A few years ago, I decided to use the final Blitz of the season
to give fantasy managers a sounding board for their toughest lineup
decisions entering their league's fantasy championship game. Given
how well the idea was received initially, it only made sense to
extend it to all three fantasy playoff weeks last year.
Below are seven reader questions (submitted via Twitter
or the FFT
forum) and my answers. PPR scoring should be assumed unless
otherwise noted. Any other special scoring rules will also appear
in the question or immediately thereafter.
treewarden: Half-PPR Flex - Tony Pollard (vs. DET), Nico Collins
(vs. TEN) or Puka Nacua (@ NYG)?
My lineup is:
QB: Jalen Hurts
RB: Jonathan Taylor, Alvin Kamara
WR: Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Brandon Aiyuk
TE: Trey McBride
We should all be so fortunate to have this dilemma. My quick
answer to this question is Nacua, but I want to take a minute
to explain the thought process.
Pollard recently acknowledged he was not as close to 100 percent
earlier in the season as he thought, which helps to explain why
he disappointed so many fantasy managers in September and October.
While he may be as healthy as he has been all season, his biggest
problems now may be that the Dallas defense appears to be struggling
and the Cowboys' Week 17 matchup. Although the Lions have permitted
a handful of big performances to running backs this season, they
rank as the most difficult matchup for running backs. The vast
majority of RB1 efforts they allowed were to backs who are high-volume
receivers in addition to their team's primary bell-cow. While
that description should fit Pollard, his usage in the passing
game has been very hit-or-miss this season for someone who has
52 catches.
Choosing between Collins and Nacua is a bit more difficult because
good receivers have repeatedly gutted the Titans in 2023, but
health at this time of the year is often an important factor in
lineup decisions. Even though Collins played relatively well in
Week 16 against a tough Cleveland secondary, I have my doubts
he will be in midseason form for the Texans' second matchup versus
the Titans in three weeks. There is also some doubt at this point
if C.J. Stroud (concussion) will be ready to return. Even if Stroud
plays (but especially if he does not), I do not think Collins
has earned the benefit of the doubt over a player like Nacua following
last week's effort.
Against a Saints defense that had surrendered only one 20-point
performance to a receiver this season entering Week 16, Nacua
(season-high 33 points) and Demarcus Robinson (20.2) each turned
the trick last time out. For Nacua, his 9-164-1 receiving line
on 11 targets - to go along with two carries for 16 yards - was
the first time he topped eight targets or five catches in a game
since Week 7. Needless to say, it was a performance that was hard
to see coming. However, Nacua's Week 16 effort reestablished his
ability to show a high ceiling with a healthy Cooper Kupp. That
is a big deal moving forward and suggests HC Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford view them as mostly equal partners (even if Kupp was
a bit unlucky on some of his targets). While the Giants have not
given up many huge receiver performances since Week 10, the Rams'
offense is running hot enough at this point that it can capably
support at least two WR1s. That means Nacua's fantasy managers
have very little to worry about in Week 17.
weepaws: Half PPR. Need a QB and a Flex. I currently have Baker
Mayfield (vs. NO) at QB1. Available options include Nick Mullens
(vs. GB), Derek Carr (@ TB) and Jake Browning (@ KC).
RB2 start: Joe Mixon (@ KC) or James Conner (@ PHI)?
Mayfield has shown a surprising ability to maintain a high floor
in 2023, finishing with at least 18.2 fantasy points in nine of
15 outings. The second-best effort of his season came in Week
4 against the Saints (24.9). Very little about the two teams has
changed since then, except for the likelihood Mayfield feels more
comfortable in OC Dave Canales' offense than he did before - as
evidenced by his 76.2 percent completion rate over the last two
weeks (6:0 touchdown-to-interception ratio). Furthermore, Matthew Stafford just diced up the secondary of New Orleans last week.
Mayfield may not be in Stafford's class, but it is hard to imagine
the Saints doing much to slow down the Bucs after they gave up
multiple QB1 efforts against a schedule full of also-rans.
Mullens would not be a consideration for me considering he is
not only at risk of being benched during the game, but also because
he will be without T.J. Hockenson (torn ACL and MCL) and could
be without Jordan Addison (ankle). Browning would also not be
a consideration since he will likely be without Ja'Marr Chase
(shoulder) again. Carr is the best choice for those in constant
search of the best matchup, but consecutive three-touchdown games
- plenty of which came in garbage time - are not enough to outweigh
a season full of mediocrity.
