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Bitter Sweet Symphony



By Doug Orth | 12/24/20 |

Ask 100 different people in any given year what that year meant to them and you could very well receive 100 different answers. Ask those same people what 2020 meant to them and there is a very good chance most of the answers will sound remarkably similar. Dread, suffering and incalculable loss - in some cases - would be among the most common themes of the answers this year. Perhaps no year tested our resolve more - and showed America just how much progress we need to make as a collective group - than 2020.

I was one of the fortunate ones in that dread and suffering didn't enter the mix all that much for me, but I was not able to avoid incalculable loss when my mother died in early August. Thankfully, coronavirus had nothing to do with her passing. She lived for 84 years, so we were blessed to have her with us for as long as we did although she was in pain for more of those years than I care to remember. Even though those struggles, I'll be damned if she wasn't the best mother I could have asked for. I have never met a more selfless person.

Upon her passing, there was a certain amount of internal desire to dedicate this season to her, as no person in my life cared more about my success and understood less about what I was doing with this whole fantasy football thing than her. (Yes, things can be funny, sad AND true at the same time.) Dementia began to rob her of her mental faculties about three years ago, which was also the last time I saw her before her funeral. After speaking with her roughly every week over the phone since I became an adult, we didn't speak for the final two years of her life when it was decided it made little sense to continue to pay for phone service. (I live halfway across the country from the rest of my family and speaking on the phone became quite difficult, as anyone who has dealt with dementia in their family can probably attest.)

And yet, I have no regrets. I am so thankful she did not suffer (at least not outwardly). We exchanged "I love you" enough times in our conversations over the years that I felt strangely at peace with knowing that she knew I did before she passed. I didn't give what I am about to say much thought until I started writing this paragraph, but perhaps she had a hand - knowing how important my success and leaving my mark on the world was/is to me - in what is shaping up to be perhaps my finest season in this little hobby of ours. It's a nice thought anyway.

The first few paragraphs were not meant to bum you out this holiday season. (Quite the opposite actually.) It's probably a bit cliché to tell each of you to use this story as a reminder to hold your loved ones a bit tighter and hug them a bit longer during the holiday season and moving forward. Make sure when you say "I love you" that it isn't just a reflex and means something. Love is an emotional investment; we should feel something every time we give or receive it. Enjoy the extra moments 2020 has given you to bond with your family. Cherish them. No one has ever complained about the need to find more room to store life's most precious and (good) unforgettable moments.

**********

Getting to the business at hand, it has become customary for me in recent years to apply the Q&A format of the show "Frasier" to help each of you take home your league's fantasy championship. Hopefully, I have been able to help some of you accomplish that goal over the years in "Hello Caller, I'm Listening," Championship Calls" or "Trophy Hunting."

Note: PPR scoring will be assumed unless otherwise noted.

Joe H.: Picked up George Kittle as soon as I heard he was activated off of IR. If he is cleared for this week, how confident are you putting him into lineups? I've been playing the TE #12-15 carousel all year picking wrong between players such as Jared Cook and Dalton Schultz.

There isn't much question in my mind that Kittle should be started if he is cleared to play Saturday afternoon. Even better for fantasy owners is that only two games will have been played by the time San Francisco takes the field, so there should theoretically be more decent options available than if the game was being played during the late window Sunday afternoon as NFC West games often are.

There were reports that Kittle was "getting some work in" last Thursday (Dec. 17), but it's probably safe to say he's been limited the entire time (teams don't need to document the practice participation of players on IR until they are activated from it). Fantasy owners were given a bit more information Tuesday (Dec. 22) when HC Kyle Shanahan told reporters that "if (Kittle) is good, I plan on him playing."

It's not hard envisioning a scenario in which Kittle plays about 40 snaps against the Cardinals, perhaps a few more if the 49ers get him involved early and give him a chance to set the tone. Those things can't be assumed, however, and it makes things more difficult for his fantasy owners that C.J. Beathard will be his quarterback. The absence of Raheem Mostert (ankle) eliminates another potential threat for the defense, so a game in which the 49ers throw for about 150 yards is well within the range of plausible outcomes. Working in Kittle's favor is the emergence of rookie Brandon Aiyuk, who should draw Patrick Peterson's coverage on roughly two-thirds of his routes. Another positive: Shanahan won't activate Kittle just to waste him or have him serve as a decoy. We can be confident he'll be a top 10 option even if his snaps are limited.

