Context is important in just about every aspect of life. Fantasy football is no different. Much like life, fantasy football rarely presents managers with the same variables day after day or week after week. Truth be told, fantasy managers and analysts are usually limited to statistical production - advanced analytics or the common stats that appear in box scores - as a means to how well a player is (or is not) performing.

One way to bring some level of context into fantasy projections year after year is to analyze splits. Not just basic splits, mind you. It does little good to point out how productive a running back typically is in December because it is highly unlikely that the changing of the calendar is the driving force behind the change. Home/road splits can be helpful at times for predictive purposes, but analysis needs to go much deeper than that to be helpful for managers.

MIA players with and w/o Tua Tagovailoa

Now for the Miami pass-catchers …

Observations: One of the more common and notable splits mentioned in the fantasy world this offseason is what happens to the Dolphins' offense when Tua Tagovailoa is on the field versus when he is hurt. Tagovailoa deals with his fair share of criticism, but the numbers (focus on the numbers in the red) serve as a clear reminder of how much value he brings to the offense over a replacement-level quarterback. Of the 32 red numbers above, only three of them were better with Tua on the sideline.

Achane's rushing production speaks for itself. It is mildly interesting that his yards-per-carry average was significantly higher with Tagovailoa on the field, although I have my doubts that it would continue over a larger sample size. The much more significant impact on Tagovailoa's presence on Achane was in the passing game, as the latter saw nearly three times as many targets with Tua as he did from the trio of Tyler Huntley, Skylar Thompson and Tim Boyle. With Tagovailoa, fantasy managers could count on nearly 10 fantasy points per game from Achane just as a receiver (and not including receiving touchdowns).

Unsurprisingly, Alvin Kamara was the only other running back in the league who came remotely close to that kind of pace (8.7). While not overly important for fantasy purposes, the difference in catch rate is also somewhat striking. A 75-percent catch rate should be the general expectation (or floor) for most running backs, so it speaks to Tagovailoa's ability to make quick decisions and put Achane in a position where he can do something after the catch that Achane's catch rate when the two were together was so high (91.8 percent).

The receiving splits are about what most fantasy managers would expect for Hill, Waddle and Smith. The target, reception and yardage numbers are down because the overall passing game volume dropped without Tua. The touchdown numbers dropped because the offense stunk. The catch rate dropped because the replacement quarterbacks were largely unable to make the quick decisions Tagovailoa makes or throw as accurately as he throws behind Miami's porous offensive line. An underrated yet noteworthy observation is how much difference there was in Hill and Waddle's yards per catch with and without Tagovailoa. Once again, this speaks to Tagovailoa's ability to make quick decisions and put his pass-catchers in a position where they can do something after the catch.

It should not come as a huge surprise that Smith was the player least affected by Tagovailoa's absence since tight ends in most offenses run the most quarterback-friendly routes (short and over the middle of the field). The Dolphins are no exception.

2025 Impact: The difference in the Dolphins' offense with and without Tagovailoa has been well chronicled over the years. It is reasonable to have doubts that Zach Wilson or Quinn Ewers will have much more success than Huntley, Thompson and Boyle did in 2024 or any of the other backup quarterbacks Miami has rostered in the Tagovailoa era. However, there are reasons for slight optimism regarding his supporting cast this year, at least in terms of reducing how much time Tua could miss and the huge disparity in efficiency when he is not on the field.

Without question, the offensive line took a hit when LT Terron Armstead retired. However, I would argue that eliminating interior pressure is more important for a quarterback like Tagovailoa than it is for other quarterbacks. If LG James Daniels and RG Jonah Savaiinaea are what the Dolphins hope they are and C Aaron Brewer can continue to play well, then interior pressure should be less of a concern than it has been recently. Better interior play up front also opens up the run threat for Achane and Jaylen Wright, which was a big part of what was missing with the Dolphins in 2024. A more dynamic running game adds more bite to play-action and slows down the pass rush, which should theoretically allow Hill and Waddle to run deeper routes while maintaining high catch rates.

