a weekly basis, positioning him to potentially finish as an overall WR1 for the season—a remarkable feat for a rookie.

Heading into Week 14, the Giants will have Drew Lock under center again as they face the Ravens. Lock attempted 32 passes in his first start of the season against the Cowboys and displayed some mobility, helping the Giants’ offense show signs of life for just the second time in their last seven games. This increased functionality should give Nabers additional opportunities to break his seven-game touchdown drought and continue delivering strong performances in what has been an impressive debut campaign.

On the Fence: RB Tyrone Tracy Jr.

Tracy's role in the Giants' backfield seems to have stabilized, as he reclaimed the majority of the offensive snaps in Week 13, playing 73 percent compared to Devin Singletary's 21 percent. This marked a notable shift back to prioritizing the younger back after concerns arose about a potential split in Week 12. However, Tracy's increased snap share did not translate into additional touches; he recorded nine carries for the second consecutive week and caught two fewer passes compared to the prior game. Still, he salvaged his day by finding the end zone on the ground, bringing his total to four touchdowns over the past seven games.

Tracy's production remains highly game-script-dependent. When the Giants fall behind, his rushing opportunities tend to dry up, and with minimal involvement in the passing game, his fantasy relevance hinges on his ability to score touchdowns. That said, Week 14 presents a favorable matchup against a Saints defense that has been vulnerable to opposing running backs, allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to the position. The Saints have also given up 100 or more rushing yards to individual backs in two of their past three contests, offering Tracy a good opportunity to deliver another solid performance.

Fade: WR Wan’Dale Robinson

Wan’Dale Robinson had a promising start to the season, particularly for PPR formats, but his production has taken a sharp downturn in recent weeks. Early in the year, Robinson was a focal point in the Giants' offense, seeing eight or more targets in six of the team’s first seven games. However, over his past five outings, Robinson has reached that mark only once.

In Week 13, Robinson hit a new low, being targeted just twice and managing a mere six receiving yards despite catching both passes. This drop in involvement coincided with Drew Lock’s first start of the season, and Lock is expected to remain under center in Week 14.

Robinson's shallow average target depth has always limited his upside, and with diminished volume, his potential impact is further reduced. Without the heavy target share he enjoyed earlier in the season, Robinson’s role in the offense appears to be too small to deliver meaningful contributions.

Prediction: Saints 21, Giants 17 ^ Top

Jaguars @ Titans - (O'Hara)
Line: TEN -3.0
Total: 40.5

TEN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
TEN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.20
TEN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.28
TEN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.24

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Brian Thomas Jr., TE Evan Engram

Despite missing Trevor Lawrence for the majority of last week’s game, Brian Thomas Jr. had arguably one of the most impressive performances of his career. He was constantly creating separation and drawing targets; if it were not for a few miscues, Thomas could have cleared 150 yards on the day with ease. As expected, Thomas saw an uptick in his role with both Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis out for the year. He saw a career-high 10 targets last week which amounted to a 23.8-percent target share. Thomas should continue to draw targets at a high rate for the rest of the year. This volume, coupled with his downfield abilities, makes him a strong start even with Mac Jones under center.

Given the quality of the Jaguars’ offense and the shallow nature of Evan Engram’s targets (5.9-yard aDOT), he’ll have a hard time breaking into the top five tight ends each week. However, his ability to draw a large number of targets keeps him in the TE1 conversation. Engram is averaging 8.5 targets per game over the last month, maxing out at 10 targets in a single game over this span. While it’s just a steady dose of check-downs, any tight end who is going to see 8-10 targets per game belongs in starting lineups. Engram should be viewed as a mid to low-end TE1 this week.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: WR Parker Washington, RB Tank Bigsby, RB Travis Etienne

Parker Washington had his moment last week, drawing 12 targets on his way to 24.3 fantasy points. This was impressive, but this is a “we need to see it again before we believe it” type of situation. Prior to this game, Washington had seen 0.11 targets per route run and had never been much of a factor in the Jacksonville offense. He’s the clear WR2 now, but it’s hard to see him earning more targets than Thomas and Engram.

As expected, the return of Tank Bigsby turned this backfield into a mess once again. Travis Etienne played 52 percent of the snaps and saw 18 opportunities, compared to 46 percent and eight for Bigsby. With a committee approach in place, both backs struggled to produce in fantasy, with neither scoring more than 8.8 PPR points. Unless Mac Jones magically elevates this offense and is regularly leading scoring drives, both of these backs will be incredibly unreliable in fantasy.

JAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.2
JAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.2
JAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
JAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Calvin Ridley, RB Tony Pollard

Calvin Ridley has been among the most volatile fantasy producers this season. He has three finishes this year as the WR6 or better, but has finished outside the top 50 receivers in five weeks. Ridley’s weekly fantasy production is almost entirely driven by his ability to connect with Will Levis (or Mason Rudolph) on a deep target. Ridley does not have a single game this season with more than 10 fantasy points in which he did not catch a deep target (targets with 20-plus air yards).

In a matchup with the Jaguars, Ridley is in a great spot to haul in a bomb and have a productive day overall. The Jaguars rank dead last in yards per pass play allowed and have surrendered the third-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season. Specifically looking at their ability to contain receivers on vertical routes, Jacksonville has allowed the most receptions and yards on targets 20-plus yards downfield this season. Everything is setting up for a patented Ridley spike week.

In games that Tyjae Spears has played this season, Tony Pollard’s upside has been capped by Spears playing 40-50 percent of the snaps. Well, it appears that Brian Callahan has changed course and will be looking to Pollard to run the show. Pollard played 72 percent of snaps last week, his highest mark in a game with Spears active.

