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Red Zone Report - Rushing


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 7/5/22 |
Rushing | Receiving


After a five-year hiatus, it seemed like a good time to bring back an improved version of the Red Zone Report.

One of the older fantasy football adages is more opportunity tends to lead to more success. That logic applies just as much - if not more so - inside the 20 than it does outside of it. Since touchdowns are the lifeblood of fantasy football and the majority of them are scored closer to the goal line, it only makes sense to take into account who received those chances and how successful they were with them the previous season. Red zone analysis helps owners do this.

However, looking at what teams did inside the 20 does not provide a complete picture. For one, a much higher percentage of touchdowns are scored inside the 5 than the 10 and 20 - for obvious reasons. Another important distinction to make is that different game scripts, personnel and coaching alter the landscape year after year.

An analysis of red zone workloads helps to set realistic expectations and establishes a rough parameter for doing so. It is highly unlikely to provide an accurate forecast of what is to come. For example, the Colts figure to remain a running team in 2022, but just because Jonathan Taylor ran 85 times inside the 20 last year does not mean he can be expected to do it again. Having a steady presence at quarterback like Matt Ryan is going to allow HC Frank Reich to diversify more than he did in 2021.

Below you will find each team's rushing breakdown inside the 20, 10 and 5 last season followed by a brief summary of what it could mean for the 2022 season. Next week, I will do the same for members of the passing game.

Notes: For the sake of time and space, I set the cutoff at four red zone rushing attempts. Players who played for multiple teams may appear twice.

Here is a key for abbreviations below:

Att - Rushing attempt
TD – Rushing touchdown
Rush% – Percent of team's carries inside specified area

