There are at least three running backs who won’t make this list
next season. The first issue is that there were two Miami Dolphins
running backs on the list. Won’t happen in 2024. First off, Raheem
Mostert scoring 21 touchdowns is so much of an outlier that
it’s hard to imagine it happening for two consecutive years. His
previous high for a season was just 10 touchdowns. More than doubling
his total was extreme and can’t be counted on. He scored 18 rushing
touchdowns on just 209 carries or one per 11.61 tries. In 2006 when
LaDainian Tomlinson rushed for 28 touchdowns he only averaged one
per 12.43. Also, in 2005, Shaun Alexander rushed for 27 touchdowns
on 370 carries or 13.7 carries per touchdowns. Had Mostert scored
produced his previous best touchdown total, his PPG would have been
just 13.58 FPts/G and he would not have been RB1-worthy.
Second, his teammate De’Von
Achane played out of this world last season - averaging 7.8
yards per carry. That doesn’t happen in the NFL. In fact, no running
back in the modern era, who qualified for leading the league in
yards per attempt, has ever posted that number. The record in
7.5 ypc by Baltimore’s Lenny Moore in 1956 (In 1934 the ‘famous’
Beattie Feathers averaged 8.4, but I don’t remember much of his
career… or any of his career). To expect a repeat from Achane
is foolish. If only one back were in Miami, they would certainly
be top-10 worthy, but with two healthy backs I don’t think either
makes the list.
Alvin Kamara of the last two seasons is not the superstar fantasy
running back of 2017-21 when he averaged 20.91 FPts/G. Over his
last 28 games he’s produced just 15.95 FPts/G. He’s
29 years old and the Saints will likely limit his usage by doubling
the work for backup Kendre Miller. At this point I see Kamara
as a solid RB2.
I’m also a little concerned with Saquon
Barkley for the same reason as Kamara. The team limiting his
workload to protect him for later in the season and the playoffs.
Additionally, the Eagles don’t throw much to their running backs.
Even with D'Andre
Swift and Kenneth
Gainwell who had receiving ability, they threw just 92 balls
to backs. The previous year with Miles
Sanders they threw just 45 balls to backs. For now, I’ll leave
him at the bottom half of the top-10.
Who will replace them?
We all hope Bijan Robinson will get a “real” workload
this season. We hope the new coaching staff will rectify this
mistake, but we have no actual evidence because they haven’t
played a game together. The head coach, Raheem Morris, was a defensive
coordinator by trade. The OC, Zac Robinson, has only dealt with
the Rams passing game since 2019, so we don’t know how he
will handle his running backs. Robinson already said Tyler Allgeier
will see “significant” work. We’re hoping they
are smart enough to fully use Bijan.
A healthy Jonathan Taylor without the very successful Zack Moss
alongside, should return to RB1 status. He miss the first four
weeks, then shared the workload from Week 5-8, but returned to
workhorse status for the five games he played from Week 10 on
(25.8 touches per game). With only Trey Sermon, Evan Hull and
Tyler Goodson on the depth chart, only injury should keep him
from being an RB1.
Finally, it’s hard to imagine Derrick Henry not having
a big season for the run-centric Ravens. With six consecutive
double-digit touchdowns on his resume and at least 1,000 rushing
yards in five of the last six seasons, I have no doubt he’ll
crack the top-10. Don’t worry about Lamar Jackson stealing
red zone touchdowns, he’s only rushed for 10 scores total
from 2021-23. Add in Keaton Mitchell (ACL) expected to return
sometime mid-season and Henry is a solid option.
