One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for
any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players
have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's
and Dalvin Cook's of the world come immediately to mind, but we
need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land
either one of those players.
To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided
to take a position-by-position look at each player that enjoyed
rarified air over the last six seasons. By using the best of the
best in each position group over a six-year period as the basis
for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic
parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.
There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players
appearing multiple times on the list). It is also OK to view this
series of articles as something of a correlational study or a
series of interesting facts, but there's more value in this kind
of analysis than that. My top priority is trying to establish
what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position,
especially considering the different styles of players that exist
in the game.
Each position during this four-part series will be divided into
multiple groups for the express purpose of challenging how you
currently think about the position (and its upside). The "Rk"
column to the left of each player's name is where he finished
among his peers over the six years of this study. (For example,
Aaron Rodgers' 2020 season ranked fifth among all quarterbacks
in the last six seasons.) Quarterbacks were split into the following
groups:
Pocket passer - Rushing total of 150 yards or
less in the given year Mobile quarterback - Rushing total between 151-400
yards in the given year Dual-threat - Rushing total of 401 or more yards
in the given year
Take note that a particular quarterback may appear in two different
tables. While that may seem far from ideal, quarterbacks are not
necessarily the same year after year. Sometimes they need to run
more one season than they do others. Pocket passers rarely evolve
into dual-threats or vice versa, but mobile quarterbacks frequently
evolve into pocket passers at some point due to age or injury.
I also acknowledge that while some of the observations I will
make over the next two weeks are somewhat obvious, they often
bear repeating.
Below each table will be another table that summarizes the averages
of each group as well as the group minimum and maximum. The cutoff
at quarterback for this study was 285.3 fantasy points (top 50
performances in the last six years).
Pocket Passers (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Cmp
Att
PaYds
PaTD
INT
RuAt
RuYds
RuTD
5
Aaron Rodgers
2020
37
GB
382.3
372
526
4299
48
5
38
149
3
11
Matt Ryan
2018
33
ATL
354.0
422
608
4924
35
7
33
125
3
13
Matt Ryan
2016
31
ATL
347.5
373
534
4944
38
7
35
117
0
14
Tom Brady
2015
38
NE
343.7
402
624
4770
36
7
34
53
3
16
Ben Roethlisberger
2018
36
PIT
340.9
452
675
5129
34
16
31
98
3
17
Tom Brady
2020
43
TB
337.9
401
610
4633
40
12
30
6
3
22
Drew Brees
2016
37
NO
332.3
471
673
5208
37
15
23
20
2
25
Andrew Luck
2018
29
IND
326.9
430
639
4593
39
15
46
148
0
27
Jared Goff
2018
24
LAR
316.3
364
561
4688
32
12
43
108
2
30
Carson Palmer
2015
36
ARI
309.2
342
537
4671
35
11
25
24
1
34
Drew Brees
2015
36
NO
304.2
428
627
4870
32
11
24
14
1
35
Drew Brees
2018
39
NO
304.0
364
489
3992
32
5
31
22
4
37
Kirk Cousins
2016
28
WAS
300.3
406
606
4917
25
12
34
96
4
40
Tom Brady
2017
40
NE
295.9
385
581
4577
32
8
25
28
0
42
Kirk Cousins
2015
27
WAS
293.4
379
543
4166
29
11
26
48
5
45
Eli Manning
2015
34
NYG
287.4
387
618
4432
35
14
20
61
0
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Cmp
Att
PaYds
PaTD
INT
RuAt
RuYds
RuTD
26
Group Average
-
34.3
-
323.5
398.6
590.7
4675.8
34.9
10.5
31.1
69.8
2.1
5
Group Minimum
-
24
-
287.4
342
489
3992
25
5
20
6
0
45
Group Maximum
-
43
-
382.3
471
675
5208
48
16
46
149
5
Observations
* Rodgers (2020) is the only quarterback in this group to finish
inside the top 10 across the last six seasons. Maybe the fact
he accounted for 51 total touchdowns had something to do with
that.
* Twelve of the 16 instances above were recorded by quarterbacks
in their age-31 or after season. Only two pocket passers younger
than 29 years old finished inside the top 50, and both of them
played in an offense coordinated by Sean McVay (2015 Cousins,
2018 Goff).
* Of the three quarterbacks groups we'll discuss, pocket passers
appear to have the least amount of upside. Rodgers' 382.3 fantasy
points last year was significantly higher than Ryan's 354 in 2018.
Ryan's 2016 and 2018 totals are quite impressive - especially
for where he was drafted in fantasy in those particular years
- but we are focusing on true elite performances. Those two seasons
show just how difficult it is for a pocket passer to rise to the
top of the fantasy mountain. Imagine accounting for 38 touchdowns
and throwing for nearly 5,000 yards in a season twice and still
not being able to crack the top 10 over a six-year period.