With regards to how disappointing Waddle was last season, we need to bear in mind that complementary receivers usually suffer the most when quarterbacks miss time. It does not help Waddle's cause that he is consistently battling some kind of injury, but his first-read rate ranked 77th in the league last season (17.7 percent). (In 2023, he ranked 36th at 24.6 percent.) Behind a poor offensive line and on an offense that had an inconsistent-at-best running game, there is almost no time for a quarterback to get to his third read in the progression, so Miami quarterbacks tended to go Hill-Smith or Hill-Achane instead of Hill-Waddle-Smith/Achane. Waddle's fall from grace in 2024 was not caused by Smith's emergence, but rather the combination of several personnel shortcomings as much as anything.

The June 30 trade that sent Smith to the Steelers is an interesting one, but do not make the mistake of assuming 33-year-old Darren Waller will simply take over Smith's 2024 role in the offense. First and foremost, Waller was a seam-stretcher in his prime. Smith has long been a short aDOT player who does his best work after the catch. Secondly, Waller is old in NFL years, did not play at all last year and did not come close to playing a full season in any of his last three pre-retirement seasons. Smith's production was likely to take a hit in 2025 anyway if the offensive line play improved, if only because very little in HC Mike McDaniel's history suggests he wants to rely heavily on a low-aDOT pass-catcher. Waller will pick up some of the 111 targets Smith leaves behind, but the willingness to trade for the former Raider and Giant signals at least a slight belief from the coaching staff that the offensive line will hold up better.

Assuming he can stay healthy, Achane could reasonably push for 100 targets with Smith no longer around to take some of the shorter targets. Hill still feels like a big risk given his age and attitude, but a return to 150-plus targets is a possibility if he keeps his head on straight. Waddle can be considered a bet against a potential Hill blow-up (in which he would have high-end fantasy WR1 upside) or a Waller injury, but the fact of the matter is that Tagovailoa should be better protected and Miami should have a better ground game than it did last year. If any/all of that happens (including what I said about Hill and Waller), then a WR15-20 finish should be well within the realm of possibilities for Waddle.

Chase Brown before and after Zack Moss' season-ending neck injury

Zack Moss played seven weeks before suffering his season-ending neck injury in Week 8. Let's look at how the workload was shared in the Bengals' backfield in the first seven games:

Observations: The stunner in the pre-Moss injury split was Moss being more active than Brown as a pass-catcher. It would have been one thing if Moss entered 2024 with a reputation as being one of the league's best pass-pro backs. (He did not.) It would have been one thing if Moss had even one season in which he was a major contributor as a receiver. (His best season was 27 catches on 37 targets for 192 yards and two touchdowns for the Colts in 2023.) The fact that it took an injury to Moss for Brown to get the work he deserved as a receiver still blows my mind.

For what it is worth, the Bengals seemed to be on the verge of committing to Brown more often at the time of Moss' injury, considering the former held a 37-21 edge in rush attempts in Weeks 5-7. After the injury, Brown was truly the only show in town before Cincinnati started to spoon-feed Khalil Herbert some carries starting in Week 13. In true Bengals' fashion, almost nothing changed in Cincy's backfield after the injury. Brown's 18.9 carries in eight non-Moss games were only 0.5 carries more than the duo averaged before the injury. The difference in rushing yards (79.7-78.9), targets (5.7-5.5), receptions (4.8- 4.7), receiving yards (37.4-31.1) and fantasy points per game (20.9-20.8) were also negligible across the board.

2025 Impact: To what degree this affects the perception of Brown depends on how much of a threat fantasy managers believe Tahj Brooks and/or Samaje Perine are. (Or maybe Moss if he is cleared from the neck injury.) Brooks is a player who probably would have been selected in the third or fourth round of the 2024 NFL Draft but fell to the sixth round of this year's draft due to the depth at the position. He is at least as good now as Moss has ever been. Perine has consistently been lauded for his ability to contribute in most facets of the passing game. Both men - Perine over eight NFL seasons and Brooks in college (obviously) - are considered very good blockers.

