One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for
any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players
have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's
and Dalvin Cook's of the world come immediately to mind, but we
need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land
either one of those players.
To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided
to take a position-by-position look at each player that enjoyed
rarified air over the last six seasons. By using the best of the
best in each position group over a six-year period as the basis
for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic
parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.
There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players
appearing multiple times on the list). It is also OK to view this
series of articles as something of a correlational study or a
series of interesting facts, but there's more value in this kind
of analysis than that. My top priority is trying to establish
what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position,
especially considering the different styles of players that exist
in the game.
Each position during this four-part series will be divided into
multiple groups for the express purpose of challenging how you
currently think about the position (and its upside). The "Rk"
column to the left of each player's name is where he finished
among his peers over the six years of this study. (For example,
Cook's 2020 season ranked 10th among all running backs in the
last six years.) Running backs were split into the following groups:
Workhorse - At least 220 carries and/or 300-plus
total touches Run-heavy - More than 220 carries AND 48 or fewer
targets Tweener - Fewer than 220 carries a run-heavy
back AND fewer than 275 touches Satellite - Fewer than 160 carries AND more than
48 targets
Take note that a particular running back may appear in multiple
tables. While that is not ideal, running backs are not necessarily
asked to do the same things or take on the same role in an offense
year after year. Sometimes they need to assume more of the rushing
workload in some years more than they do others. Workhorses may
get hurt or demoted, tweeners may be asked to take on more of
a satellite role and so on. I also acknowledge that while some
of the observations I will make over the next two weeks are somewhat
obvious, they often bear repeating.
Below each table will be another table that summarizes the averages
of each group as well as the group minimum and maximum. The cutoff
at running back for this study was 200 fantasy points (top 87
performances in the last six years).
Workhorses (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Car
RuYds
RuTDs
Tgt
Rec
ReYds
ReTDs
1
Christian McCaffrey
2019
23
CAR
471.2
287
1387
15
142
116
1005
4
2
David Johnson
2016
25
ARI
407.8
293
1239
16
120
80
879
4
3
Saquon Barkley
2018
21
NYG
385.8
261
1307
11
121
91
721
4
4
Christian McCaffrey
2018
22
CAR
385.5
219
1098
7
124
107
867
6
5
Todd Gurley
2017
23
LAR
383.3
279
1305
13
87
64
788
6
7
Todd Gurley
2018
24
LAR
372.1
256
1251
17
81
59
580
4
9
Le'Veon Bell
2017
25
PIT
341.6
321
1291
9
106
85
655
2
10
Dalvin Cook
2020
25
MIN
337.8
312
1557
16
54
44
361
1
12
Ezekiel Elliott
2018
23
DAL
329.1
304
1434
6
95
77
567
3
15
Le'Veon Bell
2016
24
PIT
317.4
261
1268
7
94
75
616
2
16
Devonta Freeman
2015
23
ATL
316.4
265
1056
11
97
73
578
3
17
Aaron Jones
2019
25
GB
314.8
236
1084
16
68
49
474
3
18
Ezekiel Elliott
2019
24
DAL
311.7
301
1357
12
71
54
420
2
20
LeSean McCoy
2016
28
BUF
298.3
234
1267
13
57
50
356
1
21
Kareem Hunt
2017
22
KC
295.2
272
1327
8
63
53
455
3
23
DeMarco Murray
2016
28
TEN
293.8
293
1287
9
67
53
377
3
24
Dalvin Cook
2019
24
MIN
292.4
250
1135
13
63
53
519
0
25
Melvin Gordon
2017
24
LAC
288.1
284
1105
8
83
58
476
4
26
Devonta Freeman
2016
24
ATL
284.1
227
1079
11
65
54
462
2
28
Mark Ingram
2017
28
NO
278.0
230
1124
12
71
58
416
0
31
David Montgomery
2020
23
CHI
264.8
247
1070
8
68
54
438
2
32
LeSean McCoy
2017
