Who Missed the Cut in 2020 (6/10): J. Jefferson, D. Adams, S. Diggs, J. Waddle, A. Cooper, & D. Smith

Justin Jefferson couldn’t retain that best WR title from 2022 and didn’t even sniff the Top 10 last year thanks to a balky right hammy, which cost him seven games. His per-game digits were predictably stellar, though (13.6 FPts/G, good for third overall), making him a strong bet to reclaim that Top 10 status. Yes, even with Sam Darnold throwing him passes. Davante Adams will have a new battery mate this season too, which would be great since he dropped from WR2 to WR19 with last year’s motley crew despite playing in all 17 games. So did Stefon Diggs, who will also be working with a new signal caller in 2024. There aren’t many QBs who would be considered an upgrade over Josh Allen, but C.J. Stroud might be one of them before it’s all said and done. Can the Texans’ rising star get the once lethal Diggs back to the promised land?

Jaylen Waddle, Amari Cooper, and DeVonta Smith all missed a game or three, but managed to stay within shouting distance of the Top 10. They finished as WR30, WR16, and WR21, respectively, meaning all six of the 2023 WR dropouts fell no lower than Waddle at WR30. I don’t have time to fully research that and I doubt you care enough for me to do it, but I suspect this 2023 class (returnees and dropouts) ranks as one of the best performing, year-over-year, since I’ve been authoring this series.

Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:

D.J. Moore, CHI: Don’t get too excited, though, because 2023 was likely an anomaly. There always seems to be a Top 10 performer(s) who falls off the cliff. Though I don’t think that’ll be Moore, another beneficiary of a QB upgrade, there are some warning signs. For starters, that QB upgrade is a 22-year old No.1 draft pick who hasn’t played a down in the NFL. Caleb Williams tantalizes with rare athleticism, next-level improvisational skills, and elite arm strength, sure. But it’s a big step up from the defense-optional Pac-12 (RIP) to the NFL grind and some major growing pains should be expected. There’s also no guarantee Moore will be Williams’ favorite target because….

The Bears upgraded their wide receiver room too! Could we see some actual dangerous offense in the Windy City this season? First came Keenan Allen, the long-time Chargers great, whom Chicago signed in mid-March. Then came Rome Odunze, Washington Husky great (literally pains me to write it), acquired in April’s draft. Of the two, Allen is most likely to eat into Moore’s targets. Even at 32 years old, he’s coming off a season wherein he posted a career best 12.8 FPts/G. He also finished as WR11, which is pretty nuts when you consider he played a good chunk of last year without Justin Herbert. Odunze, though the clear WR3 of the bunch, is another big receiver who will outmuscle NFL DBs for a lot of footballs. Meaning right away. He played four collegiate seasons and, in any other draft class, would have been the first WR off the board.

I suspect Moore will be just fine in 2024, but more Top 20 fine than Top 10 fine. Be careful overrating him come draft day now that the cavalry has arrived in Chicago.

Deebo Samuel, SF: This feels risky because if Deebo Samuels plays 17 games, there’s almost a zero percent chance he doesn’t return to the Top 10 in 2024. Did I say 17? I meant 15, which is the most the oft-injured wrecking ball of a wideout has ever played in five NFL campaigns, though he’s still managed to be a Top 10 performer twice (WR2 in 2021). Pound-for-pound, there isn’t a more devastating dual-threat player in the league, to include the guy huddling up with him who will be almost every league’s No.1 pick this draft season, Christian McCaffrey.

CMC is actually one of the reasons, aside from that proneness to injury, I’m concerned about Samuel’s ability to retain his Top 10 status. Back in 2021, he carried the ball 59 times from scrimmage, an absurd number for a WR. That number dropped to 42 in 2022 and then again to 37 last year. For those not doing the math at home, that’s a 37% drop in carries the past two seasons. This would be fine, of course, if Samuel were making up for that relative lack of carries with more targets in the passing game. Nope. His targets have dropped about 26% during that same two-season stretch, from a career high of 121 in 2021 to a more modest 89 last season. For perspective, that’s fewer than half the number CeeDee Lamb commanded last year.

It’s also fewer than Brandon Aiyuk, Samuels’ teammate, commanded. Heck, it’s only six more than McCaffrey himself received! A healthy Deebo is still an incredible luxury for a talent-rich championship contender like San Fran. I’d like to get him on the cheap this Friday when I draft up my 2024 crew. He won’t come cheap, though, so…I’ll look to spend my auction dollars elsewhere.

Nico Collins, HOU: What a difference a great quarterback makes, huh? Collins has only played three seasons in Space City, meaning he missed playing with Deshaun Watson entirely (suspended Collins’ rookie year) and instead muddled through with a revolving door of Davis Mills, Tyrod Taylor, Kyle Allen, and Jeff Driskel before catching fire last season with wunderkind C.J. Stroud under center. The third-year jump was a very real thing for the former Wolverine as he posted career numbers across the board (targets, receptions, yards, YPC, touchdowns, and fantasy points). He also posted a rare three+ yards per route run mark which, according to his FFToday 2024 Outlook blurb, has only been accomplished five times in NFL history. Did not know that.

Here’s what we do know heading into the 2024 season: Collins has company. Stefon Diggs has arrived from Buffalo and it’s probably safe to expect an erstwhile WR1 / Top 10 performer to steal lots of looks from Collins in the Texans’ high-flying offense. I happen to believe Diggs is declining rapidly, but he’s still coming off a WR12 season and didn’t play with the type of WR talent in Buffalo as he will in Houston. Speaking of WR talent, Stroud also has Tank Dell to play catch with. The former Houston Cougar and now Houston Texan missed seven games last season, but still posted a sterling 11.8 FPts/G mark, which put him one tick below…Nico Collins. Stroud and his dynamic trio will ruin some opponents this year, but who does the ruining on a week-in / week-out basis could be unpredictable.

Here’s my prediction: Collins could end up being the best of the three but will also be the most costly (ADP WR14). I’d rather grab Dell on the cheap (ADP WR30). You should do that too..

Next: Quarterbacks