Or anything better than you selecting an obscure running back late in the draft and realizing he’s getting significant playing time and can really play?

Let’s try and answer these questions before the season begins.

The first thing I researched was the results from last season. The rushing attempt numbers are below. But what I realized was that most of these teams had big changes to their roster or coaching staff, so that looking at last year’s numbers meant almost nothing unless the running back room or coach’s room remained stable. So I will only refer to them if those two factors remained the same.

Workhorse (62% of the rushing workload or more)

Derrick Henry, BAL – Henry saw over 71% of the workload in Tennessee even at his “advanced” age (29) but he was brought in to replace two backs – J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards. Explosive Keaton Mitchell is not expected to be available early in the season, so Henry should continue to be very productive although there are significant changes on the Ravens offensive line.

Josh Jacobs, Green Bay – It’s the dawning of a new day for the Packers where Aaron Jones is gone and AJ Dillon is out for the season. Jacobs had been a workhorse back for the Raiders the past five seasons (averaged 261 rushing attempts) and that should continue in Green Bay. MarShawn Lloyd is the new rookie backup (USC), but as long as Jacobs is healthy he is getting a huge amount of work.

Joe Mixon, HOU – Mixon was a workhorse in Cincinnati for seven years and brings his talent to the up and coming Texans for 2024. Previous starter Devin Singletary has gone to the bright lights of New York and a once exciting rookie, who flashed in 2022, Dameon Pierce, no longer excites us, so Mixon should continue his workhorse ways.

Jonathan Taylor, IND – Like Henry, Taylor is the very definition of a workhorse running back. There is no threat from his backups and the only question is whether quarterback Anthony Richardson will steal too many red zone rushing attempts. I suspect, “ARich” will tone down his running now that he has his All-Pro behind him, which wasn’t the case in early 2023.

Travis Etienne, JAX – Etienne saw 70 more touches in 2023 than in his rookie season when he touched it 255 times. He wasn’t as effective running, but was much better at putting the ball in the end zone (11 rushing touchdowns). Tank Bigsby and his 2.6 ypc were so disappointing that he’s no longer a threat and neither is D’Ernest Johnson, who had some good games with Cleveland in the past.

Isiah Pacheco, KC – The hard-running Pacheco has earned his spot on the workhorse list and even with the last minute addition of Samaje Perine, won’t lose his spot. Clyde Edwards-Helaire (IR) never panned out and Jerrick McKinnon is gone. The only thing holding Pacheco down will be Andy Reid’s liking to give the ball to the best player in the league (Patrick Mahomes) as often as possible. Who wouldn’t?

Kyren Williams, LAR – Williams exploded onto the scene in 2023 and helped many fantasy owners win their championship (248-1,165-10). But he’s had injuries in the past and Head Coach Sean McVay strangely said he’s adding punt return duties to his workload. I’d make sure I had rookie Blake Corum on my roster.

Breece Hall, NYJ – He was a fantasy star in 2023, averaging 17 FPts/G with high volume in the passing game (76-591-4). That was on a team with no quarterback. Aaron Rodgers returns from his Achilles injury and we don’t know how the offense will be divided up. Rodgers will certain throw downfield more than Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle, but how that will affect Hall’s fantasy value is yet to be determined. I suspect both Hall and Garrett Wilson will be featured in this offense no matter what.

Christian McCaffrey, SF – He’s the best back in the league and as long as he’s healthy, which he has been the last two season, he’ll stay at the top.

Workhorse Mirages

James Conner, ARI – If Conner stays healthy, he’s a workhorse, but that hasn’t been the case the past few seasons. Conner averaged 16 rushing attempts per game last season. His primary backup is a rookie, Trey Benson, which usually means he has to earn his coach’s trust in pass protection before he gets a significant role.

Bijan Robinson, ATL – We all want Robinson to be a workhorse, but there is no evidence, at this point, that backup Tyler Allgeier’s role will be significantly reduced from last season when he rushed 186 times. Both backs may see a slight reduction in rushing attempts with improved quarterback play from Kirk Cousins and Bijan is the much better receiving back.

James Cook, BUF – Cook saw 62% of the workload last season, but his backup Latavius Murray wasn’t much of a threat to his job. This preseason, rookie Ray Davis (fourth-round selection from Kentucky) has shown a similar skill set to Cook and may see more than the 86 touches Murray had in 2023. Cook may end up slightly under the 62% threshold.

Jerome Ford, Nick Chubb, CLE – The Browns backfield should be a “tale of two seasons.” With Chubb sidelined early on, Ford should be the early season workhorse after producing 11 double-digit fantasy games in 2023. Then, when Chubb returns, he’ll likely be the workhorse with Ford as a low-end, bye-week option.

Javonte Williams, DEN – Williams is now two years removed from his knee injury and after a mediocre season in 2023, in which he still saw 217 rushing attempts, “should” earn workhorse status in 2024. Jaleel McLaughlin shouldn’t be more than a change-up back and Audric Estime will fill in here and there. But we won’t know for sure until we see it on the field.

Zamir White, LV – We all hope White can fill the Jacobs role, but he’s still an unproven produce with just 121 rushing attempts for his “career.” The Raiders added Alexander Mattison to be his primary backup, who showed flashes in Minnesota, but when given a chance to star in 2023, came up short. The Raiders will need White to produce given their quarterback situation, so there is every chance he becomes a solid fantasy option.

Aaron Jones, MIN – Jones could certainly be a productive workhorse if he stays healthy, but we didn’t see that last season. Jones has never averaged less than 4.6 ypc and he’s also very good in the passing game. But in an effort to keep him upright, the Vikings will likely use Ty Chandler more than Jones’ fantasy owners would like to see. I suspect about a 60-40 split.