If these splits carry over into Week 14, Pollard could be in for a massive game against the Jaguars. Jacksonville has one of the league’s worst run defenses, ranking bottom 10 in rushing yards allowed per play, EPA per rush, and fantasy points allowed to RBs. A 70 percent snap share in this one could allow Pollard to finish as an RB1 for the fourth time this season.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: WR Nick Westbrook-Ikhine

Anyone can look at Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s stats this season and tell you what he’s doing is unsustainable. We’re talking about a player who is averaging a touchdown on every 2.5 receptions. As of now, he’s the second player in NFL history to have at least 8 touchdowns on 40 or fewer targets. Sure, it’s encouraging to see his target totals steadily tick up, but everything about his production screams flukey.

Prediction: Titans 20, Jaguars 17 ^ Top

Raiders @ Buccaneers - (O'Hara)
Line: TB -6.5
Total: 46.5

TB FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.1
TB FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
TB FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.9
TB FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.6

No Brainers: TE Brock Bowers

Favorites: WR Jakobi Meyers (ankle)

After flying under the radar for most of the season, Jakobi Meyers has finally drawn some attention after scoring 37.8 PPR points over the last two weeks. The fact of the matter is, Meyers has been a quality Flex option ever since Davante Adams went down with his phantom hamstring injury. In seven games without Adams, Meyers is averaging 15.1 FPts/G which would come in as the WR17 this season.

Meyers’ fantasy value is driven by the highly concentrated nature of the Las Vegas offense. Meyers and Brock Bowers have combined for at least 40 percent of the targets in four straight games and both are a threat to draw 25-30 percent of the targets in any week. Meyers has actually cleared a 24-percent target share in five of seven games without Adams this season. Meyers’ projectable volume, coupled with a top-10 matchup against the Buccaneers make him an easy choice in lineups this week.

Update: Alexander Mattison is not expected to play.

On the Fence: RB Alexander Mattison (ankle), RB Ameer Abdullah

The Raiders’ running back room has been a complete mess of late. Alexander Mattison and Zamir White have missed two consecutive weeks which has lifted Ameer Abdullah and Sincere McCormick into more prominent roles. Mattison returned to practice in a limited capacity to open the week, indicating he could be back in action this week. If Mattison does return to the field, he’ll likely assume the 1A role that provides some intrigue in a week with an ultra-thin crop of running backs. Even still, there are likely better options out there.

If Mattison is unable to play, Abdullah will likely function as the lead back for the Raiders. He wouldn’t be the favorite to lead the team in carries, but he would likely play the most snaps in what should be a trailing game script against the Buccaneers. Abdullah has made a career as a receiving back and the Raiders have made the most of his receiving talent in recent weeks. He drew six targets two weeks ago and he could do something similar if Las Vegas is playing catch-up. This receiving work could buoy his production in PPR leagues, but once again, there are likely better options out there.

Fade: RB Sincere McCormick

If Mattison plays, Sincere McCormick should not be considered in leagues with 8-14 teams. Even if Mattison sits out, fantasy managers shouldn’t be planning to rely on McCormick this week. He is purely a ball carrier and won’t be playing on passing downs. He doesn’t have a monopoly on the rushing work either as Abdullah will undoubtedly be siphoning some carries. Fantasy managers are looking at a player who will see in the range of 10 carries on a largely unproductive offense. That’s not the type of player you want in lineups.

LV FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
LV FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.18
LV FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
LV FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.3

No Brainers: RB Bucky Irving (back), WR Mike Evans (hamstring)

Favorites: QB Baker Mayfield, TE Cade Otton

Baker Mayfield has been one of fantasy’s pleasant surprises this year, coming in as the per-game QB5 after going undrafted in a large number of single-quarterback leagues. Mayfield is averaging an impressive 7.5 yards per attempt and is well on his way to setting a career-high in passing touchdowns. Mayfield had a relatively slow day against the Panthers last week, but he’s in a great spot to bounce back. The Raiders’ defense ranks 8th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks and 2nd in EPA per dropback. Altogether, they allow 27.8 points per game, the fifth-most in the NFL. The Buccaneers shouldn’t have any trouble scoring this week and plenty of that production should come via Mayfield.

Cade Otton’s production has slowed down in recent weeks, but he’s still proven capable of drawing the volume required to sustain TE1 production. Otton accounted for 20.6 percent of the targets last week, amounting to seven targets in total. Even with Mike Evans back in the picture, this sort of volume is sustainable for Otton. With guys like Hunter Henry, Mark Andrews, and Zach Ertz on bye, a tight end who’s a candidate to command 20-25 percent of the targets is a quality TE1 option.

On the Fence: RB Rachaad White

Bucky Irving has ascended into the 1A role in this backfield, but Rachaad White isn’t going away just yet. Last week, he played 52 percent of the snaps, saw 11 carries, held a 36-percent route participation, and got some reps at the goal line. Even with Irving becoming the primary ball carrier, White still having access to the high-value touches (targets and goal line work) can make him a viable fantasy option.

