Considering the smashing success that last week's article - Running
With Purpose: RB Usage After 3 Weeks - was, it only seems right
that receivers and tight ends get the same treatment. While I acknowledge
the same metrics aren't quite as important to non-running backs,
there is still value to be gained from analyzing at how much playing
time receivers are getting and how often they are being utilized
when they are on the field. I also wanted to avoid the same old
(and maybe a bit tired) target recap article I have typically done
around this time of the season in recent years.
Due to some inconsistencies with my data sources, I had to eliminate
two of the metrics I used last week for running backs - Touch
% and Util %. Thankfully, those metrics aren't quite as important
at the two positions we'll be discussing in this article because
very few players at those positions steal more than a handful
of carries each season.
Key:
Snap % - percentage of total snaps
played Rush % - percentage of snaps played
with a rushing attempt Tar % - percentage of snaps played
with a target
Note: Receivers and tight ends needed to average at least
20 snaps per game to qualify.
****The bulk of this chart was created using information
provided by FantasyPros and Pro Football Reference.
Chris Hogan's hot start can in part be
attributed to the Pats limiting Amendola's usage in hopes
of keeping him healthy.
As you can probably tell from the looking at the group when sorting
"total," trying to find much deep analysis using snap
counts isn't overly helpful, nor is it overly predictive of fantasy
success. Playing time is the currency by which NFL players are
"paid" on the field, but fantasy owners want to know
what players are doing with that "cash" once they receive
it. In short, we must dig deeper.
Target percentage is a much more telling metric, as it gives
owners much more of an idea of how much the quarterback trusts
him, how often the offensive coordinator is dialing up plays for
him when he is in the game, or both. Doing a search in this column
yields some interesting results, although it is somewhat predictable
none of the top three entries (Jarvis Landry, Mike Evans and Corey Davis) have played as many games as the rest of the players. The
more interesting entries to me are Keenan Allen and Danny Amendola,
who also has one fewer game to his name than the majority of the
players listed. Both players are being targeted 19 percent of
the time they are on the field - which is different than being
targeted on 19 percent of the pass attempts - and speaks to how
important each player is to Philip Rivers and Tom Brady, respectively.
The only thing keeping Amendola from being a Julian Edelman clone
is playing time - just over 33 snaps per game - as the team desperately
tries to protect him from himself. It is one key explanation as
to why Hogan's snap count is so high.
Given how much Arizona and Houston rely on Larry Fitzgerald and
DeAndre Hopkins, respectively, in the passing game, it probably
comes as no surprise they lead all receivers and tight ends in
total number of snaps so far. No. 3 (Chris Hogan) and No. 4 (Jaron Brown) have to come as a bit more of a surprise, however, since
Hogan wasn't even guaranteed a primary role in New England's passing
game before the start of the season.
Brown wasn't guaranteed anything heading into the season coming
off a 2016 ACL tear, and a zero-target game in Week 1 (despite
playing 55 snaps, no less) only seemed to cement his status as
a bit player. Yet, there is Brown sitting 20th in PPR fantasy
points per game (13.5) and sitting on a number of waiver wires.
He has at least 11 targets in two of his games (six in the other)
and wasn't too far away from catching two touchdown passes in
the one game in which he didn't. It's not crazy to believe it
will be Jaron Brown - and not John Brown or J.J. Nelson - who
will remain the target of choice behind Larry Fitzgerald in the
league's second-most pass-happy attack (64 percent pass, 36 percent
run) simply because he is a bigger target who isn't as a prone
to soft-tissue injuries as John Brown and Nelson seem to be.
Antonio Brown's appearance near the top is no surprise, but Julio Jones' presence might be considering he has seen exactly one target
inside the red zone. It's a bit disconcerting when someone like
Dez Bryant already has six inside the 10 alone and Fitzgerald
has 10 inside the 20.
Moving on to the less obvious players, Adam Humphries' line across
the board is almost identical to teammate DeSean Jackson's. Humphries'
16-percent target percentage is a bit of an eye-opener, especially
for someone who was supposed to get lost in the wave of new talent
that joined the Buccaneers this spring. Seeing as how Tampa Bay
just got done playing the Vikings and Giants' impressive secondaries,
there may be less of a need for Humphries' quick routes in an
offense run by a coach (HC Dirk Koetter) who likes the vertical
passing game as much as anyone. With that said, even the most
aggressive NFL teams usually don't go downfield more than 25 percent
of the time. Ultimately, how long Humphries stays relevant depends
on how long Koetter chooses to go with three-wide sets over two-tight
sets, which would I receive lead to more playing time for rookie
O.J. Howard.
I fear I'm jinxing him by evening mentioning his name, but Bruce Ellington needs to be on more fantasy radars than he currently
is. Despite the return of Will Fuller last week, Ellington still
logged 66 snaps after getting 70 the week before in New England.
