- Carl Sagan

Every year since 2011, I have concluded my preseason writing with a bold predictions column. I am not a "hot take" guy, so I will only write about occurrences that could be possible if things go right for each player below. I do not care about shock value. At most, it may only take me being a little more optimistic about a player (than I was on the Big Board) to make it a bold prediction. What I will guarantee with the first seven below is that I will explain how it could happen.

Coaches often talk about burning the tape after a poor performance. That was my effort with my Bold Predictions last season. David Montgomery's performance in 2023 saved me from almost going 0-fer for the season. Then again, that is why they are called bold predictions and not easy money.

Let's see if I can rebound:

1. Patrick Mahomes will have the second-best season of his career.

Why not best? Because I refuse to predict a quarterback will throw for over 5,000 yards AND 50 touchdowns in a season, as Mahomes did in 2018.

For the sake of clarity, let's use passing yards and passing touchdowns as the determining factors for "best." This may not seem like a bold prediction until you consider Mahomes has already thrown for at least 5,000 yards and 40 touchdowns in the same season twice. Since he became a regular starter in 2018, Mahomes is also responsible for the two top-scoring seasons by a fantasy quarterback (443.1 fantasy points in 2018 and 433.8 in 2022).

It is not hard to understand why the two-time MVP lit the NFL world on fire as a rookie. While otherworldly talent helped him get the job done that year, he also had 29-year-old Travis Kelce and 24-year-old Tyreek Hill coming into their own as elite options. The Kareem Hunt-led rushing attack was good but not great and Sammy Watkins did just enough to stretch the defense when he was on the field. It is more of a mystery how pulled off the feat in 2022, as JuJu Smith-Schuster was the only Kansas City wideout who topped 700 yards receiving. A 33-year-old Kelce looked every bit as spry as he did four years earlier, earning 152 targets and finishing with 110 catches for 1,338 yards and 12 touchdowns.

The point to all of this is that while the Chiefs have typically supplied Mahomes with at least one stud (Kelce), they have not done a great job - especially lately - of making things as easy as possible for their quarterback. That likely changes this year, as Kansas City will have two speedsters in Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy opening up the middle of the field for Kelce. Rashee Rice offers contested-catch and run-after-catch ability the team has not had since it traded Hill away. Do not forget that Isiah Pacheco is the new Hunt in this offense, so the play-action game (and subsequent deep shots that will often come as a result) should have more bite than in recent seasons.

My 16-game projections from Mahomes currently stand at 4,955 passing yards and 39 TDs with 12 interceptions. It would not surprise me at all if my yardage projection is very close and my TD projection is a bit on the conservative side.

2. Anthony Richardson will outscore Josh Allen.

This one comes with the caveat that both men play roughly the same number of games. Allen was a key part of the fantasy team that made last year a very profitable season for me, so spare me any of the "hater" talk. He is a certifiable stud. The problem in 2024 is not with him per se, but the new environment in Buffalo. He proved he did not need to lean on Stefon Diggs anymore, but the bigger problem now is that defenses also do not have to account for the presence of Diggs either. That shifts the mantle of alpha dog receiver from Diggs to … Dalton Kincaid? The second-year tight end is a more than capable receiving option, already living up to my 2023 pre-draft comp of Greg Olsen with a stellar rookie season. Again, talent is not the issue with him. However, asking him to go from a nice second option as a rookie to the focal point of defensive game plans in Year 2 is putting a ton of faith in Allen's greatness and the coaching staff's desire to feed Kincaid the ball - something it was inconsistent in doing when Dawson Knox was healthy last season.

Khalil Shakir and Curtis Samuel are very good complementary receivers beyond Kincaid, but neither one will command the amount of attention Diggs could. While Keon Coleman should be a very good contest-catch option immediately, I struggle to see how he will change much for Allen or the offense in 2024. Losing C Mitch Morse to the Jaguars in free agency also does not help the cause for what was a middling offensive line at best in 2023.

Perhaps the bigger issue is Allen's playing style and what Brady asked him to do once he took over play-calling duties after Week 10 last season. Over Buffalo's final nine games (including the postseason), Allen averaged 9.2 carries (almost twice as many as he did in the first 10 games under former OC Ken Dorsey). That would put him on a 17-game pace for 156 carries, which would be 32 more rushing attempts than his career high. While Allen figures to remain the primary option at the goal line, rookie Ray Davis will probably end up stealing at least a third of those opportunities this year. It also seems highly unlikely Allen will come anywhere close to 15 rushing scores again. On the topic of Allen and rushing, he is one of only six quarterbacks in league history to carry the ball at least 100 times in his age-27 season. Only two did so in their age-28 season (Michael Vick and Cam Newton). The point: the end of Allen's rushing prowess is coming soon, whether it happens this year or next.