I do not think Brown will come close to the 23-plus touches he was averaging after Moss' injury in 2025. Then again, what team expects its top running back to do that? It comes down to answering a couple of questions, in my opinion. Was Perine signed to be a mentor and handle some snaps as a pass protector because the Bengals' line figures to have issues in pass protection? Was Brooks drafted as a clear backup to Brown or because Cincinnati has some lingering doubts about Brown being able to handle 300-plus touches?

My answer to the first question is that I believe Perine will be used almost exclusively on third down and when the Bengals expect a blitz. My answer to the second question is that I think Cincinnati wants to feature Brown. With that said, I think Brooks - even if he handles only 3-4 touches per game - ends up being more of a thorn in the side of Brown than many expect.

Bo Nix/Courtland Sutton 1st half vs. 2nd half of season

Observations: While most of the football-loving world was watching Denver run 35 times for 225 yards and two touchdowns on a Thursday night against the Saints last year, HC Sean Payton saw an opportunity to lean more heavily on his rookie quarterback after he (Nix) just finished his third game with 27 or fewer passing attempts in four weeks. Nix did not attempt fewer than 30 throws again until the Broncos' Week 18 rout of the Chiefs.

In other words, Nix's 32 pass attempts per game from Weeks 1-7 were heavily inflated by the 42 throws he made in a Week 1 loss to the Seahawks. In his next six outings, he averaged 30.3. Over the remainder of the season (Weeks 8-18), he averaged 34.3. I realize that does not sound like a huge deal and it would not have been unless it had been accompanied by at least two other major developments. Nix's catchable throw percentage improved by almost 10 percent to 78.7 percent in Weeks 8-18 while his deep-throw percentage stayed the same (12.5 percent). Nix's TD luck also turned around dramatically, posting a 3.4 TD-to-INT ratio over the final 10 contests.

It is also easy to see one other likely cause-and-effect scenario at play here. While Nix attempted 2.3 more passes per game in Weeks 8-18, it is probably more than a mere coincidence that Sutton's targets increased by 2.1. At the very least, it means there was an obvious push to get Sutton more involved after he did not see a target in Week 7 (25.1 percent target share beginning in Week 8). Although some of the push likely came from Payton, it is also clear that Nix and Sutton were much more in sync after the game against the Saints, as evidenced by the 23.5 percent increase in catch rate. More targets and a higher catch rate from Sutton unsurprisingly led to Sutton being the overall WR11 from Week 8 until the end of the fantasy season (WR48 from Weeks 1-7).

2025 Impact: It is nearly impossible to predict just how much of an effect an improved rushing attack (i.e., J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey) will have on the Denver offense this year and how much it will impact Nix's passing-game volume. Payton needs to find targets for Evan Engram and Dobbins/Harvey since they will command more looks than their predecessors. Payton is no stranger to a high-volume passing attack (Drew Brees attempted at least 40 passes per game nine times during his 15-year career with the Saints), so it would not be shocking if he chooses that route.

One of the problems with that thinking, however, is that the Broncos should have one of the best defenses in the league, so Nix should be expected to throw fewer passes in 2025 than he did as a rookie. Barring unreal positive regression in the touchdown department (last year's 5.1 percent TD rate was good, especially for how slow he started), Nix will probably not be able to repeat last year's QB9 finish.

As far as Sutton is concerned, his 25.1-percent team target share from Weeks 8-18 is also unlikely to be repeated. Engram will earn more targets than the 72 that Denver tight ends recorded a season ago. Marvin Mims will probably see more than 52 looks. The running backs should match or exceed last year's 117 targets at that position. Payton also appears to be smitten with rookie Pat Bryant. There does not appear to be a likely scenario that allows Sutton to see a quarter of the team's targets again in 2025. With that said, there is a decent chance Sutton can beat last year's eight receiving touchdowns as the unquestioned WR1 in a very good offense. Although Sutton is unlikely to finish as a top-15 receiver for a second straight year, it would be a shock if he falls outside the top 25.

