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The Art of the Auction


Auction Strategy - 2024

By Doug Orth | 8/23/24 |


Auction drafting is my favorite way to build a fantasy football team. While the general idea of this format is to allow every owner an equal opportunity to acquire players, it also combines the ability to value a player’s potential contribution with managing a budget, all while testing a drafter’s patience. Perhaps most importantly, it also tests the conviction a fantasy manager has in certain players more than a snake draft ever will. Opportunity cost is a huge consideration.

Furthermore, auction drafts reward the prepared and punish the unprepared. In snake drafts, it is obvious to anyone using a well-organized draft board when a player is slipping. In auctions, managers need to be keenly aware of the available players and balance that against their remaining funds. Owners must decide what players they like the most and to what lengths they are willing to go to secure their services, which is perhaps the best part of auctions - along with the aforementioned fact that every manager has an equal opportunity to land a player.

It has been said that you get whom your league-mates allow you to get in snake drafts, while you get to decide exactly how you want to build your team in auctions. I think that is a great way to look at the difference between the two formats. It is also why I believe auctions should be the standard way of drafting.

This coming season will mark the 16th year I have represented FFToday in The Huddle Expert Auction League. Over the first 15 seasons, I have made the six-team playoff 13 times and advanced to the championship game on eight occasions, winning it all four times. Suffice it to say my approach has proven to be effective.

This year’s draft took place on Aug. 20, so keep that date in mind as you review how I valued each player and the prices they went for in this draft.

General Auction Considerations/Strategies

Below are some of the rules I live by in auctions and some of the reasons I have enjoyed so much success in this format. There are obviously more than 10 auction rules to observe, but this should be a helpful list for most managers.

1. Use auction values customized to your league's settings.

This may seem like an obvious statement, but you might be surprised how many fantasy managers fail to do it. One size does not fit all. For the veteran manager who wants to create his/her own (which I recommend), this objective can be achieved by studying the values of players in your league over the last year or two - especially for those at the top of each position. When you can be confident in the price ceiling for the top players at each position, it makes valuing every other player below them much easier. My SSI (Success Score Index) also makes assigning values easy once I have determined what the ceiling is (or should be). I also like to get a sense as to how many players at a particular position go for a double-digit bid (i.e. six quarterbacks went for $10 or more, 15 running backs went for $20 or more, etc.). I set my prices for players at what I believe should be their ceiling, so I do not go over my valuation on a player unless there is a specific objective I am trying to accomplish at that particular moment. Perhaps my only exception to the last rule: I may go up to $2 over on one of "my guys."

2. Find an easy way to identify "my guys."

Time is of the essence in most auctions, so fantasy managers should have a quick and easy way to identify a player they are targeting as they scroll up and down their lists. (I underlined the players below that I specifically targeted on Aug. 20.) One of the best features of an auction is that every fantasy manager has the same opportunity to land each player - at least at the beginning of the draft. If you want a certain player enough, odds are you will probably get him - until the money starts running out.

3. Identify the players you want as the core of your team.

This is slightly different from the preceding paragraph in that we are talking about selecting a group of two or three players whom you would ideally build your team around if the draft plays out perfectly. (Be realistic and set your sights on players from different valuation levels.) This does not mean you set your sights on Christian McCaffrey, CeeDee Lamb and Travis Kelce. It is possible in an auction, but it makes it difficult to fill out the rest of your roster with players good enough to support them.

4. Setting positional budgets is overrated.

While I can see how it might be helpful for the new auction player, I have never set a pre-draft budget by position for any auction. Much like snake drafting, fantasy owners should do whatever they can to avoid backing themselves into a corner or creating more obstacles for themselves. Some snake drafts shake out in a way that it becomes obvious a receiver-heavy approach makes sense, while others play out in a way where running backs should be the focus. A similar thing can happen in auctions. What if your budget for running back is 40 percent and half of the other owners' budgets are 45-50 percent? Chances are your running back-centric focus will need to become receiver-focused, making it one more thing you need to adjust to on the fly. It makes more sense to figure out before the draft how you want to build around Amon-Ra St. Brown or Patrick Mahomes or whomever you deem as an acceptable low-end RB1 if your initial RB-centric plan does not come to fruition.

5. Nominate with a purpose.

Nominating early in an auction draft should be about either securing your foundation pieces or setting the expectation for a tier. In other words, if I nominate Ja'Marr Chase and believe he is an elite WR1, it should be because I want him or because I want to know if I can trust my valuations for the rest of that tier. I tend to nominate "buzzy" players in the early rounds with an eye on trying to get my fellow league-mates to "chase the cheese" with their virtual wallets. Other times, I will target my nominations with an eye on getting a specific manager to open up his/her checkbook on a player in hopes of eliminating him/her from competition for another player at the same position I want more.

6. It's OK to enforce prices, but do not become THE league's price enforcer.

Just like snake drafts, auction drafting is about collecting value. Do not allow the bidding to stop on Josh Allen at $11 (assuming a $200 cap). Seize him at $12 and figure out how to reconfigure your draft plan after that. With that said, your job is to build the best team possible. Your job is not to enforce prices on every player that is going too cheap.