The Chiefs have shown some vulnerability against the run in recent
weeks, giving up 125 total yards (110 rushing) to Josh Jacobs
in Week 12, 87 yards (73) to AJ Dillon in Week 13, 141 (58 on
10 carries) to James Cook in Week 14 and 145 to Zamir White on
Christmas. Unfortunately, we also saw the downside of trusting
Mixon last week as well, although I think that showing by Cincinnati
had a lot to do with Chase's absence. I find it difficult to believe
Mixon will enjoy much success against Kansas City if Chase sits
again. Additionally, good touchdown luck has been the key to keeping
Mixon relevant in fantasy ever since Joe Burrow was lost for the
season in Week 11.
The same can probably be said for Conner since Week 12, but the
difference with him is that he has been far more efficient with
his touches than Mixon - even in some very challenging matchups.
The one advantage Mixon held over Conner was work in the passing
game, but Arizona turned back the clock to the Kliff Kingsbury
era with Conner's usage last week. After ignoring him as a receiver
for most of the season (17 catches for 39 yards entering Week
16), Conner popped off for five receptions, 67 yards and a touchdown
versus the Bears. Since the Eagles are another tough run defense
(as was Chicago), fantasy managers should expect Conner to outperform
Mixon this week.
Rashee Rice (vs. CIN) or Brandin Cooks (vs. DET) for my final
receiver spot?
Which of the "other" players should I use for my flex?
The running back question comes down to Kamara vs. Ekeler since
there may not be more than a handful of backs I would play over
Gibbs this week. If we are interested in answering this question
as efficiently as possible, the answer to Kamara vs. Ekeler boils
down to projected volume versus matchup. The Chargers showed some
fight against the Bills in Week 16, but it is hard to throw much
support behind an Easton Stick-led offense without Keenan Allen.
Ekeler is the least of the Chargers' problems right now, although
it seems obvious at this point he is not getting much help. He
has scored one touchdown in the last six games. He is losing too
much work to Joshua Kelly and Isaiah Spiller. He probably will
fall short of 50 percent of his reception total from last season
(107) and is highly unlikely to hit 500 yards receiving for the
first time in three years. The one feather in his hat this week
is a matchup against Denver, which continues to get hammered by
running backs. The Broncos are also the one team Ekeler enjoyed
success against since the Chargers' season went off the rails
around Week 10. Denver has yielded 20-point fantasy games to running
backs in each of the last three weeks, surrendering 21 to Ekeler
in Week 14, 24.8 to Gibbs in Week 15 and 21 to Ezekiel Elliott
in Week 16. While I would not predict another 20-point effort
for Ekeler this week, he should be a strong RB2 start at worst.
Fantasy managers have seen diminishing returns from Kamara over
the last three weeks. For those who trusted him in Week 16, he
disappointed with 8.5 points against the Rams - with most of those
points coming late. While it is possible Kamara could be wearing
down a bit, last week seems more like a one-off in that his rushing
volume was low and he wasn't able to do much of anything after
the catch. Unfortunately for Kamara and his managers, the Rams
and the Bucs have yielded very similar numbers against running
backs in 2023. Kamara enjoyed a RB1-level performance when Tampa
Bay beat New Orleans in Week 4, but it was on the strength of
13 catches in a game Derek Carr was checking down on seemingly
every other play. I intend to start Kamara in every league I have
him in, but I would not rank him over Gibbs (in a projected shootout)
or Ekeler (in one of the easiest matchups for a running back this
week).
At receiver, I understand the question. Both receivers should
do well. However, when we consider Rice is the overall WR5 over
the last five weeks and outperforming the likes of Amon-Ra St.
Brown in that time, he is a must-start. Rice's 19 points per game
from Week 12 to Week 16 is a higher mark than any single-game
number Cooks has posted over that time. In fact, Cooks has only
delivered one game of more than 19 points all season.
Cooks has been a solid fill-in at times in 2023, but his lack
of consistent targets on a strong offense with a very good quarterback
continues to baffle me. Only three times all season has he topped
five targets and only once has he drawn more than seven. While
the Lions are a juicy matchup considering five receivers have
reached double figures against them in just the last two games,
Kamara could easily see more targets and has the rushing upside
to boot.
bimmer: Half PPR.
