The real world has great moments, bad moments and everything in between. It’s for those bad moments and many boring in between moments which we find ourselves jumping to the fantasy world for enjoyment.

Over the past week, ESPN published a top-10 list of quarterbacks based on the opinion of some GMs, coaches and scouts. As a fan of a team, this is an interesting exercise as to where your quarterback is rated. The box at the bottom of the page shows their top-10 and their three honorable mentions. But remember, the people who were asked the question, were looking at quarterbacks based on their point of view – winning football games. When quarterbacks win games, GMs, coaches and scouts get to keep their jobs.

Notice that the results from management personnel were quite conservative. Only one quarterback has played less than 50 games. They hate the unknown. Only two of the 13 quarterbacks mentioned have career losing records – Matthew Stafford and Justin Herbert. Stafford played on some really, really bad Detroit Lions teams and he’s 41-41 in three years with the Los Angeles Rams. Herbert is every GM’s “Golden Boy.” However, he has yet to prove he can lead a team to becoming top tier.

Of course, wins and losses are more of a team category than an individual player category. It’s similar to wins and losses for MLB pitchers. You can shut down the other team, but if your offense doesn’t score a run, you can’t win the game. In 2010, “King” Felix Hernandez won the AL Cy Young award with a 2.27 ERA, 1.057 WHIP and allowed just 63 runs in 34 starts. His won/loss record was barely over .500 (13-12) because of lack of support by the Seattle offense.

In the NFL you can put up 30 points a game, but if your defense doesn’t show up, winning is going to be difficult. In 2019 Jameis Winston led the league in passing yards (5,109) and passing touchdowns (33 and INTs with 30), but his team finished 7-9 and allowed 28.1 PPG which ranked 29th of 32 teams.

In 1997, Jeff George led the league in passing yards (3,917), threw 29 touchdown passes to just nine interceptions… and his Oakland Raiders went 4-12. The Raiders defense gave up 419 points and ranked 28th of 30 teams.

But we aren’t here for the “real” world. And we don’t really care whether our fantasy quarterback wins the game or loses the game, only that he puts up fantasy points.

Look at the column on the far right. Its FFToday.com projections. Four of the quarterbacks the GMs picked as a top-10 player, didn’t make our projected top-10. In fact, three were ranked 19th or lower. Meanwhile, the three honorable mention quarterbacks were all top-12.

In our projections, half of the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks didn’t make the GM’s list. Let’s look at those six and see if we can find out why management doesn’t trust them despite them being top options for fantasy owners.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia

Which Hurts is the real one? In 2022 he was elite and last season he was barely above average. He averaged 28.5 FPts/G in 2022 and 25.6 last season and was ranked second at the position only because of 15 rushing touchdowns. He won’t have future Hall of Fame center Jason Kelce. But Hurts was dealing with a knee injury for most of last season. He still has his three elite pass catchers in A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert and they added running back Saquon Barkley to the lineup who has averaged 4.5 receptions for his career. We think Hurts returns to elite fantasy production.

Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis

Richardson has three and a quarter career games under his belt. No GM is going to put him in the top-10. He accounted for seven touchdowns in three-plus games, rushing for four scores and throwing for three more. He’ll have Jonathan Taylor to distract defenses this time (he was injured at the start of last season). Michael Pittman Jr. has become a sure bet and the team added rookie Adonai Mitchell to Josh Downs and Alec Pierce. He has a lot of potential. Of course, potential gets GMs fired if they don’t pan out. If he doesn’t pan out for your fantasy team you get to come back next season to try again. We have him ranked eighth with the third-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco

Strike one… he’s only started 21 games. GM’s don’t trust young, inexperienced players. They like long track records. Strike two… The receiving corps appears to be in flux. Is their 2023 leading receiver, Brandon Aiyuk (1,150 yards and 7 TDs), staying or going? Might Deebo Samuel be traded? What impact will rookie Ricky Pearsall have, particularly if one of last year’s starters is traded? George Kittle posted a career high in yards-per-catch, but saw his touchdown production cut almost in half. We aren’t scared of these factors as this offense is still a juggernaut and will be until they have to give Purdy a monster contract. Plus Christian McCaffrey is always a huge plus in the passing game.

Kyler Murray, Arizona

The question for the Cardinals and fantasy owners is how well will the receiving corps play? The assumption is that Marvin Harrison Jr. will be as good as his dad. But most rookie receivers get off to a slow start adapting to the speed of the game and strength of opposing cornerbacks. He isn’t playing Illinois and Rutgers anymore. Also, can Trey McBride repeat last season (81-825-3)? Who among Zay Jones, Greg Dortch and Michael Wilson will step up to be a satisfactory No.2 wideout? Murray has averaged just 21.4 FPts/G over the past two seasons after producing 28.2 and 25.5 the previous two seasons. He’s understandably running less after his torn ACL and he may not make it all the way back. Beware here.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville

Unless something changes, you can expect 4,000 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions for Lawrence. He’s been pretty consistent on those totals the past two seasons. The team lost wideout Calvin Ridley, but added Gabe Davis and spent a first-round pick on Brian Thomas Jr. Evan Engram has been a solid tight end receiving option the past two season. We keep waiting for him to explode, but maybe this is just his production level.

Jordan Love, Green Bay

Although it’s his third year on the Packers roster, he’s only started 18 games. And he only played well from November through January. He wasn’t good early on last season going 2-5 with 11 TDs and 8 INTs and 213 passing yards-per-game. His receivers are young and mostly unproven. However, I like his receivers and believe the confidence from the second half and playoffs will help in get off to a quicker start in 2024, particularly against Philadelphia and Indianapolis who had defenses ranked 30th and 28th, respectively. He’s a bottom end of the QB1 list.