The tight end position has seen a drastic
change over the past decade. From a position once dominated by one
or two players to a position of relative equality.
Where once you could gain a significant advantage by choosing
one of the top-two tight ends, to 2023 when there was almost no
significant difference between any of the top-seven. So it’s
no longer an option for owners with a late draft position to jump
on the best tight end.
Look at the first chart below. Drafting the best tight end used
to give you an advantage. Rob Gronkowski, Jimmy Graham in his
prime and Travis Kelce used to be worth the early selection. In
2022, Kelce was worth almost a touchdown over every other tight
end. Since 2017 drafting an early elite tight end was almost always
worth the price.
Kelce took a step backwards and the rest of the league caught
him. There were six players within 2.1 FPts/G of Kelce. Part of
Kelce’s drop was the emergence of wideout Rashee Rice. This
past off-season the Chiefs spent a first-round choice on speedster
Xavier Worthy and in preseason he has looked every bit the wide
receiver stud Kansas City hoped he would be. For this reason,
I’m not expecting a return to All-World status for the Chiefs
veteran tight end. Oh sure, he’ll still be top-five, but
he’s no longer worth jumping up with first or second-round
selection to grab a big positional advantage.
Let’s look at those six guys behind Kelce to see if any
can pass him in 2024.
T.J. Hockenson took advantage of 8.5 targets-per-game to close
in on Kelce. But he’s going to miss games to start the season
and what will he do with Sam Darnold at the controls? There is
no way you can expect continued improvement from the Vikings’
tight end based on his quarterback’s visible talent.
Sam LaPorta, on the other hand, was just a rookie when he produced
the third-best total at the position. He was quite efficient on
his seven targets-a-game, producing almost 900 yards and a position-high
10 touchdowns. There is some concern on my part whether he can
reproduce double-digit touchdowns on a team with weapons like;
Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams, David Montgomery and Jahmyr
Gibbs. I see slightly improved yards, but a 25% reduction in touchdowns,
leaving him still in the top-10, but closer to the bottom than
the top.
Evan Engram had a career-year in 2023. He produced 114 receptions
for 963 yards and 13.8 FPts/G… all personal-best numbers.
He also saw a position-high 143 targets, something that is unlikely
to re-occur.
Mark Andrews managed to play just 10 games last season and some
of them he was less than 100%. Still, he finished fifth in FPts/G
and 15th in total fantasy points. He’s Lamar Jackson’s
favorite target, particularly near the end zone where he saw a
team-high 14 red zone targets in those 10 games. I’m expecting
an improved statistical year from Andrews in 2024.
David Njoku will bring an interesting dilemma to fantasy owners.
His best production in 2023 was with Joe Flacco under center.
Flacco is no longer in Cleveland and starter Deshaun Watson continues
to be a question mark. Did watching the Flacco-to-Njoku success
give a road map to Watson and OC Alex Van Pelt or will Njoku return
to his early season disappearing act? I think this is the first
2023 top-10 tight end to drop off the list in 2024.
The 49ers’ George Kittle is a do-everything guy, who sometimes
gets lost in all the skill-position talent in San Francisco. He’ll
disappear, fantasy-wise, for a few games, then explode when the
team remembers how talented he is. In 2023 he had six games of
six points or below and four games of 20 points or more, including
three in a row between Weeks 8-10. Depending on how the 49ers’
receiver room ends up (Brandon Aiyuk situation), Kittle could
be in for more work.
Finally, Trey McBride’s
2023 was a tale of two seasons. From Weeks 1-5 he averaged 3.2 FPts/G.
From Week 6 to the end of the season he produced 13.8 FPts/G. We
are all expecting to see the “second-half guy,” but beware of over
drafting McBride based on his preseason hype, because of how the
addition of No.4 overall selection, Marvin Harrison Jr. he might
change McBride’s target share.
Who might crack the top-10 in 2024 at the tight end position?
Kincaid put up solid rookie numbers (73-673-2), though he was
overshadowed by another rookie - LaPorta. Kincaid’s talent,
plus what should be additional workload could easily push the
Bills’ tight end into the top-10. He was 13th last season,
averaging 9.5 FPts/G, and with wideouts Stefon Diggs and Gabe
Davis wearing different uniforms in 2024, there should be a significant
increase in Kincaid’s target share (15.7%). He should easily
surpass his 5.7 targets-per-game of 2023.
Ferguson was a reliable target for Dak Prescott whenever defenses
amassed around CeeDee Lamb. From Week 8 on, he averaged 6.6 targets
and 10.9 FPts/G. And of course he was Dak’s favorite target
in the Wild Card game hauling in 10 of 12 targets for 93 yards
and three touchdowns. Given the question mark surrounding Lamb’s
contract and the apparent weakness at the No.3 receiver spot,
Ferguson could see additional work in the season.
For the last two years we have waited for Pitts to explode. Could
this finally be the season? The obvious reason he could finally
blossom is a quality veteran quarterback under center in Kirk
Cousins. After three seasons of inferior quarterback play, we
should finally see Pitts reach his potential. Whether that is
top-10 worthy remains to be seen. He will certainly have to produce
more touchdowns if he’s to be a top-10 tight end option.
He has just six touchdowns in three seasons and that won’t
cut it.