29
BUF
263.6
287
1138
6
77
59
448
2
34
Leonard Fournette
2019
24
JAC
259.4
265
1152
3
100
76
522
0
36
Nick Chubb
2019
24
CLE
255.2
298
1494
8
49
36
278
0
38
Melvin Gordon
2016
23
LAC
250.6
254
997
10
57
41
419
2
39
James Robinson
2020
22
JAC
250.4
240
1070
7
60
49
344
3
41
David Johnson
2018
27
ARI
246.6
258
940
7
76
50
446
3
43
Joe Mixon
2018
22
CIN
243.4
237
1168
8
55
43
296
1
48
Carlos Hyde
2017
27
SF
233.8
240
938
8
88
59
350
0
57
Jordan Howard
2016
22
CHI
230.1
252
1313
6
50
29
298
1
60
Ezekiel Elliott
2020
25
DAL
223.7
244
979
6
71
52
338
2
62
Todd Gurley
2019
25
LAR
219.4
223
857
12
49
31
207
2
68
Le'Veon Bell
2019
27
NYJ
215.0
245
789
3
78
66
461
1
78
Latavius Murray
2015
25
OAK
204.8
266
1066
6
53
41
232
0
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Car
RuYds
RuTDs
Tgt
Rec
ReYds
ReTDs
28
Group Average
-
24.4
-
296.0
263.0
1174.4
9.6
78.2
60.0
489.7
2.2
1
Group Minimum
-
21
-
204.8
219
789
3
49
29
207
0
78
Group Maximum
-
29
-
471.2
321
1557
17
142
116
1005
6
Observations
* The top five fantasy running
back performances, six of the first seven and seven of the first
nine from 2015-20 fall into this group. In fact, 29 of the top
48 efforts over the last six years are by running backs in this
group.
* The average age of this group is 24.4. Unsurprisingly, 27 of
the 34 entries were 25 or younger. None of them was 30 or older
and only four were at least 28.
* The first seven running back entries in this group were targeted
at least 81 times.
* Only four of the 34 workhorses above scored fewer than eight
total touchdowns. When we look at each of the cases more closely,
it is not hard to understand why those particular four failed
to do so.
Tweeners (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Car
RuYds
RuTDs
Tgt
Rec
ReYds
ReTDs
6
Alvin Kamara
2020
25
NO
377.8
187
932
16
107
83
756
5
8
Alvin Kamara
2018
23
NO
354.2
194
883
14
105
81
709
4
27
James Conner
2018
23
PIT
280.0
215
973
12
71
55
497
1
30
Melvin Gordon
2018
25
LAC
275.5
175
885
10
66
50
490
4
35
Aaron Jones
2020
26
GB
258.9
201
1104
9
63
47
355
2
40
Alvin Kamara
2019
24
NO
248.5
171
797
5
97
81
533
1
42
Saquon Barkley
2019
22
NYG
244.1
217
1003
6
73
52
438
2
45
Mark Ingram
2019
30
BAL
242.5
202
1018
10
29
26
247
5
46
Mark Ingram
2016
27
NO
242.2
205
1043
6
58
46
319
4
52
Lamar Miller
2015
24
MIA
231.9
194
872
8
57
47
397
2
53
DeAngelo Williams
2015
32
PIT
231.4
200
907
11
47
40
367
0
56
Kareem Hunt
2018
23
KC
230.2
181
824
7
35
26
378
7
61
Phillip Lindsay
2018
24
DEN
222.8
192
1037
9
47
35
241
1
63
Miles Sanders
2019
22
PHI
218.7
179
818
3
63
50
509
3
64
Kareem Hunt
2020
25
CLE
218.5
198
841
6
51
38
304
5
69
Matt Forte
2015
30
CHI
214.7
218
898
4
58
44
389
3
70
Kenyan Drake
2019
25
2TM
214.2
170
817
8
68
50
345
0
73
Latavius Murray
2016
26
OAK
208.2
195
788
12
43
33
264
0
74
Nick Chubb
2020
25
CLE
207.7
190
1067
12
18
16
150
0
75
Mike Davis
2020
27
CAR
206.5
165
642
6
70
59
373
2
77
Isaiah Crowell
2016
23
CLE
205.1
198
952
7
53
40
319
0
79
Mark Ingram
2015
26
NO
203.4
166
769
6
60
50
405
0
81
Dion Lewis
2017
27
NE
203.0
180
896
6
35
32
214
3
83
Antonio Gibson
2020
22
WAS
202.2
170
795
11
44
36
247
0
85
Derrick Henry
2018
24
TEN
201.4
215
1059
12
18
15
99
0
86
Devonta Freeman
2017
25
ATL
200.2
196
865
7
47
36
317
1
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Car
RuYds
RuTDs
Tgt
Rec
ReYds
ReTDs
57
Group Average
-
25.2
-
236.3
191.3
903.3
8.6
57.0
44.9
371.6
2.1
6
Group Minimum
-
22
-
200.2
165
642
3
18
15
99
0
86
Group Maximum
-
32
-
377.8
218
1104
16
107
83
756
7
Observations
Note: The players above do not quite qualify
for any of the other groups because it is difficult to consider
a back with fewer than 220 carries a run-heavy back or fewer than
275 touches a workhorse. Similarly, backs with 200-plus touches
are not satellites. It is also important to note that 13 players
in this group missed multiple games, so there a few players that
could have been considered workhorses. Thus, it may be difficult
to draw many strong conclusions from this collection of misfit
toys.