White could also ascend into the No Brainer tier this week. Irving is dealing with a back injury and has not yet practiced ahead of Sunday’s game. If Irving doesn’t play, White belongs in lineups everywhere against the Raiders. He would likely cede some work to Sean Tucker, but White would hold an incredibly valuable role.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Raiders 20 ^ Top

Browns @ Steelers - (Green)
Line: PIT -6.5
Total: 43.5

PIT FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.30
PIT FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.21
PIT FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.24
PIT FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20

No Brainers: WR Jerry Jeudy, TE David Njoku

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: QB Jameis Winston

If ever there was a game that encapsulated the highs and lows of what having Winston at quarterback means for a team it was Monday night in Denver. The former No. 1 overall pick was equal parts brilliant and infuriating, passing for a career-high 497 yards and 4 TDs while also throwing three interceptions, two of which were returned from touchdowns. Jameis giveth, and Jameis taketh away. Now, fantasy owners would take that trade off every week as Winston was among the highest scoring performers for Week 13. Don’t expect a repeat this Sunday. Despite the Steelers having issues with Joe Burrow last week, Winston isn’t Burrow, and when they locked up two weeks the veteran threw for 219 yards, 0 TDs, and 1 INT (he did run for a score). The Browns won that game, and you can bet Pittsburgh, which suddenly has some daylight in the AFC North, will want payback. Still, we know Winston can put up big-time numbers, so you can absolutely start him if you’re comfortable with the downside.

Fade: RB Nick Chubb

Two weeks ago, Chubb ran for two touchdowns against the Steelers along with 59 yards, making it his best performance since returning from his devastating injury. It took him 20 carries to do it. On Monday night, he slid into more of a time share with Jerome Ford, though Chubb salvaged his value with a receiving TD. The question is whether there are concerns with his workload or if it was simply a byproduct of Cleveland feeling that the passing game was the way to move the ball on Denver, a situation where they preferred to use Ford. We should get more clarity based on the tandem’s Week 14 usage, but it muddies Chubb’s value. As an RB3/flex, he’s worth using.

CLE FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.22
CLE FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.24
CLE FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.6
CLE FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.9

No Brainers: RB Najee Harris, WR George Pickens (hamstring)

Favorites: RB Jaylen Warren

During Pittsburgh’s Thursday night meeting with Cleveland, Warren led the team in rushing (11 carries, 45 yards), added 19 yards as a receiver, and scored his lone TD this season. A week ago, in a shootout with the Bengals, he ran the ball just three times but tallied 55 yards as a pass catcher. That’s six straight weeks of more than 55 total yards for the team’s No. 2 back. The Browns are 23rd in run defense, allowing 128.6 yards per game on the ground, and they had all kinds of trouble with Jaleel McLaughlin, Denver’s change-of-pace back, on Monday (14-84-0). Warren has become a solid flex option over the last month-plus, and he should continue to deliver in that capacity this Sunday.

On the Fence: QB Russell Wilson

While Winston’s rollercoaster performance got the headlines, Wilson wasn’t far off the pace in Week 13, passing for 414 yards, 3 TDs, and 1 INT, which was also returned for a touchdown, versus Cincinnati. It’s tempting to view games like that as the start of a new trend, but in six starts, Wilson has thrown one TD or less three times. That includes his last meeting with Cleveland when he logged 270 yards, 1 TD, and 0 INTs. Granted, the second half of that game was contested in a snowstorm, but it’s more in line with what the Steelers want from Wilson: steady play, smart decisions, and the occasional deep shot. He’s very much a hit-or-miss option versus the Browns in Week 14.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Steelers 31, Browns 20 ^ Top

Panthers @ Eagles - (Caron)
Line: PHI -14.0
Total: 45.5

PHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.29
PHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.27
PHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.25

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Adam Thielen

Carolina Panthers wide receiver Adam Thielen just enjoyed his most productive outing of the season, securing eight receptions for 99 yards and a touchdown. This marked his first true WR1 performance in what has been an otherwise challenging year, marred by a slow start and a seven-game absence due to injury. As the Panthers' offense seeks to simplify plays for their young quarterback, Bryce Young, Thielen stands out as the lone veteran presence in the receiving corps, making him the likely focal point of the passing game. Despite this, his upcoming game presents a tough test as he faces the Philadelphia defense that ranks seventh in the NFL for fewest fantasy points allowed to wide receivers.

Fade: RB Chuba Hubbard

Chuba Hubbard has been the primary back for the Carolina Panthers, but his role is in question following recent performances. In the competitive matchup against the Buccaneers, Hubbard's workload unexpectedly decreased, with him receiving only 12 carries compared to rookie Jonathan Brooks' nine. This shift is notable, especially since Brooks' snap share nearly tripled from his debut. Hubbard's efficiency on the ground was lacking, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry, and his fumble in overtime was a costly mistake that sealed the game for the Bucs.

Despite this, Hubbard has been a surprising asset for fantasy football enthusiasts this year. Given the byes affecting fantasy rosters, he's likely to remain in many lineups. However, for Week 14, he faces a tough challenge against the Eagles' defense.

CAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.6
CAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.1
CAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.20
CAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.1

No Brainers: QB Jalen Hurts, RB Saquon Barkley

Favorites: WR A.J. Brown

Brown accumulated 66 of Hurts' 104 passing yards in the first half this past week. Unfortunately, the second half saw a drastic reduction in passing, with Hurts throwing for just 14 yards, none of which went to Brown. This game was somewhat disappointing for Brown, especially given the Ravens' defense, which has been generous to wide receivers this season. Nevertheless, Brown has been consistent, hitting the 65-yard mark in eight of his nine games played.

Despite Jalen Hurts only attempting 19 passes in the game, Brown's role as the No. 1 receiver for the Eagles didn't translate into a standout performance. However, he still managed to lead the team in receiving stats aside from touchdowns, garnering a 32 percent target share. The absence of DeVonta Smith due to a hamstring injury meant more opportunities for Brown, though Smith is expected to return in Week 14.

