Personnel has a large say in what areas of the field quarterbacks throw the ball. However, being able to identify how often they throw into a certain range over a two-year period should give us an idea of what players - be it running backs, receivers and tight ends - stand to benefit the most.

As a follow-up to my quarterback depth of throws piece from two weeks ago and a conclusion to last week's AFC pass-catcher target piece, I will focus my energy this week on what some of that data means for the NFC pass-catchers attached to them for the 2023 season.

As noted last week, this is more of an experimental and exploratory piece designed to get readers more familiar with how quarterbacks and the pass-catchers attached to them get their yards. There are enough year-to-year changes in personnel and offensive leadership that an analysis like this has its limits. However, it does not mean that we cannot learn something from it and use it for our benefit in fantasy.

Key:

BLOS - Behind the line of scrimmage
Short - 0-9 yards
Medium - 10-19 yards
Deep - 20+ yards

Notes: The cutoff for the pass-catcher targets above was 30 in a single season. In addition, QB depth of targets are listed in BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep order. The stats listed to the right of the team are for the quarterbacks' BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep breakdown over the last two seasons. Running backs will not receive much discussion this week because the overwhelming majority of them are targeted almost exclusively behind the line of scrimmage or in the 0-9 yard range.

Cardinals (Kyler Murray)

Whom it affects: Honestly? No one in this passing game should be expected to prosper due to the change of leadership change in Arizona. An overall volume reduction is rarely ever a good thing for fantasy managers. Marquise Brown is more of a vertical threat who will likely be asked to absorb more abuse on short and medium routes. Nearly 50 percent of Rondale Moore's routes were short in 2022 (up from 30 percent in 2021). Given his combination of age and the fact he is coming off a serious injury, we may not see the same Zach Ertz (knee) again. Trey McBride will likely take a second-year leap, but that figures to be more of a product of his natural growth than a scheme change. The one player from this group that should be a good fit in the new scheme is rookie Michael Wilson, who is the only Cardinal that possesses the kind of size (6-2, 210) that usually lends itself to success in a more traditional offense.

Falcons (Desmond Ridder)

Whom it affects: Let's not go crazy over a four-game sample, especially one during which Atlanta did not have Kyle Pitts available. Perhaps the best news from the sample is that HC Arthur Smith focused on the short and medium throws (66.1 percent combined) with Drake London as the only legitimate option available to Ridder. Especially with Pitts expected to be fully healthy again, expect the deep throws to increase a few percentage points. The 19.1 BLOS and 26.1 medium throw percentages are very high by today's standards and are mostly likely a product of the small sample size. Expect a 6-8 percent dip on those throws and a near 10 percent increase in the short throws. In other words, there is not much to read into here. Fantasy managers can hope that more Ridder means slightly better accuracy than what Marcus Mariota provided. That by itself should mean better things for the passing game as a whole.

Panthers (Bryce Young)

Rookie - No data

Bears (Justin Fields)

Whom it affects: The addition of D.J. Moore will shake up this offense in a very positive way, and it seems logical that OC Luke Getsy will focus Moore's usage on what worked for the receiver in Carolina. Moore is recognized as one of the league's best run-after-catch receivers, so it makes sense that he will return to the days of getting 76.2 percent or more of his targets in the short and medium areas (as he did in 2021) as opposed to the 60.6-percent range from last year. Darnell Mooney's best trait may be his speed, so it would be surprising if he does not come close to repeating last year's usage in the medium and deep areas (51.8 percent combined). Justin Fields is very much on the high end in terms of deep attempts through his first 27 games, meaning Mooney (and Chase Claypool, to a lesser extent) should stay busy. With Moore around to dominate short and medium targets, Cole Kmet could feel the pinch this season.

Cowboys (Dak Prescott)

Whom it affects: Just as Dallas built up its personnel to the point where it could execute Kellen Moore's vision of a wide-open passing attack, the Cowboys moved on from him and brought in a conservative play-caller in Brian Schottenheimer. HC Mike McCarthy, who will call plays, is cut from the same conservative cloth, meaning very little can be taken for granted outside of the likelihood that CeeDee Lamb will still be featured. Dallas' vision is probably to recreate some version of the 2021 passing game, likely with an eye on Brandin Cooks assuming Amari Cooper's role and Gallup reclaiming the role he had before his ACL tear. For what it is worth, McCarthy told reporters this spring that Gallup will likely run a more varied route tree in 2023 after running too many go routes last season. Interestingly, his deep targets in 2022 fell by almost nine percent from 2021. However, the likely explanation for that is that Gallup was not creating enough separation or doing enough to earn the trust of Prescott on deep throws. There is a world in which presumed new starting TE Jake Ferguson inherits the high-percentage targets Dalton Schultz leaves behind (at least 86 percent of Schultz's targets were in the short and medium range over the last two seasons). There is also a world in which Lamb and Tony Pollard pick up a chunk of those pass attempts and no Dallas tight end steps up for fantasy purposes.

