Team Fit: Jacksonville will almost certainly
run some version of the spread offense that was a signature of
new HC Urban Meyer's offenses at Utah, Florida and Ohio State.
Lawrence operated almost exclusively out of the shotgun spread
at Clemson and possesses the kind of high-end running ability
Meyer has sought in his quarterbacks over the years (Alex Smith,
Tim Tebow, J.T. Barrett, etc.). The fact Lawrence is regarded
as the best quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck should speak
for itself. Long-term, the arrival of Lawrence should allow D.J. Chark to maximize his abilities as a vertical receiver, while
the combination of Meyer and Lawrence should allow Laviska Shenault
to evolve into the same kind of mismatch weapon that Percy Harvin
and Curtis Samuel did under Meyer in college.
What does it mean in redraft? High-end QB2.
With legitimate 400-yard rushing upside, an offense with three
good receivers (Chark, Shenault and Marvin Jones) and a defense
that is still in transition, a top-12 fantasy finish is possible,
albeit unlikely.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
Check back next week.
Team Fit: New OC Mike LaFleur is a graduate of the Kyle Shanahan
finishing school for play-callers, and Wilson's ability to throw
on the move is a great fit for a Shanahan offense. There's no
question Wilson tries to model his game after Patrick Mahomes
and Aaron Rodgers. He possesses plenty of confidence in his ability
to throw against his body, improvises well and uses just almost
every imaginable arm angle when the situation calls for it. Wilson
also shows a surprising amount of touch and is remarkably accurate
for a young player with so much arm strength. It's the main reason
why a handful of talent evaluators have suggested they prefer
Wilson over Trevor Lawrence. While Corey Davis was a big-time
addition for the team in free agency, Wilson's strengths match
up well with Denzel Mims, who only got to show fans a small sample
of his ability in contested-catch situations and down the field.
One concern about Wilson: he's a bit on the light side and reckless
as a runner. He's already had surgery on his right shoulder and
right thumb, so concerns about his durability are legit.
What does it mean in redraft? QB2. The Jets already have more
pieces around Wilson than they ever provided Sam Darnold, but
the offense as a whole is still a work in progress.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: HC Kyle Shanahan and GM John Lynch made the bold move
to trade two future firsts (in addition to this year's pick) to
get the quarterback of the future, not for 2021. Despite his relative
inexperience and the fact he didn't play at the FBS level, Lance
is probably the right choice if only because he gives San Francisco
something more than what it has now in Jimmy Garoppolo. Frankly,
the idea of putting a quarterback capable of rushing for 600-plus
yards and 8-10 touchdowns in the same offense as some of the best
run-after-catch threats in the NFL in George Kittle, Deebo Samuel
and Brandon Aiyuk is frightening. Cut from the same cloth as Steve
McNair and Dak Prescott, Lance is incredibly football-smart (made
his own line calls as a redshirt freshman) and values the football
like few others (one interception across 17 college starts).
What does it mean in redraft? Superflex bench depth (for now).
The 49ers obviously have a great supporting cast in place, but
Shanahan is highly unlikely to put Lance into the lineup when
he is so raw and making such a big jump in competition. This pick
was made with 2022 and beyond in mind. However, his dual-threat
ability makes him a real threat for low-end QB1 value right away
if Garoppolo gets hurt or misses time.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: A player with the ability to force defensive coordinators
to dramatically alter a game plan due to his presence on the field
or his particular set of skills is what makes a skill-position
player worthy of a high first-round pick. Don't make the mistake
of thinking that Pitts will be underutilized just because new
HC Arthur Smith didn't use Jonnu Smith as much as some would have
liked in Tennessee. Not only is he the proverbial "too big
for safeties and too fast for linebackers" tight end, but
he is also a 6-6, 245-pounder with a massive wingspan (83-plus
inches) that can run receiver routes against NFL-caliber cornerbacks
and win those matchups. He's also an immediate threat for roughly
60 catches and 8-10 touchdowns. Why? Because defenses simply can't
take their attention away from Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley.
Pitts needs to be viewed by the fantasy public as more of a big
slot who plays in-line every so often as opposed to a tight end
who can play in the slot.
What does it mean in redraft? TE1. It's a scary proposition to
put any rookie tight end into the TE1 mix, but Pitts may be the
best tight end prospect most draft observers have ever seen.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: What does it say about a player's talent (and upside)
when his college coordinator opted to make him the featured receiver
over a record-breaking rookie receiver? (Full disclosure: Justin Jefferson's versatility had something to do with that decision.)
At any rate, Chase's strong hands - and his confidence in them
- shows up repeatedly on film, easily plucking passes all over
his catch radius with the greatest of ease. He is a beast after
the catch as well (23 broken tackles and 411 yards after contact
in 2019 were the most by an FBS receiver). In Cincinnati, he'll
pair up with his college quarterback (Joe Burrow). While you'll
have the benefit of easing into his role a bit with Tyler Boyd
and Tee Higgins already in tow, there's a reason I comped him
to Sterling Sharpe. It shouldn't take long for him to exert his
dominance on the league.