Perhaps the rushing angle is being overplayed and the Bills will go pass-heavy again this year. OK, well, it would seem as though I already explained why that may not be the best thing for Allen. Along with a brutal series of difficult secondary matchups during the middle of the season (MIA, HOU, NYJ, SEA, TEN, MIA, SF, DET), the road might be too tough to navigate without a superstar receiver. While Allen will overcome some of those difficult defenses, I expect him to have his worst season since the year before Diggs joined him in 2019.

Even with Allen having a bad season by his standards, he will still set a very high bar if he ends up as the overall QB4 as I have him ranked on my Big Boards. For another (unexpected) quarterback to outperform him, it will take someone with a similar or higher floor as a runner who is either very accurate or plays on an offense that will push the tempo (preferably both). Richardson may not be overly accurate by today's standards, but he is easily one of the best athletes to ever play the position. Play volume also should not be a problem, nor should his offensive line. I have eight green matchups on his schedule, which ranks second among all quarterbacks on my Big Board (Jalen Hurts; nine).

IF Richardson can play all 17 games, it seems perfectly reasonable that he could and will rush for at least 1,000 yards. It seems reasonable to conclude that a 250-pound quarterback who rushed for four TDs in parts of four games as a rookie should be able to go for at least 10 in what should be a more explosive offense in 2024. That gives us 160 fantasy points already as a rusher. An expectation of at least 200 passing yards per game is not a lot to ask, which would give Richardson 3,400 over a 17-game season (136 fantasy points). That puts Richardson on the precipice of 300 fantasy points before counting any passing scores. While I projected him for 19 in 14 games, he could easily throw for 25 in 17 contests to an underrated receiving corps of Michael Pittman Jr., Josh Downs and Adonai Mitchell. Allen will need to fall back to earth a bit post-Diggs and Richardson will need to show an ability to protect himself for this prediction to happen, but the odds of this prediction happening are not as long as they might seem.

3. Neither Rachaad White nor James Cook will finish as a top-15 running back.

This one is a bit on the spicy side since White was the overall RB4 in 2024 and Cook was the RB11, but it is reflected on my PPR Big Boards. The rationale for this prediction does not require a ton of explanation.

White's breakout campaign a year ago was built almost entirely on volume. While the third-year back should benefit from improved offensive line play, he has never been great after contact - going back to his college days - and gets a downgrade at offensive coordinator (going from Dave Canales to Liam Coen). White's biggest issue, however, is that Tampa Bay spent a fourth-round pick on Bucky Irving, who may not be built like a feature back at 5-9 and 192 pounds but runs with more conviction and power than his new teammate. While it seems unlikely that White will lose much work in the passing game even though Irving is a very good receiver, the coaching staff probably will not hesitate to split the rushing workload a bit more after White handled just over 75 percent of the backfield carries last season. That will almost certainly be the case if White struggles out of the gate this year as he did in 2023.

Cook is also scary for many of the same reasons White is but comes in a smaller package. He is about the same size as Irving (listed at 5-11 and 190 pounds). He is not an elite athlete by any means and wore down late last season. (He failed to crack four yards-per-carry in four of his last five games - and the Bills did not start relying heavily on him until midseason.) His touchdown upside is minimal, if only because Buffalo trusts Josh Allen the most near the goal line. Is he the surefire early-down back? Rookie Ray Davis might be that guy from time to time this year.

What we seem to have here is a smallish back who probably should not be handling much more than 200 touches with low touchdown upside. The offensive line took a hit when Mitch Morse left for Jacksonville and the offense as a whole took a hit when Buffalo traded away Stefon Diggs. Who is stretching the defense for the Bills this year? Cook was drafted to be a passing-down weapon by the current regime. Expect Cook and Davis to share the load more often than not in 2024.

4. Kenneth Walker AND James Conner will finish among the top 12 scorers at running back.

I am going to leave myself a little bit of wiggle room with this projection and base it on a points-per-game basis due in large part to Conner's injury history. Nevertheless, the case with both players is relatively simple. With Walker, neither new HC Mike Macdonald nor OC Ryan Grubb has a stake in making sure one or the other looks good so they can look good. Walker is a much more dynamic and explosive back than Zach Charbonnet, so the question comes down to whether Walker has earned Grubb's trust in pass pro. He is also an underrated receiver. One of the things I learned long ago: there is a difference between a running back who struggles to catch the ball and one who does not get many opportunities to do it. Walker's 78 percent career catch rate would seem to suggest his hands are just fine.