Lions (Jared Goff)

Whom it affects: Hopefully, fantasy managers have learned their lesson by now to stop doubting Amon-Ra St. Brown. Considering the strengths of his game and Goff's limitations, the fact that St. Brown has run more than 80 percent of his routes in the short and medium areas of the field bodes well for his chances to remain a fantasy force. With that said, his overall production could take a slight hit in 2023 as (a hopefully healthy) Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams enter the picture. While it is possible Gibbs does nothing more than handle the same BLOS and short percentages of D'Andre Swift, Detroit did not draft Williams merely to stretch the field (which is largely what Josh Reynolds did over the last two seasons and D.J. Chark did in 2022). Williams will steal short and medium targets from St. Brown, as will rookie TE Sam LaPorta. The good news is that Goff has thrown behind the line of scrimmage, short or medium more than 80 percent of the time since becoming a Lion. LaPorta is also a consideration, but it seems unlikely he will see more action than T.J. Hockenson did in 2021 or before his trade to Minnesota last year (six-plus target average over seven games).

Packers (Jordan Love)

Whom it affects: Love has attempted a mere 83 passes in three NFL seasons. Green Bay lost its most productive receiver from last season to boot (Allen Lazard), so there is not much use reading into what it means for Love & Co. The former first-round pick has been a bit heavy on medium-range throws in his limited action, for what it is worth. Christian Watson was ridiculously balanced across the four ranges in the chart above, seeing exactly 27.7 percent of his targets in the medium AND deep portions of the field. With that said, Love had a strong connection with Romeo Doubs last preseason and reportedly leaned on him during spring workouts as well.

Rams (Matthew Stafford)

Whom it affects: Cooper Kupp will attract targets regardless of where he lines up or runs his routes, but the Rams almost certainly do not want to see a repeat of him catching nearly a quarter of his targets behind the line of scrimmage again (24.5 percent in 2022). As long as Stafford is under center, Kupp is a near lock to dominate targets (10.8 targets per game across 30 contests over the last two years). End of story. An even more extreme example of what happened to the Rams last season can be summed up by Tyler Higbee's BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep splits: 92.3 percent of his targets came within nine yards of the line of scrimmage. That is an insane number for a player with over 100 targets and tells a story about how much pressure Stafford was facing week in and week out. With even slightly better injury luck on the offensive line, expect Higbee's splits to resemble the ones he posted in 2021. Van Jefferson is expected to start opposite Kupp and stretch the field, but it should come as no shock if rookie Puka Nacua ends up becoming Stafford's second-favorite option at receiver. He reminds some team personnel of a young Robert Woods.

Vikings (Kirk Cousins)

Whom it affects: One common trait that the elite receivers above seem to share is a BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep distribution where all four percentages are over 10 percent. Justin Jefferson is an elite receiver to anyone who watches football, but his distribution over each of his last two seasons is further proof he can win at every level. His place in this offense is obviously secure. The most pressing question regarding Minnesota's passing attack in 2023 is if rookie Jordan Addison can earn the 107 targets left behind by Adam Thielen. Since neither receiver is a speed merchant and both rely so heavily on their route-running, it makes sense Addison will come close to copying Thielen's BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep distribution from last season - especially the part where 86 percent of his targets came in the short and medium areas. K.J. Osborn may be coming off one of the quieter 88-target seasons in recent memory. The Vikings used him much more often at all levels in 2022 than in 2021, suggesting his star could be ascending. Three out of every five targets (60.9 percent) T.J. Hockenson saw in 11 games as a Viking - including the playoffs - came in the 0-9 yard range. With all three aforementioned Minnesota receivers able to work the medium part of the field - and Jefferson and Osborn capable of winning deep - Hockenson will likely remain a short-area target. The encouraging thing regarding Hockenson is that Minnesota relies so heavily on the passing game now under HC Kevin O'Connell, which means he should not struggle to attract eight-plus targets per game again in 2023.