*****All data courtesy of Pro Football Reference.

 Red Zone Rushing Data, 2021
   Inside 20  Inside 10  Inside 5
Rk Player Tm Att TD Rush % Att TD Rush % Att TD Rush %
1 Jonathan Taylor IND 85 14 80.2% 41 13 78.8% 26 11 83.9%
2 Austin Ekeler LAC 46 12 46.0% 25 10 48.1% 12 7 52.2%
3 Sony Michel LAR 45 4 54.9% 24 4 60.0% 6 3 42.9%
4 Dalvin Cook MIN 45 5 54.2% 26 4 54.2% 12 3 70.6%
5 Damien Harris NE 44 13 47.3% 30 11 60.0% 14 9 58.3%
6 David Montgomery CHI 43 7 51.8% 24 7 51.1% 12 6 57.1%
7 Antonio Gibson WAS 43 7 58.1% 25 6 56.8% 12 5 54.5%
8 James Conner ARI 41 15 41.4% 28 12 50.0% 16 10 57.1%
9 Alvin Kamara NO 40 3 52.6% 17 2 54.8% 9 2 60.0%
10 Leonard Fournette TB 40 6 55.6% 25 6 49.0% 11 5 55.0%
11 Joe Mixon CIN 39 11 67.2% 26 9 72.2% 14 7 70.0%
12 Nick Chubb CLE 39 5 44.3% 22 4 51.2% 10 4 52.6%
13 AJ Dillon GB 39 5 45.3% 21 5 48.8% 10 4 50.0%
14 Devin Singletary BUF 38 6 36.9% 18 5 32.1% 7 4 35.0%
15 Melvin Gordon DEN 37 6 45.7% 21 5 44.7% 9 4 45.0%
16 Josh Jacobs LV 37 9 50.0% 21 8 56.8% 12 7 60.0%
17 Ezekiel Elliott DAL 35 10 48.6% 17 7 53.1% 12 6 60.0%
18 Aaron Jones GB 32 4 37.2% 15 4 34.9% 6 4 30.0%
19 Derrick Henry TEN 32 8 39.5% 17 7 39.5% 8 4 36.4%
20 Cordarrelle Patterson ATL 31 6 46.3% 13 5 40.6% 5 1 45.5%
21 Myles Gaskin MIA 31 3 45.6% 20 3 46.5% 6 2 27.3%
22 Jalen Hurts PHI 31 9 29.8% 22 9 31.4% 13 7 36.1%
23 Josh Allen BUF 30 6 29.1% 17 5 30.4% 7 3 35.0%
24 Javonte Williams DEN 29 4 35.8% 21 4 44.7% 9 2 45.0%
25 Najee Harris PIT 29 6 70.7% 17 6 73.9% 10 4 66.7%
26 Darrel Williams KC 28 6 35.4% 20 6 45.5% 14 6 63.6%
27 Alexander Mattison MIN 28 3 33.7% 14 3 29.2% 2 1 11.8%
28 Zack Moss BUF 25 4 24.3% 16 4 28.6% 5 3 25.0%
29 Michael Carter NYJ 25 4 35.2% 16 4 34.8% 8 3 29.6%
30 Chuba Hubbard CAR 24 4 33.8% 9 3 24.3% 2 1 13.3%
31 James Robinson JAC 24 8 42.1% 17 8 51.5% 10 7 55.6%
32 Darrell Henderson LAR 24 5 29.3% 13 5 32.5% 7 4 50.0%
33 Kyler Murray ARI 23 5 23.2% 11 4 19.6% 5 3 17.9%
34 Rhamondre Stevenson NE 23 5 24.7% 11 5 22.0% 5 3 20.8%
35 Jordan Howard PHI 23 3 22.1% 14 3 20.0% 6 3 16.7%
36 Jamaal Williams DET 22 3 41.5% 10 3 34.5% 5 3 45.5%
37 Justin Herbert LAC 22 3 22.0% 12 3 23.1% 5 1 21.7%
38 Elijah Mitchell SF 21 4 35.6% 11 3 28.9% 4 2 28.6%
39 D'Onta Foreman TEN 21 2 25.9% 11 2 25.6% 4 1 18.2%
40 Chase Edmonds ARI 20 2 20.2% 12 1 21.4% 5 1 17.9%
41 Mike Davis ATL 20 3 29.9% 10 2 31.3% 3 2 27.3%
42 Latavius Murray BAL 20 5 29.9% 12 3 31.6% 3 1 15.8%
43 Miles Sanders PHI 20 0 19.2% 10 0 14.3% 5 0 13.9%
44 D'Andre Swift DET 19 4 35.8% 11 3 37.9% 4 2 36.4%
45 Justin Jackson LAC 19 2 19.0% 8 1 15.4% 2 0 8.7%
46 Boston Scott PHI 19 7 18.3% 16 7 22.9% 10 7 27.8%
47 D'Ernest Johnson CLE 17 3 19.3% 7 3 16.3% 2 2 10.5%
48 Rex Burkhead HOU 17 2 32.1% 13 2 46.4% 5 2 50.0%
49 Patrick Mahomes KC 17 2 21.5% 8 2 18.2% 0 0 0.0%
50 Lamar Jackson BAL 16 2 23.9% 7 2 18.4% 6 2 31.6%
51 Christian McCaffrey CAR 16 1 22.5% 9 0 24.3% 3 0 20.0%
52 Rashaad Penny SEA 16 3 27.6% 8 2 26.7% 3 1 15.8%
53 Mark Ingram HOU 15 1 28.3% 8 1 28.4% 5 1 50.0%
54 Kareem Hunt CLE 15 4 17.0% 7 4 16.3% 4 3 21.1%
55 Dak Prescott DAL 15 1 20.8% 9 1 28.1% 4 1 20.0%
56 Tony Pollard DAL 15 1 20.8% 3 1 9.4% 2 1 10.0%
57 Devontae Booker NYG 15 2 33.3% 8 1 34.8% 5 1 45.5%
58 Devonta Freeman BAL 14 5 20.9% 11 5 28.9% 6 4 31.6%
59 Taysom Hill NO 14 4 18.4% 7 4 22.6% 3 2 20.0%
60 Deebo Samuel SF 14 5 23.7% 9 3 23.7% 1 1 7.1%
61 Ryan Tannehill TEN 14 7 17.3% 9 7 20.9% 6 6 27.3%
62 Daniel Jones NYG 13 2 28.9% 5 2 21.7% 2 1 18.2%
63 Tevin Coleman NYJ 13 0 18.3% 9 0 19.6% 4 0 14.8%
64 Alex Collins SEA 13 2 22.4% 7 1 23.3% 4 1 21.1%
65 Ronald Jones TB 13 4 18.1% 9 4 17.6% 4 1 20.0%