Rhamondre Stevenson, NE – Stevenson’s production was down in 2023, likely due to the fact the Patriots couldn’t pass the ball, and fantasy owners suffered. He was also less than 100% for a few games and finally Elliott took over down the stretch. Whether Jacoby Brissett or Drake Maye can revive the passing game to balance this offense is a major part as to whether Stevenson can rebound. Antonio Gibson is a quality backup who had some success in Washington and figures to see a significant amount of work, particularly in the passing game.

Alvin Kamara, NO – While Kamara’s rushing game has suffered the last three seasons, his pass-catching ability has not. He returned to form in 2023 catching 75 of 86 targets. There is not much behind Kamara with Kendre Miller on the PUP list and Jamaal Williams a shell of the guy who had 17 rushing touchdowns in 2022 for Detroit. If the Saints can free up Kamara in the running game, he could return to workhorse status.

Devin Singletary, NYG – Being a workhorse on a team with no offense isn’t much of a reward, but he should get a majority of the work with the “great” Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Eric Gray behind him on the depth chart.

Saquon Barkley, PHI – The Eagles didn’t pay Barkley an eight-figure salary to block for Jalen Hurts, though he knows how to pass protect. He’ll get his work in, but I suspect the Eagles will be very careful about overworking Saquon because of his injury history. Kenneth Gainwell will be in for the fourth quarter in every blowout instead of Barkley running up his fantasy totals. The Eagles also have a lot of weapons, so Barkley won’t get the opportunities he had for the Giants.

Kenneth Walker, SEA – Walker, and his fantasy owners, would like him to be a full-on workhorse, but Zach Charbonnet was too effective in his backup role to lose many of his snaps. Still, when healthy, Walker is much more explosive and is the touchdown maker of the two backs.

Rachaad White, TB – White was a workhorse in 2023 with 272 rushing attempts and 64 receptions. Unfortunately, he wasn’t very effecting on the ground - averaging just 3.6 ypc. The Bucs drafted Bucky Irving, who has a similar skill set as White and they likely hope he can be the better runner and allow White to excel in the passing game. Beware of overvaluing last year’s statistics because the team relied on him last year due to having no other worthy options (Chase Edmonds, Ke’Shawn Vaughn or Sean Tucker).

Running Back By Committee

Jonathon Brooks, Carolina – Brooks will start the season on the PUP list leaving Chuba Hubbard and Miles Sanders to pick up the slack. Hubbard saw 238 rushing attempts in 2023, but did very little with the opportunity averaged 3.8 ypc. Brooks was the first running back drafted in April, should end the season as the starter and could be a nice stash for the fantasy playoffs.

D’Andre Swift, Chicago – Swift should get the biggest slice of the pie, but both Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson averaged more than 4.3 ypc last season and this should be a full-blown three-man RBBC.

Zack Moss, Chase Brown, Cincinnati – Moss did everything the Colts asked him to do last season to fill in for Jonathan Taylor until he returned from injury. In fact, he was the No.1 fantasy running back through four weeks. But the return of Taylor ended Moss’ fantasy value in the second half of the season. He’s the starter for the Bengals in 2024, but it appears that Chase Brown will get as much as 40% of the workload. It’s a solid two-man RBBC which is certainly better than in Chicago, but still limiting Moss’ fantasy value.

Ezekiel Elliott, DAK – I’m not sure why Jerry Jones brought Zeke back to Dallas, except that he’s always been a favorite son. But Elliott hasn’t averaged 4.0 ypc since 2021, producing just 3.5 ypc for the Patriots in 2023. Rico Dowdle was set to get a significant amount of work, but at the last minute Jones added Dalvin Cook to the running back room. If this was 2019, that would be a great room, but its 2024 and it’s likely to be a mess.

Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery DET – People want Gibbs, who was drafted 12th overall in 2023, to become a Marshall Faulk-type back, but that won’t happen as long as the Lions’ “other” back, David Montgomery is so effective. This may be a two-man RBBC, but both are high-quality fantasy options after finishing eighth and 16th in FPts/G last year.

Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins LAC – Edwards and former Ravens’ teammate J.K. Dobbins both headed west for 2024, landing in Los Angeles to lead the Chargers’ running game. Unfortunately, even with a run-centric head coach, they may not be as productive behind this OL as they were in Baltimore. Neither will be a big help in the passing game, so question marks abound here.

De’Von Achane, Raheem Mostert, MIA – Like the duo in Detroit, both Mostert and Achane were very productive in 2023. Mostert is set for regression after producing 21 touchdowns in 2023 and Achane likely can’t keep up his 7.8 ypc from a season ago, but both should still be valuable with defenses scared to death of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle going deep.

Najee Harris, Jaylen Warren, PIT – Najee Harris saw a bigger share of the opportunities, but Warren was the more explosive of the two backs in 2023 and I suspect we will see more of the same in 2024. And as a wildcard, new OC Arthur Smith brought his “Swiss Army Knife,” Cordarrelle Patterson, with him from Atlanta. Barring injury, it’s hard to see anyone claim workhorse status here.

Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears, TEN – Pollard whiffed on his chance to star in Dallas last season producing a career low 4.0 ypc. He’ll be in Tennessee this year, but has more competition from Tyjae Spears than he had with the Cowboys. This figures to be close to a 50-50 split with Pollard slightly more rushing attempts, but Spears more targets.

Brian Robinson Jr., Austin Ekeler, WAS – Robinson is a better runner than pass receiver and Ekeler is a great pass receiver. It appears to be the perfect pairing. But it also means that neither running back is likely to produce top-15 fantasy results and won’t be an RB1. There is nothing wrong with your second back being an RB2.