Looking ahead, even with an anticipated run-heavy game plan against the Panthers, Brown is likely to retain his status as a top-tier WR1. His bounce-back game in Week 14 will be one to watch, as he looks to dominate against a less challenging defense.

On the Fence: WR DeVonta Smith

DeVonta Smith returned to full participation in practice on Wednesday, indicating his recovery from the hamstring injury that sidelined him for the past two games. Before his injury, Smith had been somewhat inconsistent in his performances. With the Eagles potentially facing a game where they could secure a blowout victory, there's a concern that the team's already conservative passing approach might become even more restrained. This scenario could cap Smith's production if the game script doesn't necessitate a heavy reliance on the passing game.

Fade: N/A

Prediction: Eagles 30, Panthers 16 ^ Top

Jets @ Dolphins - (Caron)
Line: MIA -6.0
Total: 44.5

MIA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.12
MIA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.32
MIA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.12

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Davante Adams

The Jets’ offense has struggled mightily this season, often serving as the butt of jokes around the league, but one bright spot has been wide receiver Davante Adams. Since joining the team in Week 7, Adams has gradually carved out a significant role in the passing attack. He’s become the focal point of the passing game, averaging nearly 11 targets per game over the past four contests.

Adams has yet to achieve a 100-yard receiving game as a member of the Jets, but his consistent involvement has kept him productive. He’s caught five or more passes in each of the past four games, maintaining a respectable average of over 15 fantasy points per game despite the team’s broader offensive struggles.

On the Fence: WR Garrett Wilson

Garrett Wilson has maintained a position among the top wide receivers this season, but his path to finishing as a WR1 appears increasingly uncertain. Since the arrival of Davante Adams in Week 7, Wilson has continued to command attention, averaging 8.5 targets per game. However, his recent production has taken a significant hit, with just 100 total yards and no touchdowns over his past three outings.

The Jets' offensive struggles have hindered Wilson's ability to deliver high-end performances, and the upcoming matchup against a tough Miami defense doesn’t bode well for a bounce-back. The Dolphins have been stingy against opposing receivers, allowing only two players—Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua of the Rams—to catch more than six passes in a game this season.

Update: Breece Hall is Out.

Fade: RB Breece Hall (knee)

Breece Hall has been a stud overall in fantasy football, but his recent production and health scares raise some concerns heading into Week 14. Hall is currently dealing with a lingering knee injury, which caused him to miss practice on Wednesday. This injury has been a recurring issue, and with the Jets teetering on the brink of playoff elimination, there’s a real possibility that the team might prioritize Hall’s long-term health over pushing him to play at full capacity.

Hall played a season-low 62% of the Jets' snaps in Week 13, resulting in just 12 total touches, also a season-low, during the team’s loss to Seattle. While his big-play potential makes him hard to bench, his workload and effectiveness could be impacted, making him a player to monitor closely leading up to game day.

NYJ FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.26
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.23
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.31
NYJ FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.29

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: RB De’Von Achane, TE Jonnu Smith

De’Von Achane has been nothing short of spectacular, delivering three straight 20-point fantasy performances and five such games over his past six outings. His electric playmaking ability has made him a must-start regardless of matchup. That said, this week’s contest against the New York Jets poses a notable challenge. The Jets’ defense ranks among the top 10 toughest against running backs in 2024 and has recently limited elite talents like Kenneth Walker, Jonathan Taylor, and James Conner to a combined 168 rushing yards on 3.2 yards per carry.

Despite the Jets’ stinginess, Achane’s explosive potential and track record make him an exception. His combination of speed, efficiency, and big-play ability sets him apart from traditional runners. This makes him a player you simply cannot bench, even in a challenging on-paper matchup.

Jonnu Smith has emerged as one of the most surprising late-season breakout stars. The Dolphins’ tight end has delivered three consecutive games of over 20 fantasy points, averaging a remarkable 24 points per game during this stretch. Smith’s production isn’t just touchdown-dependent, although he has scored three times over these games. The volume has been eye-opening, with 30 targets, 25 receptions, and 301 receiving yards since Week 11.

Miami has clearly made a concerted effort to get Smith involved, and his reliability and athleticism have shone through. While it’s difficult to maintain such extraordinary production, the Dolphins’ offensive scheme appears to prioritize him, and there’s no immediate reason to expect a regression in involvement. Smith remains a top-tier option in a position group that’s often difficult to navigate.

On the Fence: WR Tyreek Hill

Tyreek Hill, despite nursing a wrist injury that's kept him out of several practices leading up to Week 14, continues to play hard for the Dolphins. His "questionable" status should not overly alarm fantasy football managers; all signs point to him suiting up for the crucial divisional game against the Jets. While Hill hasn't lived up to the explosive expectations set when he was drafted, his performance has been steady enough to warrant starting in fantasy lineups, particularly since quarterback Tua Tagovailoa returned to the field. In recent games, Hill has been a consistent target, compiling nine targets in his most recent outing, which is among the highest he's seen all season, and he's found the end zone three times in his last four games. The matchup against the Jets is challenging, given their stingy defense against wide receivers, but Hill's talent and involvement in the offense make him a must-start in most fantasy settings, except perhaps in very shallow leagues.