The Cardinals have been a poor matchup for tight ends all season long, but I have found over the years it is much more important to look at the quality of tight ends a defense has faced and make judgments based on that as opposed to where they rank against tight ends in general. Kittle was injured in the Week 1 meeting, partially explaining his relatively low 9.3 point total. Jesse James vultured a touchdown from T.J. Hockenson in Week 3. The tag-team combinations of Tyler Higbee (12.4 fantasy points) and Gerald Everett (10.4) as well as Zach Ertz (8.9) and Dallas Goedert (7.9) have put up some respectable totals against Arizona in recent weeks as well, so I certainly don't fear this matchup. I don't put together weekly rankings, but I would feel relatively confident ranking him behind only Travis Kelce, Darren Waller and Hockenson this week - and that is only because I don't trust Beathard all that much.

If Kittle isn't cleared, who's your sneakiest option at tight end in the #12-20 range for this weekend? I've been playing around all season with a carousel of Schultz, Cook, Jonnu Smith and Zach Ertz (after his return).

For the sake of this discussion, the tight ends currently ranked 12-20 in PPR are Rob Gronkowski, Eric Ebron, Evan Engram, Hayden Hurst, Jimmy Graham, Tyler Higbee, Dallas Goedert, Cook and (amazingly) Kittle. At least half of those tight ends are going to be owned in the majority of leagues simply due to how many owners streamed the position this year. Heck, I would consider Gronkowski, Engram, Hurst and Goedert to be every-week starters in most leagues. Kittle will be considered a must-start for most if he plays this week, while Graham is slowly but surely getting phased out in favor of Cole Kmet. Smith has been touchdown-or-bust since Week 5 (and is still the overall TE10).

Higbee has shown signs of life with two double-digit fantasy performances over the last three weeks, but can that be considered a bankable trend considering he scored less than 10 points in each of his previous eight outings? On the plus side, he ran 26 routes to Gerald Everett's 12 in Week 15 - the first time in 10 weeks that Higbee ran at least six more routes than Everett in a game in 10 weeks.

Moving outside the top 20 tight ends, Austin Hooper returned from a one-game absence and finally cashed in with a 15.1-point effort similar to what he was doing before his appendectomy after Week 6. He is a widely available option that faces a Jets' defense that has given up league-high marks of 926 yards and 13 touchdowns to tight ends.

Jordan Akins is also a palatable option given his matchup against the Bengals, but I'd like to see him get a bit more usage in the slot as I suggested might be the case a few weeks ago. Since the start of Will Fuller's suspension prior to Week 13, Akins ranks third among all tight ends with 55 snaps (on 90 routes) in the slot. The problem is he has only been targeted on 10 of those 55 plays when he lined up inside. Another reason why he's a longshot: he has attracted only five red zone targets all season, including three inside the 10. It's incredibly difficult for a tight end to hit in a given week in fantasy if he is not a primary option near the goal line and isn't being all that heavily targeted in the slot (where his matchup should be the most favorable and provide him the most space to operate).

Kopy (and a few others): Am I starting Russell Wilson or Jalen Hurts?

As unthinkable of a question as this was to ask as recently as two weeks ago, the degree to which the answer is not the same as it would have been two weeks ago may be even more surprising. Let's begin with Wilson's recent production. Through the first nine weeks of the season, Mr. Unlimited's worst fantasy-point total was 24.9 (six points per passing touchdown). Since then, he has topped that mark once (30.1 versus the Jets in Week 14). In four of those six games, Wilson has attempted 31 or fewer passes. Over the first nine weeks, he averaged 37 attempts.

Next, let's consider the matchup. Since Week 6, five of the eight quarterbacks the Rams have faced have scored fewer than 10 fantasy points (again, six points per passing touchdown). Included in that group was Wilson's 9.9 in Week 10. The most points any quarterback has scored over that same time was Kyler Murray's 22.4. Murray is also responsible for three of the six passing scores Los Angeles has surrendered over the last five contests. If that's not enough, Wilson has not accounted for a touchdown in either of his last two games versus the Rams (three interceptions).