QB: Jalen Hurts (vs. ARI) or Justin Fields (vs. ATL)?
RBs: Need two - Joe Mixon (@ KC), D'Andre Swift (vs. ARI), Ty
Chandler (vs. GB)?
WRs: Puka Nacua (@ NYG) or Zay Flowers (vs. MIA)?
TE: Trey McBride (@ PHI) or Isaiah Likely (vs. MIA)?
FLEX: Remaining RBs/WRs/TEs or Drake London (@ CHI)?
Hurts has been good for at least two total touchdowns in 13 of
15 games and faces an Arizona defense that has yielded at least
20 fantasy points to a quarterback in four of its last five contests.
(The one exception was Mitchell Trubisky in Week 13.) The last
three signal-callers to top 20 points against them did so on 33
or fewer pass attempts, which figures to be in the range Hurts
will have in Week 17. Matthew Stafford and Brock Purdy each threw
for four touchdowns, while Fields just posted 267 total yards
and two scores (one rushing) against them last week. The Falcons
have not faced many top-tier quarterbacks, but the one most comparable
to Fields was Kyler Murray (19.3) in Week 10. Perhaps most impressively,
the Falcons have permitted only two passing scores to a quarterback
since Week 9 (Baker Mayfield accounted for both in Week 14). With
D.J. Moore (ankle) ailing, Hurts is the safe (and smart) play.
Since I discussed Mixon earlier, I will move on to Swift. The
ex-Lion finally managed to stop his contribution to the "Brotherly
Shove" campaign by crossing the goal line for a change and
avoiding going down at the 1 yet again in Week 16. (The number
of times Swift has been tripped up at the 1 this season has been
nothing short of amazing, for anyone who did not get my "Brotherly
Shove" comment in the previous sentence.) The Cardinals have
been the league's most forgiving defense against running backs
this season and are coming off a game in which Khalil Herbert
gouged them for 112 yards and a score on 20 carries. While I have
my doubts Swift will get to 20 carries in back-to-back weeks,
I like his chances to be a top 10-15 option at running back this
week. Buying into Chandler requires a bit more faith because the
threat of Alexander Mattison (ankle) being more involved looms.
With that said, can the Vikings really afford to go away from
the one back that has provided some level of explosiveness in
a game they need to have? Green Bay has also proven to be soft
against the run, allowing huge games to Isiah Pacheco, Saquon Barkley and Rachaad White in Weeks 13-15. Chandler may not be
quite on that level, but there is little question in my mind he
possesses more upside this week than Mixon.
Fantasy managers should be prepared for a big falloff this week
from Nacua, if only because I think Matthew Stafford will probably
want to make sure he gets Cooper Kupp going again. I am not so
steadfast in that belief that I could bench Nacua for any non-elite
receiver, however. The Giants have fared reasonably well against
receivers since getting pummeled by Dallas on Thanksgiving, but
it would be a bit disingenuous to say the Commanders, Patriots,
Packers and Saints represent the top tier of NFL passing games.
The Eagles (New York's Week 16 opponent) are struggling - relatively
speaking - and managed to get two of their receivers into double
figures. New Orleans (the Rams' Week 16 opponent) entered last
week with a more sterling resume against receivers and was diced
up by Stafford & Co. The Giants blitz at the second-highest
rate in the league (43.5 percent), which should open up some run-after-catch
opportunities for Nacua. Meanwhile, I am not sure Flowers' slot
rate of 29.9 percent is high enough to convince me he will have
success against Miami. Perimeter corners Xavien Howard and Jalen Ramsey may not be playing at an All-Pro level, but the odds are
slim that Flowers can replicate last week's 9-72-1 line against
them.
It is simple for me at tight end. McBride is the focal point
of the Cardinals' offense. Linebacker play (i.e. coverage) may
also be the weakest part of Philadelphia's defense. Likely should
enjoy low-end TE1 production this week, but the matchup against
the Dolphins is not a great one and certainly not good enough
that I would play him over a target hog like McBride.
