To review, we are looking for wide receivers who played well below their normal level of play, since that might have them being overlooked by other fantasy owners, thus becoming, ”bargains.”

It’s called the “return to the mean” theory.

“Return to the mean” describes a statistical phenomenon where extreme values in a dataset tend to be followed by values closer to the average. Translation – after an outlier of a value (either high or low), the next result tends to be less extreme and closer to the overall average. For fantasy football, it describes a player who posts a number far from his normal season and expects him to play closer to his average in the next “measurement” a.k.a. next season.

We found 20 such players who produced at least three points-per-game less than the previous season. We used a two-point threshold for running backs, but wide receivers are more volatile and therefore we are using a slightly larger variable.

Let’s analyze these guys to see who might be a valuable selection for 2025.

CeeDee Lamb, Dallas (-6.2) – Was 2023 (23.8 FPts/G) a “career year” or was 2024 just a down season caused by various conditions beyond his control? I’m going with answer “A”. Some would argue that he only had his No.1 QB through Week 9, but he wasn’t elite to start the season either. He averaged 18.5 FPts/G with Dak Prescott and 16.5 with backups. Now he’ll have to share targets with talented, but mercurial George Pickens. My guess is he won’t see the career-high 181 targets he saw in 2023 to produce almost 24 Fpts/G and career highs in yards and touchdowns. He is being drafted fifth overall and the third wideout behind Ja’Marr Chase and Justin Jefferson. That might be slightly high if you are only going to get around 18 FPts/G.



D.J. Moore, Chicago (-3.0) – Moore saw the 10th-most wide receiver targets in 2024, but produced the 28th-most fantasy points at the position. Admittedly, his rookie quarterback had a rough time and his offensive line was awful. Management made great stride in improving the OL which should help. But they also added offensive weapons which could reduce Moore’s target total. They spent a first-round pick (No.10 overall) on tight end Colston Loveland (Michigan) and added wideout Luther Burden III (Missouri) in the second round to go along with Moore and second-year starter Rome Odunze. That’s a lot of mouths to feed and might take away from Moore’s fantasy value. He’s going around the late fourth round as the 20th wide receiver off the board and it’s tough to see how he could make a drastic improvement under these conditions.

Tyreek Hill, Miami (-10.9) – Hill’s first two seasons in Miami were dynamic, just as they were in Kansas City, but everything went down the tubes when Tua Tagovailoa was injured (concussion and hip) and the Dolphins had no real backup plan at quarterback. Hill’s touchdown total dropped from 13 to six, receptions dropped from 119 to 81 and he lost almost 850 receiving yards because of the team’s lack of preparation. I’m not sure the new backups (Zach Wilson or rookie Quinn Ewers) changes this equation. If you draft Hill, you better pray to the health gods that Tagovailoa stays upright for 17 games. The good news is that Hill isn’t being drafted until the early third round as the 13th wideout off the board. At that price he’s probably worth the gamble to return to peak form.

Keenan Allen, Free agent (-8.7) – Until he signs with a team, he’s TBD.

Deebo Samuel, Washington (-5.1) – Samuel has never reached the heights of his 2021 season when he was part RB and part WR and all everything (21.1 FPts/G), but last year was the lowest production since he came into the league six years ago. He moves from the west coast to the east coast and from Mr. Irrelevant to the most exciting rookie in a long time. Jayden Daniels did it all last season with one great wide receiver and an aging tight end. Now he gets an improved No.2 wideout to make the offense more dangerous, but I’m not sure this will bring Samuel back to star level fantasy production. He’s still the second option on a team which didn’t throw for 4,000 yards and he won’t have any major usage out of the backfield. He’s more likely to see a small, maybe 20% improvement if he can find the end zone more than last year’s four times.

Michael Pittman Jr., Indianapolis (-5.0) – Before last season, Pittman was the Colts target-hog averaging 142 targets from 2021-2023. Last season he and Josh Downs split 220 targets evenly with Alec Pierce getting 69 targets as the No.3 guy. It didn’t help any of the receivers that the team’s quarterback play was subpar and they threw the ball just 513 times (27th-best). If you believe in Anthony Richardson at quarterback (47.7 completion % in 2024), then you might think Pittman and the receiving corps can make substantial improvements, but I’m not expecting major gains under center from “AR” or backup Daniel Jones.

Tank Dell, Houston (-6.5) – In a December game against Kansas City, Dell suffered a devastating injury that left him with a dislocated knee, torn ACL, torn MCL, torn LCL and meniscus damage. He is not expected to return in 2025 and it’s questionable whether he can ever return to the form that made him so exciting.