Fade: WR Jaylen Waddle

Jaylen Waddle provided a glimmer of hope for fantasy football managers in Week 12 with a standout performance where he caught eight out of nine targets for 144 yards and a touchdown. This surge in productivity led many to reinsert him into their lineups with optimism for the game against Green Bay. However, this optimism was short-lived as Waddle's involvement in the offense diminished significantly this past week, where he was only targeted four times, catching all four for 53 yards. This inconsistency is frustrating but shouldn’t be very surprising as, over the season, Waddle has seen six or fewer targets in all but two games, despite being healthy and playing in every game. His talent is evident, with an average of over 13 yards per reception, yet the lack of target volume, especially heading into a matchup against the stout Jets secondary, makes him a risky start for fantasy managers.

Prediction: Dolphins 23, Jets 17 ^ Top

Seahawks @ Cardinals - (Fessel)
Line: ARI -3.0
Total: 44.5

ARI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.19
ARI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.15
ARI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.15
ARI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.26

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

In Week 13, despite seeing his fewest targets in almost 3 months, Jaxon Smith-Njigba still turned out a high floor performance, reeling in 4 catches for 74 yards. He also added 5 yards on the ground. The added wrinkle of being involved in jet sweeps is a recent addition for Smith-Njigba, only helping to add confidence to the fact that Seattle wants to feature him in the offense. Expect a bounce back in targets this week, however healthy the rest of the receiving core is, and after a 6-77-1 performance against Arizona two weeks ago, he looks poised to continue as a strong Flex play with WR2 upside.

Update: Kenneth Walker is Out.

On the Fence: WR DK Metcalf (shoulder), RB Kenneth Walker (ankle/calf), RB Zach Charbonnet

Both Metcalf and Walker were downgraded to non-participants at practice at Thursday, putting their status in doubt for this weekend.

It should be noted that Metcalf missed practice Wednesday and Thursday last week before playing on Sunday. If Metcalf can play through the injury, he is at risk of being used as a decoy or coming out of the game entirely due to aggravation, and so he should be thought of as no more than a Flex option.

Walker, meanwhile, is likely to cede significant carries to Zach Charbonnet, even if he winds up active this Sunday, making him a very iffy play against a Cardinals defense that has not allowed a rusher to produce more than 52 yards on the ground in the last four weeks. Follow his practice report and status on Friday.

If Walker can’t answer the bell this weekend, Charbonnet stands to regain the bell cow status he enjoyed last time his backfield mate was injured. Charbonnet is one of the most capable backup running backs in the league and while an increasingly difficult Cardinals defense might limit the results, the volume opportunity would make him an RB2. Conversely, if Walker does play, Charbonnet is likely to still see more than enough action to have Flex value in deeper leagues.

Fade: QB Geno Smith, WR Tyler Lockett

Geno Smith was held in check by the Arizona defense just a couple of weeks ago, scoring just 14.4 points. Facing a Cardinals defense that has not allowed an opposing QB to cross the 20-point threshold in the last six weeks and has held two quarterbacks to single-digit performances, there’s just not enough ceiling to start Geno in all but Superflex leagues.

Tyler Lockett appears to be fading into the sunset, having not surpassed 20 yards receiving the last three weeks, nor in four of his last five games. He’s seen no more than 4 targets during that five-game stretch, even with Metcalf missing two of the contests. Lockett did manage a 3-63-1 line against the Rams sans Metcalf, but in the previous week without DK he managed just a 1-9-0 line. It doesn’t appear Lockett has many big games left in the tank, making him an easy fade as long as Metcalf is active.

SEA FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.23
SEA FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.14
SEA FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.19
SEA FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.13

No Brainers: TE Trey McBride

Favorites: N/A

On the Fence: WR Marvin Harrison Jr., RB James Conner

Currently ranked WR39 in points per game, Marvin Harrison Jr. has had a respectable but arguably underwhelming rookie campaign – at least compared to expectations. He’s done quite well in the red zone, collecting 7 touchdowns through 12 games, but is on a pace for just over 850 receiving yards this season, well below the 1000-yard mark that was anticipated.

The Seahawks recently held Harrison to a 3-47-0 line, and are respectable against wide receivers (19th most points allowed), making the prodigy prospect far from a sure bet, even as a Flex. He’s probably best thought of as a WR4 with upside for the matchup.

James Conner has been held under 10 fantasy points in back-to-back games, including against these Seahawks, but his 20 touches last week is a clear indication that he remains a bell cow in this offense. He draws a tough task, as the Seahawks have kept Kyren Williams, Christian McCaffrey, Breece Hall and, of course, Conner all out of the end zone since acquiring Ernest Jones (55 tackles in 5 games) to fix their linebacker woes. Hall was held to just 6 points last week, after Conner walked away with just 7.4 the week prior. Conner’s likely volume and the shortage of options on a bye-laden week keep him just barely in the RB2 conversation.

Fade: QB Kyler Murray

After a turnover-laden performance against the Vikings where he threw just 1 touchdown, Kyler Murray enters Week 14 having thrown for 2 or more touchdowns just twice this year. He’s thrown for zero touchdowns in equally as many games. Murray’s rushing – including 4 touchdowns – is once again keeping him in the QB1 conversation most weeks, though barely. That may not bode well for Murray owners in Week 14.

The Seahawks held Murray to just 9 yards rushing two weeks ago, and have allowed the 5th fewest rushing yards to opposing quarterbacks this season. On the whole, the Seahawks have allowed the 10th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, not making the situation a favorable one for Murray, and rendering him more of a mid-level QB2 than a back-end QB1.