66 Trevor Lawrence JAC 12 2 21.1% 7 2 21.2% 4 1 22.2%
67 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC 12 4 15.2% 7 4 15.9% 2 2 9.1%
68 Matt Ryan ATL 11 1 16.4% 9 1 28.1% 3 1 27.3%
69 Kenyan Drake LV 11 2 14.9% 2 1 5.4% 1 1 5.0%
70 Saquon Barkley NYG 11 2 24.4% 6 2 26.1% 2 1 18.2%
71 Ty Johnson NYJ 11 2 15.5% 8 2 17.4% 5 2 18.5%
72 Taylor Heinicke WAS 11 1 14.9% 9 1 20.5% 4 1 18.2%
73 Mark Ingram NO 10 1 13.2% 3 0 9.7% 2 0 13.4%
74 Teddy Bridgewater DEN 10 2 12.3% 3 1 6.4% 2 1 10.0%
75 Carlos Hyde JAC 10 1 17.5% 6 1 18.2% 3 1 16.7%
76 Peyton Barber LV 10 2 13.5% 5 2 13.5% 2 1 10.0%
77 Kenneth Gainwell PHI 10 5 9.6% 8 4 11.4% 2 1 5.6%
78 Sam Darnold CAR 9 5 12.7% 6 4 16.2% 4 2 26.7%
79 Justin Fields CHI 9 1 10.8% 4 1 8.5% 1 1 4.8%
80 Joe Burrow CIN 9 2 15.5% 6 2 16.7% 4 0 20.0%
81 Carson Wentz IND 9 1 8.5% 7 1 13.5% 3 1 9.7%
82 Derrick Gore KC 9 1 11.4% 2 1 4.5% 2 1 9.1%
83 Tua Tagovailoa MIA 9 3 13.2% 5 3 11.6% 4 3 18.2%
84 Austin Walter NYJ 9 1 12.7% 2 1 4.3% 2 1 7.4%
85 Jeff Wilson SF 9 2 15.3% 6 2 15.8% 3 1 21.4%
86 Cam Newton CAR 8 4 11.3% 5 3 13.5% 4 3 26.7%
87 Damien Williams CHI 8 2 9.6% 4 2 8.5% 3 2 14.3%
88 Khalil Herbert CHI 8 1 9.6% 5 1 10.6% 2 1 9.5%
89 Andy Dalton CHI 8 0 9.6% 5 0 10.6% 2 0 9.5%
90 Patrick Taylor GB 8 1 9.3% 3 1 7.0% 2 1 10.0%
91 Duke Johnson MIA 8 3 11.8% 6 3 14.0% 4 2 18.2%
92 Brandon Bolden NE 8 1 8.6% 3 0 6.0% 2 0 8.3%
93 Zach Wilson NYJ 8 3 11.3% 8 3 17.4% 6 3 22.2%
94 Tom Brady TB 8 2 11.1% 8 2 15.7% 2 2 10.0%
95 Ameer Abdullah CAR 7 0 9.9% 3 0 8.1% 1 0 6.7%
96 Aaron Rodgers GB 7 3 8.1% 4 3 9.3% 2 2 10.0%
97 David Johnson HOU 7 0 13.2% 2 0 7.1% 0 0 0.0%
98 Dare Ogunbowale JAC 7 1 12.3% 2 1 6.1% 1 1 5.6%
99 Larry Rountree III LAC 7 1 7.0% 4 1 7.7% 2 1 8.7%
100 Matthew Stafford LAR 7 0 8.5% 3 0 7.5% 1 0 7.1%
101 Derek Carr LV 7 0 9.5% 4 0 10.8% 2 0 10.0%
102 Malcolm Brown MIA 7 0 10.3% 6 0 14.0% 4 0 18.2%
103 Mac Jones NE 7 0 7.5% 1 0 2.0% 0 0 0.0%
104 Russell Wilson SEA 7 2 12.1% 3 1 10.0% 3 1 15.8%
105 Chris Carson SEA 7 2 12.1% 3 2 10.0% 2 2 10.5%
106 Case Keenum CLE 6 0 6.8% 2 0 4.7% 0 0 0.0%
107 DeeJay Dallas SEA 6 2 10.3% 2 2 6.7% 2 2 10.5%
108 Jaret Patterson WAS 6 2 8.1% 2 1 4.5% 1 1 4.5%
109 J.D. McKissic WAS 6 2 8.1% 4 2 9.1% 2 1 9.1%
110 Adrian Peterson SEA 5 1 8.6% 4 1 13.4% 3 1 15.8%
111 Phillip Lindsay MIA 5 0 7.4% 1 0 2.3% 1 0 4.5%
112 Le'Veon Bell BAL 5 2 7.5% 3 2 7.9% 2 2 10.6%
113 Rondale Moore ARI 5 0 5.1% 1 0 1.8% 1 0 3.6%
114 Colt McCoy ARI 5 0 5.1% 1 0 1.8% 0 0 0.0%
115 Ty'Son Williams BAL 5 0 7.5% 2 0 5.3% 1 0 5.3%
116 Tyler Huntley BAL 5 2 7.5% 2 2 5.3% 1 1 5.3%
117 Craig Reynolds DET 5 0 9.4% 3 0 10.3% 1 0 9.1%
118 Nyheim Hines IND 5 1 4.7% 2 1 3.8% 0 0 0.0%
119 Joshua Kelley LAC 5 0 5.0% 3 0 5.8% 2 0 8.7%
120 Marcus Mariota LV 5 1 6.8% 3 1 8.1% 2 1 10.0%
121 J.J. Taylor NE 5 2 5.4% 3 2 6.0% 3 2 12.5%
122 Ben Roethlisberger PIT 5 1 12.2% 2 1 8.7% 2 1 13.3%
123 Ke'Shawn Vaughn TB 5 1 6.9% 4 1 7.8% 1 1 5.0%
124 Jeremy McNichols TEN 5 0 6.2% 3 0 7.0% 1 0 4.5%
125 Adrian Peterson TEN 4 1 4.9% 2 1 4.7% 2 1 9.0%
126 Royce Freeman HOU 4 0 7.6% 1 0 3.9% 0 0 0.0%
127 Isaiah McKenzie BUF 4 1 3.9% 2 1 3.6% 0 0 0.0%
128 Baker Mayfield CLE 4 1 4.5% 1 1 2.3% 0 0 0.0%
129 Jarvis Landry CLE 4 2 4.5% 2 1 4.7% 1 0 5.3%
130 Tyrod Taylor HOU 4 3 7.5% 2 2 7.1% 0 0 0.0%
131 Kirk Cousins MIN 4 1 4.8% 4 1 8.3% 1 1 5.9%
132 Jameis Winston NO 4 1 5.3% 3 1 9.7% 0 0 0.0%
133 Tony Jones NO 4 0 5.3% 1 0 3.2% 1 0 6.7%
134 Trey Lance SF 4 1 6.8% 2 1 5.3% 1 1 7.1%
135 JaMycal Hasty SF 4 1 6.8% 3 1 7.9% 1 1 7.1%
136 Dontrell Hilliard TEN 4 0 4.9% 1 0 2.3% 1 0 4.5%
137 Jonathan Williams WAS 4 1 5.4% 3 1 6.8% 2 1 9.1%

