Why do I believe this statement to be true?

It’s a historical fact. Don’t fight the past, remember it, learn from it, and draft accordingly. Only three quarterbacks have finished top-five for the last three seasons – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and 2024 Super Bowl MVP Jalen Hurts. Fantasy owners like consistency. We like predictability. And when it’s top-five consistency, we really like it. Let’s look at the numbers.

Josh Allen, Buffalo – He’s been the most consistent of all quarterbacks over the past five seasons. He was No.1 three times and top-five every season. He was No.4 last season despite not having a true No.1 receiver. Khalil Shakir is a nice second receiver, but does not compare to most team’s top guy. He’s no Ja’Marr Chase or Justin Jefferson or prime Stefon Diggs. Management didn’t add much in free agency or the draft, but with his running ability (27 rushing touchdowns and 1,055 rushing yards over the past two seasons), Allen is “mediocre receiver-proof.” He’ll cost you a mid-third round pick, but he’s worth it.

Lamar Jackson, Baltimore – You have to love his progression. He’s improved his fantasy rank in each season from 10th in 2020 to No.1 last season. Management has been helpful, bringing in DeAndre Hopkins to go along with a young budding star Zay Flowers. They get reliable tight end play from Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely. He’s also still the most explosive of runners when he gets outside the pocket, though he’s scoring less than in his “early” years. He will continue to be elite and be an end-of-the-third-round selection.

Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia – Those who think the possible banning of the “Tush Push” would be the end of Hurts’ fantasy value should take off those blinders. If Tom Brady can score on an ordinary quarterback sneak, I think a guy who bench presses 600 lbs., can probably get in without a push from behind. The Eagles have primarily used the play the last two seasons and he rushed for double-digit touchdowns the two seasons before that. The loss of 3-4 touchdowns to Saquon Barkley won’t significantly change Hurts’ fantasy value.

How about the rest of the field?

Joe Burrow, Cincinnati – For Burrow, it’s not about ability, it’s about health. In the three seasons he’s played 16 or-more games, he’s averaged 25.7 FPts/G and finished at least top-eight, including second last season. The team has kept the dynamic duo of Chase and Tee Higgins intact with solid tight end play from Mike Gesicki. The ultimate question is whether the Bengals’ OL can protect their star quarterback. In 2024, the Cincinnati OL failed in that goal to keep Burrow upright. They finished 32nd (a.k.a. last) in PBWR (pass block win rate) at just 56.4%, compared to No.1 Denver with a 74.4% PBWR according to NFLLines.com. They did draft two offensive linemen, though none in the first two rounds, but third-rounder Dylan Fairchild (Georgia) was highly rated in pass blocking. Burrow’s ceiling is No.1, but his floor is the blue medical tent. Are you a gambler?

Dak Prescott, Dallas – Finally, management has seen fit to help out their highly-paid quarterback Dak Prescott. They drafted a replacement for seven-time All-Pro Zack Martin, (Tyler Booker) and in early May traded for a quality receiver (George Pickens) to go across from CeeDee Lamb. The team also added Javonte Williams, Miles Sanders and rookie Jaydon Blue (Texas) to what was an average backfield. Prescott had an off year in 2024 which ended prematurely due to a severe hamstring injury. He’s finished top-10 in three of five seasons and top-five once. Like Burrow, Prescott isn’t much of a runner, so improving a below-average pass blocking line is critical. Traditionally, Prescott beats up on bottom-dwelling teams and struggles against tough teams. I’m not sure they did enough to reach their goal while playing an expected top-five hardest schedule in 2025.

Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay – Sure, we all loved the “Baker Mayfield Story” of him rising from the ashes and producing top-three fantasy numbers last season. But is this “repeatable? Actually, I think it is. Mike Evans is… well he’s Mike Evans. He’s the most consistent receiver since Jerry Rice. Eleven consecutive seasons of 1,000 yards (thank goodness for a 17th game) and he produced double-digit touchdowns in four of the last five seasons. Chris Godwin is back after an injury-marred 2024, but the team also “bought” some protection from injuries to either star receiver by drafting Emeka Egbuka (Ohio State) this April. Running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White combined for almost 100 receptions. The offensive line ranked top-five in PBWR (70.2%). I believe Mayfield IS set up for a repeat performance. He’s being drafted in the middle of round six as the sixth quarterback off the board and he’s an excellent value here.

Jayden Daniels, Washington – Jayden Daniels flashed in 2025 as the rookie surpassed all expectations... by a lot. He finished sixth-best among all quarterbacks by averaging 23.7 FPts/G and led his Commanders to the NFC Championship game. He threw the ball well and ran it well, a deadly combination that makes his path to elite fantasy status possible. In 2024 his primary targets were underrated Terry McLaurin and veteran tight end Zach Ertz. Realizing they had to improve at the spot opposite “Scary Terry” the team brought in Deebo Samuel. Samuel hasn’t produced superstar numbers since 2021 (21.1 FPts/G), but he’ll be better than the previous options (Noah Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus). Daniels won’t sneak up on anyone in his second season, but a solid OL (top-five in pass blocking) and a better receiving group should keep him on the edge of top-five status. In early mock drafts he’s the third quarterback off the board in the middle of the fourth round ahead of Hurts. I don’t think he’ll suffer like C.J. Stroud did his second season, but you can have a sure thing in Hurts for less (early fifth round).