7. Keep 'em guessing and do not be afraid to force the action. At the same time, do not rush into action too quickly.

Many auction players equate the draft room to playing poker. One of the keys to being a good poker player is never giving your opponents a tell. Nominate players you want and ones you do not (do the latter too much too early or else you might get stuck with a few $1 players you do not want). Do the same with your bidding. If you are consistently changing things up with your nominations and your bidding, the other managers in your league will not be able to get a read on you … which becomes important if you play with the same managers year after year.

Do not hesitate to be the man or woman in the draft room who knows what he or she wants. Force the action. If someone puts out a bid and you consistently counter just as soon as the other manager closes his/her mouth, it can make the other manager a bit timid. Another way to force the action is to jump bid (only on players that you know will fetch a fair amount). When a manager puts out a $15 bid and you quickly bump it up to $25, it can be a bit intimidating to some in the draft room.

While forcing the action can be a good thing, do not be too eager to do it right away. Every auction is different, but it is usually a good idea to let other managers set the market. Did Bijan Robinson go for $40 for some reason? OK, it might end up being a soft running back market. Did Tyreek Hill go for $60? OK, it may not be worth your time to invest in the high-end receiver market.

8. Use your free time (i.e. sitting out an auction on a player you have no desire to roster) to monitor the roster needs and (especially) the budgets of the other managers. Also, develop a sense of when to use "the hammer" when you have it.

The first sentence should be self-explanatory. It comes into play more in the middle part of your draft and definitely toward the end of it. The second sentence is one of the best parts of an auction: a player you desire is available and you have the most money (and/or the highest max bid) remaining. For example, Zay Flowers has somehow escaped nomination through 150 picks and no one else in the room can bid more than $7. As long as you trust yourself not to pursue any other eye candy, feel free to watch other owners continue to pass him by - making him an even better value. If that does not sound like fun (it should), then the moment you realize you have "the hammer" is about the time you should drop it on the rest of the room.

9. Track what your league-mates are doing.

This ties in somewhat with No. 7 and No. 8. A next-level move for veteran auction players is to chart who bids almost exclusively on players he/she nominates. Occasionally, a manager is guilty of doing this. Even if only one or two managers do this in your league's auction, it could remove them from competing against you for another player later in the draft.

10. For the love of all that is good, do not leave money on the table in an auction!

There is a reason this piece of advice is in virtually every auction draft piece. There is absolutely no reason to leave an auction with any money on the table unless there is some connection between your auction budget and your FAAB. One of the most egregious examples I have witnessed was in a high-stakes auction three years ago where an owner left $17 on the table. Using this draft as an example, $17 would allow you to do any of the following: get Patrick Mahomes, upgrade from Travis Etienne to Breece Hall or land Tee Higgins. DO NOT LEAVE MONEY ON THE TABLE!!!!

Pre-draft

My primary focus entering this draft was acquiring one top-five running back (preferably Saquon Barkley), two other running backs I was confident in starting, three of my top 25 receivers (including one of my top seven), Anthony Richardson and Kyle Pitts. While I will admit it is a dangerous proposition to target one specific player at a position, I had fallback options (such as Kyler Murray and Jayden Daniels at quarterback and Evan Engram at tight end) that I was willing to pivot to if necessary. My reason for targeting Richardson and Pitts is simple: I want players - especially at the onesie positions - who could obliterate their draft cost. I have also not done the best job of drafting youth in this league in recent years, so I wanted to make that more of a priority in this draft.

The Draft

As I have done in recent seasons, I thought it would be a good idea if readers could access the entire auction on a bid-by-bid basis. For those degenerates who love to see an auction strategy unfold, analyzing a draft this way can help provide some insight into when and why certain decisions were made.

Once again, players whose names are underlined were my targets entering this draft, which is a task I would encourage all auction drafters to perform before their auction drafts. The most important thing to do here is to pick players to target from several different tiers and expected cost valuations.

Below you will find the actual prices that secured a player’s services in the aforementioned Huddle Auction (Hud $) and the price I valued them at (My $). A dash in the second column means a player was not nominated. The green highlight in the price columns represents winning bids for FFToday. I will follow each position group with some of my thoughts.

All values are based on a $200 cap and players are organized by “My $”. All of the players that were nominated are included. I removed several players who are unlikely to go in auctions in 12-team leagues with 18-man rosters or for other common-sense reasons. The colors in the "FPos" column give me a clear indicator of how I have players tiered at that position.

Required starters: 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 K and 1 Defense/Special Teams unit.

 Quarterbacks
My $ Hud $ FPos Player Team Age PPR SSI
20 17 QB1 Patrick Mahomes KC 28 2.1
20 16 QB2 Jalen Hurts PHI 26 2.1
17 18 QB3 Anthony Richardson IND 22 0.7
17 18 QB4 Lamar Jackson BAL 27 0.7
15 18 QB5 Josh Allen BUF 28 0.6
15 13 QB6 C.J. Stroud HOU 22 0.0
13 4 QB7 Joe Burrow CIN 27 -0.9
13 14 QB8 Kyler Murray ARI 27 -0.9
11 3 QB9 Jayden Daniels WAS 23 -1.3
11 4 QB10 Dak Prescott DAL 31 -1.3
9 5 QB11 Jordan Love GB 25 -2.1
8 1 QB12 Caleb Williams CHI 22 -2.2
6 1 QB13 Brock Purdy SF 24 -2.8
4 1 QB14 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 26 -3.0
4 1 QB15 Trevor Lawrence JAC 24 -3.1
3 1 QB16 Jared Goff DET 29 -3.2
2 1 QB17 Aaron Rodgers NYJ 40 -3.6
2  - QB18 Geno Smith SEA 33 -3.6
2  - QB19 Matthew Stafford LAR 36 -3.6
2  - QB20 Justin Herbert LAC 26 -3.7
1 1 QB21 Kirk Cousins ATL 36 -4.3
1  - QB22 Daniel Jones NYG 27 -4.4
1  - QB23 Deshaun Watson CLE 28 -4.4
1 3 QB24 Will Levis TEN 25 -4.6
1 1 QB25 Baker Mayfield TB 29 -5.0
1 1 QB26 Justin Fields PIT 25 -5.7

