One of the most difficult tasks in drafting a fantasy football team
is trying to decide between two players you see as having nearly
identical value. Knowing how to break such a “tie” can
be important, as often a pick comes down to a dilemma between Player
A and Player B. The purpose of this article is to not only identify
pairs of players that are considered of nearly equal value in 2024,
but also take a look at the process of solving those dilemmas.
Our first installment examines two quarterbacks still young enough
to continue improving both as real world QBs and in terms of fantasy
standing.
Kyler Murray was drafted in 2019 and burst onto the scene by throwing
for over 3,700 yards in his rookie season, running for over 500
yards and accumulating 24 overall touchdowns. Then, in his sophomore
campaign, he was even better with over 3,900 yards passing, 800
yards rushing, and 37 TDs including 11 on the ground. In terms
of fantasy production, that made him QB No.3.
But, the past three seasons have included injury and regression.
In 2023, Murray did play in eight games and while his stats were
modest, he was also working with one of the poorer receiving corps
in the league.
Two years after Murray came into the league, Jordan Love entered,
but did not burst onto the scene… at all. In fact, Love
barely played until he was given the reigns in 2023 and what he
did last season has people so excited for his 2024 prospects.
In short, Love did several things that Murray has never done -
namely throw for over 4,000 yards and for 30-plus passing TDs.
He doesn’t have the rushing potential that Murray possesses,
but his ascent has been quick and impressive.
So, which QB is the one to target as your starter for those willing
to wait a bit on acquiring their first signal caller?
The Strengths:
When discussing Murray’s strengths, there is some debate
as to whether or not he will ever be the threat on the ground
that he was prior to his injury in 2022. In his peak year (so
far) of 2020, Murray put forth 8.4 rushing attempts per game.
Last season, in eight games, he only took to the ground 5.5 times
a contest. Still, with a full offseason to continue his recovery,
something in between those two numbers is likely to take place
in 2024. That would make him a threat to run for the type of numbers
he did in his inaugural season. As far as the pass is concerned,
he has potentially a generational talent to throw to in Marvin Harrison Jr. There’s no way to factor in Murray’s
rise this season without including Harrison’s impact. Throw
in an emerging tight end in Trey McBride and you have a quarterback
primed to reach that 4,000-yard mark for the first time assuming
he can stay healthy.
On the other side of the coin, anyone who watched Love carve
up Dallas in the NFC playoffs saw a QB ascending in a big hurry.
Love has the pocket presence and elite offensive coaching necessary
to duplicate last season’s numbers and even build on them.
His receiving corps remains young, but exceedingly deep with Jayden Reed enjoying a solid rookie season and Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and Dontayvion Wicks showing promise over the last two
seasons as well. Watson needs to stay healthy in order for Love
to stretch the field, but at Tale of the Tape, players are declared
healthy to start a season until proven otherwise. As a runner,
Love is not in Murray’s class (see below), but he did score
four times on the ground which does present him with a secondary
way to score fantasy points. All in all, Love has the makings
of an MVP candidate in the next 2-3 years and the Packers committed
a great deal of money to him in a recent contract extension. His
arrow is pointing straight up.
The Weaknesses:
It has been well documented that Murray is not exactly a student
of the game, and while that perception has improved over the past
year or so, it brings about concern that Murray will be able to
jump to the next level in both his overall play and his fantasy
production. And while he is a superior threat running the ball
as compared to Love, we may never see pre-injury Murray again.
His trajectory is difficult to assess because of his injury and
recovery, but the fact remains that he has never thrown for 4,000
yards or more or thrown for more than 26 TDs in a single season.
Even if the stars appear to be aligning for a big season as many
experts predict, the fact that Murray’s never reached those
marks before is cautionary at best.
Love only ran for 14.5 yards per game last year despite playing
nearly every snap for the Packers. Those numbers aren’t
devastating, but do represent a player who depends on his throwing
prowess to produce his fantasy output. In addition, NFL defensive
coordinators now have a full season and offseason to examine tape
and will defend Love differently in 2024. His talent, coaching,
and supporting cast suggests that he’ll be more than able
to make counter adjustments, but it’s also possible that
this season could contain slight regression before a significant
breakout occurs in 2025 or 2026. If we are talking dynasty value,
Love would surpass Murray rather easily. But in a redraft, there
are plenty of reasons to think it may not be Love’s time
just quite yet.
The Verdict:
We must consider what these two quarterbacks did in past, but
also what they are prepared to do in the near future. Kyler Murray’s
next to last game of the 2023 season vs. the Eagles was his best
fantasy game of the season as he led his team to a 35-31 win by
way of passing for three touchdowns alongside 256 total yards.
And, that came about with his top receiver (Marquise Brown) on
IR. With Harrison in the fold, it would be easy to suggest that
Murray could put up those kinds of numbers more weeks than not
in 2024, and it would be logical to think he'll put up the second-best
totals of his career.
How that improvement stacks up against Jordan Love is the question,
and while it’s difficult to say that Love will duplicate
his 2024 totals, it’s fairly easy to say that he won’t
be going backwards. Love may lack the superstar at wide receiver
to throw to, but when looked at in totality, the group surrounding
Love is impressive indeed. The Green Bay offense has grown up/evolved
together and that cohesion was evident last year, particularly
down the stretch. In his last nine games, Love averaged 271 yards
passing with 2.5 touchdowns in those contests. It is that kind
of production that makes many believe that Love’s value
for 2024 exceeds the likes of Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, and Anthony Richardson.
But, does it exceed what Murray is likely to encompass? Some
of that certainly lies in how quickly Murray and Harrison are
able to gel as battery mates and also on how often Murray is willing
to tuck the ball and run. The consensus is that the numbers will
be close, but Murray projects slightly better for 2024 given his
rushing numbers and the perceived uptick in passing output. Beyond
this season, I think Love will go beyond Murray in terms of fantasy
value, but again, this is redraft territory and that makes this
a win for Murray… albeit by just a nose.