* Not surprisingly, players in this group need to be masters
of efficiency. Twenty-one of the 26 instances above averaged at
least 4.5 yards per carry. Seventeen of the 26 averaged at least
eight yards per reception. Thirteen of those 17 did both.
* Kamara owns both of the top 25 overall entries from this group
- an accomplishment made possible by his 18 total touchdowns in
2018 and 21 total touchdowns in 2020. He also went over 1,500
total yards each season.
* While Kamara's aforementioned banner seasons drive up the total
TD average of this group (from 10 without him included to 10.7
with those seasons included), tweeners must be efficient here
as well. Surprisingly, high-performing tweeners averaged only
1.1 fewer touchdowns (10.7 to the workhorses' 11.8).
Run-Heavy Backs (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Car
RuYds
RuTDs
Tgt
Rec
ReYds
ReTDs
11
Derrick Henry
2020
26
TEN
333.1
378
2027
17
31
19
114
0
13
Ezekiel Elliott
2016
21
DAL
325.4
322
1631
15
39
32
363
1
22
Derrick Henry
2019
25
TEN
294.6
303
1540
16
24
18
206
2
33
Adrian Peterson
2015
30
MIN
260.7
327
1485
11
36
30
222
0
37
Jonathan Taylor
2020
21
IND
252.8
232
1169
11
39
36
299
1
49
LeGarrette Blount
2016
30
NE
232.9
299
1161
18
8
7
38
0
50
Chris Carson
2019
25
SEA
232.6
278
1230
7
47
37
266
2
51
Doug Martin
2015
26
TB
232.3
288
1402
6
44
33
271
1
54
Josh Jacobs
2020
22
LV
231.3
273
1065
12
45
33
238
0
55
Leonard Fournette
2017
22
JAC
230.2
268
1040
9
48
36
302
1
59
Joe Mixon
2019
23
CIN
225.4
278
1137
5
45
35
287
3
67
Jay Ajayi
2016
23
MIA
215.3
260
1272
8
35
27
151
0
71
Frank Gore
2016
33
IND
214.2
263
1025
4
47
38
277
4
72
Todd Gurley
2015
21
STL
208.4
229
1106
10
26
21
188
0
80
Ezekiel Elliott
2017
22
DAL
203.2
242
983
7
38
26
269
2
82
Chris Ivory
2015
27
NYJ
202.7
247
1070
7
37
30
217
1
84
Chris Carson
2018
24
SEA
201.4
247
1151
9
24
20
163
0
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Car
RuYds
RuTDs
Tgt
Rec
ReYds
ReTDs
52
Group Average
-
24.8
-
241.0
279
1264.4
10.1
36.1
28.1
227.7
1.1
11
Group Minimum
-
21
-
201.4
229
983
4
8
7
38
0
84
Group Maximum
-
33
-
333.1
378
2027
18
48
38
363
4
Observations
* Interestingly enough, this is the section where we find five
of the seven 30-year-olds over the last six years to top 200 fantasy
points.
* Thanks in large part to Henry, this group accounts for three
of the top four rushing TD efforts over the last six seasons.