Observations: Especially with the depth of the quarterback position now, it is irresponsible for managers to spend more than $20 on the position - specifically on one quarterback. A case can be made that each of the top 11 quarterbacks above can throw for at least 30 touchdowns or run for 10 touchdowns - if not both. If you do not have a particularly strong feeling about any of them - as I do with Richardson - do not hesitate to take the cheapest option and spend elsewhere. I landed Joe Burrow ($4) for $7 in the 14-team King's Classic on Aug. 10 and felt like that was a bargain. He could be every bit as productive as C.J. Stroud ($13) this year and was $9 cheaper in this draft. (Look at some of the players that went for $9 below.) I may have to reconsider my stance on Richardson over the next two weeks in auctions if Burrow and Jordan Love ($5) consistently cost as little as they did here and in the King's Classic.

Quarterback spending in this league has been more responsible over the last two seasons. This is the first time in all of my years in this league that I can remember every quarterback going for less than $20. With that said, five of the managers in this league - myself included - came close. I decided several days before the draft that I would pay up for Richardson if it made sense to do so. Although Richardson was only the second quarterback nominated, I showed a bit of shortsightedness in paying up for him. I should have remembered Josh Allen ($18) is generally considered the favorite to be QB1. When Allen came up for nomination about five minutes earlier, I should have realized that point that the ceiling for spending at the position had likely been reached. It's not so much that I regret getting Richardson because it is not hard for me to build a case for him being the overall QB1 this year. I should have realized I might have been able to get a slight discount on Patrick Mahomes ($17) and Jalen Hurts ($16) - the two quarterbacks who I have ranked higher than Richardson.

Strategy: Especially in leagues that award four points per passing touchdown (as this one does), I want my starting quarterback to be a capable run threat at the very least. If I am convinced he has massive rushing upside, then I will go the extra mile to acquire him. If there is reason to believe that rushing upside comes attached to a good play-caller and a coach who will play with pace, then we are talking about most of the ingredients it takes for a quarterback to have a special season. If managers are not as enthralled with rushing upside at quarterback as I am, there is nothing wrong with accepting the best bargain of the top 10 quarterbacks above, backing him up with a $1 signal-caller such as Brock Purdy and using those savings to spend up at another position. Short of a truly special season by a quarterback - which is what I projecting for Richardson - your choice at this position probably will not make or break your season.