Prediction: Cardinals 19, Seahawks 17 ^ Top

Bills @ Rams - (Fessel)
Line: BUF -3.5
Total: 49.5

LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.14
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.10
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.10

No Brainers: QB Josh Allen, RB James Cook

Favorites: WR Khalil Shakir

While last weekend in the snow hardly produced a banner day for Khalil Shakir (4-30-0), he still reached 7 targets for the sixth straight game despite Josh Allen attempting just 17 passes. Tossing out last week’s outlier due to the weather, Shakir had otherwise reached at least 6 receptions in the prior five games. With just 5 career touchdowns in three seasons, he’s not a high ceiling play, but he does offer a strong floor for managers looking to plug a hole in their lineup, especially against the Rams.

On the Fence: WR Amari Cooper

Now two weeks removed from injury, is there enough room in this offense, and enough in the tank, for 30-year-old Amari Cooper to become a fantasy factor down the stretch. This was something many envisioned when he was teamed up with Josh Allen, but it has yet to come to fruition, and the fact that Cooper has yet to see greater than 51% of offensive snaps further muddies the water as to whether it will happen. The Rams have provided break out performances to other wide receivers this year, and so despite just 6 total targets over the last two weeks, Cooper has some boom potential, but there’s plenty of bust risk, as well. He’s a major roll of the dice for those who want to give him a shot at flex this week.

Update: Dalton Kincaid is not expected to play.

Fade: TE Dalton Kincaid, TE Dawson Knox

Tight end Dalton Kincaid hasn’t had the step-forward that many anticipated in year 2, and recently has been sidelined by injury, but he could return this week after logging two limited practices to start the week. If he does return, questions linger as to what his snap count will be, and where he now stands on the target tree with the presence of Amari Cooper. It’s probably best to sit him and watch how he handles his return.

While the Rams have hardly been great against tight ends (10th most FPts allowed), Dawson Knox hasn’t really found a place in this offense – even sans Dalton Kincaid, nor even against the likes of the Chiefs defense (6 pts). Even if Kincaid doesn’t return this week, Knox is arguably only a deep play despite the matchup.

BUF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
BUF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.3
BUF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.30
BUF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.23

No Brainers: RB Kyren Williams

Favorites: WR Cooper Kupp, WR Puka Nacua

The Bills have a stifling pass defense, and that needs to be acknowledged. But there’s no way that Cooper Kupp or Puka Nacua can be benched with the high-end production they have provided for fantasy owners whenever healthy. Expectations may need to be dampened a bit against Buffalo-D that’s given up the third fewest fantasy points to the position, but both Kupp and Nacua are still WR2 plays.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: QB Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford has averaged just over 20 points per game since his favorite pair of targets returned from injury six games ago. He has made a fair case that he’s once again a borderline QB1, having Nacua and Kupp to thrown to. But drawing the Bills defense drops him firmly into QB2 territory this week, and out of standard league play. The Bills have given up the 6th fewest passing yards to quarterbacks.

Prediction: Bills 24, Rams 21 ^ Top

Bears @ 49ers - (Fessel)
Line: SF -3.5
Total: 43.5

SF FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.24
SF FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.6
SF FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.26
SF FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.30

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: N/A

Update: D'Andre Swift is listed as Questionable.

On the Fence: D’Andre Swift (quad)

D’Andre Swift has missed both practices to start the week, putting his odds of facing a vulnerable 49ers run defense in doubt. If he does rally to play this weekend, he’s worth consideration as an RB2, even in a shared role, as the Bears will likely be without Roshon Johnson due to a concussion and the 49ers have been getting gashed on the ground recently.

Fade: QB Caleb Williams, WR D.J. Moore (quad), WR Keenan Allen, TE Cole Kmet

Despite talk of progress in Caleb Williams play, he is ranked just 24th in FPts/G among fantasy quarterbacks over the last five weeks. The 49ers have allowed the 9th fewest points to opposing quarterbacks, making starting the rookie highly questionable, even in Superflex formats.

D.J. Moore has carried situational flex value this season, but beyond drawing a solid defense, he’s also yet to practice this week and is at serious risk of playing in a limited fashion, if he plays at all. Sitting Moore seems like a reasonable choice this week.

Keenan Allen, the Bears leader in targets, has enjoyed a spike in production over the last two weeks, scoring 3 touchdowns in that span, and now has 5 on the season. All 5 have come in easy matchups, while Allen has otherwise found himself fruitlessly diving after throws from Caleb Williams, who has struggled to find a connection with his All-Pro receiver this year. Even if Moore misses this contest, target volume may still be a concern against solid defenses such as the 49ers.

Tight end Cole Kmet, like the rest of the Bears receiving weapons, has had a very up-and-down season while trying to connect with his first-year quarterback. Kmet has still etched out a year that finds him just outside the top 12, but Fred Warner and the 49ers stifle tight ends like few others, lending Kmet to bench-warming duty on fantasy rosters this week.

CHI FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.31
CHI FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.9
CHI FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.29
CHI FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14

No Brainers: TE George Kittle

Favorites: RB Isaac Guerendo

It’s the next-man-next-man-up for the 49ers, as they’ll be without both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason this week. McCaffrey is on IR, so his status is a certainty, but Mason’s ankle injury appears to have him headed for being inactive. Last time Guerrendo was presented with an opportunity, he rushed 14 times for 85 yards and a score. A few weeks prior to that, in a game Jordan Mason exited, he broke off a 76-yard run and tallied 10 rushes for 99 yards.

Guerendo’s size and explosive speed are not in doubt. He is the kind of player who needs just one big hole to make a fantasy day. Whether that hole will appear if Trent Williams is inactive this weekend remains to be seen, but the Bears have been somewhat vulnerable to the run (9th most points allowed to running backs), and Guerendo should see the bulk of the action for the 49ers this weekend, making him a solid RB2 option.