Maybe the notion that a "cold quarterback" in a difficult matchup isn't enough to scare you. Let's continue. DK Metcalf runs well over half of his routes on the left side of the formation. Along with OC Brian Schottenheimer's unwillingness to show more creativity with formations (i.e. lining Metcalf up in a bunch set or having him work out of the slot more often) to get him more easy releases, Jalen Ramsey did a masterful job of checking him in the first matchup. Tyler Lockett also doesn't catch a break against the Rams either, as Darious Williams and slot CB Troy Hill have proven they can more than hold their own. While the NFL is highly unpredictable and nothing can ever be truly considered a lock, the evidence is overwhelming that Wilson should not even be considered a top-12 option this week.

OK, so Wilson isn't a great start then. Why is Hurts better? After all, two games of film should be enough for defensive coordinators to build a bit of a book on slowing down a rookie. He's bound for a letdown, right? I don't disagree. One would have to imagine Hurts is going to let his fantasy owners down before long. It happens. Rookies are unpredictable. If it's not that, projected game script could go haywire. (Remember how Cam Akers was going to run for 150 yards and three TDs against the Jets last week?)

Here's the problem with believing it's going to happen in Week 16 against Dallas: Hurts is averaging 14.5 rush attempts in his two starts. He may not have Lamar Jackson's game-breaking ability as a runner, but he is a highly impressive athlete nonetheless who is getting the same kind of opportunity on the ground as the Ravens' star during last year's MVP campaign. In last week's loss to Arizona, he was trusted with the same kind of passing volume Wilson had when he was still "cooking." The Eagles may not need Hurts to handle the ball 55 times (44 pass attempts and 11 rush attempts last week) versus the Cowboys as he did against the Cardinals, but there is already enough evidence to suggest he'll be in that neighborhood.

However, the reason Hurts is the smart play here is what Dallas has done (or not done) against players with similar profiles. The Cowboys' recent work against quarterbacks suggests improvement is being made, but Alex Smith, Brandon Allen and Nick Mullens are three of the last four starting signal-callers the Cowboys have opposed. Wilson (44.8 fantasy points in Week 3), Murray (32.9 in Week 6) and Lamar Jackson (29.7 in Week 13) are the three best dual-threats they have seen this year, and all of them have thrived. Hurts may not be in their class, but I like his chances to exceed 200 passing yards and 60 rushing yards while accounting for two TDs, even in a game I believe Miles Sanders does the bulk of the damage. That projection for Hurts - which is probably a conservative one - is a ceiling I don't think Wilson is capable of reaching this week.

dpbuddha: (Start two - limit four RBs plus one IR slot) My RBs are limping badly and I'm going to need to roll with one or two waiver wire guys. I have Miles Sanders, Lynn Bowden, Joe Mixon (IR), Ronald Jones (IR) and Myles Gaskin (IR).

Available waiver-wire RBs: Le'Veon Bell, Tony Pollard, Salvon Ahmed and Benny Snell.

What do you recommend?

Let's remove the mystery and call Sanders your RB1 this week. Whereas the majority of the industry seems to believe Jalen Hurts will destroy the Cowboys' defense, I think it is just as likely Sanders takes off in the same way Baltimore's running backs did against Dallas back in Week 13 (combined 24 carries for 200 yards) while Jalen Hurts takes more of a back seat. I'm not saying that will happen, but Hurts-mania has reached a ridiculous level for a player who has made two career starts. Defenses can and will adjust eventually, even the ones we view as weak.

At this point, we can probably write off Mixon for the rest of the season. HC Zac Taylor told reporters Wednesday (Dec. 23) that his starting running back won't play in Week 16, and it would be pointless to bring him back after a 10-week layoff to face the Ravens in the season finale. Unfortunately, everything else about this dpbuddha's question is still very much in flux.

Bucs HC Bruce Arians called Jones "doubtful" on Tuesday (Dec. 22) while noting his top back has yet to practice with his finger injury. As many readers undoubtedly already know, Jones has yet to be cleared from the COVID list. Gaskin would seem to be a strong start after he was activated from the COVID-19 list Wednesday, but the early returns on players coming back from a positive COVID test suggest they cannot be expected to perform at nearly the same level they did before the diagnosis.