* The average number of passing attempts for the 16 instances
above is 591 (or roughly 37 per game). Taken one step further,
83 percent (20 of 24) of the quarterbacks - including ones that
did not make the fantasy-point cutoff - over the last six seasons
to attempt at least 600 managed to score at least 260 fantasy
points. That is a total that would rank 82nd among quarterbacks
in that span. Fifteen (63 percent) of those 24 topped 280 fantasy
points - good for a 58th-place finish. Not league-winning stuff,
but interesting nonetheless.
Mobile Quarterbacks (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Cmp
Att
PaYds
PaTD
INT
RuAt
RuYds
RuTD
1
Patrick Mahomes
2018
23
KC
417.1
383
580
5097
50
12
60
272
2
6
Aaron Rodgers
2016
33
GB
380.0
401
610
4428
40
7
67
369
4
8
Patrick Mahomes
2020
25
KC
374.4
390
588
4740
38
6
62
308
2
15
Ryan Tannehill
2020
32
TEN
343.4
315
481
3819
33
7
43
266
7
18
Dak Prescott
2019
26
DAL
337.8
388
596
4902
30
11
52
277
3
20
Justin Herbert
2020
22
LAC
332.8
396
595
4336
31
10
55
234
5
24
Russell Wilson
2019
31
SEA
328.6
341
516
4110
31
5
75
342
3
28
Blake Bortles
2015
23
JAC
316.1
355
606
4428
35
18
52
310
2
29
Aaron Rodgers
2018
35
GB
312.6
372
597
4442
25
2
43
269
2
31
Andrew Luck
2016
27
IND
307.7
346
545
4240
31
13
64
341
2
32
Kirk Cousins
2020
32
MIN
306.2
349
516
4265
35
13
32
156
1
33
Jameis Winston
2019
25
TB
305.4
380
626
5109
33
30
59
250
1
36
Aaron Rodgers
2015
32
GB
301.2
347
572
3821
31
8
58
344
1
39
Russell Wilson
2018
30
SEA
298.4
280
427
3448
35
7
67
376
0
41
Alex Smith
2017
33
KC
295.2
341
505
4042
26
5
60
355
1
43
Matthew Stafford
2015
27
DET
289.8
398
592
4262
32
13
44
159
1
46
Patrick Mahomes
2019
24
KC
287.0
319
484
4031
26
5
43
218
2
47
Dak Prescott
2016
23
DAL
286.9
311
459
3667
23
4
57
282
6
48
Dak Prescott
2018
25
DAL
285.9
356
526
3885
22
8
75
305
6
50
Ryan Fitzpatrick
2015
33
NYJ
285.2
335
562
3905
31
15
60
270
2
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Cmp
Att
PaYds
PaTD
INT
RuAt
RuYds
RuTD
30
Group Average
-
28.1
-
319.6
355.2
549.2
4248.9
31.9
10
56.4
285.2
2.7
1
Group Minimum
-
22
-
285.2
280
427
3448
22
2
32
156
0
50
Group Maximum
-
35
-
417.1
401
626
5109
50
30
75
376
7
Note: An average of 10 rushing yards
per game admittedly does not seem like a high bar to cross to be
a "mobile quarterback," but there are 61 instances of
quarterbacks who made at least 15 starts from 2015-20 who failed
to accomplish that.
Observations
* Young quarterbacks will almost invariably run more because
they cannot read defenses as well as their veteran counterparts
or lack the patience to do so. With that said, it is still interesting
that over half of this slightly more mobile group (11 of 20) made
the cut during or before their age-27 season. (Keep in mind this
group is only averaging about 15 more rushing yards per game than
the earlier group.)
* This group has the most entries of the three quarterback designations,
but only three of the 20 entries are inside the top 10 over the
last six seasons.
* On average, mobile quarterbacks attempt 40 fewer passes and
run 25 more times than do pocket passers. While the latter disparity
results in roughly 215 more rushing yards and a half-touchdown
edge in rushing scores, the former difference results in a 427-yard
drop in passing yards and three fewer passing TDs for the mobile
group.
* It seems hard to believe 40 total touchdowns isn't enough to
guarantee any of the three kinds of quarterbacks a finish higher
than 15th. Tannehill (2020) accounted for 43 touchdowns, threw
only seven interceptions and ran for seven TDs. While touchdowns
and efficiency are vital to quarterbacks pushing for elite fantasy
status, he is a prime example they typically need to throw for
at least 4,200 yards or rush for about 500.
* Touchdowns - especially rushing scores for most quarterbacks
- are fickle beasts, but it appears any signal-caller who wants
to enjoy a truly elite season probably needs to score at least
a couple on the ground. Of the top 90 fantasy performances by
quarterbacks in the last six seasons, only 17 did not have a rushing
TD. Only two quarterbacks with one score or less finished higher
than 25th. Additionally, only two quarterbacks with no rushing
TD finished inside the top 38.