Jared Goff, Detroit – “It’s a trap.” Beware. Yes, Jared Goff finished seventh last season, but he isn’t a sure thing. He has a very good receiving corps led by Amon-Ra St. Brown, speedster Jameson Williams and tight end Sam LaPorta. Still, my issue is the running game with Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is so good that it might limit the Lions’ passing game (particularly in the touchdown pass department). The Lions led the league in scoring last season (564 points), but lost their highly-touted offensive coordinator. This team’s realistic goal is the Super Bowl and sometimes that means shutting down the offense to protect a player’s health. Run the ball, get the win and get ready to play the next game. I expect this offense to be great, but maybe not as good as a season ago and Goff might slip a few spots. He’s being drafted right where I expect him to be – 10th among quarterbacks.

Sam Darnold, Seattle – Another trap. Darnold no longer has the superb Justin Jefferson to target. His home is now 1,650 miles west and his new receiving corps is Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Noah Fant. That’s nice, but a downgrade from “JJ”, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson. Additionally, how can we trust a quarterback off his first good season in seven years? The simple answer is… we can’t.

Brock Purdy, San Francisco – His wallet is fatter, but can he reproduce a top-10 performance without Samuel and an unknown return date for Brandon Aiyuk? Can former first-round draft choice Ricky Pearsall and Jauan Jennings successfully play larger roles? Will Christian McCaffrey return to form after playing just four games in 2024? Can LT Trent Williams continue to dominate? That’s a lot of questions and too much uncertainty for me. Let it be someone’s gamble. He has been the 14th QB off the board, meaning he’s likely a backup on a fantasy roster… interesting for a guy who has finished top-10 the past two seasons.

Bo Nix, Denver – Two rookie quarterbacks cracked the top-10 last season and the most surprising of the two was the Broncos’ Bo Nix. Denver wasn’t very good running the ball behind Javonte Williams and have replaced him with UCF rookie RJ Harvey. They are essentially bringing back the same receiving corps with the addition of third-round pick Pat Bryant. I like the way head coach Sean Payton brought the rookie along and he should continue to improve, but I think the team would like to run the ball more and throw it less. That could mean improved efficiency for Nix, but not improved fantasy value. Still, a solid value in the ninth round, just not a top-five performer.

Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City – He gets respect for winning championships, but his fantasy value is headed in the wrong direction. Sure, he lost Rashee Rice early in 2024, but start tight end Travis Kelce looked like he slowed down. Xavier Worthy is a stud deep threat, but while I’d like to have Mahomes IRL, his fantasy value is suspect. The team should get a full year of Isiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt and when you run the ball, teams can’t beat up your quarterback. For Andy Reid, the goal is win games and keep Mahomes healthy for the “second season.” He’s being drafted eighth among quarterbacks because of his name and history, but it might be a little bit too high. You know he hasn’t thrown for 340 yards since 2023? And hasn’t had a four-touchdown passing game since October 2023 either.

Kyler Murray, Arizona – I’m out on Kyler Murray after having him in a high percentage of leagues in previous seasons. The last three seasons have been disappointments. He’s got a No.1 receiver. He has a prolific tight end. He’s throwing the ball as often as in his successful 2019-2021 seasons. But he’s not getting the results. I blame James Conner for scoring too often. I see no path to a top-five quarterback.

Tua Tagovailoa, Miami – Maybe I would think about it… if he could guarantee he plays 17 games, but I don’t see that happening.

Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers – Nope. His head coach Jim Harbaugh would never permit it. The team just traded for running back Najee Harris and drafted Omarion Hampton (North Carolina) in the first round. They were a running team in 2024 and they will be a run-first team in 2025.

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville – “Sunshine” from Remember the Titans is not a top-five quarterback. He’s never been a top-five quarterback and has never finished higher than 11th-best in fantasy points-per-game. He might get close to a single-digit ranking if first-round pick Travis Hunter plays a majority of the offensive plays to go along with Brian Thomas Jr., but the team lost prolific tight end Evan Engram to free agency. With an ADP of 239, no one else believes it either.

Caleb Williams, Chicago – The OL was suspect in 2024… actually they were horrible. So the team revamped the line, drafted a rookie wideout and tight end (Luther Burden III and Colston Loveland) to go along with D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze. That’s a lot of changes, including head coach and OC, so it might take a little time to get started. He’s worth a flyer as a second option (ADP 183) because he has high upside… if every move management made works out. Still, he’s not going to be a top-five quarterback in 2025.