What does it mean in redraft? WR3 with high-end WR2 upside. There
are simply too many good receivers in the league right now to
push Chase into the top 24 as a rookie. With that said, the fact
I'm uncomfortable in saying that and the likelihood he has an
A.J. Brown-like rookie season makes him someone worth reaching
for on draft day.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: If there was one thing Miami was lacking last season,
it was game-breaking speed. The Dolphins added Will Fuller in
free agency, but it was a one-year deal. No receiver from a Power
Five conference with 100-plus career receptions since 2014 has
averaged more yards after the catch per reception than Waddle
(9.8). In Waddle and Fuller, Miami has two players who can score
from anywhere and create separation - the latter of which was
a very sore subject for Dolphins receivers in 2020. Waddle has
drawn numerous comps to Tyreek Hill throughout the draft process,
but a more realistic aspiration is Brandin Cooks. Waddle should
also immediately upgrade the Dolphins' special teams after averaging
19.3 yards per punt return and 23.8 yards per kick return with
three special teams touchdowns for the Crimson Tide. There is
no question he can eventually become his new team's featured receiver
one day, but it might come a bit later in his career that most
coaches and/or general managers will want to wait. His familiarity
with college teammate Tua Tagovailoa should help that process.
What does it mean in redraft? WR4. Waddle should provide the
occasional week-winning effort as a rookie, but it's probably
too much to ask of him to consistently produce DeVante Parker
and Fuller in 2021.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: Outside of his 166-pound lanky frame, name an area
or attribute necessary for a receiver to succeed and there's a
good chance Smith has an abundance of it. While questions about
his frame are legit, one has to dig far into the film to find
the SEC corner who was able to jam him at the line of scrimmage.
Smith plays with much more physicality than one would expect for
a player of his size. But let's get to the good stuff: there's
no question Smith will quickly become the alpha receiver in Philadelphia.
He is amazing in contested catch situations and proved to be uncoverable
down the stretch en route to win in the Heisman Trophy last season.
Smith drew comps to Marvin Harrison throughout the spring. I comped
him to Tyler Lockett, but there's little doubt my mind he'll succeed
where other smallish receivers have failed because he does so
much so well. It also helps his cause that he'll reunite with
former Alabama teammate Jalen Hurts.
What does it mean in redraft? WR4. Because Philadelphia figures
to be a bit of a slower-paced offense with plenty of RPO elements,
there may not be enough volume for Smith to be an immediate fantasy
starter.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: One can't help the feeling that GM Ryan Pace sees a
little bit of Deshaun Watson in Fields after passing on him for
Mitchell Trubisky a few years ago. The first thing that jumps
out about Fields is his 4.4 speed, but fans should not make the
mistake of believing he is a Lamar Jackson or Robert Griffin III
clone. He did most of his work from the pocket at Ohio State and
handled his responsibilities well, as Pro Football Focus charted
him with only 18 turnover-worthy plays in his college career.
If Chicago can somehow convince Allen Robinson to stick around
past 2021, the Bears may be on the verge of putting together a
solid supporting cast for their rookie quarterback (joining David Montgomery, Tarik Cohen, Darnell Mooney and Cole Kmet). The primary
reason Fields stayed on the board as long as he did was his tendency
to hold onto the football a split-second too long. (I explained
why this may not be all that big of a concern for him in his draft
profile.)
What does it mean in redraft? Superflex bench depth (for the
moment). Andy Dalton was added in free agency as a placeholder,
but there's no question Chicago will make the change to Fields
when it feels like he is ready. When that moment occurs (and it
will almost certainly happen before the end of this season), Fields'
dual-threat ability should make him a quality QB2 option.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: Is it really surprising that one year after one of
the most celebrated anticipatory passers in league history (Tom Brady) moves to another team that the Patriots somehow end up
with perhaps this draft's most cerebral signal-caller? Jones plays
with a discipline and intelligence that belies his 17 career starts,
winning with his ability to anticipate, process and throw with
accuracy like an NFL veteran. Jones' work ethic is also reaching
legendary status. If Jones can get knocked on anything, it is
his athleticism relative to the rest of his contemporaries in
this draft class and the number of easy throws he had in 2020.
(Per Pro Football Focus, Jones only threw into 44 tight windows
all season. For the sake of comparison, Joe Burrow threw into
124 in 2019.) The Florida native figures to sit behind Cam Newton
for a bit in 2020, but he will benefit from New England's investment
in Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith in free agency - and likely lean
on them while the Pats continue to build up their receiving corps
- once he becomes the starter.
