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What is Real?



By Doug Orth | 9/13/24 |

Post-Week 1 fantasy football content typically attempts to do the near impossible: draw solid long-term conclusions from a one-game sample. Why does the industry do this? Because 7.1 percent of the season passes at the conclusion of every weekend during a 14-game fantasy regular season. At least two teams are on bye in half of those 14 weeks, meaning we get our full complement of players only seven times before the fantasy playoffs. In short, the urgency to win is magnified every week - perhaps even more so in those seven "full" weeks.

Another thing post-Week 1 content tries to do is calm the masses after a few highly regarded players suffered a multi-week injury or failed to meet expectations. Managers can (and should) prepare for key players missing time because injuries are unavoidable in football, but they can only do so much to replace a first-round talent - especially in early September. If we knew there was a carbon copy of Puka Nacua available in the 14th round on draft day, he would not be available that late.

However, panic is the one avoidable behavior that occurs every year around this time, usually because of a player we believe is underperforming (or failing to perform up to his fantasy draft slot). Panic (or fear) is usually the product of ignorance. Ignorance in this industry is usually the result of not watching every game (or the right ones at least). Panic serves no purpose as a fantasy manager, other than maybe keeping them from winning a league (or multiple leagues).

I will not go so far as to say the two points below are solid long-term conclusions to a one-game sample. However, I feel good enough about each one to believe they have a great chance of happening.

Baker Mayfield

I did not believe that Baker Mayfield would thrive without Dave Canales, but I think he will.

There is an argument to be made that Mayfield's success last season and in Week 1 is more about his supporting cast in Tampa Bay (Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan among others) than anything he is doing well. His emergence could be written off as nothing more than facing mostly low-quality pass defenses he has faced since Week 10 last season. I naturally assumed - as I am sure many others did - that the departure of Canales (last year's offensive coordinator) would be something of a crushing blow to Mayfield from a fantasy perspective - much as it seemed to be for Geno Smith the year prior.

Let's take a look at Mayfield's last few games, shall we?

 Baker Mayfield's Last 12 Games
Year-Week Opp Cmp Att PYds TDs INTs Ru Att Ru Yds Ru TDs FPTs
2023-10 TEN 18 29 278 2 1 3 12 0 20.3
2023-11 at SF 29 45 246 1 1 3 5 0 14.3
2023-12 at IND 20 30 199 2 1 3 14 0 17.4
2023-13 CAR 14 29 202 1 1 2 -2 0 11.9
2023-14 at ATL 14 29 144 2 0 3 3 1 20.1
2023-15 at GB 22 28 381 4 0 2 -2 0 31.0
2023-16 JAC 26 35 283 2 0 5 5 0 19.8
2023-17 NO 22 33 309 2 2 1 -1 0 20.3
2023-18 at CAR 20 32 137 0 0 5 7 0 6.2
2023-Wild Card PHI 22 36 337 3 0 2 16 0 27.1
2023-Div Rd at DET 26 41 349 3 2 2 15 0 27.5
2024-1 WAS 24 30 289 4 0 3 21 0 29.7
Totals 257 397 3154 26 8 34 93 1 246
Avg (12 games) 21.4 33 263 2 0.7 2.8 7.75 0 20.5
Pace (17 games) 364 562 4468 37 11 48 132 1 348

How much longer can we call Mayfield a product of his environment and not give him the credit he deserves? It may have taken his two touchdown throws to Evans in the opener to make me a believer, but I am there now. For the purposes of this discussion, it is not all that important Evans does a lot to make him look good. What is important for fantasy managers is that Mayfield is consistently putting the ball in spots Evans can win. With Godwin not back to his home in the slot and McMillan also making plays, life is good for the former Heisman Trophy winner. While Mayfield's lack of rushing upside and occasional dud against some of the best pass defenses serves as a reminder he is not a set-it-and-forget-it fantasy QB1, we have to acknowledge he has thrown for at least three touchdowns in his last three outings and accounted for multiple scores in seven of his last eight.

Managers of Terry McLaurin and Marvin Harrison Jr. need to forget Week 1 ever happened.