* If a back is locked into a heavy rushing workload but isn't
much of a factor for whatever reason in the passing game (reminder:
48 or fewer targets for the sake of this study), he will likely
need at least 278 carries, 1,200 rushing yards and 11 total touchdowns
to even be in the conversation as a potential league-winner.
* Even the "run-heavy" backs can be projected for a
decent amount of volume in the passing game. This group features
the 11 lowest reception totals from the 87 backs in this study.
However, only five of them finished with fewer than 20 receptions
and all but one had at least 15. Those are not encouraging numbers,
but it should be slightly comforting that we can expect at least
an additional 20 PPR fantasy points each year - even when we typically
know these backs will not be a big part of the passing game. It
is also mildly surprising (and encouraging) that the receiving
yardage average from this group is 227.7 yards.
Satellite Backs (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Car
RuYds
RuTDs
Tgt
Rec
ReYds
ReTDs
14
Alvin Kamara
2017
22
NO
320.4
120
728
8
100
81
826
5
19
Austin Ekeler
2019
24
LAC
309.0
132
557
3
108
92
993
8
29
James White
2018
26
NE
276.6
94
425
5
123
87
751
7
44
Danny Woodhead
2015
30
LAC
243.1
98
336
3
106
80
755
6
47
Tarik Cohen
2018
23
CHI
233.9
99
444
3
91
71
725
5
58
Christian McCaffrey
2017
21
CAR
228.6
117
435
2
113
80
651
5
65
Duke Johnson
2017
24
CLE
216.1
82
348
4
93
74
693
3
66
David Johnson
2015
24
ARI
215.8
125
581
8
57
36
457
4
76
Kenyan Drake
2018
24
MIA
206.2
120
535
4
73
53
477
5
87
James White
2019
27
NE
200.2
67
263
1
95
72
645
5
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Car
RuYds
RuTDs
Tgt
Rec
ReYds
ReTDs
51
Group Average
-
25
-
245.0
105
465.2
4.1
95.9
72.6
697.0
5.3
14
Group Minimum
-
21
-
200.2
67
263
1
57
36
457
3
87
Group Maximum
-
30
-
320.4
132
728
8
123
92
993
8
Observations
* Only two of the top 28 fantasy performances by a running back
in the last six seasons occurred when that running back logged
fewer than 170 carries. Even then, Kamara (2017) and Ekeler (2019)
still reached 200 touches and used their 80-plus catches to top
1,500 total yards.
* Take note that seven of the 10 backs in this group finished
44th or lower among all fantasy backs across the last six years.
The three that placed higher all scored at least 11 touchdowns.
All three of those backs also had at least 80 catches.
* White (2019) might have just made the 200-point cut, but his
presence on this list is a reminder that a back can be very relevant
on as few as 139 touches. In fact, eight of the 87 backs in this
study (reminder: at least 200 fantasy points) hit that mark despite
finishing with less than 200 touches.
How can this help us for moving forward?
Volume is king.
Shocking, I know. Among the top 12 finishers at running back
from 2015-20, the fewest touches any of those 12 had was Kamara
in 2018 (275) and 2020 (270). The average of this group is 349.8
touches. The lowest fantasy finish by any running back with at
least 325 touches in this study was by Chubb in 2019 (36th). It
is also comforting to know that the average TD total for backs
with at least 315 touches in this study was 13.
Practice age discrimination.
This one is about as obvious as the preceding paragraph. The
highest finish by a running back over the age of 26 in the last
six seasons combined is 20th (McCoy, 2016). Again, to reinforce
that point, the 19 highest-scoring running backs from 2015-20
were 26 years of age or younger.
Fantasy managers need to set the floor for elite RB1s
at around 1,500 total yards and nine total touchdowns in a given
year.
Running backs who achieved both benchmarks occupy the first 26
spots of top fantasy performances at their position over the last
six seasons. Only two backs scored as few as nine touchdowns,
and both of them (2016 Bell, 2018 Elliott) amassed at least 1,884
total yards. Conner's 2018 season (No. 27 overall) is the first
instance of a back accumulating less than 1,500 total yards.
All of the top-10 backs amassed at least 54 targets and
44 catches.
Furthermore, the top nine entries turned those opportunities
in the passing game into at least 580 receiving yards. Eight of
those nine scored at least four receiving TDs.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.