Le’Veon Bell, Matt Forte, Steve Smith Sr., Keenan Allen
and Brandon Marshall were among a handful of the many valuable
players that saw their week or season cut short in Week 8. Almost
without fail, every NFL season produces a relative (yet figurative)
bloodbath around the middle of the season, which probably makes
this point of the year the most difficult for fantasy owners every
season because of the large number of teams about to enjoy their
bye week (six this week and four more each of the next two weeks).
Consider yourself very lucky if your team(s) was/were unaffected.
If there is one positive that comes out of all these injury-related
departures for fantasy owners every year, it is that typically
new and exciting talent gets a chance to emerge. Because I will
be projecting the next quarter’s worth of statistics for
all 32 teams this week, I will mostly let my projections for each
team do the talking in regards to what players I expect to step
up.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at lWest one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
What to watch for: The next month should serve as a pretty good
gauge as to whether or not the running game has truly found its
legs. There is little doubt, however, the bye gave the Broncos ample
time to correct the miscommunication and technique errors that had
plagued the offensive line over the first half of the season. Although
owners cannot expect Anderson AND Hillman to perform at a RB2 level
every week moving forward, Week 8 showed owners that both players
still have significant fantasy value. Manning’s arm appeared
to need the bye too; his 340-yard performance against Green Bay
will probably go down as his season high, however. Still, the production
I projected for Manning above is more than realistic if his arm
looks as lively as it did for most of the Packers’ game. Despite
a slow day from Sanders last week, both he and Thomas stand to be
more efficient moving forward as well with the running game showing
improvement. There’s not a defense – including the Patriots
– that should elicit much panic. Owners probably shouldn’t
expect Davis to evolve into the second coming of Julius Thomas,
but his presence should be a boon to this offense regardless. It’ll
probably just take more than a month for it to happen.
What to watch for: West has quickly proven to be worth a top waiver
priority, but can it continue? He’s going to be hard-pressed
to do so in November as only one back apiece (Jamaal Charles versus
Denver, T.J. Yeldon versus Buffalo) has experienced any kind of
consistent success on the ground against the Broncos and Bills,
respectively. Regardless, he’s still worth plugging into lineups
as a high-upside RB2 for the remainder of the season. The passing
game is a different story and doesn’t have much reason for
optimism outside of Maclin, who will also have significant challenges
this month. Kelce has strung together three consecutive double-digit
fantasy performances, although his Week 8 touchdown catch was his
first since Week 1. He’ll have some decent opportunities to
add to that total in the near future.
What to watch for: One of the biggest surprises of the season has
been just how quickly and effectively Carr has bonded with Cooper
and Crabtree. The Jets blitzed 61 percent of the time in Week 8
believing they could rattle the Raiders’ offense and Carr
consistently torched them. Oakland isn’t going to see a comparable
defense over the next month, which means the Raiders’ recent
offensive production is mostly sustainable – especially against
a rather nondescript schedule. The running game has a bigger challenge
to overcome, although one could easily say the same thing about
Murray and the running game as I just did about the passing attack
after the former sixth-rounder gutted New York for 113 yards on
the ground. Don’t expect much in the way of touchdowns for
Murray over the next four games, however, since three of the Raiders’
opponents over that time have been quite stingy lately in that regard.
What to watch for: Every season seems to feature one or two teams
that simply cannot stay healthy and one of those teams this year
is the Chargers. The offensive line has been in utter chaos almost
from the start of the season and the team has rarely ever had (or
will have, for that matter) all of its playmakers healthy and on
the field at the same time. San Diego simply isn’t going to
be able to replace Keenan Allen, although Johnson is actually a
very similar receiver. It shouldn’t come as a complete surprise
if he ends up doing a pretty decent imitation of Allen and the upcoming
schedule will help him in that regard. The same goes for Floyd,
although his primary role will remain as a vertical threat. Of course,
owners should expect a healthy Gates to get targeted relentlessly
by Rivers, who will probably continue to push 50 attempts per game
simply because the offensive line has shown nearly zero ability
to create holes for Gordon. The schedule also suggests relying on
Rivers might be the advantageous thing to do.
What to watch for: About the only complaint owners can make about
Chris Johnson is his low reception total (five). Otherwise, it’s
hard to find fault with the player who is keeping pace with Devonta
Freeman in the race for the rushing title. Two of Johnson’s
next three opponents could help him close the gap, although HC Bruce
Arians has suggested he wants to work Ellington into the mix a bit
more often. Palmer and the passing game won’t have it quite
as easy, but owners and fans alike should have a pretty good sense
as to how good this offense really is after visiting Seattle and
hosting Cincinnati following its bye this week.
What to watch for: There’s really only two players owners
need to be concerned with here: Gurley and Austin. For all but a
handful of backs, the Rams’ upcoming schedule would be considered
treacherous. For Gurley, the combination of high volume and once-in-a-decade
talent make November a time for the rookie to prove whether or not
he is already among the top 3-5 running backs in the game. Austin’s
ability to threaten the defense vertically as a receiver and horizontally
(on speed sweeps and out of the backfield) should not be taken for
granted by Gurley owners because it helps creates holes that may
not otherwise be there, but it is Austin’s dual-threat ability
that makes him special. St. Louis’ conservative offensive
nature maybe the biggest thing holding him back from mimicking a
player like T.Y. Hilton.
What to watch for: It’s embarrassing how quickly and how far
the 49ers have fallen. One look at the chart above should serve
as a subtle hint than no San Francisco player belongs in a fantasy
lineup anytime soon. Hyde’s injury makes him irrelevant for
now while Gabbert’s promotion and a grueling November schedule
pretty much steals whatever potential Boldin had as a matchup-based
WR3.
What to watch for: The Seahawks may be at .500 and still in the
thick of things in the NFC West, but make no mistake about it: they
haven’t proven much of anything yet. Consider their victories
(Bears with Jimmy Clausen at quarterback, one-win Lions, Niners
and Tony Romo-less Cowboys). I’m not entirely sure they will
even come out in November with a winning record, but that is a debate
for another time. Perhaps Seattle can benefit from an offensive
line resurgence like the Broncos did during their bye week, but
it’s hard to be optimistic about an unit that has been getting
whipped routinely as pass blockers and run blockers. Lynch will
get his shot to pound San Francisco into submission again in a few
weeks, but he’ll probably be a RB2 in the Seahawks’
other two November games. Double-digit targets in two of the last
three games suggest Graham and Wilson are finding a comfort zone,
but that’s still a pretty small size to get excited about.
Wilson is running enough to keep his fantasy stock afloat, but most
owners were probably hoping for more than one touchdown per game
in seven of his first eight games (including none on the ground)
when they drafted him. The upcoming schedule suggests he has a chance
to change that, but that is far from a given.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