There is more to like. The offensive line should be much healthier this year (although RT Abe Lucas is currently injured) and will likely be a lot better with C Connor Williams and rookie OG Christian Haynes expected to start. Last but certainly not least, Grubb's offense will almost certainly play at a faster pace and throw downfield more often, which is exactly what fantasy managers should want to hear when they put their faith into a highly explosive and efficient running back like Walker. The only thing that is standing in the way of Walker living up to this prediction is if virtually every report to come out of Seattle this summer was a lie and the new staff values the power of Charbonnet. That seems unlikely in what should be an up-tempo attack.

The wheels will almost certainly fall off Conner at some point. With that said, he is a 29-year-old power back with only 1,359 career touches. Betting on running backs pushing 30 years of age is typically a losing bet, but the difference with Conner is that he has a good grasp on the starting job and is going in the RB2/3 range in most drafts. The beauty of his profile is that he is coming off his best season (5.0 YPC and first 1,000-yard season) and the clear goal-line option in what should be an ascending offense in 2024. More than that, some of the metrics fantasy managers should care most about - such as averaging a broken tackle every 7.7 carries (second among qualified backs) and 2.2 yards after contact in 2023 - suggest there is still plenty left in the tank. Arizona loves the physicality he brings to the table and the leadership he provides. While that last bit may not mean much in the fantasy realm, it typically means the coaching staff will keep going back to him even if he struggles from time to time.

It took a few games for OC Drew Petzing to figure out how to best use Conner and Kyler Murray when they both were healthy, but the two-time Pro Bowler had a magical run to end the season. In Weeks 13-18 (even including a Week 14 bye), Conner outperformed every non-quarterback in fantasy. (Keep in mind this was during a time Hollywood Brown barely played.) The arrival of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the continued development of Trey McBride only figures to make life easier for Conner. While the threat of Trey Benson and Conner's injury history loom, Benson was likely drafted more with an eye on 2025. This backfield should be Conner's all year long.

5. Garrett Wilson will finish as the overall WR1.

Do I believe this will happen? No. Do I believe it could happen? Absolutely. That is why it is a bold prediction! Wilson ran a league-high 674 routes last season. His 168 targets ranked fourth. However, he ranked 215th in catchable pass rate (76.1 percent, per Fantasy Points Sports Data Suite). It is probably safe to say that we have seen Wilson's floor over his first two seasons. With Zach Wilson, Trevor Siemian, Tim Boyle, Joe Flacco, Mike White and Chris Streveler accounting for most of the throws in his direction, Wilson has still somehow averaged 89 catches for 1,073 yards. What does that tell us? He gets open A LOT.

Earlier this summer, I wanted to get a sense of what Wilson's upside was, so I reviewed Aaron Rodgers' last four full seasons with the Packers and Davante Adams. In Adams' last four seasons before the trade to Vegas, Adams' lowest target share was 23 percent. In the other three years, it was 27 or 29%. That information is secondary to what I am about to tell you: Adams' lowest catch rate was 65% but was higher than 72% every other year. Through his first two NFL seasons, Wilson's catch rate has been exactly 56.5 percent both times.

For the sake of illustrating his upside, let's assume Wilson earns 153 targets this year - which is an average of nine per game but 15 fewer targets than last year - and a yards-per-catch average of 12.1 (which is his career mark but should be higher due to his run-after-catch ability). Let's also assume a catch rate of 65 percent, which was the lowest mark of Adams' final run with Rodgers. Last but not least, Adams averaged 14 touchdown catches over his last four seasons with Rodgers. I do not want to project Wilson for that, but eight is a reasonable floor to account for the possibility Rodgers may miss time.

Wilson's final projected line would be 99 catches for 1,203 yards and eight touchdowns. That is essentially what Ja'Marr Chase did last year, and I think I established that I was setting Wilson's floor when I began this example. I think 120 catches, 1,500 yards and 10-plus touchdowns are all well within reach for Wilson if Rodgers stays healthy and is the same quarterback we remember him being. Helping his cause further is the Jets' improved offensive line (which should force teams to play the run more often and leave Wilson in more one-on-one situations) and Mike Williams, who is one of the better field-stretching receivers in the league when healthy.

There are several ways this prediction could go sideways, but the Jets did well to land Tyrod Taylor in free agency. He should be able to keep the offense afloat (and feed Wilson) if Rodgers misses time. New York also has more quality depth up front as well. Either way, Wilson appears poised to blow past most of his previous career highs in 2024.