At the flex, the Bears are playing too well on defense to make
me believe London will be worth a start on this team - especially
when options like Mixon and Flowers are available. Following a
midseason swoon in which it appeared Baltimore forgot about him,
Flowers' activity has picked up enough over the last four games
to make him worth a start despite what I said a couple of paragraphs
earlier.
jrokh: Amari Cooper (vs. NYJ), Davante Adams (@ IND) or D.J.
Moore (vs. ATL)
There is conflicting information regarding Moore, as speculation
earlier in the week suggested he was dealing with a high-ankle
sprain. However, he was not listed on the team's initial practice
report for Week 17 on Wednesday (Dec. 27). Moore was far too uninvolved
in Week 16 for this injury to be minor. Even if his injury is
somehow a non-issue, there is not a ton of upside in playing him
in Week 17. The Falcons have not yielded a touchdown of any kind
to a receiver since Week 9. A healthy Moore could easily be the
exception to that rule, but his health is too much of a question
mark for me right now.
Cooper is being targeted like an alpha with Joe Flacco under
center. Since getting off to a slow start in their first game
together against the Rams in Week 13, Cooper leads the league
with 37 targets. Eight of those looks came in a difficult matchup
against the Bears two weekends ago (4-109-1) and another 15 came
in what was supposed to be another tough matchup versus the Texans
(11-265-2). I highly doubt the Browns will change what is working
offensively (i.e. Flacco throwing 40-plus times per game) just
because the Jets have a great cornerback duo. Assuming Cooper's
heel injury does not keep him from playing on Thursday, he remains
a must-start.
While the Raiders deserve their flowers for their defensive effort
and the Chiefs deserve some credit for keeping Adams in check
on Christmas Day, the biggest problem for the three-time All-Pro
was not L'Jarius Sneed. While Adams should have had at least two
more catches, Aidan O'Connell's inability to complete a pass after
the first quarter had more to do with Adams' struggles (wind appeared
to be a major issue, for what it is worth).
Even for a star like Adams, it is difficult for fantasy managers
to shake off a one-catch performance and pretend like it didn't
happen entering championship week. The good news here is that
he is probably in line for a strong rebound effort. Vegas-Indy
will be played in perfect conditions, the Raiders will almost
certainly want to force-feed Adams the ball and the Colts do not
have anyone on Sneed's level to discourage O'Connell from looking
Adams' way. I am not starting Adams with a great deal of confidence,
but I think there is a better than one-in-three chance that he
will be the most productive receiver from this group this week.
MissionCoach: Patrick Mahomes (vs. CIN) or Jordan Love (@ MIN)?
The Chiefs are in a weird place in that Rashee Rice is on the
verge of becoming a star but is not quite there yet. Travis Kelce's
age (34) is starting to show in his game. The vaunted offensive
line is not holding up its end of the bargain. Mahomes does not
trust the line to hold up or his receivers to get open. Last but
not least, the running game is not good enough to carry Kansas
City through this tough time.
While I despise the phrase "the offense is broken,"
I do not think we will see vintage Mahomes again until next season.
The Chiefs have had ample opportunity over the last two months
to show growth (not to mention upside). His best weekly fantasy
finish over that time was the same game (QB9). Outside of that,
he has not been a top-12 quarterback in any week since the team's
Week 10 bye. His average passing numbers over that span are 240
yards and 1.4 passing TDs. Mahomes' best performance over that
time is 298 yards passing and two touchdowns versus the Raiders
in Week 12 (20.8 fantasy points). While the point can be made
that Cincinnati made Mason Rudolph look good, much of that happened
because George Pickens was that much better than the players guarding
him last week. Who do the Chiefs have that can beat defenders
with raw speed like that? Marquez Valdes-Scantling? No thanks.
The alternative to Mahomes is Love, who faces a Minnesota defense
that has allowed one passer to top 20 fantasy points since Week
3 (Jake Browning, 21.0). Over that time, the Vikings have stymied
Mahomes (19.2), Justin Fields (14.6), Brock Purdy (16.8) and Love
(16.6) among others. If I were benching Mahomes this week - which
is not out of the question - I would want to do so with an option
with a healthy supporting cast and a proven ability to perform
well when pressured. Christian Watson, Dontayvion Wicks and Jayden Reed are all in some doubt to play this week due to injury, which
leaves Romeo Doubs and perhaps Bo Melton as Love's top receiver
options. If two of the three injured options are good to go, that
may be enough for me to roll with Love. However, I do not think
I could bench Mahomes for Love's less-than-perfect situation and
feel good about my decision.