On the Fence: WR Deebo Samuel, WR Jauan Jennings

On the whole, the 49ers season has come to where it’s at via many factors. One being the silence of Deebo Samuel in the offense, including his evaporating involvement in the run game. Samuel did not see a single rush the last two weeks, and three weeks ago he had just 1 carry for negative 1 yard. Samuel owners can hope that the absence of the team’s top 2 running backs will push him back into the frame, and perhaps the loss of McCaffrey as a receiver will open up more targets as well. He’s a risky play due to the fact that he’s had 21 yards of offense or less for three straight games, but there is a chance he sees a shift in volume this week. He’s a very, very unusual boom-or-bust flex option against the Bears.

Currently WR24 in FPts/G, Jauan Jennings will have his work cut out for him this week against a Bears defense that allows the 4th fewest points to the position. The absence of a couple of key targets for Brock Purdy should support Jennings volume, and he may need all of it to etch out a Flex-worthy day.

Fade: QB Brock Purdy

Brock Purdy has had his biggest struggles when Trent Williams has been out, and Williams has yet to practice this week with an ankle injury. While Purdy’s performance against the Bills last week can be largely thrown out due to the weather, the 49ers have been losing offensive parts on a regular basis, and the offense is starting to look human. The Bears are quite unkind to opposing quarterbacks, allowing the 2nd fewest points to the position, making Purdy more of a QB2 than a QB1 this week.

Prediction: 49ers 17, Bears 16 ^ Top

Chargers @ Chiefs - (Fessel)
Line: KC -4.0
Total: 42.5

KC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
KC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.32
KC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.16
KC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.4

No Brainers: N/A

Update: Ladd McConkey is a gametime decision.

Favorites: WR Ladd McConkey (knee/shoulder), TE Will Dissly

After Ladd McConkey registered his third 100-yard performance in the last six games, there isn’t any doubt about starting him, assuming he’s healthy for the weekend. He carries a solid floor and a high ceiling, making him a fine WR2 in Week 14.

Meanwhile, Will Dissly draws a Chiefs defense that continues to struggle against opposing tight ends, getting shredded by Brock Bowers for 140 yards on 10 receptions last week. Dissly is no Bowers, but he has shown mid-to-high end TE2 value against defenses that have struggled against the position this year. In a week where bye weeks and injuries (ie. Taysom Hill, Dallas Goedert) are gutting the position, he can easily be regarded as a solid streaming option against Kansas City.

On the Fence: QB Justin Herbert

While Justin Herbert is just 26th among quarterbacks in points per game, it has not been due to lack of effectiveness. Herbert has 15 combined touchdowns against just 1 interception, an exceptional rate. Additionally, on the backs of a growing connection with Ladd McConkey, Herbert has produced at least 19.5 fantasy points in four of the last six contests.

Herbert and the Chargers head to Kansas City, to face a Chiefs team that has given up 19.7 fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks over the last six games, despite facing the Raiders twice, as well as the Panthers. No opposing quarterback has produced less than 16 points against them during that span, providing a high floor. This matchup doesn’t turn Herbert into a QB1, but if you’re in position where you have to reach, or are in a Superflex league, Herbert makes a respectable option.

Fade: RB Gus Edwards

Even following J.K. Dobbins injury, Gus Edwards has yet to top 10 touches since returning from his own injury a month ago. Facing the stingiest run defense in the league, Edwards unfortunately doesn’t have that much of a path to a productive fantasy day, and is best left on the end of the bench.

LAC FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.18
LAC FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
LAC FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.18
LAC FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.27

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: QB Patrick Mahomes, RB Isiah Pacheco

While Week 13 was not a banner week for Patrick Mahomes, he threw for 300 yards, continuing to produce more like the Mahomes we’re accustomed to. He may be a more muted version, but he’s back to a place where in all but the toughest matchups he can be looked at as at least a low-end QB1, including this one against a Chargers defense that is tough, but has been middling against opposing quarterbacks.

Running back Isiah Pacheco made it through his first game back unscathed, handling 8 touches in the process. His role in the offense should only grow, but while last week was encouraging, there wasn’t enough action to cement him as the team’s clear RB1 just yet. That does present some risk, and facing a Chargers defense that has given up the 6th fewest points to the position should raise some red flags on Pacheco.

Yet, the Chargers have been very vulnerable to the run recently. In the last three weeks, Chase Brown, Derrick Henry, Justice Hill and Bijan Robinson have all scored at least 13.2 points against the Chargers, and Hill only saw 6 touches. The Chargers sudden issues against the ground game bode well for Pacheco finding Flex value as he works back to being the top back in KC.

On the Fence: WR DeAndre Hopkins, TE Travis Kelce

Last week, DeAndre Hopkins matched his Chiefs-high in targets with 9, and reached his highest yardage total with the team yet – 90 yards (on 4 receptions). That performance gave him back-to-back 11+ point fantasy outputs, and he’s now hit or surpassed that mark in three of his last five games with Mahomes.

Hopkins snap rate was 59% a week ago, and he’s yet to receive greater than a 65% rate on K.C., so there’s not yet a clear indication that he’s going to become centrifugal to the offense. Still, he’s securely in the flex conversation going forward, including this week.