6. Terry McLaurin will finish as a top-15 receiver.

Take a quick look at Washington's team receiving numbers from last year. Focus on the targets. After McLaurin, the Commanders' next four highest target earners are no longer with the team. (Curtis Samuel, 91; Jahan Dotson, 83; Logan Thomas, 78; Antonio Gibson, 59). The team did well to upgrade at tight end (Zach Ertz and rookie Ben Sinnott) and running back (Austin Ekeler), but it seems unlikely that Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus and Luke McCaffrey can adequately replace Samuel and Dotson - at least not right away. The easiest argument against McLaurin living up to this prediction is that the Commanders are unlikely to throw the ball 636 times again in 2024. That is a fair point. One of the counters to that argument is that the last time OC Kliff Kingsbury called plays in the NFL (2022), the Cardinals attempted 664 passes. Part of the reason for Arizona's pass-happy ways that year was a poor defense. Despite some massive upgrades in Washington this spring, the Commanders' defense is unlikely to be much better than it was last season.

McLaurin is not the same kind of receiver as DeAndre Hopkins, but he is expected to play the same spot in Kingsbury's offense: primarily as the X who almost exclusively lines up on the left side of the field. In 35 games with Kingsbury as his play-caller, Hopkins averaged 6.3 catches for 77 yards. "Scary Terry" is a more traditional receiver than Hopkins and relies more on speed and route-running as opposed to physicality, which increases the odds he will get open and see more targets from a young quarterback like Jayden Daniels. It seems very likely that Kingsbury will rely somewhat heavily on RPO (run-pass option) concepts that make Daniels' decision-making easier and quicker while also highlighting his athletic ability. The pass route that is usually associated with a RPO is a slant. It is usually the only read a quarterback makes before he chooses to run. The recipient of that pass play off RPO action will likely be McLaurin about 90 percent of the time.

Of course, I am not basing this prediction (or my 16-game projection of 84-1,157-7) on the likelihood that he will be the main target on a particular type of offensive play that might be called 10 or 15 percent of the time in 20254. As things currently stand, Washington has Brown and Zacchaeus - two receivers who have been little more than field-stretchers to this point of their careers - and three players who will probably operate within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage (Ertz, McCaffrey and Ekeler). That leaves McLaurin - who will see his fair share of short targets - as about the only Commander who will consistently do damage in the 10-19 yard range of the field.

It is time to discuss the real reason why McLaurin may have the best season of his career: Daniels. While he may not be the athletic freak that Malik Nabers is, McLaurin will likely remind his new quarterback a fair amount of his old college teammate. Daniels will also be, without question, the best quarterback McLaurin has played with during his time in the NFL. That alone should be enough to cement McLaurin as a solid fantasy WR2 this year with occasional WR1 upside. He should build on last season's 132 targets and do so with a better (and more accurate) quarterback.

7. Travis Kelce will return to the mountaintop at tight end and outscore his positional brethren by at least 30 fantasy points.

One thing I did not expect entering high-stakes drafting season was Kelce falling into the fourth round (sometimes, late fourth round) of drafts. The 34-year-old logged 75 percent of his team's snaps only once in his first five outings and missed two games for the first time since his rookie season in 2013. He famously sat out Week 1 last year with the knee injury he suffered about a week before the season opener and was not quite right for at least two more weeks after that. Kansas City had no one to stretch the field and open up the middle of the field for him. The result: 93 catches, 984 yards and five touchdowns. Was it his worst fantasy season since 2016? Yes. Are there easily explainable reasons why it happened? Yes.

Ask the Kelce doubters in your league why they are down on him this year. Almost without fail, they will point to his age (35 in October) or the Chiefs' desire to cut back his snaps until playoff time. Age will inevitably catch up with Kelce at some point, but that song has been sung for most of this decade. As far as his snaps being reduced, are we to believe Patrick Mahomes' favorite target will not be the first or second read on virtually every pass play he is on the field? Kansas City's offense will be exponentially better in 2024 if only because defenses will have little choice but to respect the Chiefs' perimeter speed. Kelce would be the first to say that he is not what he once was athletically, but he knows how to get open against zone (which is played over 70 percent of the time in the NFL now). The four-time All-Pro is annually one of the most targeted players in the red zone to boot. The difference this year is that his teammates will be making his job easier and not the other way around.

After experiencing the first "down year" of his career with Mahomes as his quarterback, Kelce should be expected to push for 100 catches for the fourth time in his career and top 1,000 yards for the eighth time. In this offense, he could visit the end zone 10 or more times for the fourth time in his career.

Bonus bold predictions:

• Jared Goff will finish second to Mahomes for league MVP.

• Jaylen Wright will be the most valuable fantasy running back in Miami by the end of the season.

• Once he recovers from his preseason high-ankle sprain, Josh Downs will finish with more catches than Michael Pittman Jr.

• Kyle Pitts will score more fantasy points than Sam LaPorta.