What is the different between an elite “plug and play”
quarterback and a very good quarterback? The elite one does it week-in
and week-out, while the very good quarterback takes some off days.
We all know that Patrick Mahomes is a “plug and play”
guy. The numbers reflect it. He can play well in any condition
-- whether he has 60,000 adoring fans or 60,000 fans roaring at
130 decibels (jet engine) just as he calls an audible. Look at
his home and road splits. For Mahomes’ career, he averages
24.96 fantasy points per game at Arrowhead Stadium and even more
on the road where he produces 27.49 FPts/G. Josh Allen has similar
splits – 24.27 at home and 26.94 away from High Mark Stadium
in Orchard Park.
Jalen Hurts averages 26.74 at home and 26.04 on the road. That’s
pretty consistent.
But some quarterbacks, some very “big name” guys,
don’t do nearly as well away from their home cookin’.
It’s these guys who you have to worry about and perhaps
have a more capable backup to play a few weeks.
First off, to be start-worthy each week, a quarterback should
produce top-12 fantasy points. In 2023, that meant posting 21.5
fantasy points. Over the last five seasons, the average production
of the No.12 quarterback (based on FPts/G and more than one start)
was 22.2 FPts/G.
Therefore, to be start-worthy both at home and on the road you
should produce 22.2 fantasy points week-in and week-out. Unfortunately,
that’s not always the case. Some guys may have reasonable
excuses for their efforts and you can ignore this, but a few have
significant evidence to alert you to an issue which can be fixed
by making sure you have a quality backup.
Let’s look at six of these guys.
Dak
Prescott, Dallas (FFToday preseason
projections - 5)
Overall Dak Prescott had a great 2023. He threw for 4,516 yards,
36 touchdowns and just nine interception. But let’s look a little
bit closer. He was 8-0 at home averaging 308.8 passing yards with
22 touchdowns, three interceptions and a 120.0 passer rating.
On the road, however, he was 4-5, averaged 227.3 passing yards,
14 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 92.4 passer rating. He
averaged 28.45 fantasy points at home and just 19.89 points away
from Jerry’s place, including three ugly games below 12 fantasy
points (@ NYG, @ SF and @ BUF). This has been a consistent theme
for his entire career. The Cowboys 2024 schedule shows they are
at Cleveland, at Pittsburgh, at San Francisco and at Carolina…
where everyone runs all day long and doesn’t need to pass to beat
the Panthers. Tampa’s schedule matches well with Dallas making
adding Baker Mayfield a possible solution.
The splits on a quarterback like Joe Burrow are startling. He
averages 24.5 FPts/G in the “Jungle” but on the road
he’s produced a paltry 20.9 FPts/G. That’s below start-worthy.
You could consider giving him a pass in 2023 because his season
was filled with injuries to his calf and wrist. But what of his
best seasons - 2021 and 2022? He averaged an excellent 28.4 FPts/G
in Cincinnati and more than four points less (24.1) on the road.
Still great numbers, but concerning.
It’s dangerous to evaluate a rookie’s career based
on so few games, but just consider the following while the C.J.
Stroud hype-train travels faster than the Snowpiercer. In eight
home games Stroud was top-five worthy, producing 25.5 FPts/G and
310.8 passing yards, but away from NRG Stadium he averaged 231.7
yards and just 17.7 FPts/G. Of his seven road games he only produced
the 22.2-point level requirement three times and then just barely.
The other issue is the Texans’ 2023 success means they play
a first-place schedule. At the Packers (No.10 vs. QB scoring)
in Week 7, at the Jets (2) in Week 9, at Dallas (7) in Week 11,
and an ugly “daily-double” in the fantasy semis and
finals of… at Kansas City (4) and the Ravens (3) in Week
17. Stroud may still end up being a top-five quarterback, but
his 2024 road to “elite” will be riddled with deep
potholes.
Brock Purdy heads south during road games. In 10 career home
games he averages 25.2 FPts/G, but away from the Bay he throws
for 70 less yards and produces 4.6 less fantasy points (20.6 FPts/G).
Here’s a fact that should concern fantasy owners who are thinking
of riding with Purdy… his opportunities are very limited. In 16
games he threw just 444 passes (27.8 per game). In only five of
those games did he throw at least 30 passes and only once more
than 33 attempts. That’s the balanced Kyle Shanahan offense. Meanwhile,
Jared Goff threw 605 passes and Sam Howell, Sam Howell mind you,
threw 612 times. On the road Purdy has averaged just 23.7 passing
attempts per game and that’s going to significantly limit his
ceiling.
Jared Goff’s only season with start-worthy numbers was
2018 with the Rams when he threw for 4,688 yards, 32 touchdowns
and averaged 24.1 FPts/G. But in his first three seasons in Detroit
he’s improved each year and with the Lions’ pass-receiving
talent should be able to crack the top-12 for the first time in
five years. With Amon-Ra St. Brown, the potential of Jameson Williams,
Sam LaPorta and the receiving work from Jahmyr Gibbs and an elite
OL, the talent is there for Goff to post very good numbers. On
the other hand his home vs. away splits are why he’s on
this list. He’s produced 20.78 FPts/G at home and 18.52
FPts/G on the road. The variance was even greater last season.
In eight games at Ford Field he averaged 25.2 FPts/G and just
18.0 FPts/G on the road. In particular, he’s a “dome
guy.” His TD-INT ratio is 3-1 in a dome (75-24) and slightly
under 2-1 in the great outdoors (95-52).
Considering the missing pieces Matthew Stafford had to endure
last season with Cooper Kupp missing five early games and star
running back Kyren Williams missing four games from Week 7-10,
Stafford did a nice job. That’s not to say his work was
start-worthy. He averaged just 20.1 FPts/G last season. But at
home he averaged 21.7 versus just 19.7 away from Los Angeles.
A veteran of 15 years shouldn’t have that type of disparity.
Aaron Rodgers has less than a one-point different in 231 games
and 19 seasons. If you select Stafford make sure you have a playoff
backup on hand because his schedule couldn’t be worse. At
San Francisco in Week 15 and at the Jets in the semi-finals the
following weekend.