One of the more snake-bitten players when it comes to injuries
in recent memory, Ellington has taken over the "super"
slot job from Braxton Miller. With the amount of playing time
he is receiving and given the possibility that Deshaun Watson
may begin to back away a bit from force-feeding DeAndre Hopkins
- "Nuk" has a league-high 49 targets after four games
- Ellington may end up absorbing the same intermediate looks that
made C.J. Fiedorowicz valuable in fantasy last year. Furthermore,
Watson proved over his last two years at Clemson he knows how
to find his slot receiver, as Hunter Renfrow was more than just
a little nuisance in both national championship games against
Alabama. Ellington's biggest obstacle as a pro has always been
durability; if he's finally moving past that, his role will only
grow. And in case anyone was wondering, Fuller played 67 snaps
in his return Week 4, so Ellington's high snap count last week
was not a result of the Texans easing Fuller back into action.
Pierre Garcon may be disappointing some folks with his every-other-game
production thus far, but did anyone really expect him to produce
at Seattle in Week 2 or in shadow coverage against Patrick Peterson
last week? He has been exactly what owners should have expected
from him in August: a candidate for 10 or more targets in soft-to-medium
matchups who is not going to score a lot of touchdowns or be unable
to overcome Brian Hoyer being his quarterback in the more difficult
ones. Owners should really embrace the fact he is seeing over
eight targets on nearly 60 snaps per game. At his current rate
(which is probably a little slower than expected), Garcon is on
pace for 80 catches and 1,140 yards. Considering the likelihood
he'll find the end zone three or four times over the last 12 games
after failing to do so in the first four, those are WR2 numbers
in a bad offense. If "business" picks up even a little
bit over the next quarter of the season - and it should with upcoming
matchups against Indianapolis, Dallas and Philadelphia's banged-up
secondary - Garcon's production only figures to pick up.
On the other end of the activity spectrum, we have Washington's
supposed "top" receivers, Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder. I warned owners during the summer that HC Jay Gruden's
history suggests he believed much more in a balanced offensive
approach than former OC Sean McVay and that is how it is playing
out so far. Whereas DeSean Jackson and Garçon were each
targeted on 14 percent of their snaps in a more pass-heavy offense
(Kirk Cousins had 606 attempts in 2016; he's on pace for 484 this
season), Pryor is being targeted on 12 percent of his plays and
Crowder 11. Throw Ryan Grant into the mix and an increase in activity
for Josh Doctson and you have an offense that no longer comes
anywhere close to resembling the 2016 edition.
Count me among the frustrated Kelvin Benjamin owners, but it
is hard for a 6-5, 245-pound receiver to do the work he is expected
to do in fantasy when he has two red zone targets through four
games (none inside the 10). Meanwhile, teammate Devin Funchess
has four red zone targets (scoring on two). Benjamin and Funchess
both check in at a 13-percent target percentage, although that
(and the 60-snap difference in Funchess' favor) is a bit misleading
since Benjamin was injured in the first quarter (and did not return)
in Week 3. While this week may not be the best week for KB to
break out against Detroit, he has been targeted on 24 percent
of his routes and the schedule the rest of the way appears to
be about as soft as I projected in August. Stay the course. It's
obvious Cam Newton loves throwing him the ball, and one can only
hope last week versus the Patriots was exactly the spark this
offense needed. If that is what ends up happening, there will
be more Week 4-like performances ahead for Benjamin. Much like
Julio Jones, Benjamin has yet to score and is more than 200 yards
below his pace from last season - both of which were considered
disappointing by their lofty standards. Unlike Jones, Benjamin's
YPC is a career-high 16.5. The dam is about to break for both
players, so stay patient.
Congratulations if you had Rob Gronkowski playing five fewer
snaps than ironman Jason Witten a quarter of the way through the
season. What is a bit scary is that while Witten has played all
of his team's 263 snaps thus far, Gronk could have played almost
30 more than Witten if he wasn’t being "monitored."
Trusting a player with three back surgeries to hold up for 1,032
snaps when he has combined for 1,305 over the last two seasons
seems foolish, but it is worth noting he played at least 809 snaps
in the previous four years prior to logging 357 last year, per
Football Outsiders.
Is Charles Clay really becoming a thing in 2017? Although mostly
out of necessity, the removal of receiver talent in Buffalo -
unlike Washington - has cleared a path for Clay to become the
leading man. Or has it? Clay's 6.25 targets/game average is only
marginally better than last season's 5.8, while this season's
72-percent catch rate is only a little bit better than last year's
65.5. So what gives? His highest YPC (12.6) since his rookie year
is one reason. His five red zone targets might be another (13
all of last year). His snaps/game (53) only ranks 13th among tight
ends, while his 12 percent target percentage is only two percent
higher than last year. So why does it seem like he's "better"
in 2017? Clay, who didn't score until Week 14 in 2016, already
has two TDs. In short, he has simply carried over what he did
at the end of last year into this season.