Arizona
Inside the 20: 98 carries, 22 TDs
Inside the 10: 55 carries, 17 TDs
Inside the 5: 27 carries, 14 TDs

James Conner was easily the Cardinals' most trusted rushing option in the red zone, handling 41.4 percent of the carries inside the 20 and more than 50 percent of the rush attempts inside the 10 and 5. What makes things slightly interesting for 2022 is that newcomer Darrel Williams posted similar marks last year with Kansas City. Could we see Williams get some of those touches this year in hopes of preserving the 27-year-old with an extensive injury history?

Atlanta
Inside the 20: 67 carries, 11 TDs
Inside the 10: 32 carries, 8 TDs
Inside the 5: 11 carries, 4 TDs

Cordarrelle Patterson is extremely unlikely to repeat last season, but it is at least notable that he had one more red zone opportunity (carries plus targets) than James Conner when we factor in passing-game work (43-42). However, it is much better to have more chances inside the 10 and particularly the 5; Conner had nearly twice as many opportunities inside the 10 (28-15) and more than three times as many chances inside the 5 as a rusher (16-5). Not only does the offense figure to struggle in 2022, but the arrival of Tyler Allgeier (not to mention the mobility of quarterbacks Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder) also threatens Patterson's touches in scoring territory.

Baltimore
Inside the 20: 67 carries, 16 TDs
Inside the 10: 38 carries, 14 TDs
Inside the 5: 19 carries, 10 TDs

There is not a lot to gleam from a run-based offense that lost three running backs to season-ending injuries before Week 1, benched the one good option it had (Ty'Son Williams) and rolled out three retread backs (Latavius Murray, Devonta Freeman and Le'Veon Bell) most weeks. The uncertainty regarding the returns of J.K. Dobbins (ACL) and Gus Edwards (ACL) further muddies the picture, but it is safe to say the Ravens are probably more likely to repeat their 2020 rushing production inside the 20 (94 carries, 19 TDs), the 10 (54, 16) and the 5 (21, 11) than last year's.

Buffalo
Inside the 20: 103 carries, 19 TDs
Inside the 10: 56 carries, 16 TDs
Inside the 5: 20 carries, 11 TDs

Not all great offenses are guaranteed a lot of red zone opportunities. The Bills did not have a shortage by any means, but the way they distributed them was the problem for fantasy managers - outside of those invested in Josh Allen. While the addition of James Cook is highly unlikely to affect Devin Singletary or Zack Moss' rush attempts in scoring territory, it should also be noted that 21 of Singletary's 38 red zone carries (and five of his six TDs, four of which came from six yards or closer) inside the 20 came on Thanksgiving night or after.

Carolina
Inside the 20: 70 carries, 15 TDs
Inside the 10: 37 carries, 11 TDs
Inside the 5: 15 carries, 6 TDs

It has been a while since we have seen Christian McCaffrey at the height of his powers, but it is worth mentioning that he handled over 80 percent of the Panthers' rushing attempts inside the 20, 10 and 5 during his last full season (2019). While those numbers seem likely to come down a bit with D'Onta Foreman in town, they probably will not come down by much. Perhaps a return to his 2018 percentages (57.1 inside the 20, 63 inside the 10 and 57.1 inside the 5) is a reasonable place to set his floor in those areas of the field in 2022.

Chicago
Inside the 20: 83 carries, 12 TDs
Inside the 10: 47 carries, 11 TDs
Inside the 5: 21 carries, 10 TDs

How much stock can we put into usage numbers and percentages from a Matt Nagy offense? For one, Justin Fields' contributions are ridiculously low for a player with his athleticism. Another thing to consider as the Bears' offense enters their first year under new OC Luke Getsy is if he will adopt the Green Bay model of relying heavily on two backs. Montgomery seems likely to hold onto his work inside the 5, but fantasy managers should not expect a repeat of his sizable red zone edge over Khalil Herbert (43-8).