Total spent at QB: $19

 Running Backs
My $ Hud $ FPos Player Team Age SSI
46 54 RB1 Breece Hall NYJ 23 9.6
46 50 RB2 Christian McCaffrey SF 28 9.6
44 52 RB3 Bijan Robinson ATL 22 9.4
39 41 RB4 Saquon Barkley PHI 27 6.1
37 41 RB5 Jonathan Taylor IND 25 5.9
37 40 RB6 Jahmyr Gibbs DET 22 5.9
34 37 RB7 Isiah Pacheco KC 24 4.5
31 29 RB8 Derrick Henry BAL 30 3.2
31 35 RB9 Josh Jacobs GB 26 3.1
30 22 RB10 De'Von Achane MIA 22 2.9
30 33 RB11 Kenneth Walker SEA 23 2.5
30 28 RB12 Kyren Williams LAR 23 2.5
28 26 RB13 Joe Mixon HOU 28 2.4
28 22 RB14 Alvin Kamara NO 29 2.2
26 37 RB15 Travis Etienne Jr. JAC 25 1.8
25 13 RB16 James Conner ARI 29 1.8
24 13 RB17 Aaron Jones MIN 29 1.7
22 17 RB18 Rachaad White TB 25 0.9
19 27 RB19 James Cook BUF 24 0.9
18 11 RB20 Najee Harris PIT 26 0.9
18 22 RB21 David Montgomery DET 27 0.8
17 9 RB22 Tyjae Spears TEN 23 0.6
16 19 RB23 Tony Pollard TEN 27 0.5
16 20 RB24 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 26 0.4
15 10 RB25 D'Andre Swift CHI 25 0.1
15 16 RB26 Javonte Williams DEN 24 0.0
13 10 RB27 Raheem Mostert MIA 32 -0.2
13 7 RB28 Jaylen Warren PIT 25 -0.3
13 15 RB29 Zamir White LV 24 -0.3
12 9 RB30 Chase Brown CIN 24 -0.3
12 11 RB31 Brian Robinson Jr. WAS 25 -0.4
12 9 RB32 Jonathon Brooks CAR 21 -0.4
11 9 RB33 Austin Ekeler WAS 29 -0.2
10 5 RB34 Jerome Ford CLE 24 -1.0
10 2 RB35 Jaleel McLaughlin DEN 23 -1.0
7 6 RB36 Devin Singletary NYG 26 -2.9
7 3 RB37 Blake Corum LAR 23 -2.9
6 6 RB38 Chuba Hubbard CAR 25 -3.2
6 6 RB39 Nick Chubb CLE 28 -3.5
5 9 RB40 Gus Edwards LAC 29 -3.7
5 7 RB41 Zack Moss CIN 26 -3.8
4 5 RB42 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 29 -4.1
3 1 RB43 Ray Davis BUF 24 -4.4
3 2 RB44 Bucky Irving TB 22 -4.5
3 2 RB45 Zach Charbonnet SEA 23 -4.6
2 1 RB46 Ty Chandler MIN 26 -5.5
2 1 RB47 Kimani Vidal LAC 22 -5.7
2 2 RB48 Antonio Gibson NE 26 -5.9
2 2 RB49 Khalil Herbert CHI 26 -5.9
2 3 RB50 Tyler Allgeier ATL 24 -6.2
2 3 RB51 Tyrone Tracy Jr. NYG 24 -6.3
2 3 RB52 Rico Dowdle DAL 26 -6.3
2 1 RB53 MarShawn Lloyd GB 23 -6.4
2 1 RB54 Braelon Allen NYJ 20 -6.5
2 1 RB55 Dylan Laube LV 24 -6.9
2 3 RB56 Trey Benson ARI 22 -6.9
1 1 RB57 Tank Bigsby JAC 22 -7.2
1  - RB58 Kendre Miller NO 22 -7.2
1 1 RB59 Jordan Mason SF 25 -7.3
1  - RB60 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 25 -7.5
1 1 RB61 J.K. Dobbins LAC 25 -7.7
1  - RB62 Roschon Johnson CHI 23 -7.8
1  - RB63 Dameon Pierce HOU 24 -8.2
1 10 RB64 Jaylen Wright MIA 21 -8.6
1  - RB65 Keaton Mitchell BAL 22 -9.3
1  - RB66 Deuce Vaughn DAL 22 -9.2
1  - RB67 Michael Carter ARI 25 -9.2
1  - RB68 AJ Dillon GB 26 -9.5
1  - RB69 Miles Sanders CAR 27 -9.5
1  - RB70 Trey Sermon IND 25 -9.7
1 3 RB71 Audric Estime DEN 20 -9.8
1 2 RB72 Elijah Mitchell SF 26 -11.3
1  - RB73 Kenneth Gainwell PHI 25 -12.7
1 1 RB73 Jamaal Williams NO
1 1 RB74 Will Shipley PHI
1 1 RB75 D'Onta Foreman CLE

Observations: I find it mildly interesting that the average price of the top 10 backs this year was the exact same number as last year ($42). There was more of an upper class in this draft with three backs drawing a bid of at least $50 - something that has not happened in this league since 2021. Unsurprisingly given how fantasy football has been trending in recent years, the overall amount this league has spent at the position has dropped every year since I began tracking it three years ago. Since managers spent $1,126 at running back in 2021, it fell to $1,029 in 2022 and $922 in 2023 before reaching $889 this time around - an average of $74 per team. (That number was $94 in 2021.)

The timing of nominations tends to have a dramatic effect on some of the prices that certain players go for in an auction - something that most veteran players know well. Another thing most veteran players know: desperation creeps in at the end of a perceived tier. For example, I am reasonably certain I have Kenneth Walker ($33) ranked as high as anyone in the industry. He will probably not go for $33 in any other auction you or I will participate in for the rest of the summer. There is also no reason to believe he will provide his fantasy team $20 more value than Aaron Jones ($13) will if each of them plays most of the season. James Cook ($27) may appear to have the backfield locked up in Buffalo, but what is his upside? Is he really twice as valuable as James Conner ($13) or capable of matching Derrick Henry's ceiling ($29)?

I was mildly surprised with the relatively cool market for De'Von Achane ($22) given the hype that has surrounded him for most of the offseason. Part of my reasoning for nominating him early was to get a couple of managers to open up their wallets and engage in a bidding war. I have not been his biggest fan this summer, but a part of me believes I should have found room for him at his price.

Some of the best bargains at running back were three of my winning bids - Conner, Jonathon Brooks ($9) and Tyjae Spears ($9) - Raheem Mostert ($10), Najee Harris ($11), D'Andre Swift ($10), Blake Corum ($3) and Ray Davis ($1). On one hand, it is easy to understand why each player went for the price he did. On the other hand, half of this group will see too much volume to be priced so low and the other half have immense contingent value.

Strategy: My advice: find your anchor at running back who is almost guaranteed to handle 15-18 touches every week and will serve as an important part of his team's passing game and avoid the temptation of spending more than $20 (roughly) on an RB2. Look no further than how running backs are compensated now and how unpredictable coaches can be in assigning snaps to the position - especially if the top back fumbles - as to why it does not make sense to spend big. There are a handful of backs seemingly locked into heavy workloads. Try to get the best deal you can on at least one of them and lean on other positions to carry your team. Round out your running back group with a few high-upside handcuffs.