The Chargers continue to stifle tight ends, holding Kyle Pitts to 0 points last week. That’s the second time in the last three weeks that they’ve held an opposing starting tight end to no points. Travis Kelce is 7th among tight ends in fantasy points, but he has shown a near-zero floor repeatedly this season, and has struggled with efficiency. Furthermore, Noah Gray continues to carve out an increasing role in the offense (4-58-0 on 6 targets last week), a further threat to Kelce’s weekly floor and ceiling.

Kelce did have a very solid day against the Chargers earlier this year (7-89-0), but Mahomes has more on the menu to select from now. Kelce is more of a back end TE1 than a shoe-in choice against the Chargers, even in a week where there are several significant tight ends inactive.

Fade: RB Kareem Hunt, TE Noah Gray

While the Chargers recent issues against the run provide some boom potential for Hunt, there is a real chance that he barely sees the field if Isiah Pacheco finishes the practice week strongly enough and comes out of the gate well in Week 14. That risk, coupled with the fact that Hunt scored just 2.5 points last week, makes sitting him the best play.

While Noah Gray’s rise into fantasy football relevance has been quite impressive, short-handed owners and streamers who have benefited from Gray’s rise may want to give pause this week, considering the opponent. The Chargers have not permitted a single TE2 to have a productive fantasy day this entire season. It’s against the odds for Gray to break that trend, even for how well he’s done.

Prediction: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17 ^ Top

Bengals @ Cowboys - (Caron)
Line: CIN -5.5
Total: 49.5

DAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.4
DAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.5
DAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.14
DAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19

No Brainers: QB Joe Burrow, WR Ja’Marr Chase, WR Tee Higgins

Favorites: RB Chase Brown

Chase Brown's involvement in the Bengals' offense has been on the rise, especially with Zack Moss out due to a neck injury. Despite being somewhat scripted out of the Bengals' strategy in their Week 13 loss, Brown still managed to exceed 100 yards from scrimmage for the third time in his last four games. His average of 18.5 rush attempts and 5.5 receptions per game during this period speaks to his significant role, positioning him as a reliable RB2 in fantasy football with the potential for RB1 production.

In his latest game, Brown showed flashes of his capability by gaining 54 rushing yards and scoring a touchdown early, but the game dynamics shifted as the Bengals played catch-up, reducing his carries in the second half. Still, Brown’s consistent performance, particularly in reaching the end zone or surpassing the 100-yard mark from scrimmage in his last five games, makes him a strong bet against the Cowboys defense that has been generous to opposing running backs.

On the Fence: N/A

Fade: TE Mike Gesicki

While Mike Gesicki's physical talents and potential for big plays might seem like a reason to include him in fantasy lineups, his role within the Bengals' offense has diminished with Tee Higgins back in action. Gesicki's target count has significantly decreased from 23 targets in the three weeks leading up to Higgins' return, to just seven over the past two games. His place in the pecking order is now likely fourth behind Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, and even Chase Brown when the offense is near the goal line.

Additionally, the Week 14 matchup against the Cowboys presents another challenge; their defense has been particularly tough on tight ends this season. Only George Kittle from the San Francisco 49ers has managed to surpass 55 receiving yards against them. This includes multiple notable weekly tight end starters which suggests caution when considering starting Gesicki.

CIN FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.3
CIN FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
CIN FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
CIN FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.2

No Brainers: N/A

Favorites: WR CeeDee Lamb (shoulder)

CeeDee Lamb is dealing with a shoulder injury that has been a factor in his recent performances. This past week against the Giants, Lamb saw only six targets, breaking a six-game streak where he saw at least 10 targets. This was largely due to the Cowboys' strategy to run the ball and secure the win after building a lead against the Giants.

The upcoming Monday night game against the Bengals presents a different scenario. The Bengals, despite their 4-8 record, boast an explosive offense, suggesting a closer game where Dallas cannot afford to sit on a lead. Lamb is expected to be heavily involved in the game plan, especially given his capability to handle a significant target share. With the Bengals' defense ranking as a top-10 matchup for wide receivers in 2024, Lamb has the potential for a substantial fantasy outing, provided he gets the usual number of targets, which should be around 10 or more.

On the Fence: QB Cooper Rush, RB Rico Dowdle

Fantasy football enthusiasts seeking a dark horse quarterback option might consider starting Dallas Cowboys' Cooper Rush in Week 14. Over the last three games, Rush has shown competence, averaging 265 passing yards per game with four touchdowns and only one interception. He’s thrown at least 32 pass attempts in each of those games, indicating the Cowboys' commitment to passing even in Dak Prescott's absence.

The matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals is particularly appealing for Rush. The Bengals' defense has struggled significantly against quarterbacks this season, allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. Their recent performances have been even more telling, with over 1,000 passing yards and nine passing touchdowns given up in their last three games.

While starting Rush carries inherent risk due to the possibility of a poor performance, the context of the game suggests potential for a high-scoring affair. With Vegas projecting a high point total for this Monday night game, Rush could find himself in a scenario ripe for fantasy points.

Fade: WR Brandin Cooks

While the prospect of a high-scoring game might suggest that several players could have fantasy relevance, it seems less probable that Brandin Cooks will be a significant contributor. Although Cooks did manage to score a touchdown in his recent game, marking his return from a Week 4 injury, his overall stats are underwhelming. With only 12 receptions for 107 yards over five games this season, Cooks' fantasy relevance largely hinges on his ability to score, particularly in the red zone where he has proven effective for the Cowboys. However, relying solely on his touchdown potential is not the best strategy for fantasy managers, given Cooks’ inconsistent involvement in the passing game.

Prediction: Bengals 27, Cowboys 21 ^ Top