Sticking with tight ends, do you remember where you were Austin
Seferian-Jenkins was supposedly out of shape? It was just two
short weeks ago. For someone with fitness questions, I'd say 51
snaps/game and playing 77 percent of the snaps is doing all right.
His 10 percent target percentage is low for a tight end - even
by that position's relatively low standards - but probably better
than most would have expected for someone who is just working
his way into the offense. I have no desire to own more than one
Jet on any of my teams, but Seferian-Jenkins is a player I have
liked since he was drafted and an above-average talent for his
position at the very least. Jermaine Kearse's first two weeks
with Gang Green serves as proof the Jets can support at least
one fantasy option in the passing game. I also don't think it's
a coincidence neither Kearse nor Robby Anderson has seen a ton
of volume since Seferian-Jenkins completed his suspension. And
no offense to Kearse or Anderson, but ASJ is bigger and more athletic
than both and will typically face less-skilled defenders given
the position he plays. That's a good combination for fantasy owners.
It also helps New York's next three opponents (Cleveland, New
England and Miami) all rank inside the top 10 in terms of most
points allowed to tight ends. I'm predicting a huge game for him
this week versus the Browns, who have surrendered at least 17.1
PPR fantasy points to a tight end in three of the four games they've
played this year. Even if you don't want to believe his role is
going to grow like I do, it's hard to thumb your nose at three
"soft" matchup for a player the Jets spent the summer
bragging about.
Jimmy Graham is probably not a name fantasy owners particularly
care to hear right now, even though he has performed much better
for his owners over the last two games. The offense was clearly
out of sorts in the first two weeks, and Graham was far from 100
percent in Week 2 at the very least, if not also Week 1. His 33-yard
catch late in Week 4 on a beautiful out-and-up route was a sign
he is starting to get right, while his 17 targets over the last
two contests is an indication the chemistry between Graham and
Russell Wilson is starting to build. The downside - and probably
the only thing keeping his owners from rejoicing over that time
- is the fact that Luke Willson has scored both of the touchdowns
that have gone to Seattle tight ends. It says here the absence
of Chris Carson - plus his continued return to near-full health
- will actually be a good thing for his fantasy production going
forward, particularly if Eddie Lacy and Thomas Rawls don't enjoy
more success on the ground than they have to this point. I'm most
encouraged by Graham's 14-percent target percentage, which is
a high number considering how dreadful his first two weeks were.
****************
I'm going to end this week's piece with a bit of a warning. Not
only is the NFL a small sample-size sport, it is a week-to-week
sport as well. What appears so obvious today is not necessarily
so obvious tomorrow. For as much good analysis as there is in
the fantasy industry as a whole, there is a lot of lazy analysis
as well, much of which assumes the NFL is static until the next
tidal wave comes in and changes everything for the umpteenth time.
Two weeks ago, the Saints' defense was a sieve. One month ago,
the Patriots were supposedly a top-10 defense and a team some
expected to go 16-0. Two weeks ago, the Baltimore Ravens' defense
was an impenetrable force. Owners and analysts alike must be vigilant
in asking and discovering why we were wrong and, in most cases,
what changed.
In New England's case, I think much of the blame can be placed
at the loss of veteran leaders such as Chris Long and Rob Ninkovich,
although it is pretty obvious MLB Dont'a Hightower is more important
to that defense that most people realized. He's played about 1
1/2 games and logged his first full game last week. All I'm saying
with the Patriots is that owners should enjoy the plus-matchup
they provide at the moment because HC Bill Belichick's track record
suggests he and DC Matt Patricia will find answers to their problems
sooner than later.
In Baltimore's case, it appears to be as simple as the loss of
340-pound run-stuffer DT Brandon Williams. While Williams' absence
may not be the sole reason of the Ravens' demise - the offense
isn't helping with its inability to sustain drives - it's probably
not a coincidence the defense began hemorrhaging rushing yards
just about as soon as Williams wasn't around to clog running lanes.
When once-elite defenses can't get opponents into long down-and-distance
situations, sack - and ultimately turnover - opportunities dry
up because defenses must still play run and pass. It's a key part
of basic football that doesn't get talked about nearly enough
by fantasy owners or analysts when it comes to defenses and defensive
efficiency. Baltimore's defense didn't just get bad overnight
after collecting eight sacks and 10 turnovers in the first two
weeks of the season. It lost a vital cog. Williams is without
a timetable for return at the moment, but you can almost bet when
he comes back, the Ravens will probably start looking a bit more
like the Week 1-2 version that was absolutely destroying offenses.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.