I would not be surprised if there is much more than a four-point
difference either way between Schultz and Kraft. The difference
between the two is that Schultz has virtually no ceiling this
week, as only three tight ends have reached double figures versus
the Titans. (Last week, Colby Parkinson was the first tight end
to score a touchdown against Tennessee). None of those three topped
10.9 PPR fantasy points. The Titans have faced David Njoku, Evan Engram and Schultz, so their ability to clamp down against the
position is no joke. Conversely, Love may not have many other
healthy alternatives other than Kraft to throw to this week. While
Minnesota has not been a great matchup for tight ends either,
the Vikings' blitz-happy defense should theoretically create some
opportunities for Kraft to move the chains. Even if C.J. Stroud
returns to action this week, my lean would be toward Kraft.
For the choice at DST, the only realistic options in my mind
are the Broncos and Jaguars. With that said, only Denver feels
like an appealing option here. The Broncos collected six sacks
and forced two turnovers in the game Justin Herbert was lost for
the season in Week 14. In the subsequent two games started by
Easton Stick, defenses have piled up eight sacks, forced five
turnovers and scored twice on defense. While most of that damage
was a product of the Raiders' defense in Week 15, we have seen
Denver's DST do a good job of creating pressure and forcing miscues
recently and more frequently than any of the three other options.
Lake209: I am limping into the final. I lost Christian Kirk
and Tank Dell earlier. Now, Jaylen Waddle and Isiah Pacheco seem
unlikely to play.
I have to start three of the following seven: Ty Chandler (vs.
GB), Marquise Brown (@ PHI), Jameson Williams (@ DAL), Dontayvion
Wicks (@ MIN), Marvin Mims (vs. LAC), Josh Downs (vs. LV) and
Dallas Goedert (vs. ARI).
As noted above, the threat of Alexander Mattison chipping away
at Chandler's workload is a real one. Then again, Mattison did
little to put pressure on him by losing a yard on two carries
last week. There is enough upside for any decent or good running
back facing the Green Bay defense right now that I think he has
to be considered a must-start from this group.
Outside of one game in Week 12, Hollywood Brown has been a virtual
non-factor for the second half of the season. Considering the
amount of practice time he has missed recently and the likelihood
he will still be affected by his heel injury - if he plays - makes
him a no-go for me.
As much as I want Downs to be a thing right now, he has not reached
double figures in fantasy points since Week 8 despite seeing 13
targets in one game and nine in another. Last week should have
been a showcase for him without Michael Pittman Jr. (concussion)
around, but it was more of the same - albeit in a tough matchup.
Mims will theoretically have some value if Courtland Sutton is
unable to pass through the league's concussion protocol in time,
but I don't want to deal with multiple moving parts (including
Jarrett Stidham replacing Russell Wilson at quarterback) if I
don’t have to in the fantasy championship. Moving on ...
Following the wishes of this manager, I think Williams is the
one gamble from this group that has a chance to hit big, although
I would say there is only about a 20 percent chance of it happening.
Williams' role is starting to grow with 13 targets over the last
two contests. There is a very real chance this game shoots out
and recent history (Seattle in Week 13 and Philadelphia in Week
14) tells us the Cowboys are capable of giving up good fantasy
performances to multiple receivers in the same game. If I had
to take a shot on a receiver from this group this week, it would
be Williams.
Unfortunately, the chest injury that knocked Wicks out of Week
16 may end up keeping him out of Week 17 as well. The primary
reason I am advocating for Williams over Wicks is health. If Wicks
can squeeze out a full practice by Friday, I would probably start
him over Williams.
Goedert feels like more of a floor play than a ceiling play this
week, but consecutive games of nine targets have me believing
he is healthy and primed to end a five-game scoreless streak.
Arizona ranks among the stingiest defenses in the league in terms
of tight end production but has yielded five good - if not great
- games to the position since Week 7. Cole Kmet had a career day
against the Cardinals last week and played only 30 offensive snaps.
Goedert's usage is not much different from Kmet's, so we should
not be surprised if Philadelphia takes a page from Chicago's playbook
and makes Goedert even more of a priority than he has been in
recent weeks.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.