Le’Veon Bell, Matt Forte, Steve Smith Sr., Keenan Allen and
Brandon Marshall were among a handful of the many valuable players
that saw their week or season cut short in Week 8. Almost without
fail, every NFL season produces a relative (yet figurative) bloodbath
around the middle of the season, which probably makes this point
of the year the most difficult for fantasy owners every season because
of the large number of teams about to enjoy their bye week (six
this week and four more each of the next two weeks).
Consider yourself very lucky if your team(s) was/were unaffected. If there
is one positive that comes out of all these injury-related departures
for fantasy owners every year, it is that typically new and exciting
talent gets a chance to emerge. Because I will be projecting the
next quarter’s worth of statistics for all 32 teams this
week, I will mostly let my projections for each team do the talking
in regards to what players I expect to step up.
Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean
in each team’s projection chart below:
Red – A very difficult matchup.
For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be
used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player,
drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e.
from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one
level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a
RB2).
Yellow – Keep expectations
fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow
matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier
player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall
right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average
production.
White – Basically, this is
a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like
I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these
matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.
Green – It doesn’t
get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is
basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the
elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.
One final note: The gray highlight in each team’s
schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond
to the weeks of the season. The age you see by each player will
be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.
Key to the table below:
PPR - Total points scored in PPR Non - Total points scored in non-PPR.
What to watch for: Amazingly, the Ravens have attempted 325 passes
versus 199 runs. That’s a ratio I expect to even out greatly
as the season progresses now that Steve Smith is done. In the immediate
future, Forsett and Allen should benefit from a favorable schedule
just as much (if not more) than increased volume. Expect Allen to
continue seeing more passes out of the backfield to pick up the
slack for what Smith provided in the short passing game and Aiken
to resume his pseudo WR1 duties that he enjoyed while Smith was
out with a back injury. Breshad Perriman still has no timetable
for return, leaving Givens as the most likely player to be the team’s
deep threat. For what it’s worth, Aiken has a shot to be a
low-end fantasy WR3 in the few weeks following Baltimore’s
bye. Gillmore becomes the overwhelming favorite to be Flacco’s
top target in the red zone, but it remains to be seen if the Ravens
get that close to the goal line consistently for that distinction
to matter.
What to watch for: The Bengals will certainly have challenges in
Weeks 11 and 12, but home games against the Browns and Texans over
the next two weeks should give Hill an opportunity to open up the
second half strong and get on a bit of a roll before Cincinnati
closes the regular season with a handful of strong defenses. Bernard’s
obviously done enough to this point to ensure he will steal anywhere
from 40-60 percent of the snaps just about every week, depending
on game flow and situation; he’s going to remain a RB2 in
all leagues almost regardless of the opponent. Green could easily
have his way in three of the four upcoming games, but it shouldn’t
come as a surprise if he defers to Eifert and Jones at least once
this month. However, that balance should ensure Dalton remains a
top-flight fantasy quarterback.
What to watch for: Week 9 and the insertion of Manziel at quarterback
figures to be the first (and only) thing that will stop Barnidge
in over a month. Johnson will also probably suffer since the second-year
quarterback isn’t typically interested in checking down to
his running back, but Benjamin should still remain a good play regardless.
Assuming McCown is able to return in Week 10, Barnidge will almost
certainly go right back to his top-end TE1 ways while Johnson, who
the coaching staff has said needs to be more involved, will likely
become a more consistent factor in this offense. McCown and Barnidge
have proven to be nearly matchup-proof while Benjamin has a soft
enough schedule that he should be expected to bounce back from a
pair of single-digit fantasy outings.
What to watch for: No team can be expected to seamlessly replace
a talent like Le’Veon Bell, but Williams has already proven
he is capable of giving the Steelers a more-than-serviceable threat
out of backfield. That factor figures to help Pittsburgh in the
short term since the threat of a solid run game should help Roethlisberger,
Brown and Bryant maintain their usual QB1, WR1 and WR2 slots in
fantasy - especially considering the Steelers’ next two opponents
have been relatively easy to throw against in recent weeks. Miller’s
stock already got a boost from Big Ben’s return last week
and it figures to get another one due to a very forgiving schedule.
Williams’ slate is probably the most difficult of all of Pittsburgh’s
skill-position players this month, but his expected volume should
keep him firmly in the RB1 mix.
What to watch for: Forte is expected to miss at least two weeks
with a MCL sprain, but the Bears reportedly believe Langford is
capable of carrying the load in his absence. Even if Forte is forced
to sit three weeks, the rookie’s matchup this weekend is by
far his easiest, so owners need to take that into consideration
when investing in him. It’s a similar story for the passing
game (specifically Cutler and Jeffery), which will be forced to
assume more of the offensive load while the team’s offensive
centerpiece is on the mend. Jeffery’s volume has already become
a lite version of DeAndre Hopkins, although I do expect Wilson and
(to a lesser extent) Royal to help pick up some of the slack left
behind by Forte. It is curious Bennett has visited the end zone
only twice this season; he has a good chance to change that in the
coming weeks against this nonthreatening schedule.
What to watch for: Based on their showing in London last week, not
much. New OC Jim Bob Cooter’s first imprint on this offense
including throwing his support behind Bell, booting Abdullah to
the back of the depth chart and allowing Riddick to operate in the
same fashion he has all season long. It probably doesn’t matter
in the long run, however, since the ground game is unlikely to go
anywhere this season with the offensive line underperforming as
much as any unit in the league. Ebron has typically been hit-or-miss
whenever Brandon Pettigrew has been healthy enough to play, so counting
on him to remain a top 15 PPR tight end going forward is probably
a bit much. With the defense also playing so poorly, volume should
allow Stafford to remain a matchup-based starter. It is that volume
that should allow Johnson, Tate and even Moore to take advantage
of a relatively soft schedule over the next three games despite
some unspectacular quarterback play.
What to watch for: It took a while for the world to notice just
how much the Packers missed Jordy Nelson, but it really became apparent
in Green Bay’s Sunday night loss to Denver in Week 8. With
that said, no other defense in the league is playing nearly as well
as the Broncos, so that needs to be accounted for before owners
panic. The Packers get another stiff test this week against the
Panthers, but we should start seeing a vastly improved Cobb (because
he is presumably healthy) over the next few contests. Green Bay’s
offense as a whole has been a bit of a disappointment, although
I do expect Rodgers to get it clicking a bit more in winnable upcoming
matchups against Detroit and Chicago. Ditto for Lacy, who obviously
didn’t set the world on fire with 47 total yards and a touchdown
versus Denver, but easily outperformed Starks (18 total yards on
nine touches). I think owners are going to have to come to the realization
the first half of the season is what Packers’ offense is going
to be this year. Perhaps it was inevitable due to Nelson’s
absence and the transition from HC Mike McCarthy’s play-calling
to OC Tom Clements’.
What to watch for: If owners have been left a bit wanting as a result
of AP’s production to this point, they should probably first
consider themselves lucky he is one of the few true featured backs
that hasn’t missed a game yet (or already done for the season).
Secondly, he has a very good chance to improve upon his three total
touchdowns thus far in the coming weeks as none of his four opponents
can be considered anything close to an elite run defense (at least
for fantasy purposes). Diggs is almost singlehandedly allowing Bridgewater
to remain in the matchup-based starter conversation at quarterback,
but both players will have their work cut out for them in the weeks
ahead. Rudolph should be worth a spot start a time or two over the
next month – if only because the receivers have a difficult
road – but owners are rolling the dice with him since OC Norv
Turner has chosen to utilize him as a blocker much more this season.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