Every season, there is usually at least one obvious RB1 candidate priced as a RB2 for one reason or another - be it age, injury history or something else. The lack of bell-cow backs in the league almost makes it impossible for fantasy managers to avoid feeling like their RB2 spot is their weakest spot, so try to embrace it. Conner and Aaron Jones are two examples of players managers seem to be avoiding, and it is not hard to understand why: both come with age concerns and lengthy injury histories. Both players have also proven repeatedly they can perform at a RB1 level and should see plenty of volume. Buy the dip. Loading up on two running backs in the $30-40 range may feel good during the draft, but it sets your team up to crash if they succumb to injury like so many players at the position do.

After securing my top two runners, I want to stash several backs with massive contingent upside on my bench. The epitome of that mindset this season is Blake Corum. Perhaps the only thing better is to land a couple of backs whose upside may not be contingent, which is how things played out for me above - at least with my RB3 and RB4 selections (Jonathon Brooks and Tyjae Spears). My "contingent upside backs" in this draft were Braelon Allen and Tank Bigsby. My only reason for adding more (Dylan Laube and Jordan Mason) was because I knew I would be able to put a couple of my players on IR and felt good about my chances of adding a couple of my late-round receivers off waivers.

Total spent at RB: $76

 Wide Receivers
My $ Hud $ FPos Player Team Age SSI
51 51 WR1 Tyreek Hill MIA 30 9.2
50 53 WR2 CeeDee Lamb DAL 25 8.9
46 39 WR3 Garrett Wilson NYJ 24 7.1
45 50 WR4 Amon-Ra St. Brown DET 24 6.6
44 41 WR5 A.J. Brown PHI 27 6.4
43 49 WR6 Ja'Marr Chase CIN 24 6.3
41 40 WR7 Justin Jefferson MIN 25 6.2
39 30 WR8 Cooper Kupp LAR 31 4.9
38 35 WR9 Puka Nacua LAR 23 4.3
37 33 WR10 Davante Adams LV 31 3.9
35 32 WR11 Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI 22 3.5
33 34 WR12 Drake London ATL 23 3.1
32 30 WR13 Jaylen Waddle MIA 25 3.1
32 23 WR14 DeVonta Smith PHI 25 3.1
31 36 WR15 DK Metcalf SEA 26 3.0
30 26 WR16 D.J. Moore CHI 27 2.9
29 26 WR17 Malik Nabers NYG 21 2.9
27 31 WR18 Chris Olave NO 24 2.9
26 11 WR19 Terry McLaurin WAS 28 2.7
26 25 WR20 Nico Collins HOU 25 2.7
25 26 WR21 Stefon Diggs HOU 30 2.7
25 20 WR22 Amari Cooper CLE 30 2.5
23 28 WR23 Mike Evans TB 31 2.3
23 11 WR24 Chris Godwin TB 28 2.3
23 13 WR25 Calvin Ridley TEN 29 2.3
22 9 WR26 Diontae Johnson CAR 28 2.2
22 33 WR27 Deebo Samuel SF 28 2.2
22 25 WR28 Michael Pittman Jr. IND 26 2.2
22 22 WR29 Brandon Aiyuk SF 26 2.2
22 14 WR30 Rashee Rice KC 24 2.2
21 13 WR31 George Pickens PIT 23 2.1
20 17 WR32 Tee Higgins CIN 25 2.0
18 18 WR33 Zay Flowers BAL 23 1.8
18 11 WR34 Christian Kirk JAC 27 1.8
16 5 WR35 Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA 22 0.7
15 6 WR36 DeAndre Hopkins TEN 32 0.6
15 9 WR37 Keenan Allen CHI 32 0.3
15 13 WR38 Tank Dell HOU 24 0.2
14 11 WR39 Jayden Reed GB 24 0.1
14 3 WR40 Marquise Brown KC 27 0.0
13 2 WR41 Josh Downs IND 23 -0.1
12 3 WR42 Rome Odunze CHI 22 -0.4
12 7 WR43 Brian Thomas Jr. JAC 21 -0.6
12 10 WR44 Christian Watson GB 25 -0.8
10 5 WR45 Courtland Sutton DEN 28 -1.0
10 4 WR46 Rashid Shaheed NO 25 -1.0
9 2 WR47 Darnell Mooney ATL 26 -1.1
9 9 WR48 Ladd McConkey LAC 22 -1.4
8 1 WR49 Brandin Cooks DAL 30 -1.5
6 2 WR50 Tyler Lockett SEA 31 -1.9
6 2 WR51 Demario Douglas NE 23 -1.9
5 9 WR52 Khalil Shakir BUF 24 -2.0
5 2 WR53 Jerry Jeudy CLE 25 -2.1
5 6 WR54 Jakobi Meyers LV 27 -2.1
6 5 WR55 Curtis Samuel BUF 28 -2.2
5 12 WR56 Jameson Williams DET 23 -2.2
5 3 WR57 Jordan Addison MIN 22 -2.3
4 3 WR58 Joshua Palmer LAC 24 -2.4
4  - WR59 Demarcus Robinson LAR 29 -2.5
4 1 WR60 Jahan Dotson PHI 24 -2.6
4 2 WR61 Adam Thielen CAR 34 -2.8
4 1 WR62 Rashod Bateman BAL 24 -3.1
4 6 WR63 Romeo Doubs GB 24 -3.1
3  - WR64 Andrei Iosivas CIN 24 -3.4
3 10 WR65 Xavier Worthy KC 21 -3.8
3 3 WR66 Dontayvion Wicks GB 23 -4.0
3 2 WR67 Xavier Legette CAR 23 -4.4
2  - WR68 Josh Reynolds DEN 29 -4.6
2  - WR69 Jalen McMillan TB 22 -4.6
2 1 WR70 Mike Williams NYJ 29 -5.1
2 1 WR71 Michael Wilson ARI 24 -5.2
2 2 WR72 Wan'Dale Robinson NYG 23 -5.2
1  - WR73 Jalin Hyatt NYG 22 -5.3
1 1 WR74 Gabe Davis JAC 25 -5.4
1 1 WR75 Quentin Johnston LAC 22 -5.5
1  - WR76 Greg Dortch ARI 26 -5.3
1 1 WR77 Ja'Lynn Polk NE 22 -5.5
1 1 WR78 Adonai Mitchell IND 21 -5.7
1 1 WR79 Tyler Boyd TEN 29 -5.8
1  - WR80 Cedric Tillman CLE 24 -5.8
1  - WR81 Jalen Tolbert DAL 25 -6.4
1 2 WR82 Marvin Mims Jr. DEN 22 -6.5
1  - WR83 Darius Slayton NYG 27 -6.8
1  - WR84 Luke McCaffrey WAS 23 -7.0
1 1 WR85 Jermaine Burton CIN 23 -7.1
1  - WR86 Javon Baker NE 22 -7.1
1 9 WR87 Keon Coleman BUF 21 -7.2
1 1 Kendrick Bourne NE 29
1 1 Jalen Tolbert DAL 25
1 1 Zay Jones ARI 29
1 1 A.T. Perry NO 24
1 1 Odell Beckham MIA 31
1 1 Troy Franklin DEN 21

