Our final installment in this three-part series focuses on running backs. In this case, we’ll examine two runners who are still in the prime of their careers and hold the potential to be your RB1 if you opted for a WR in the first round of your draft. If, however, you selected a RB in the opening round, these two are premium RB2s.

Both Travis Etienne and Isiah Pacheco are entering their third seasons in the league. Etienne was drafted a year before Pacheco, but missed the entire 2021 season due to a severe foot injury. Both are 25 years old with birthdays only about a month apart. So, from an age and experience standpoint, the two mirror each other. But how do we distinguish one from the other?

The Strengths

Travis Etienne had a decent role in the Jacksonville pass game in 2022 when he caught 35-of-45 targets for 316 yards. Fortunately for those that drafted him in 2023, that role expanded by 28 additional targets, 23 additional receptions and a net gain of 160 yards. For fantasy purposes (PPR), that’s 39 more points coming simply from the increased involvement.

The origin of the increase isn’t hard to decipher. Etienne’s immediate back-up (Tank Bigsby) was only targeted four times and three of those targets resulted in drops. So, did the Jaguars add a pass-catching RB this offseason to fill in that gap? They did not. If Jacksonville had signed a veteran like Antonio Gibson or Austin Ekeler, there might be a concern about regression, but the fact of the matter is that Etienne is going to be in on third downs more often than not making him a three-down back.
Etienne also improved his TD totals in 2023 going from five the previous year to twelve. That’s an additional 42 points making Etienne 81 fantasy points better in 2023 than 2022 based on receptions, receiving yards, and scores.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire was supposed to be Kansas City’s primary back this decade, but the past two seasons, Isaih Pacheco has been the star of the Chief backfield. In 2022, he averaged nearly five yards per carry, but was relegated to only 10 carries per game. That number ballooned to 16 in 2023 alongside an additional 3.4 receptions per game giving Pacheco an overall uptick from approximately 11 touches a contest to 19.4.

And, that receiving role should increase this season with long-time pass down specialist Jerick McKinnon not re-signed. After all, Edwards-Helaire has not been targeted more than 23 times in a season for each of the past three seasons. Similar to Etienne, there simply isn’t much competition for significant snaps currently in this backfield. Pacheco also trimmed his fumbles down from 4 to 1 in 2023 despite the sharp increase in touches. That will earn him trust from the coaching staff as he seeks to have a career year. Finally, just like Etienne, Pacheco had 5 TDs in 2022 only to see that total nearly double (9) in 2023.

The Weaknesses

The most peculiar thing about Etienne’s 2023 season is that it saw a drop in yards per carry from 5.1 the previous year to 3.8 resulting in 47 more carries than year before, but gaining 117 fewer yards on the ground. Typically, that sort of drop off is affiliated with a player who has hit the wall and lost his burst and elusiveness. With Etienne only having played two full seasons, though, that hardly seems like reality. Still, the only other player in the top 20 projected running backs to lose more than 1.2 yards per carry was Josh Jacobs and he’ll get the opportunity to remedy that with a new team.

Someone who breaks down film for a living might be able to detect something technical in Etienne’s game that would account for the drop in production per carry. For now, it’s a cause for concern.

There was no major change in yards per carry from 2022 to 2023 for Pacheco. Yes, he did drop 0.3 yards per carry for the season, but that would be somewhat expected for the increase in workload. That said, he did drop significantly in the yards per reception category from 10.0 yards per reception to a paltry 5.5. That indicates that many of those catches were likely check-downs to avoid sacks versus designed plays.

It is safe to say that with McKinnon not yet re-signed, Pacheco is unlikely to lose touches through the air, but the question remains: Can he make the most of the touches he does get? Moreover, since Kansas City has played well into late-January and sometimes early February the last few seasons, would they risk Pacheco’s playoff availability and explosiveness by increasing his regular season workload from what it was last season?

Just as there are some signs that point to Pacheco having his best year yet in 2024, there are also signs that say we’ve already seen his ceiling and it’s around 200 carries, 900-1,000 yards rushing and just under double digit TDs. Truth be told, those aren’t poor numbers by any means, but they’re RB2 numbers and make Pacheco more worthy of a third-round pick, not a second.

The Verdict

The first thing to consider is how each man ended last season in terms of fantasy production. Etienne, after a torrid start, only scored 79 fantasy points in his final nine games. Pacheco, on the other hand, had 79 points exactly in his last five games, making him the more consistent fantasy producer down the stretch. That said, he also missed two games due to injury and his upright, violent running style sets him up for bigger hits from defensive players and consequently greater injury risk.

Few running backs in the league have weaker competition for touches, so volume should be abundant for both players with Etienne almost certainly on the field for 80% of Jacksonville’s offensive snaps.

Etienne will enjoy seven games this season against rushing defenses that ranked in the bottom ten against the run last year including four against the 30th and 31st ranked Texans and Titans. Pacheco, on the other hand, has only four such match-ups on his schedule and faces two defenses (Denver, LA Chargers) in division who were top ten against the run last year. None of Jacksonville’s divisional foes this year ranked in the top ten against the run last season.

With this in mind, Etienne will get the slight edge in this match-up even with his play down the stretch last season a lingering concern. A little research on that stretch finds the Etienne was consistently playing through a chest injury that no doubt impacted his effectiveness.

Still, there is every indication that Pacheco’s touches will continue to increase and as such, it is our belief that both RBs belong in the top-ten at the RB position, PPR, non-PPR, or otherwise. Draft either with confidence, knowing that both represent the closest thing to a work-horse back that’s left in the modern-day landscape of fantasy football. It’s Etienne for me… but only by the skin of his teeth.

Projected Statistics:

Travis Etienne - 1,155 rushing yards; 65 receptions, 505 receiving yards, 11 total TDs

Isiah Pacheco - 1,130 rushing yards; 56 receptions, 420 receiving yards, 13 total TDs

Best of luck in your upcoming drafts!

Next up: Tale of the Tape - Quarterbacks