Given your roster-limit rules, I would drop Mixon and Jones (assuming your league ends after this week). In their place, I would use the following priority for the waiver-wire backs:

Bell - Let's be clear; this recommendation is all about the offense to which Bell is attached. If he still has some burst left, I haven't seen it since he joined the Chiefs. However, he is probably a lock for 15 touches with Clyde Edwards-Helaire (hip, ankle) done for the rest of the regular season. Volume is always a huge consideration for running backs. Combine that with the kind of touchdown upside this offense possesses, and it's difficult to view any starting running back for Kansas City as anything less than an RB2.

Pollard - It would be far from surprising if Dallas opts to have Ezekiel Elliott share work with Pollard for the rest of the season. Zeke had never missed a game due to injury before last week and his contract makes it almost impossible for the Cowboys to not play him when he is able. To that end, Elliott also told reporters Wednesday: “I feel better today than I have in the last three weeks on a Wednesday."

Ahmed - The undrafted rookie free-agent has shown he deserves some work moving forward, even if Gaskin remains the unquestioned lead back. However, I already summed up earlier why Ahmed could be the lead back for at least one more week.

Snell - HC Mike Tomlin told reporters Tuesday that he "was impressed with the efforts of Benny Snell and what we were able to do" (in the running game). That's nice. It's a shame at this point of the season that a team that has been known for physical football for the bulk of its existence cannot seem to be trusted with running the ball at the most important time of the year for fantasy owners. James Conner is expected back this week as well, so while Snell could wind up on the lesser end of a 60/40 split, it probably won't mean much in the grand scheme of things. The only way I see my opinion changing on that is if Colts DT DeForest Buckner is ruled out with the same ankle injury he played through in Week 15.

If you land Bell, I'd roll with him and Sanders. If not, I'd probably go with Sanders and Bowden unless I really like what I hear from Dolphins' reporters or coaches about Gaskin. (That seems extremely unlikely.)

weepaws: (Non-PPR) I have Brandin Cooks, Sony Michel, Tyler Lockett, Emmanuel Sanders, George Kittle and T.J. Hockensen. I need a WR2, flex and tight end.

I think we can safely eliminate Michel from the flex conversation. There's a real chance Damien Harris (ankle) returns this week after missing Week 15, first and foremost. Given the limited upside Michel possesses, it's not worth waiting until Monday night to see if he has the backfield to himself or will ride the bench. Secondly, New England hasn't scored an offensive touchdown since its 45-0 beatdown of the Chargers in Week 13. Last but not least, Buffalo is clicking offensively to the point that the Patriots may not be able to stick with the run. If that happens, it's a virtual certainty Michel won't be in the game very often.

The case for or against Lockett was briefly spelled out earlier. Even though it seems reasonably obvious, the success of a particular receiver is almost always tied in with the success of his quarterback. In Lockett's case, fantasy owners are betting on a touchdown - something he hasn't scored in seven of his last eight outings. Additionally, the Rams have permitted a league-low seven touchdowns to receivers. Since the team's Week 9 bye, Los Angeles has allowed a TD reception to Chris Godwin, Mike Evans and DeAndre Hopkins. That's it. That's the list.

I'm not sure I'm buying Cooks and Sanders to be much better than Michel and Lockett this week, but when we consider the former seems to have set about a 60-yard floor and has a middling matchup against the Bengals' secondary, I like his chances of reaching that floor and maybe even ending a five-game streak without a touchdown in what may be Houston's easiest matchup in over a month. At this point, it's hard to even know what other Saints' receiver will join Sanders out on the field in Week 16. Michael Thomas is on IR, Tre'Quan Smith injured his ankle in Week 15 and Marquez Callaway (knee) may or may not come off IR in time to play Friday. The Vikings' defense has been a sieve all season long against opposing wideouts, yielding 21 receiving TDs to the position. Sanders is a great bet for 70-plus yards and a score.