Observations: One of my favorite things to do with this article recently has been to record the positional spending at running back and receiver across the league. In 2021, the number at receiver is $961. In 2022, it increased to $1,050. Last year, it was $1,120. This year, the number was $1,141. Assuming every manager spends every dollar possible (one team spent $195 in this one), it means 47.5 percent of the $2,400 auction money available was spent on the position - an average of $95 per team. More receivers are being drafted every year (82 in this draft and 81 last year) and more are coming with high price tags.

In 2021 and 2022, 11 receivers received bids of at least $30. In 2023, that number was 14. This year, it was 16. Over the last three drafts in this league, at least 38 receivers have attracted a bid of at least $10 - the number this year. It was 41 in 2022 and 40 in 2023.

Even though this league - and I would assume most auction leagues nowadays - sinks nearly 45 percent of their budget at receiver, the depth at the position has become so good that almost every manager can get big-time value if they remain patient. Calvin Ridley ($13) is poised to play the Ja'Marr Chase role in Tennessee this year. I do not care what happened last year; Jacksonville did not utilize him well and he still finished as a top 20 receiver. He is mispriced as a WR3. Chris Godwin ($11) is set to return to his home in the slot - a position he thrived in a few years ago. Baker Mayfield may not be Tom Brady, but new OC Liam Coen has a history of leaning heavily on his slot. Godwin is as good of a bet as any player in my yellow tier to live up to and/or exceed his draft cost. Terry McLaurin ($11) is poised to have his best year yet with the best quarterback he has played with in Washington, yet he is being priced for his WR32 finish last season. While Diontae Johnson ($9) seems to be the favorite sleeper pick of many and could push for 90 or more catches, I was able to secure him as my regular flex option for less than $10 about halfway through the draft.

As an aside, I continue to be confounded by the notion that Xavier Worthy ($10) is going to be more of a fantasy factor this year than Marquise Brown ($3). Not only does Worthy go before Brown now in every draft I have been a part of lately, but I am shocked by the separation between the two. At worst, I think the two end up splitting snaps late in the season. At best, Brown proves what he has already proven at two different stops: he is more than capable of being a team's primary receiver when healthy. That means a lot when the receiver plays in the same offense as Patrick Mahomes.

Strategy: Year after year, there is one team in this league that drops an inordinate amount of money at receiver and tries to piece it together everywhere else. This year, this team spent $148 at the position, highlighted by his winning auctions for CeeDee Lamb ($53), Tyreek Hill ($51) and Nico Collins ($25). Last season, this same manager paid around $130 for receivers. There is something to be said about any manager who has enough confidence in his ability to hit on enough late-round picks or work the waiver wire to address likely shortcomings at four or five fantasy positions (QB1, maybe RB1, RB2, TE and occasionally FLEX). With that said, there is a strong chance one of the managers in your auction league will employ a similar strategy, so be prepared to pivot to another top-seven option at receiver if your auction plan depends somewhat on landing one. (I recommend getting at least one elite option, but I do not think it is necessary if you can get two high-end WR2s.)

There are around 40 receivers I would be comfortable starting most weeks and probably another 10 who do not need to do much to earn my trust. I would argue that managers should try to grab one of the top seven wideouts above, add another receiver inside my top 18 and settle for the two best values they can find after that (preferably no more than $12-13 on either one). In my opinion, the green tier above is full of rock-solid WR1s and the blue tier is full of rock-solid WR2s. The yellow tier is essentially a group of almost 20 players that should be considered WR3s but will probably dabble with WR1 production from time to time. That is how deep the middle class of receivers has become. DeAndre Hopkins ($6), Rome Odunze ($3) and Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($5) are perfect examples of how deep the position is. All three should be serviceable WR3s at some point. Value will fall into your lap at this position if you are patient enough.