Cincinnati
Inside the 20: 58 carries, 13 TDs
Inside the 10: 36 carries, 11 TDs
Inside the 5: 20 carries, 7 TDs

Unlike most teams with low red zone attempt numbers, the Bengals had a good offense in 2021 - one that was more reliant on big plays and a kicker (Evan McPherson) than most. A large part of that was a product of an offensive line that Cincinnati knew was not very good. With a much-improved front five this season, is it fair to wonder if Joe Mixon's usage in scoring territory spikes and the offense relies less on big plays? Last year's usage marks inside the 20, 10 and 5 surprisingly put him in the Najee Harris class (around 70 percent).

Cleveland
Inside the 20: 88 carries, 16 TDs
Inside the 10: 43 carries, 14 TDs
Inside the 5: 19 carries, 10 TDs

The year Kareem Hunt arrived and played only eight games for the Browns (2019), Chubb handled more than 74 percent of the work inside the 20, 10 and 5. In 2020, Hunt owned a slight edge in percentage of work inside the 20 (he played 16 games to Chubb's 12), while Chubb got the better of Hunt inside the 10 and 5. Last season, Chubb got about half of the team's red zone work as he played 14 games to Hunt's eight (six if we consider he was barely involved in the two games he played after returning from his Week 6 calf injury). When both were healthy entering games last year (Weeks 1-6), Chubb held slim edges in carries inside the 20 (24-15), 10 (10-7) and 5 (8-4). The degree to which this distribution holds up in 2022 likely depends on how many games Deshaun Watson plays versus how many Jacoby Brissett starts. A run-heavy approach under Brissett would likely continue a 60/40 kind of split in red zone work with Hunt rarely ever seeing work as a receiver. While he isn't Captain Checkdown by any stretch, Watson could help Hunt retain the same kind of fantasy value he has enjoyed in years past.

Dallas
Inside the 20: 71 carries, 13 TDs
Inside the 10: 31 carries, 10 TDs
Inside the 5: 20 carries, 9 TDs

Tony Pollard may be a threat to Ezekiel Elliott's workload over the first 80 yards of the field, but Zeke is in the James Conner class over the final 20. Most notably, Elliott - who was playing on a bum knee for roughly 75 percent of the season, handled 60 percent of the rushing work inside the 5. Dak Prescott essentially tripled Pollard's workload inside the 10 (28.1-9.4 percent) and doubled him up inside the 5 (20-10). Pollard's likely bump in playing time this year likely makes him a nice value in the seventh round of PPR leagues, but Elliott figures to be a screaming value in any draft where he is still available in the fourth round.

Denver
Inside the 20: 81 carries, 13 TDs
Inside the 10: 47 carries, 11 TDs
Inside the 5: 20 carries, 7 TDs

It is anyone's guess if new HC Nathaniel Hackett sticks with the plan established last year by former OC Pat Shurmur, but his recent history with Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon in Green Bay suggests Melvin Gordon and Javonte Williams are in for another year of splitting work in some fashion. Williams was slightly more involved in the passing game overall last season, while Gordon had a slight edge in red zone work. Amazingly, both backs finished with the same number of rush attempts inside the 10 (21) and 5 (nine). Fantasy managers also need to prepare for the possibility that a Russell Wilson-centric offense drives Denver's red zone rushing numbers (particularly rush attempts) down across the board.

Detroit
Inside the 20: 53 carries, 8 TDs
Inside the 10: 29 carries, 7 TDs
Inside the 5: 11 carries, 5 TDs

D'Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams each played 13 games in 2021, so the similarity in their rushing work inside the 20, 10 and 5 should not come as a surprise. It is the overall team numbers that are shocking. Fifty-three rush attempts inside the 20, 29 inside the 10 and 11 inside the 5 are pathetic numbers and representative of a team that struggled to stay healthy, especially up front. Better injury luck on the offensive line - and a more competitive defense - could allow Detroit to rival what Denver did in the running game (red zone) last season.

Green Bay
Inside the 20: 86 carries, 13 TDs
Inside the 10: 43 carries, 13 TDs
Inside the 5: 20 carries, 11 TDs

The Packers had a ridiculously low four players run the ball in the red zone last year, which partly explains how they had two players inside the top 19 in rush attempts inside the 20. There is probably not much to be read into Dillon holding a slight edge across the board since Jones missed two games and Dillon suited up for all 17. More volume didn't seem to matter anyway, as Jones nearly matched Dillon in the touchdown department in all three areas (20, 10, 5). Given the absence of Davante Adams in 2022 and beyond, Green Bay may become even more run-heavy in the red zone.

Houston
Inside the 20: 54 carries, 7 TDs
Inside the 10: 28 carries, 6 TDs
Inside the 5: 10 carries, 3 TDs

Fantasy managers avoided the Texans' backfield for good reason in 2021. One of the reasons was how pathetic the offense was as a whole last season. Another key factor was how the backfield workload was distributed. It is clear Ingram was the hammer before he was traded to New Orleans since he nearly led the team in most of the red zone categories despite playing only seven games. If new OC Pep Hamilton takes a similar approach, Dameon Pierce is the most likely candidate to fill Ingram's role. How much it will matter in what figures to be a limited offense again this year is another question.

