The wide receiver top-10 is more volatile than the running back room. Starting with the 2020 wideouts, top-10 (based on FPts/G), only 14 of the 30 players were repeat members (min four games played in a season). Just four repeated from 2020 to ‘21, six the next season and four last year (CeeDee Lamb, Tyreek Hill. A.J. Brown and Justin Jefferson). And only Hill has appeared in all four of the seasons.

Dropping:

Keenan Allen, CHI

Allen leaves the comfort of the Chargers where he was always the No. 1 option to a competitive situation in Chicago. Allen’s 11.5 targets per game figures to take a significant hit. He also leaves a talented young quarterback, who averaged 39 passing attempts per game and threw for more than 4,000 yards three times, to a team which has never had a 4,000-yard passer in 104 seasons. He arrives in Chicago to a team which already has a top-10 receiver (D.J. Moore) and drafted another wide receiver with their second of two first-round picks at No. 9 (Rome Odunze). Allen also has to learn the habits of his new rookie quarterback, who in turn has to learn the league (though I was impressed with his first pre-season game). Allen figures to do some damage early, then his totals sink a bit as Odunze gets added to the offense. He’s likely a low-end WR2 or high-end WR3.

Puka Nacua, LAR

Yes, Puka Nacua won many people a title last season. That was 2023 and it’s a new season. Cooper Kupp still plays in LA and he’s starting the season in relative good health. Forget what Kupp is capable of doing? You must have a short-term memory issue. In 2021 he produced 145-1,947-16 and a league-leading 25.7 FPts/G. The very next season he repeated as the top receiver posting 75-812-6 in just nine games before an injury sidelined him. He may never reach that level again, but he will thwart Nacua’s ability to be a top-10 option. Nacua is dealing with a “week-to-week” knee injury, so there’s that. It’s tough enough to get through a 17-game season when you start at 100% healthy. Nacua might sneak into the last top-10 spot, but I’m thinking 11th-20th. He’s going well before that fantasy value in early drafting.

Nico Collins, HOU

Nico Collins was the 2023 receiving star for the Texans and rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, particularly when Tank Dell’s season ended in Week 13. Everything went right for Collins last year. He was one of the most efficient receiver in the league averaging 2.37 FPts per target. But the addition of Stefon Diggs, who requires, no demands, the largest target share from his quarterback will make it difficult for all three guys to crack the top-10 and might also cause some dissension in the receiver’s room. A slight drop in his production level seems a logical analysis.

D.J. Moore, CHI

Possible Additions:

Ja’Marr Chase, CIN

Although Chase has not been as explosive as his rookie season (teams are playing much more Cover-2) he’s still worthy of top-10 status. He finished 12th last season, but didn’t have his starting quarterback for seven games last season. Browning was good in the backup role, but Chase only cracked 100-yards once in those games. His seven touchdowns were the fewest of his pro career. The key to Chase’s fantasy value is keeping Joe Burrow healthy. One ranking site has the Bengals OL ranked 21st, another 24th. They will have to improve the line if the Burrow-to-Chase combination is to be elite again.

Garrett Wilson, NYJ

Garrett Wilson finished 33rd last season at 12.8 FPts/G. But he had Aaron Rodgers for four plays. The combination of Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian and Tim Boyle were horrible. The Jets finished 29th in scoring and the defense scored three times. They were 30th in passing yards and dead last in passing TDs (11). Even in his last underwhelming full season (2002 in Green Bay) Rodgers threw 26 touchdowns passes. Rodgers is getting really old, but he could throw more than 11 touchdowns from a golf cart. With oft-injured Mike Williams opposite Wilson, the third-year wideout could lead the league in targets.

Cooper Kupp, LAR

As I said early when reasoning for Nacua’s fall from the top-10, Kupp is extremely talented. He’s also Matthew Stafford safety valve when he gets in trouble. He’s a bit of a question mark due to two consecutive injury-filled seasons, but Christian McCaffrey also had two injury-filled years and has returned to form and more. Kupp isn’t being drafted as a WR1 and that could be a mistake for fantasy owners. I have Kupp as a sleeper top pick this season, as much as a former best wide receiver in football can be a sleeper.

Marvin Harrison Jr. ARI

If your wide receiver choices are Marvin Harrison Jr., Michael Wilson, Greg Dortch or Zay Jones, where are you sending your targets? Former Cardinals wide receivers Marquise Brown is with Patrick Mahomes in Kansas City, and Rondale Moore (inj) is in Atlanta. That’s 163 targets up for grabs. Harrison is Kyler Murray’s most talented receiver since prime DeAndre Hopkins. The pass-catching work in Arizona will be MHJ and tight end Trey McBride. By-the-way, Junior’s dad, Marvin Harrison’s first year in the NFL, with Jim Harbaugh and the immortal Paul Justin at quarterback, produced a 64-836-8 total. Murray is better than those quarterbacks and Junior is way ahead of his dad knowledge at this point because he’s had “papa” to lean on for his entire playing career. He’s got Chase and Jefferson talent level, he just needs Burrow and Kirk Cousins-level passing.