Josh Downs with Joe Flacco vs. Anthony Richardson

Observations: Without trying to sound like Captain Obvious, the numbers speak for themselves. Downs' 17-game pace with Flacco would have been 119 catches for 1,103 yards and five touchdowns. (For context, that is roughly what Jaxon Smith-Njigba did last year, plus almost 20 catches.) Downs' 17-game pace with Richardson was 37 catches for 593 yards and five touchdowns. Not much more needs to be said.

One more bit of context needs to be mentioned, however. Flacco averaged 35.4 pass attempts in the seven games he either started or came on in relief of an injured Richardson. By contrast, Richardson averaged 26 pass attempts in the 10 games he started and finished.

2025 Impact: Flacco was hardly a high-level quarterback last year at 39 years old. Despite being inconsistent, however, he was capable. Richardson was not, most of the time. Flacco's catchable throw rate was 11 percent higher than Richardson's (74.6-63.6) and his off-target throw rate was 8.4 percent lower (26.5-18.1).

While I will continue to hold out hope that Richardson's offseason work (with the same biometrics expert that helped Josh Allen improve his mechanical flaws early in his career) pays off, it seems almost a fait accompli that Daniel Jones will be named the starting quarterback during the preseason. Roughly 75 percent of Downs' targets over his first two NFL seasons have come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. Similarly, Jones has not thrown more than 10 percent of his passes more than 20 yards down the field in a season since his rookie year in 2019. (Jones has not targeted the intermediate part of the field - between 10-19 yards - more than 20 percent of the time in any of the last three seasons.) In short, what Downs does well and where Jones likes to throw matches up well.

The threat of TE Tyler Warren stealing some of Downs' short targets is a real one, if only because the rookie should be a tone-setter for an offense that needs a player other than Jonathan Taylor capable of setting a tone. Downs also does not play as much as most might expect (last year's 72.9 percent routes run per team drop-back ranked third on the team and 63rd across the league). Downs does not come without risk in fantasy.

The case for him is simple: his 23.9 percent target share tied George Pickens for the 16th-highest mark in the league, while his 0.3 targets per route run ranked eighth (both ranks based on players who played at least 10 games). He is the No. 1 target in Indy. Warren may steal that title at some point, but it probably will not be this year. Downs has legit high-end WR2 upside when he plays with a competent quarterback, as we saw last season when he posted at least 14.2 fantasy points in five of Flacco's seven starts. Expect more of the same in 2025 with Jones as his quarterback.

The Eagles' offense during and after a 2-2 start

Observations: Philadelphia had the luxury of an early bye in 2024, which gave then-new OC Kellen Moore and HC Nick Sirianni time to re-evaluate what they hoped the offense could become. The Eagles had just completed a stretch in which they scored 21 or fewer points in three straight contests. Part of their issue during the 2-2 start was committing eight turnovers, five of which could be tied to Jalen Hurts (four interceptions and one last fumble). At any rate, Hurts' flaws were being exposed as Philly asked him to throw 33 times per game. It was during the same four-game stretch that he took 13 sacks.

Moore and Sirianni put their heads together during the team's Week 5 bye and began to unleash the beast that led to the team's 12-1 finish to the regular season. Hurts never attempted more than 30 passes again and only threw one more interception. The number of sacks he took per game dropped from 3.3 to 1.9. Of course, we know part of the reason why this happened. Cooper DeJean became a full-time player to help turn around the defense and the offense committed to the ground game, reducing how often the team needed to rely on Hurts' arm.

Saquon Barkley went from a player who averaged 18.3 carries to 22.7 (if we include the Week 17 game in which Hurts was injured early). Barkley's TD rate dropped a bit, but it did not matter at this point because he was averaging 24.5 touches behind arguably the best offensive line in the game.

It is easy to see why Philadelphia's pass-catchers disappointed after September. Hurts averaged around 16 completions for three-plus months and did not need to throw more than that. After giving up 24 points per game before the bye, the Eagles yielded only 16 per game afterward. The big difference - outside of the obvious rushing and passing yardage averages - was the dramatic improvement in scoring. Philadelphia averaged 3.4 TDs from Week 6 (2.5 before) and saw a half-touchdown bump in passing AND rushing scores.