Indianapolis
Inside the 20: 106 carries, 17 TDs
Inside the 10: 52 carries, 16 TDs
Inside the 5: 31 carries, 13 TDs

Jonathan Taylor is an elite talent, but it certainly helped his cause last year that he had 39 more rush attempts than any other player inside the 20, 11 more inside the 10 and 10 more inside the 5. To put his numbers (85 attempts inside the 20, 41 inside the 10 and 26 inside the 5) into perspective: no player since at least 1994 rivaled Taylor's attempts inside the 20. Furthermore, LeGarrette Blount was the last player to top 41 carries inside the 10 (2016) and Arian Foster was the last player to record at least 26 rush attempts inside the 5 (2012). With Matt Ryan offering a bit more stability at the position than Carson Wentz, look for Taylor's attempts to take a significant hit inside scoring range.

Jacksonville
Inside the 20: 57 carries, 12 TDs
Inside the 10: 33 carries, 12 TDs
Inside the 5: 18 carries, 10 TDs

James Robinson's efficiency - especially when compared to Jonathan Taylor's - is yet another reminder of how underrated he is. The Jaguars' offense figures to be significantly better in 2022, but the question remains as to how Jacksonville will move forward while it waits for Robinson to get back to full strength from his Achilles injury. The most obvious answer is Travis Etienne, but one has to wonder if the Jaguars will take a bit off of his plate as an inside runner given his 205-pound frame when they traded up to get 220-pound Snoop Conner. Trevor Lawrence is also a gifted runner, which means Etienne might need to be a master of efficiency (or score on a lot of explosive plays, which is a possibility) to amass more than six or seven rushing TDs.

Kansas City
Inside the 20: 79 carries, 15 TDs
Inside the 10: 44 carries, 15 TDs
Inside the 5: 22 carries, 10 TDs

It seems almost unthinkable a team like the Chiefs rivaled the Packers and eclipsed the Cowboys in terms of volume and scoring in the red zone as a rushing offense. One of the biggest differences between Kansas City and the other two is that 11 players got involved as rushers in 2021. Will this be the year that Clyde Edwards-Helaire is healthy enough (or able to earn the trust of his coaches) to step forward as a red zone threat? Will Ronald Jones become the new Darrel Williams and push CEH to the sideline in the red zone, particularly near the goal line? The smart money is on Edwards-Helaire, although HC Andy Reid suggested this spring that Jones would get an opportunity to earn significant time this season. If Jones ends up impressing in camp, he is a powerful enough runner to be the primary goal-line back.

Austin Ekeler

LA Chargers
Inside the 20: 100 carries, 18 TDs
Inside the 10: 52 carries, 15 TDs
Inside the 5: 23 carries, 9 TDs

Despite being an offense centered around Justin Herbert, the Chargers were one of four teams with at least 100 red zone carries, one of six teams with at least 50 rush attempts inside the 10 and one of seven with at least 23 carries inside the 5. Considering Isaiah Spiller should be a substantial upgrade to Joshua Kelley, Larry Rountree III and Justin Jackson as an inside runner, there is plenty of reason to believe Austin Ekeler will not rank inside the top 10 in carries inside the 20, 10 and 5 again. Fantasy managers of Ekeler probably don't have to fear a return to the early days of his career when Melvin Gordon took a lot of meaningful touches from him, but a repeat of 2019 (224 touches, 11 total TDs) - he only played 10 games in 2020 - is much more likely than last season (276, 20).

LA Rams
Inside the 20: 82 carries, 10 TDs
Inside the 10: 40 carries, 9 TDs
Inside the 5: 14 carries, 7 TDs

Perhaps the most surprising stat of this entire piece is Sony Michel finishing in a tie for third with Dalvin Cook in carries inside the 20 (45). What becomes clear after looking at the Rams' team totals inside the 10 and 5 last year is that HC Sean McVay leaned much more on the pass (specifically Cooper Kupp) when his offense moved closer to the goal line. Was that a function of losing Robert Woods and his solid blocking? Possibly. McVay has typically been a fan of trusting his running game in scoring territory throughout his time in LA, so it seems reasonable to believe Cam Akers is in a good spot to go 40-20-10 inside the 20/10/5 if he can stay healthy.

Las Vegas
Inside the 20: 74 carries, 14 TDs
Inside the 10: 37 carries, 12 TDs
Inside the 5: 20 carries, 10 TDs

While Jacobs' efficiency inside the 5 was certainly noteworthy last year, there is a high probability that none of the Raiders' information above means anything for fantasy managers in 2022. The trade for Davante Adams figures to change the Raiders' approach near the goal line considerably, while the selection of Zamir White signals the new regime wants a different type of runner than Jacobs handling the money touches. (The Athletic's Vic Tafur recently suggested that new HC Josh McDaniels already sees the rookie as a superior option to Jacobs and Kenyan Drake.) At the very least, McDaniels' history points toward a committee approach at running back, even near the goal line.