The beauty of this year's drafts - especially in auctions - is that there are enough options at receiver to grab four reasonably priced options to occupy starting spots and still feel good about taking some swings on players being discounted due to injury, such as Marquise Brown and Josh Downs. Bye weeks do not start until Week 5, which should be more than enough time for Brown (shoulder, chest) and Downs (knee) to heal.

Total spent at WR: $89

 Tight Ends
My $ Hud $ FPos Player Team Age SSI
21 26 TE1 Travis Kelce KC 34 2.1
20 21 TE2 Sam LaPorta DET 23 1.8
18 15 TE3 Kyle Pitts ATL 23 1.3
18 21 TE4 Mark Andrews BAL 28 0.9
16 12 TE5 Evan Engram JAC 29 0.6
15 22 TE9 Dalton Kincaid BUF 24 0.5
14 20 TE6 Trey McBride ARI 24 0.3
13 16 TE7 George Kittle SF 30 0.3
10 7 TE8 Jake Ferguson DAL 25 0.1
9 5 TE10 David Njoku CLE 28 -1.8
8 1 TE11 Pat Freiermuth PIT 25 -1.9
4 5 TE12 Brock Bowers LV 21 -2.6
4 1 TE13 Tyler Conklin NYJ 29 -2.7
4 3 TE14 Dalton Schultz HOU 28 -2.8
4 2 TE15 Dallas Goedert PHI 29 -4.1
2 1 TE16 Noah Fant SEA 26 -4.7
2 1 TE17 Juwan Johnson NO 27 -4.8
2 2 TE18 T.J. Hockenson MIN 27 -4.8
1 1 TE19 Jonnu Smith MIA 29 -5.2
1  - TE20 Taysom Hill NO 34 -5.7
1 2 TE21 Mike Gesicki CIN 28 -5.9
1  - TE22 Colby Parkinson LAR 25 -6.1
1 1 TE23 Isaiah Likely BAL 24 -4.8
1 2 TE24 Cole Kmet CHI 25 -6.4
1 1 TE25 Hunter Henry NE 29 -6.7
1 1 TE26 Chigoziem Okonkwo TEN 24 -7.0
1  - TE27 Cade Otton TB 25 -7.6
1  - TE28 Ben Sinnott WAS 22 -8.0
1 1 TE29 Luke Musgrave GB 23 -8.1
1  - TE30 Michael Mayer LV 23 -8.5
1  - TE31 Greg Dulcich DEN 24 -9.0
1  - TE32 Theo Johnson NYG 23 -9.2
1 1 TE33 Zach Ertz  WAS 33

Observations: Following a year in which Travis Kelce was regularly pushing $40 in auction drafts, he returned to his more normal rate of $26 in this league. I do not recall ever having five tight ends draw bids of at least $20, which understandably reflects what most of us are seeing in snake drafts: the masses believe there are a handful of strong candidates ready to challenge for the overall TE1 throne.

George Kittle ($16) going for four dollars more than Evan Engram ($12) was a bit of a surprise but also understandable. Desperation likely set in during a tight end run that saw Engram, Trey McBride ($20), Brock Bowers ($5), Dalton Kincaid ($22), Mark Andrews ($21) and Kittle put up for bid over the course of eight nominations about halfway through the draft.

There have been mixed opinions on Pat Freiermuth ($1) all summer long, but it is hard to quibble with his price in this draft. He enters the season as the clear second-best option in the passing game in Pittsburgh. That has to mean something, as even the most run-heavy team needs to find players to handle 400-plus targets. (George Pickens probably may not get past 130 and he will almost certainly not push 150.) Tyler Conklin ($1) is in a similar boat as Freiermuth. I may be down on Dallas Goedert ($2) as well this year, but he is a solid bet to post low-end TE1 numbers in at least half of his games this year. That is worth at least two dollars. (For those wondering, Taysom Hill is listed only as a quarterback on MFL, so he was not drafted.)

Strategy: Much as I have advocated at other positions, I have no desire to pay top dollar for any player when I believe at least two or three other options will perform at a similar level at a lower cost. With very few exceptions, I do not enter a draft saying I must have any one player. However, I did enter this one expecting to come away with Kyle Pitts ($15) - so long as he came at a palatable price. As it turned out, only Pitts and Engram came off at a price lower than my valuation - at least among my top eight tight ends. The truth of the matter is I would be happy with any of the eight at the right price.

One of the great things about auctions is what tends to happen at tight end. If there is a middle class of tight ends, it is usually small. Additionally, assuming there is a middle class of tight ends, their price is usually quite reasonable. It can be quite tempting to pass on the bigger names, spend about $12 to pair up low-end TE1 options such as Jake Ferguson ($7) and David Njoku ($5) and use the $4-8 of savings at another position while also solidifying high-end depth at the position. I can even make a strong case for spending $2-3 on T.J. Hockenson if you can use the IR spot on him in your league. I do not expect him to provide much in the way of useful fantasy production for the first two or so months of the season, but I do believe he has a reasonable chance to be a difference-maker by the start of the fantasy playoffs.