In a high-stakes PPR league, I have the same dilemma between Kittle and Hockenson. It's a question I've pondered since I snagged Kittle off waivers about two weeks ago. The fact this question is dealing with a non-PPR league raises at least one point that needs to be considered:

Kittle has not been a big touchdown scorer in his career (14 in 51 career games, or once every 3.6 games). Hockenson's career TD rate of 3.25 isn't much better, but it's easy to forget Hockenson was healthy for just over one game as a rookie last year. Even though he has scored only once since Week 9, he is a regular and trusted red zone target for Matthew Stafford. The likelihood of a touchdown being scored here is important because the non-PPR aspect of the scoring removes what could potentially be a 4-5 point advantage for Kittle under normal circumstances in PPR.

Neither player is not facing normal circumstances at the moment, however. Kittle has:

- Third-stringer QB C.J. Beathard will be under center this week.
- A difficult matchup (on paper, at least) with Arizona that yielded a total of three touchdowns to tight ends for the season.
- Not played since Week 8. There's also been no word if he has or will log a full practice before Saturday's game. Thus, we probably need to assume he will be on a snap count.

As for Hockenson, he:

- is coming off the worst game of the season.
- has to deal with his quarterback playing hurt.
- may be without interim head coach (and current offensive coordinator) Darrell Bevell. It was reported Wednesday that Bevell and several members of his defensive staff were considered close contacts to someone who tested positive for COVID-19. Some - if not all - of those coaches could be forced to miss Saturday's game.

Given the information that has come to light Wednesday about Detroit's possible COVID-19 issues (and the potential absence of Bevell), I'd be hard-pressed to not start Kittle if we get many more nuggets like this from those who cover the 49ers.

Brian F.: 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 Flex. 0.5 PPR, 0.25 points per carry. James Robinson, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, Tyreek Hill, Allen Robinson, Robert Woods and Terry McLaurin.

As Brian noted in his tweet, he has settled on Kamara and Dobbins as his running backs. I agree. Robinson is a huge question mark for multiple reasons, not the least of which is how much he will play and how effective he will be with his ankle injury. The matchup against the Bears is also far from enticing. Generally speaking, Chicago is very good against the run whenever DT Akiem Hicks plays. Considering everything that I have mentioned up to this point, Robinson might be considered an RB2 this week even if he didn't have any kind of injury concern.

Hill and Robinson are also locks for me, although the former began the practice week with a DNP due to the hamstring tweak he suffered in Week 15. Barring two more DNPs and a listing of doubtful or out on the injury report, however, his upside is just too high to bench. So the question then becomes Woods vs. McLaurin vs. Robinson for the flex spot.

Robinson has established a double-digit fantasy floor in half-point PPR, reaching that mark in all but two of his games this year (a pair of 9.5 efforts). However, that was before the ankle injury. McLaurin is already a star and was pretty much a model of consistency through 12 weeks. His last three games have produced lines of 2-14-0, 2-24-0 and 7-77-0, however. Logan Thomas has become more of a focus of the passing game for the Football Team over that time as defenses are doing their best to make someone other than McLaurin beat them, especially with Antonio Gibson sidelined. As of the middle of this week, we also don't know the identity of Washington's starting quarterback either. McLaurin also figures to see plenty of stud CB James Bradberry this week.

This brings us to Woods, who has the softest matchup on paper and is healthy. But does Seattle really offer the soft matchup its year-to-date numbers suggest it does? No. The Seahawks have been the stingiest defense versus receivers over the last five weeks. They haven't surrendered a touchdown to the position since Week 9. Some of the credit for that goes to lackluster opposition Seattle has faced, as a struggling Carson Wentz, Colt McCoy, Sam Darnold and Dwayne Haskins are sure to help a defense improve its numbers. Jared Goff is better than that bunch, but is he significantly better? For what it's worth in the year of empty stadiums and minimal home-field advantage, it should be noted that Goff and (somewhat by extension) Woods have been significantly more productive on the road than at home. This game is in Seattle.

Amazingly, I just managed to take the RB4 (Robinson), WR10 (Woods) and WR15 (McLaurin) in half-point PPR on the season and make them all sound like mediocre starts this week. The problem with going with what seems like the surest best (Robinson) is there's no guarantee he'll be given a full workload should he suffer even the slightest setback during the game. As a result, I find myself drawn with Woods in the flex because he offers the safest floor, reasonable upside and isn't dealing with quarterback or injury issues.


 

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.