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Truths and Lies - Week 17



By Steve Schwarz | 12/24/25

Life is full of joy and of sadness, and as you prepare for your championship game, you will feel these emotions. But in truth, the joy was in the journey. From belief your team was good on Draft Day, to production on the field and to this chance to grab a ring. It’s been a pleasure to take this ride with you.

Truths

Just because you don't understand it, doesn't mean it isn't so.” - Lemony Snicket

1) Brock Purdy is playing the best ball of his career at the right time for fantasy owners.

True. Hard to argue when you look at his production in Week 15 (31.2 fantasy points) and Week 16 (35.9). With a game scheduled against the Bears (ranked 25th in QB points allowed) and the 49ers still fighting for a chance at a top seed, he figures to help you bring home a title. Not bad for a quarterback who only played seven games this season. Also, if you think this is Kyle Shanahan, not Purdy, you should note Mac Jones averaged 20.8 as a starter (13th-best), but Purdy averaged 24.4 fantasy points (third-best).

Trevor Lawrence

2) Purdy is playing well, but Trevor Lawrence might be the fantasy playoff MVP.

The often maligned quarterback has produced games of 47.6 fantasy points and 34 points in the first two rounds of this year’s playoffs. And a road game against Indianapolis, who just allowed Purdy almost 36 fantasy points bodes well for Championship Week. This is easily Lawrence’s best season since he came out of Clemson and with games against the Colts and Titans could be the best Jaguars season since they went 14-2 in 1999 under lefty quarterback Mark Brunell.

3) In the last 24 seasons, no runner has led the league in FPts/G and been as inefficient running the ball as Christian McCaffrey (3.9 ypc).

Fact. Since 2001, no back ever rushed for less than 4.0 ypc and won the fantasy running back title. McCaffrey, at 25.1 FPts/G, is well ahead of Jahmyr Gibbs (22.7) and Jonathan Taylor (22.6), so it appears the string of 4.0 ypc or better is about to be broken. There are some of my favorite running backs on this list; Priest Holmes, Chris Johnson and LaDainian Tomlinson. They all won me titles.

Year Running Back FPts/G Ru Att Ru Yds YPC
2025 C. McCaffrey 25 280 1039 3.9
2024 S. Barkley 22 345 2005 4.1
2023 C. McCaffrey 25 272 1459 5.4
2022 A. Ekeler 22 204 915 4.5
2021 D. Henry 23 219 937 4.3
2020 A. Kamara 25 187 932 5.0
2019 C. McCaffrey 29 287 1387 4.8
2018 S. Barkley 24 261 1307 5.0
2017 T. Gurley 26 279 1305 4.7
2016 Le'Veon Bell 27 261 1268 4.9
2015 Devonta Freeman 21 264 1061 4.0
2014 Le'Veon Bell 23 290 1361 4.7
2013 Jamaal Charles 26 259 1288 5.0
2012 Adrian Peterson 22 348 2097 6.0
2011 Arian Foster 24 278 1224 4.4
2010 Arian Foster 25 326 1614 5.0
2009 Chris Johnson 25 251 1228 4.9
2008 Brian Westbrook 19 233 936 4.0
2007 Brian Westbrook 25 278 1333 4.8
2006 L. Tomlinson 30 349 1815 5.2
2005 Shaun Alexander 24 370 1880 5.1
2004 Priest Holmes 27 196 892 4.6
2003 Priest Holmes 28 320 1420 4.4
2002 Priest Holmes 32 313 1615 5.2
2001 Marshall Faulk 30 260 1382 5.3

* must have played at least half the season

4) Just when we needed him the most, the Colts’ Jonathan Taylor let us down.

Through Week 10, Taylor was averaging 27.1 FPts/G, but in the five games since then he's averaging a pedestrian 13.4 FPts/G. The first number led the league, the last number ranks 21st among running backs. It's not a coincidence that the Colts quarterback play wasn't up to its early season production. Through the first 10 games Daniel Jones averaged 23.7, but the combination of Jones, Riley Leonard and Philip Rivers has averaged just 17.1 since Week 11. Great quarterback play keeps defenses from loading the box and stopping even elite runners.

5) Kyle Pitts is a top-five fantasy tight end in 2025.

I can't believe I typed that, but it's true. With another solid day in Week 16 (7-57-1), Pitts is averaging 13 FPts/G for the season and ranks No.5 behind only Trey McBride, George Kittle, Tucker Kraft and Brock Bowers. Even the return of Drake London, who looked very slow after four games off due to a PCL injury and could not separate from his defenders, couldn't keep Pitts from producing well.

Lies

“There are two ways to be fooled. One is to believe what isn't true; the other is to refuse to believe what is true.” - Soren Kierkegaard

1) Re-signing Jacoby Brissett should be a top priority for the Arizona Cardinals.

False. Fantasy owners may love his production (24.3 fantasy points in 10 starts), but how can Cardinals management bring back a guy who has led the team to a 1-9 record with him under center? Kyler Murray is definitely on his way out, but I think Brissett will be too. Jonathan Gannon inherited Murray and if the head coach is retained, he figures to want his own choice as quarterback. Arizona currently has the sixth pick in the 2026 draft. This team could be a candidate to move up to get Dante Moore (Oregon) or Fernando Mendoza (Indiana).

2) Neither John Harbaugh nor the OC Todd Monken should be fired for their Derrick Henry usage.

False. Henry, who ran for 128 yards on just 18 carries (7.1 ypc), didn't touch the ball the last 12 minutes and 50 seconds of the game. The Ravens had just scored to go up 24-13 on Henry's second TD run. It's reasonable for Henry to sit when the team is behind, since he's not a big part of the passing game, but when ahead makes this is complete coaching failure. It's particularly egregious when the team's best player, Lamar Jackson, is sidelined due to injury. Why are you trying to win without your two best players on the field?

3) Dak Prescott is to blame for another Dallas Cowboys disaster of a season.

Incorrect. Prescott is the least of this team’s worries. He’s completing 68.5% of his passes for 4,175 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’s averaging 23.2 FPts/G, good enough for seventh in the league. There isn’t an offensive problem in Dallas. It’s the defense. It’s also the General Manager who assembled the defense. The Cowboys won’t win anything until the owner sticks to the business side of football (for which he is excellent) and leaves the personnel side to a professional.

4) Fantasy running backs take the big hits on every play either running or blocking and are the most injured of any position.

Not true. Looking at last season's top-10 (based on FPts/G), just one running back, Joe Mixon, missed significant time (more than three games). Compare that to two top-10 receivers (Chris Godwin and Malik Nabers) and three quarterbacks (Joe Burrow, Jayden Daniels and Brock Purdy). The worst hit position was actually tight ends with four; George Kittle, David Njoku, Sam LaPorta and Taysom Hill.

5) Does this mean they are now the Kansas Chiefs?

Unlikely. In case you had not heard, the Kansas City Chiefs are leaving the city for a new $3 billion domed stadium in Wyandotte County, Kansas. I’m guessing just as the New York Giants and New York Jets play in New Jersey is the same reason the Chiefs will still be the Kansas City Chiefs. (p.s. The Hunt family, worth $25 billion, will receive $1.8 billion in public money. Your tax dollars going to this very important issue… no, not child hunger or medical care).