Beginning with the veteran, McLaurin was a victim of a few things out of his control. Jayden Daniels only dropped back 33 times and attempted 24 throws. (By comparison, Matthew Stafford threw to Cooper Kupp 21 times on Sunday night!) The No. 2 overall pick's average depth of target was a meager 5.2 yards. Daniels only attempted one throw longer than 15 yards and ran 16 times. He looked like a rookie making his first NFL start, especially early. That's OK. One reason that was the case: Tampa Bay blitzed him 42.4 percent of the time in the opener.

It was clear from the opening drive that OC Kliff Kingsbury had a problem that did not have a great answer: he had a rookie quarterback making his first start working behind a sub-par offensive line and facing a blitz-happy defensive coach (Todd Bowles). It appears almost as if Kingsbury drilled into Daniels' mind that he would only have enough time to make one read before it was time to run - assuming he didn't throw a pass in the flat to a running back. It was almost disturbing how often Daniels did not bother to look left (where McLaurin lined up on 41-of-48 snaps). Daniels opted to throw to his first read on 75 percent of his throws, while McLaurin was the first read on only 16.7 of Washington's first read and designed targets. This kind of thing will happen when a quarterback is making his first professional start, especially when facing a blitz on almost half of his drop-backs and the defense is taking steps to eliminate his top target.

With that said, Daniels may have been more "rusty" than anything. Young quarterbacks need more reps to adjust to the difference in speed from college football to preseason football to regular-season football. What amounts to a half of preseason action (29 snaps) is not close to enough. That is not fair to them or their development.

Yet, the one deep attempt Daniels unleashed - one that would have gone for a 70-yard score to begin the second half - is likely a pass he will connect with McLaurin on in a week or two. Better days are ahead, perhaps as soon as this weekend against the Giants. CB Nick McCloud (knee) may not play, while Deonte Banks and Cor'Dale Flott have yet to experience much success in their young careers. McLaurin figures to draw Banks the most on Sunday, but it probably does not matter who guards him the most. New York's corners may be the worst in the league. I cannot explain why Kingsbury did not design more touches for McLaurin, but the new play-caller will not keep his job very long if he doesn't start.

Harrison's day was eerily similar to McLaurin's. The major differences: Harrison suffered an early drop and was never targeted deep. The three deep throws Kyler Murray uncorked went to Trey McBride (two) and Greg Dortch (one). It is also worth noting that a Buffalo defense that did not change much in the offseason was stingy against receivers last season, finishing seventh in the fewest fantasy points allowed to the position. They are off to a similar start in 2024 after keeping Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill in check in Week 2 (combined seven catches for 65 yards). This comes on the heels of holding the three Arizona receivers who found the box score to eight catches for 56 scoreless yards. Miami's lack of success against Buffalo may be the best reason to treat Harrison's Week 1 as a mirage. He is still one of the most complete receiver prospects to enter the league in a while and he has a quarterback capable of helping him fulfill his potential.

Fantasy managers should also take note of this: OC Drew Petzing admitted being "a little bit surprised" with the amount of respect the Bills paid Harrison early in the opener. Does that excuse the lack of targets Harrison saw? Not really, if only because offensive coordinators can create designed looks for their playmakers just as much as defensive coordinators can throw the kitchen sink at one player to make sure he does not singlehandedly beat them. However, combined with the knowledge that the Bills are good at stifling most receivers, it makes sense why Harrison had a slow day at the office.

While Harrison's upcoming matchup does not project to be as favorable as McLaurin's, I would feel much more confident in Harrison's ability to connect on a deep pass with Murray after watching Jameson Williams handily beat Tre'Davious White on a double move last week. Harrison and Williams are not the same kind of receiver, but it is not a prerequisite for all vertical threats to run sub-4.4. Can you sell the route, track the ball and win in contested catch situations (if necessary)? Harrison can do that just as well - if not better - than Williams can. Expect Petzing to get his prized rookie involved early and often in Week 2 against the Rams.


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and joined the Fantasy Points website before the start of the 2024 season. He is also a highly successful high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst on Sirius XM. Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Please check out his new podcast with JJ Wenner called "The All-Out Blitz."