Total spent at TE: $15

 Kickers
My $ Hud $ Player Tm Age
1 3 Brandon Aubrey DAL 29
1 2 Justin Tucker BAL 34
1 1 Younghoe Koo ATL 30
1 1 Harrison Butker KC 29
1 - Jake Moody SF 24
1 1 Evan McPherson CIN 25
1 - Daniel Carlson LV 29
1 - Joshua Karty LAR 22
1 1 Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU 30
1 1 Jake Elliott PHI 29
1 1 Matt Gay IND 30
1 1 Cameron Dicker LAC 24
1 - Dustin Hopkins CLE 33
1 - Cairo Santos CHI 32
1 - Tyler Bass BUF 27
1 - Greg Zuerlein NYJ 36
1 1 Jason Sanders MIA  28

Observations/strategy: Year after year, I look for the same qualities in a kicker. I want someone with a strong leg in a good offense. Additionally, I often target kickers who play on teams with good or great defenses since coaches are more apt to settle for field goals when they are confident in their defense. Short of that, I look for a kicker on a team that I believe will have a good offense but will bog down in the red zone because it lacks a strong running attack. We found out shortly before the start of the draft that we would not be required to draft a kicker or D/ST this year, so I decided to take advantage of it by adding another position player. I felt confident at least one or two of my top 12 kickers would go undrafted. It turned out three of them did, so I will likely choose between Jake Moody, Daniel Carlson and Joshua Karty in a couple of weeks once waivers ends in this league.

Total spent at K: $0

 Defense / ST
My $ Hud $ Team
1 2 Jets
1 1 Bears
1  - Falcons
1 2 Browns
1 2 49ers
1 1 Texans
1 2 Eagles
1 2 Ravens
1 1 Cowboys
1  - Lions
1 1 Steelers
1  - Raiders
1 1 Colts
1 1 Saints

Observations/strategy: Conventional wisdom says no one should spend more than one dollar on defense. In previous years, I have generally advocated spending an extra dollar to get one you love - assuming such an option exists. Last year, I felt very good about the Cowboys' D/ST and it paid off nicely for a large part of the season. I would not say I have that kind of feeling about any D/ST this year. With that said, the Bears' D/ST played exceptionally well once DE Montez Sweat joined the fray around midseason. Chicago likely only improved its talent on that side of the ball during the offseason, so I feel good the Bears can pick up defensively where they left off at the end of last year.

Total spent at D/ST: $1

Post-draft

The FFToday team

QB: Anthony Richardson, Justin Fields

RB: Saquon Barkley, James Conner, Jonathon Brooks, Tyjae Spears, Braelon Allen, Tank Bigsby, Dylan Laube, Jordan Mason

WR: Marvin Harrison Jr., Cooper Kupp, Calvin Ridley, Diontae Johnson, Marquise Brown, Demario Douglas

TE: Kyle Pitts

K: N/A

D/ST: Bears

I like this team a lot. It has been a long time since I exited an auction with at least four likely starters at running back AND at receiver in this league. Never mind the fact I landed my dark horse overall QB1 and TE1 choices. If HC Shane Steichen unleashes Richardson as I believe he will, I think 800-plus rushing yards and 10-plus rushing touchdowns are a strong possibility. As far as Pitts is concerned, I made the case for him in my final summation of the PPR Big Board earlier this week: T.J. Hockenson amassed 113 catches on 154 targets for 997 yards and six touchdowns in 18 games with Kirk Cousins. Pitts is arguably the most athletic tight end in league history, so I don't think it is asking too much to expect Cousins to lean on him at a similar rate. Think about that: not only will Pitts be healthy for the first time since the middle part of the 2022 season, but he will also be playing with the best quarterback he has played with in his career.

As optimistic as I am about both positions, I acknowledge quarterback and tight end are my biggest question marks - if only because Richardson is unproven and Pitts has disappointed fantasy managers in consecutive seasons. My biggest weakness may be the amount of injury risk I decided to take on with Conner and Brooks (and Richardson, for that matter). The thing with Conner is that he is being devalued mostly because every conversation about him seems to start with him missing three or four games every year. It is a fair point, but a high percentage of featured backs are going to miss at least one or two. When he plays, he usually flirts with RB1 production. I believe that the Eagles intend to see if Barkley can be their version of Christian McCaffrey. I recognize Barkley will not match CMC's receiving numbers, but it makes sense to me why Philadelphia signed him: reduce the team's reliance on the "Brotherly Shove" in the post-Jason Kelce era and increase the efficiency of the rushing attack as a whole. Brooks was a luxury pick I do not expect to contribute to my team until November. Spears ($9) is oddly undervalued considering he should be on near-equal footing as teammate Tony Pollard ($19). Allen may quickly become a top-five handcuff, while Bigsby appears to be meeting the expectations many had for him as a rookie in 2023.

With that said, I believe the strength of my team is at receiver. Harrison, Ridley and Johnson will be considered the alpha receivers on their respective teams. Kupp might still be that in Los Angeles, although I expect him and Puka Nacua to be more of a 1A/1B combo. Either way, I landed four of my top 26 receivers, including two potential WR1s in Harrison and Kupp. I intend to add at least one more receiver and a kicker with my two open spots - courtesy of Brooks and Brown being IR-eligible - to round things out. I think this is a playoff team even if Richardson and Pitts fall flat on their faces and a potentially dominant fantasy team if both players meet my expectations.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.






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