2025 Impact: Moore left to coach the Saints, which led to the Eagles naming Kevin Patullo as the new offensive coordinator after he served as the team's pass game coordinator over the previous four seasons. If we can take TE Dallas Goedert at his word, Patullo appears to want this year's offense to look more like the pre-bye version from 2024. This does not make a ton of sense based on what worked so well last season, but it may need to be what Philadelphia needs to do this year. Why? Barkley is coming off a season in which he handled 482 touches. History tells us that the odds of any back - much less a 28-year-old - coming off such a high-usage season will probably experience a significant dip in production or miss multiple games, if not both. It would behoove Patullo to make sure he has a passing game to fall back on if/when Barkley cannot play.

Projecting this offense to find the middle ground in terms of run-pass balance - maybe 32 passes and 30 runs per game - seems like a bit of a cop-out, but it is probably what Sirianni and Patullo would prefer, even if Barkley plays every game. If that ends up being the case, then the market is probably undervaluing A.J. Brown as the 10th receiver off the board in early drafts and really undervaluing DeVonta Smith as the 26th receiver (especially when he has not finished lower than WR20 on a points-per-game basis in any of the last three years). Similarly, TE15 is probably too low for Goedert and QB5 is probably Hurts' floor if Philadelphia returns to being a team that is willing to throw at least 30 times per game.

Josh Jacobs before and after his touchdown luck turned

Observations: It is remarkable how little difference there is across the board from the time Jacobs was hanging out in fantasy RB2 land versus when he became a fantasy force. The driving force was a big one, however. Touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football and there is probably no better recent example of that in 2024 than Jacobs scoring at least one in 10 of his last 11 outings - including eight straight to close out the regular season - after finding the end zone just once through six contests. While some of that can be attributed to better touchdown luck, the fact of the matter is Green Bay relied much more heavily on him in the red zone after Week 6. He was also put in a better position to score touchdowns after the first six games.

Weeks 1-6: Jacobs handled 15 carries and earned two targets inside the 20. Of those 17 touches (an average of 2.8 per game), only seven came within five yards of the goal line. Another four came from the 10 or closer.

Weeks 7-17: Jacobs handled 43 carries and earned two targets inside the 20. Of those 45 touches (an average of 4.5 per game), 18 came within five yards of the goal line. Another 14 came from the 10 or closer.

Jacobs' 32 carries for 151 yards in Week 2 - a.k.a. the Malik Willis start in which Green Bay called 53 running plays - obviously throws off the Weeks 1-6 numbers a bit as well. With that said, the funny thing about Jacobs' 2024 campaign is that better touchdown luck and a more stubborn effort by HC Matt LaFleur to let him finish drives after Week 6 were about the only things that changed for Jacobs and made him a fantasy stud after a ho-hum start.

2025 Impact: Jordan Love's injuries (knee early, groin later) may have been the push LaFleur needed to lean on Jacobs more heavily near the goal line after Week 6. Jacobs was also helped by the absence of MarShawn Lloyd and a plethora of injuries at receiver. While it is possible he handles something close to the 337 touches he had in his first season as a Packer, do not count on it. Green Bay will undoubtedly want to get a return on Lloyd after a lost rookie season. Furthermore, the Packers spent a first-round pick on WR Matthew Golden and a third-round selection on a Cordarrelle Patterson clone in Savion Williams. LaFleur also learned to trust backups Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks more as last season progressed.

Green Bay should be a good offense again in 2025 and will likely lean heavily on Jacobs near the goal line after he enjoyed the success in that area that he did after Week 6. Thus, I would expect him to score 10-plus touchdowns again. I think it is more unlikely he averages 98.3 total yards and 19.8 touches again, however. Jacobs and the offensive environment are too good for him to fall flat this season, but managers expecting a continuation of what he did from Week 7 on a year ago are bound to be disappointed this fall.