Chris Olave, New Orleans (-4.5) – Two factors can keep Olave from bouncing back in 2025; quarterback play and concussions. Let’s deal with the second item first. He suffered two concussions last season and has four confirmed concussion in three NFL seasons. That makes him a major health risk. When he’s played however, he’s played like a star receiver should, producing 1,000-yard seasons in his first two years. The second issue is much more complicated. We don’t know who his quarterback will be. Derek Carr’s retirement has left the Saints with three options; all seemingly mediocre-at-best. Currently, the options are; Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener and Louisville rookie Tyler Shough. I’m not excited about any of these choices and at this point the team doesn’t have the financial flexibility to go out and get a better player. Since I’ve seen the play from Rattler and Haener and not been impressed, I’m hoping for the rookie to win the job, but until I see improved quarterback play I don’t see greatness for Olave.

Jaylen Waddle, Miami (-4.5) –Everything I wrote about Tyreek Hill applies to Waddle as well. If Tagovailoa is able to play, then Waddle can return to form which is about 15.0 FPts/G. If not, then drafting Waddle is a losing proposition… even as a seventh-round selection.

Amari Cooper, Free agent - Until he signs with a team, he’s TBD.

DeAndre Hopkins, Baltimore (-4.0) – This not the Hopkins who dominated the league in Houston, or even the still solid wideout from Arizona. “D-Hop” is now a sure-handed possession receiver, but his explosiveness is limited. He hasn’t produced a 100-yard game since 2023 and only five since the end of the 2020 season. Zay Flowers will get the volume, Rashod Bateman the deep stuff and Hopkins will get first downs and some touchdowns, though he’ll need to share them with tight end Mark Andrews. Unfortunately, his fantasy value will continue to slide in the wrong direction.

Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco (-6.8) – Expectations are that he might not be ready to start the season. That puts a damper on things, but once back in the lineup his value should return to 2023 levels. Samuel is gone and replaced by a combo of Jauan Jennings and Ricky Pearsall, but Brock Purdy has more trust in Aiyuk. As a ninth-round pick (WR35), he’s an excellent value.

Christian Kirk, Houston (-4.0) – Kirk broke his collarbone last October, but is already back and participating in OTAs. However, the move from Jacksonville to Houston isn’t a good one for fantasy purposes. Nico Collins is the guy for the Texans and despite trading for Kirk, the team selected two wide receivers in the draft – Jayden Higgins in the second round and Jaylin Noel in the third. Higgins is a big receiver and Noel is a speed guy. That’s going make for an interesting camp to see who emerges as the No.2 behind Collins. The veteran is likely to start the season there, but could end up in the slot if Higgins is as advertised.

Christian Watson, Green Bay (-3.8) – The Green Bay Packers’ wide receiver room is crowded and confusing. Jayden Reed should be the leader, but with Romeo Doubs, Dontayvion Wicks, Watson, Bo Melton, Mecole Hardman, first-round selection Matthew Golden (Texas) and third-rounder Savion Williams (TCU) there are a lot of mouths to feed. Watson suffered an ACL injury in early January, so his availability is also in doubt. I don’t see how Watson becomes a major fantasy factor in 2025.

Tyler Lockett, Tennessee (-4.6) – The move from Seattle to Tennessee isn’t an upward one for the veteran Lockett. He’ll be dealing with a rookie quarterback (Cam Ward) and No.1 receiver Calvin Ridley. The sure-handed Lockett could become the team’s possession receiver, but with limited fantasy value. I don’t expect a lot and neither do fantasy owners as he’s going off the board as the 95th receiver.

Brandin Cooks, New Orleans (-3.7) – This is not a good spot for Cooks. The 31-year-old third receiver behind Olave and Rashid Shaheed on a team without a franchise quarterback. It’s best to stay away from this Saints offense if you can.

Josh Palmer, Buffalo (-3.0) – He wasn’t fantasy-worthy with the Chargers and that’s unlikely to change now that he’s in Buffalo. He had one decent year in 2022 (72-769-3), but that was when every other Charger receiver landed on the injury list. He’s far down the depth chart with little chance to make himself productive.

Tim Patrick, Detroit (-3.3) – As the third or fourth guy behind Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Kalif Raymond barring injury it’s hard to see how he makes it into your fantasy starting lineup. He’s never been there before in four years for the Broncos and in the second year in Detroit he’s a useful possession-type receiver and nothing more.

Gabe Davis, Free agent - Until he signs with a team, he’s TBD.

Mike Williams, Los Angeles Chargers (12.3) – Too fragile and no longer a primary target for Justin Herbert, he’d be a long shot to help your fantasy lineup. This is Ladd McConkey’s team and even an improving Quentin Johnston will get more targets than Williams. Let the past go, he will be no help to you in 2025.