What does it mean in redraft? Superflex bench depth, at least
until Newton misses time. If Newton goes down early, he could
serve as a low-end QB2 as a rookie.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
1.20 - WR Kadarius Toney, Giants
Team Fit: Back during the Detroit Pistons' "Bad Boys"
heyday, they had a sixth man named Vinnie Johnson. His nickname
was "The Microwave." That moniker would fit nicely for
Toney, who not only heats up fast when he gets the ball but can
also cook a defense just as quickly. The ease at which he is able
to start and stop as well as create separation is unreal. Toney
has legitimate upside in terms of developing as a route-runner.
However, it also has to make talent evaluators a bit upset that
Florida used to more as a gadget player early in his college career;
the Gators did him an injustice by not developing that part of
his game more. He also possesses dependable hands, as Pro Football
Focus credited him with only three drops on 123 catchable targets
in his college career. On the downside, Toney has dealt with multiple
shoulder injuries and had some off-field issues early on at Florida
that to be accounted for and/or explained. General managers and
scouts are the only ones that have answers to those questions
and the risk they feel Toney represents, but his on-field exploits
suggest he could help take an offense from good to great with
his ability to play in space and turn a short throw into a touchdown
on just about any play. In New York, he gives the offense a second
playmaker (Saquon Barkley being the other) that is nearly impossible
to game plan for and should draw significant attention away from
Kenny Golladay.
What does it mean in redraft? WR4 with immediate WR3 upside.
Toney is a smaller version of Deebo Samuel and should be used
in similar ways. It's up to Daniel Jones and OC Jason Garrett
to use him that way.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts?
Check back next week.
Team Fit: The Steelers desperately need to address their offensive
line, but their goal entering the offseason was to overhaul the
running game. Drafting the best three-down back is a good way
to start. A player who projects favorably to Steven Jackson and
Matt Forte, Harris will almost certainly step into a bell-cow
role right away and be used in much the same way Le'Veon Bell
was during his time in Pittsburgh. At 230-plus pounds, he is built
to handle and dish out punishment. The difference with him is
that he is surprisingly quick and elusive for a big back as well.
Harris lost one fumble over the entirety of his college career
(718 touches), so he is extremely dependable. However, it might
be his work as a receiver that separates him from the majority
of big backs. Harris was charged with only one drop last season
en route to 43 catches. He is one of the better backs in pass
protection in this draft as well.
What does it mean in redraft? RB1. HC Mike Tomlin has gone on
record several times to say he believes in having a bell-cow.
While Benny Snell and Anthony McFarland Jr. are sure to steal
a few snaps in relief, Harris should have the volume to finish
as a top-12 back.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: Maybe it shouldn't come as a shock, but this pick comes
as a bit of a surprise - even if new HC Urban Meyer felt as if
someone needed to take a bit of the load off James Robinson. At
the very least, the addition of Etienne ensures there will be
very little drop-off when one of the other needs a blow. Clemson's
all-time leading rusher is lauded for his big-play ability for
good reason (47 runs of 20 or more yards, 16 career touchdowns
of 44-plus yards), but he's more than just a home-run hitter.
He is a fearless runner with a strong base that gets his fair
share of yards after contact and has turned himself into a very
good receiver during his time in college. Comps to Alvin Kamara
are a bit lazy and unwarranted, but he does project favorably
to another versatile running back in Tiki Barber. Like Barber
early in his career, Etienne entered the league with ball security
issues (eight career fumbles, including four in 2020). The latter
is an unforgivable number given his 168 carries last year.
What does it mean in redraft? RB3. This is not a great landing
spot for him to contribute immediately. Unless Meyer is planning
on bumping one of the best backs in the league last year (Robinson)
from his starting perch, Etienne will likely be limited to 10-12
touches and perhaps the bulk of third-down work until Robinson
misses time.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Team Fit: The search for a receiver to a dependable alpha receiver
has been an ongoing one, although Bateman is a talented enough
player to bring it to an end. The Minnesota product is an elite
route-runner who showed surprising 4.39 speed at his pro day.
The 2019 Big Ten Receiver of the Year has no issue working over
the middle and does some of his best work after the catch (36
broken tackles on 147 career catches). The 21-year-old disappointed
with his blocking ability - a big deal playing for Baltimore -
and sported a career drop rate of 8.7 percent. On the plus side,
Bateman does profile favorably to Keenan Allen and is dealing
with many of the same supposed "shortcomings" as the
Chargers' stud did coming out of college. More than likely, Bateman's
career will mirror that of Corey Davis or Jerricho Cotchery.
What does it mean in redraft? WR5. It's hard to imagine Bateman
will enjoy much immediate success competing for targets with Mark Andrews, Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins among others. The Ravens'
run-heavy offense figures to limit his chances for fantasy success
even more.
Where should I expect him to go in my rookie drafts? Check back
next week.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today's hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM's "Fantasy Drive". Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