Miami
Inside the 20: 68 carries, 11 TDs
Inside the 10: 43 carries, 11 TDs
Inside the 5: 23 carries, 9 TDs

Except for the mention of Josh Jacobs, we can take most of the first sentence from the preceding paragraph and apply it to the Dolphins. Numerous injuries made Miami look like a committee backfield inside the 5, while Myles Gaskin had a significant edge over any of his teammates inside the 20 and 10. There is a good chance he will not make the team this season. Given the new HC Mike McDaniel's background with the 49ers, there is a decent chance Sony Michel ends up as his hammer inside the 5 - especially if Raheem Mostert gets hurt yet again. Chase Edmonds would appear to be a longshot to handle more than 20 red zone carries as a result.

Minnesota
Inside the 20: 83 carries, 9 TDs
Inside the 10: 48 carries, 8 TDs
Inside the 5: 17 carries, 5 TDs

While the Vikings are yet another team dealing with a coaching change, the biggest difference for them regarding the red zone in 2022 figures to be the number of opportunities they get there. Minnesota was one of the few teams to run more than it passed inside the 20 last year (83 rushes versus 70 targets), so the arrival of new HC Kevin O'Connell figures to flip those two numbers at the very least. For as long as he can stay healthy, Cook should easily handle at least 60 percent of the rushing work inside the 20, 10 and 5. He broke 50 percent last year despite missing four games.

New Orleans
Inside the 20: 76 carries, 10 TDs
Inside the 10: 31 carries, 7 TDs
Inside the 5: 15 carries, 4 TDs

The retirement of HC Sean Payton muddies the picture considerably, but the smart money is on the Saints sticking to their run-centric ways of recent years - especially with a head coach with a defensive background now in charge (Dennis Allen). Further muddying the picture is what appears to be a significant looming suspension for Alvin Kamara. Those two factors point toward Mark Ingram, Taysom Hill and possibly UDFA Abram Smith handling the bulk of the red zone work for the first half of the season (or whenever Kamara returns from the potential suspension).

New England
Inside the 20: 93 carries, 22 TDs
Inside the 10: 50 carries, 19 TDs
Inside the 5: 24 carries, 14 TDs

The Patriots' ability to repeat the gaudy production above will likely come down to the answers to two key questions: 1) how well will presumptive OC Matt Patricia run an offense and 2) how willing will Patricia be to turn the offense over to Mac Jones? Because the defense will probably take a step back in 2022, the likelihood is that game script will keep New England from repeating last year's red zone rushing production anyway. The additions of receivers such as DeVante Parker should lead to more balance and a potential drop in the reliance on the running game inside the 20, 10 and 5. With that said, the running game will not be forgotten or abandoned as long as HC Bill Belichick is walking the sidelines in New England, so expect any volume drop-off to be minimal.

NY Giants
Inside the 20: 45 carries, 8 TDs
Inside the 10: 23 carries, 7 TDs
Inside the 5: 11 carries, 4 TDs

The Giants were never a good bet to be a dynamic offense last year, but Saquon Barkley's injury woes tanked whatever hope they had. A healthy Barkley in 2022 could easily surpass the team numbers above by himself, especially with an improved offensive line and better play-calling (former OC Jason Garrett out, new HC Brian Daboll in). For some perspective on what Barkley can do in a full season, he handled 68.1 percent of the team's red zone work in the red zone (75 percent inside the 10, 80 percent inside the 5) as a rookie. He was well over 50 percent the following year despite missing three games.

NY Jets
Inside the 20: 71 carries, 13 TDs
Inside the 10: 46 carries, 12 TDs
Inside the 5: 27 carries, 11 TDs

Considering the upgrades New York made this offseason, it is hard to imagine the Jets finishing with less than 80-85 red zone rush attempts in 2022. They should be far more efficient as well. Breece Hall should handle about half - if not 60 percent - of the work and close to 70 percent inside the 5. Fantasy managers should not discount the possibility of Michael Carter stealing a fair amount of work in scoring territory from the rookie, but Hall should have no problem giving Gang Green the physical presence Tevin Coleman was supposed to provide last season.

Philadelphia
Inside the 20: 104 carries, 24 TDs
Inside the 10: 70 carries, 23 TDs
Inside the 5: 36 carries, 18 TDs

Only the Colts (106-104) ran more inside the 20 than the Eagles. No team came all that close to Philadelphia in rush attempts inside the 10 (70) and 5 (36). Do not expect a repeat of any of those feats, primarily because the Eagles made a clear statement - with their pass-heavy approach to begin last season and trade for A.J. Brown this offseason - they want to throw. Running inside the red zone will remain a big part of the offense with Jalen Hurts as the quarterback, but fantasy managers hoping for a repeat of production inside the 20/10/5 from any member of this backfield will likely be disappointed. Not only will the volume take a big hit, but the gaudy 23/32/50 percent conversion rates (inside the 20/10/5) Philadelphia enjoyed last year are also highly unlikely to be repeated.