Saints (Derek Carr)

Whom it affects: Even if the league suspends Alvin Kamara for 4-6 games as most expect, the Saints boast one of the more loaded supporting casts in the league. As we saw with Carr and Davante Adams last season, the former had no problem getting his star receiver the ball 20-plus yards down the field. Expect Olave's involvement in the deep passing game (23.7 percent of his targets came there as a rookie) to continue and maybe even increase depending on the health of Michael Thomas, who will do the bulk of his work in the short and medium areas. One potential fly in the ointment for New Orleans this year is if it fails to pick up its pace of play (33.04 seconds per play in situation-neutral situations - the fourth-slowest mark in the league in 2022). A move into the top 10 (about 30.5 seconds) would be a wonderful development. Juwan Johnson noted this spring that he spent a significant amount of time studying Julian Edelman's routes and route-running, suggesting he has been led to believe that he will be working out of the slot a lot and running a high number of choice routes. (Kamara used to run a lot of choice routes with Drew Brees under center.) Considering his history as a former receiver, it is hard not to read what he is saying and envision Carr viewing him as a poor man's version of Darren Waller.

Giants (Daniel Jones)

Whom it affects: As stated in the intro, sometimes (or often) personnel dictates where quarterbacks throw the ball. In Jones' case, it seems clear that two very different coaching staffs agreed they did not want him throwing deep. To that end, New York loaded up on slot types at receiver this offseason, adding Parris Campbell and Cole Beasley to a group that already has Sterling Shepherd and Wan'Dale Robinson. The odds that any of those four see more than 30 percent of their targets in the 10-19 yard range or 10 percent in the 20-plus range are long. Therefore, Darren Waller, Isaiah Hodgins and Darius Slayton should get the lion's share of medium-range targets and the relatively small deep-ball share Jones offers. Waller is a near lock to lead this team in targets if he can stay out of the trainer's room, so expect HC Brian Daboll to scheme up an attack that features more medium-range pass attempts than at any point in Jones' career (he has only topped 20 percent once in his career). Slayton's deep-ball reliance makes him a poor fit, which should allow Hodgins to stand out whenever Waller is not the primary read.

Eagles (Jalen Hurts)

Whom it affects: Outside of slight tweaks that naturally happen with teams every year, the Eagles should strive to repeat what they did with and for their top three passing-game options last season. The overriding theme of the 2022 Philadelphia passing game was balance. The 2022 BLOS/Short/Medium/Deep splits of A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith were a thing of beauty. That is especially the case for Smith, who saw as many BLOS targets as deep targets (25). The aforementioned balance even carried over to Dallas Goedert, who exceeded a 20-percent rate in three of the four areas of the field. As encouraging as the splits and overall target numbers are for all three, there is room for growth considering Hurts threw 126 fewer times in the second half of games last year (167 attempts) than he did in the first half (293). If Philadelphia faces even slightly more resistance from opponents this season (and Goedert plays every game this year), all three could blow right past their 2022 production - which is a scary thought.

Seahawks (Geno Smith)

Whom it affects: While Smith excelled as a deep-ball thrower last season, it was probably Smith and the offense's emphasis and efficiency on 10-19 yard targets that led to such a breakthrough season for the Seahawks' passing attack. Tyler Lockett's greatness can be illustrated in any number of ways, but his 50-percent catch rate on deep targets in back-to-back seasons - especially in 2021 when 37.9 percent of his targets were 20-plus yards - drives the point home. Increasing DK Metcalf's medium targets at the expense of his deep targets did not help his touchdown production (career-low six) or yards per reception average (career-low 11.6), but he made up for it with a career-high 152 targets and 90 catches. He also posted the second-best yardage total of his career (1,048). With Lockett largely the primary short and deep target and Metcalf the primary medium target, it makes sense that rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba will battle Lockett more than Metcalf for Smith's attention in the 0-9 yard range. (Smith-Njigba can stretch the field, but he is not in Lockett's class in that regard.) JSN could eventually render the tight ends in this offense virtually useless, but the tight end position can afford to give away a few targets after drawing 136 during the regular season.

49ers (Brock Purdy)

Buccaneers (Baker Mayfield)

Whom it affects: Much like San Francisco, it serves little purpose to focus on Mayfield and more on the receivers' recent history. Not that it comes as much of a surprise, but former OC Byron Leftwich clearly felt Mike Evans does his best work 10-plus yards down the field (combined medium and deep target rate of at least 55 percent in each of the last two seasons). Meanwhile, Chris Godwin handled most of the shorter stuff, as at least 62 percent of his targets were of the BLOS or short variety in both seasons. As Tampa Bay's offensive line began to crumble last season, Godwin became the primary option out of necessity (when Brady was not checking it down to the running backs). New OC Dave Canales wants to change the distribution, as he hinted during the summer that Evans in particular would run more short and medium routes in his offense. Seeing as how Canales was one of the men who oversaw the shocking season Seattle had under Geno Smith, it is not unthinkable that more of an emphasis on the short and medium passing attack - as we discussed earlier with Seattle - with two stud receivers allow Mayfield to have one of his better seasons as a pro.

Commanders (Sam Howell)

Limited data - Howell's first (and only) NFL action came in Week 18 last season.