Dual-Threats (2015-20)
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Cmp
Att
PaYds
PaTD
INT
RuAt
RuYds
RuTD
2
Lamar Jackson
2019
22
BAL
415.7
265
401
3127
36
6
176
1206
7
3
Josh Allen
2020
24
BUF
395.1
396
572
4544
37
10
102
421
8
4
Cam Newton
2015
26
CAR
389.1
296
495
3837
35
10
132
636
10
7
Kyler Murray
2020
23
ARI
378.7
375
558
3971
26
12
133
819
11
9
Deshaun Watson
2020
25
HOU
369.3
382
544
4823
33
7
90
444
3
10
Russell Wilson
2020
32
SEA
359.8
384
558
4212
40
13
83
513
2
12
Russell Wilson
2017
29
SEA
347.9
339
553
3983
34
11
95
586
3
19
Russell Wilson
2015
27
SEA
336.3
329
483
4024
34
8
103
553
1
21
Lamar Jackson
2020
23
BAL
332.8
242
376
2757
26
9
159
1005
7
23
Deshaun Watson
2018
23
HOU
331.7
345
505
4165
26
9
99
551
5
26
Deshaun Watson
2019
24
HOU
320.0
333
495
3852
26
12
82
413
7
38
Cam Newton
2017
28
CAR
299.5
291
492
3302
22
16
139
754
6
44
Josh Allen
2019
23
BUF
288.6
271
461
3089
20
9
109
510
9
49
Kyler Murray
2019
22
ARI
285.3
349
542
3722
20
12
93
544
4
Rk
Player
Year
Age
Tm
FPts
Cmp
Att
PaYds
PaTD
INT
RuAt
RuYds
RuTD
19
Group Average
-
25.1
-
346.4
328.4
502.5
3814.9
29.6
10.3
113.9
639.6
5.9
2
Group Minimum
-
22
-
285.3
242
376
2757
20
6
82
413
1
49
Group Maximum
-
32
-
415.7
396
572
4823
40
16
176
1206
11
Observations
* There is a reason fantasy managers love their "cheat code"
quarterbacks. Only 14 dual-threat quarterbacks made this list,
but they make up half of the top 10 fantasy performances over
the last six years. They also occupy 11 of the top 26 slots.
* Of the three top-10 finishers that failed to throw for at least
4,000 yards, all of them rushed for at least 600. The other two
top-10 quarterbacks passed for at least 4,500 yards. Somewhat
surprisingly, dual-threats still need to aim for about 3,800 yards
through the air to have any real shot at being truly elite.
* Newton's 2017 campaign (754 yards) is proof that a big rushing
total does not guarantee fantasy managers an elite fantasy quarterback
(he finished 38th overall). However, of the eight quarterbacks
above who ran for at least 550 yards in this six-year study, only
one (Newton and that aforementioned 2017 season) finished lower
than 23rd overall.
* While not particularly surprising, the average number of rushing
touchdowns for the dual threats was 5.9 - more than twice the
number of the mobile quarterbacks (2.7). That number is obviously
buoyed by quarterbacks that called their number by the end zone
(i.e. 2015 Newton, 2020 Allen and 2020 Murray), but the average
for this group without those three instances is still 4.9.
How can this help us for moving forward?
Fantasy managers should be mindful of age when considering
the kind of quarterback they want.
This is kind of a no-brainer when it comes to the dual-threats.
We want them young. (Russell Wilson is the only dual-threat who
made the table above during his age-28 season or younger.) However,
this evidence suggests that we should not be afraid to trend a
bit older when we know the quarterback will not run much. We have
already discussed the upside probably is not going to be there
with pocket passers, but it is telling that 14 of the 16 entries
from the group are quarterbacks who were at least 31 years old.
It is just as telling that the group average age is 34.
Fantasy managers need to set the floor for their fantasy
quarterbacks at 30 passing touchdowns to have a chance to be in
the league-winner discussion.
Of the 48 quarterbacks that have amassed at least 250 fantasy
points over the last six seasons, Murray's 2020 campaign is the
lone instance in which a player threw fewer than 30 touchdowns
and still turned in a top-20 performance.
Thirty-six total touchdowns is roughly the magic number
to gain entry into the top-20 club.
The lowest finish for any quarterback in this study who accounted
for at least 36 TDs was 2018 Brees (35th). There are three other
non-top 20 performances in the group of 24 quarterbacks with 36
or more touchdowns, but the top 17 finishers (and 18 of the top
20) had at least that many.
Running is not necessary to get into the gold club, but
it is almost a prerequisite to gain admittance to the VIP lounge.
Forty-nine of the 90 quarterbacks who amassed at least 250 fantasy
points from 2015-2020 ran for 250 or fewer yards. However, nine
of the 12 top fantasy quarterback entries over the last six years
had at least 369 yards rushing. Two of the three that did not
go for 369 accounted for more than 50 touchdowns.
Mobile quarterbacks appear to provide a safe floor but
lack a ridiculous ceiling unless they are still winning in a big
way as a passer.
Seventeen mobile quarterbacks fill out the last 36 spots in the
top 50 performances from fantasy quarterbacks in the last six
years. Among all the mobile quarterbacks, only Rodgers and Mahomes
(twice) finished inside the top 10 in this study. In all three
cases, Rodgers and Mahomes accounted for at least 40 total TDs
and threw for at least 4,428 yards.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.