Pittsburgh
Inside the 20: 41 carries, 9 TDs
Inside the 10: 23 carries, 9 TDs
Inside the 5: 15 carries, 7 TDs

To give the Steelers' red zone numbers some perspective, eight individual running backs eclipsed (or at least matched) what Pittsburgh did as a team in the red zone in 2021. No team rushed less inside the 20 or 10 than the Steelers, and only a handful of teams rushed less than they did inside the 5. If anything could be construed as good news, it would be that Najee Harris saw at least two-thirds of the rushing work in those three areas. That is extremely unlikely to change much, although it could take a slight hit if Mitchell Trubisky enjoys some early success on RPOs near the goal line.

San Francisco
Inside the 20: 59 carries, 18 TDs
Inside the 10: 38 carries, 15 TDs
Inside the 5: 14 carries, 9 TDs

It is unlikely that a team matches what Philadelphia did in the red zone last season, but the 49ers may be the best bet to do so. While Trey Lance figures to prove he is a better (and more complete) quarterback than Jalen Hurts, HC Kyle Shanahan loves to set a physical tone. After San Francisco invested another Day 2 pick into a running back to add to Elijah Mitchell and a dynamic run threat at quarterback, odds are Shanahan may not be overly interested in throwing very often in scoring territory. There is a strong likelihood that Lance (much like Hurts) leads the Niners in rushing scores in 2022.

Seattle
Inside the 20: 58 carries, 13 TDs
Inside the 10: 30 carries, 10 TDs
Inside the 5: 19 carries, 9 TDs

As many fantasy league winners can attest, Rashaad Penny got it rolling at the right time. That was particularly true inside the 20. Beginning in Week 13, Penny handled 13 of his 16 red zone carries for the season. There are multiple problems with hopping aboard the hype train with him, even though he should be the primary runner in scoring territory:

1) Last year's mediocre offense lost Russell Wilson and LT Duane Brown. It gained Drew Lock, Noah Fant and a pair of rookie tackles,
2) Penny has not shown an ability to stay healthy for any length of time as a pro,
3) Rookie Kenneth Walker is more explosive and
4) Last year's season-ending stretch came against a host of bad run defenses.

Especially when focusing on the first of the four problems above, there is a very real chance Seattle struggles to amass 50 red zone rush attempts in 2022.

Tampa Bay
Inside the 20: 72 carries, 14 TDs
Inside the 10: 51 carries, 14 TDs
Inside the 5: 20 carries, 10 TDs

Fantasy managers would have paid good money to know Leonard Fournette was going to get as much work across the board as Alvin Kamara and be more efficient with it at this time last year. The arrow appears to point toward more monster production from Fournette as a runner since Ronald Jones is gone and fourth-round rookie Rachaad White should be more of a threat to Gio Bernard's receiving role than Fournette's rushing workload in 2022. Further enhancing Fournette's outlook is the likelihood that Tampa Bay leans a bit more on the run under new HC Todd Bowles than it did under former HC Bruce Arians, particularly since Chris Godwin (ACL) could be limited over the first half of the season.

Tennessee
Inside the 20: 81 carries, 18 TDs
Inside the 10: 43 carries, 17 TDs
Inside the 5: 22 carries, 12 TDs

Derrick Henry was done for the year on Halloween and D'Onta Foreman did not attempt his first red zone run until November, which should give readers some idea as to what could have been for the two-time rushing champion. Henry handled at least two-thirds of the rushing work for Tennessee inside the 20/10/5 in 2019 and 2020 and was well on his way to doing it again before a foot injury knocked him out for the final nine games. Without A.J. Brown around, there is a strong possibility Henry will be asked to pick up where he left off last season. Was the foot injury a sign his body is starting to crack under the heavy workloads he has assumed recently or a one-off?

Washington
Inside the 20: 74 carries, 13 TDs
Inside the 10: 44 carries, 11 TDs
Inside the 5: 22 carries, 9 TDs

It seems almost unfathomable that Antonio Gibson was responsible for well over 50 percent of the Commanders' rushing attempts inside the 20/10/5. Part of the reason for that may be the fact he scored a touchdown on the ground in only five of his 16 outings in 2021. Making matters worse for his 2022 prospects: rookie Brian Robinson Jr. is arguable more physical than Gibson is. He was also drafted with an eye on keeping Gibson fresh. Using the 225-pound Alabama product near the goal line seems like the best way to use his talents and preserve Gibson, which may only serve to make the latter even more hit-or-miss than he has been through his first two seasons.


Rushing | Receiving

Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.





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