Byes – None Until Week 5

Truths

“For here we are not afraid to follow truth wherever it may lead …” - Thomas Jefferson

1) Injuries frequently determine fantasy champions.

True. After Week 1, we hoped for a quiet Week 2, but it didn’t happen. Even before play began, the Eagles announced A.J. Brown would miss the Monday night game. Bad news, but at least Philadelphia didn’t wait until 7pm on the night of the game giving fantasy owners a chance to adjust lineups… I’m looking directly at you 49ers!

Cooper Kupp, Isiah Pacheco, Joe Mixon, Tank Bigsby, Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Jefferson, Graham Gano, Deebo Samuel, Rachaad White and Tyjae Spears were among those who missed some time during the game. Obviously some are more significant to fantasy owners than other. You will have to check for updates again this week to see if your guy will play in Week 3.

2) Most fantasy owners are disappointed at their team’s production.

Also true. With a few exceptions (Baker Mayfield, Derek Carr, Kyler Murray and Sam Darnold), touchdown passes are significantly down through two games. I believe there are two primary causes from the drop is the passing game. First, is the lack of preseason work done by many teams. Whether through NFLPA or coaches decisions there is less practice each year. The passing game takes time to gel. Secondly, most defenses are playing “two-deep” in the secondary, preventing the long strike and making offenses put together long drives.

3) Speaking of Mayfield, is he for real?

His 27.6 FPts/G average is by far the highest of his career (currently No.1 in the NFL) and the first time over 20 FPts/G since his rookie year in Cleveland. I believe this version of Mayfield is here for the remainder of the season. Mike Evans is Mr. Reliable and Chris Godwin is healthy and has returned to peak form. Add in Rachaad White’s ability in the passing game and you have three solid pass receiving options. Now, throw in a mature Mayfield (you don’t see his goofy commercials every 5 minutes anymore, do you?) and he may have found the formula for success.

4) The true definition of a handcuff is running back Jordan Mason.

Fact. A handcuff isn’t just the next guy on the depth chart. It’s a guy on the depth chart who can adequately fill in for the starter. He may not be exactly as productive, but he’ll keep your fantasy hopes alive. Christian McCaffrey led the league in 2023 averaging 24.7 FPts/G and through two games his backup, Mason, is averaging 19.8 FPts/G. Not equal, but currently seventh among all RBs. You won’t find the same thing in the Chiefs running back room.

5) The loss of Isiah Pacheco will actually help struggling Travis Kelce.

Strangely, true. Kelce has been invisible for two games, producing a total of four catches for 39 yards and zero touchdowns. But with the loss of their best running back, I see Patrick Mahomes using Kelce as a valuable first-down tool to get the Chiefs going. Short passes for 4-5 yards will help set up drives and he’ll break some for longer gains. Mahomes comes off the lowest yardage total of his career in which he played a full game, but the team will need him to be dynamic until they can find a running game again. All the Chiefs receivers should see increased work, but Kelce should see the most. If you can “buy low” on Kelce, by all means try to obtain his services.

Lies

“Beware of the “half-truth.” You may have gotten hold of the wrong half.” - Unknown source

1) You will be able to find a Chiefs’ running back to replace Isiah Pacheco until he returns.

False. Six years ago, Kareem Hunt might have filled the role, but it’s not 2018 when he averaged 20.9 FPts/G before being dismissed from the team. Last season, in a limited role for Cleveland, he averaged 3.0 ypc on about 10 touches per game. Carson Steele, Samaje Perine and Clyde Edwards-Helaire all have some good qualities (OK, maybe not CEH), but none will completely take over the Pacheco role. Don’t use too much FAAB money on their pickup.

2) It is Lamar Jackson’s fault the Baltimore Ravens are 0-2.

You funny. If Isaiah Likely wears white shoes instead of black ones the Ravens are 1-1. And if Jackson doesn’t lateral the ball on the last play against the Raiders, he was maybe one spin move from taking it all the way to the house. Jackson is fifth in passing yards (520),first in QB rushing yards (167) and third overall with 25.4 FPts/G. That’s with a porous offensive line in front of him and a defense which gave up a 10-point lead with 10 minutes remaining in the game. Jackson and his favorite receiver Zay Flowers are must starts.

3) I’m happy with the usage for Derrick Henry, Saints No.1 wideout Chris Olave and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.

One hundred-percent false. You replaced J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards with Henry and then give him just 16 touches per game? Nope. Unacceptable. I also know that New Orleans has scored 91 points in two weeks, but don’t let your elite receiver start to mope and whine. Eight targets in two games is not enough. Lastly, Thomas Jr. may be as talented as Marvin Harrison Jr. so why has Gabe Davis seen more targets? Feed these guys.

4) The tight end position has done nothing and the future is bleak.

False. Although he has yet to score his first touchdown, rookie Brock Bowers is everything they said he would be. He’s caught 15-of 17 targets (88.2%) for 156 yards and is ranked No.2 at the moment, behind Week 1 sensation Likely. No tight end has more than one touchdown, so no matter who you start, he has a chance to move up quickly. Besides the usual suspects (Kelce, George Kittle, Sam LaPorta etc.) keep these two names in mind – Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki. The two are getting the opportunities, and should continue to produce.

5) The “kicker balls” that officials bring out for field goal attempts must have helium in them.

That’s my personal conspiracy theory, but I really think kickers are just better, stronger and more accurate. Fifty-yard kicks are what 45-yarders used to be. Through two weekends, kickers are have made 35 50+ field goals on just 39 attempts. That a stunning 89.7 percent! Ka’imi Fairbairn is 6-for-6, Chris Boswell is 4-for-4 and last years’ best kicker, Brandon Aubrey is 3-for-3 and 8-for-8 overall. If your kicker has disappointed you so far, don’t be afraid to find a hot kicker on the waiver wire.

6) Bonus – Andy Dalton replacing Bryce Young makes Diontae Johnson a fantasy-worthy starter.

Whoa, slow down there. I need to see who Dalton favors before I’m ready to put the former Steelers wideout in the starting lineup. But one of Johnson, rookie Xavier Legette or veteran Adam Thielen is likely to gain starter status with this change. You can start one of them in Week 3 if you feel lucky. “Do you feel lucky, punk? (For you young people out there that’s a quote from the original Dirty Harry movie.)