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Anatomy of a League Winner - Quarterbacks


Preseason Matchup Analysis

By Doug Orth | 7/6/21 |
QBs | RBs | WRs | TEs


One of the most difficult - and sometimes impossible - tasks for any fantasy owner during the offseason is figuring out what players have league-winning upside. Certainly, the Christian McCaffrey's and Dalvin Cook's of the world come immediately to mind, but we need some pretty good luck in a traditional snake draft to land either one of those players.

To answer this "league-winner" question better, I decided to take a position-by-position look at each player that enjoyed rarified air over the last six seasons. By using the best of the best in each position group over a six-year period as the basis for what is great versus elite, we should be able to create realistic parameters for what it takes to be a true fantasy difference-maker.

There will invariably be repeat entries (as in certain players appearing multiple times on the list). It is also OK to view this series of articles as something of a correlational study or a series of interesting facts, but there's more value in this kind of analysis than that. My top priority is trying to establish what benchmarks fantasy owners need to shoot for at each position, especially considering the different styles of players that exist in the game.

Each position during this four-part series will be divided into multiple groups for the express purpose of challenging how you currently think about the position (and its upside). The "Rk" column to the left of each player's name is where he finished among his peers over the six years of this study. (For example, Aaron Rodgers' 2020 season ranked fifth among all quarterbacks in the last six seasons.) Quarterbacks were split into the following groups:

Pocket passer - Rushing total of 150 yards or less in the given year
Mobile quarterback - Rushing total between 151-400 yards in the given year
Dual-threat - Rushing total of 401 or more yards in the given year

Take note that a particular quarterback may appear in two different tables. While that may seem far from ideal, quarterbacks are not necessarily the same year after year. Sometimes they need to run more one season than they do others. Pocket passers rarely evolve into dual-threats or vice versa, but mobile quarterbacks frequently evolve into pocket passers at some point due to age or injury. I also acknowledge that while some of the observations I will make over the next two weeks are somewhat obvious, they often bear repeating.

Below each table will be another table that summarizes the averages of each group as well as the group minimum and maximum. The cutoff at quarterback for this study was 285.3 fantasy points (top 50 performances in the last six years).

 Pocket Passers (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Cmp Att PaYds PaTD INT RuAt RuYds RuTD
5 Aaron Rodgers 2020 37 GB 382.3 372 526 4299 48 5 38 149 3
11 Matt Ryan 2018 33 ATL 354.0 422 608 4924 35 7 33 125 3
13 Matt Ryan 2016 31 ATL 347.5 373 534 4944 38 7 35 117 0
14 Tom Brady 2015 38 NE 343.7 402 624 4770 36 7 34 53 3
16 Ben Roethlisberger 2018 36 PIT 340.9 452 675 5129 34 16 31 98 3
17 Tom Brady 2020 43 TB 337.9 401 610 4633 40 12 30 6 3
22 Drew Brees 2016 37 NO 332.3 471 673 5208 37 15 23 20 2
25 Andrew Luck 2018 29 IND 326.9 430 639 4593 39 15 46 148 0
27 Jared Goff 2018 24 LAR 316.3 364 561 4688 32 12 43 108 2
30 Carson Palmer 2015 36 ARI 309.2 342 537 4671 35 11 25 24 1
34 Drew Brees 2015 36 NO 304.2 428 627 4870 32 11 24 14 1
35 Drew Brees 2018 39 NO 304.0 364 489 3992 32 5 31 22 4
37 Kirk Cousins 2016 28 WAS 300.3 406 606 4917 25 12 34 96 4
40 Tom Brady 2017 40 NE 295.9 385 581 4577 32 8 25 28 0
42 Kirk Cousins 2015 27 WAS 293.4 379 543 4166 29 11 26 48 5
45 Eli Manning 2015 34 NYG 287.4 387 618 4432 35 14 20 61 0

Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Cmp Att PaYds PaTD INT RuAt RuYds RuTD
26 Group Average   - 34.3   - 323.5 398.6 590.7 4675.8 34.9 10.5 31.1 69.8 2.1
5 Group Minimum   - 24   - 287.4 342 489 3992 25 5 20 6 0
45 Group Maximum   - 43   - 382.3 471 675 5208 48 16 46 149 5

Observations

* Rodgers (2020) is the only quarterback in this group to finish inside the top 10 across the last six seasons. Maybe the fact he accounted for 51 total touchdowns had something to do with that.

* Twelve of the 16 instances above were recorded by quarterbacks in their age-31 or after season. Only two pocket passers younger than 29 years old finished inside the top 50, and both of them played in an offense coordinated by Sean McVay (2015 Cousins, 2018 Goff).

* Of the three quarterbacks groups we'll discuss, pocket passers appear to have the least amount of upside. Rodgers' 382.3 fantasy points last year was significantly higher than Ryan's 354 in 2018. Ryan's 2016 and 2018 totals are quite impressive - especially for where he was drafted in fantasy in those particular years - but we are focusing on true elite performances. Those two seasons show just how difficult it is for a pocket passer to rise to the top of the fantasy mountain. Imagine accounting for 38 touchdowns and throwing for nearly 5,000 yards in a season twice and still not being able to crack the top 10 over a six-year period.

* The average number of passing attempts for the 16 instances above is 591 (or roughly 37 per game). Taken one step further, 83 percent (20 of 24) of the quarterbacks - including ones that did not make the fantasy-point cutoff - over the last six seasons to attempt at least 600 managed to score at least 260 fantasy points. That is a total that would rank 82nd among quarterbacks in that span. Fifteen (63 percent) of those 24 topped 280 fantasy points - good for a 58th-place finish. Not league-winning stuff, but interesting nonetheless.

 Mobile Quarterbacks (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Cmp Att PaYds PaTD INT RuAt RuYds RuTD
1 Patrick Mahomes 2018 23 KC 417.1 383 580 5097 50 12 60 272 2
6 Aaron Rodgers 2016 33 GB 380.0 401 610 4428 40 7 67 369 4
8 Patrick Mahomes 2020 25 KC 374.4 390 588 4740 38 6 62 308 2
15 Ryan Tannehill 2020 32 TEN 343.4 315 481 3819 33 7 43 266 7
18 Dak Prescott 2019 26 DAL 337.8 388 596 4902 30 11 52 277 3
20 Justin Herbert 2020 22 LAC 332.8 396 595 4336 31 10 55 234 5
24 Russell Wilson 2019 31 SEA 328.6 341 516 4110 31 5 75 342 3
28 Blake Bortles 2015 23 JAC 316.1 355 606 4428 35 18 52 310 2
29 Aaron Rodgers 2018 35 GB 312.6 372 597 4442 25 2 43 269 2
31 Andrew Luck 2016 27 IND 307.7 346 545 4240 31 13 64 341 2
32 Kirk Cousins 2020 32 MIN 306.2 349 516 4265 35 13 32 156 1
33 Jameis Winston 2019 25 TB 305.4 380 626 5109 33 30 59 250 1
36 Aaron Rodgers 2015 32 GB 301.2 347 572 3821 31 8 58 344 1
39 Russell Wilson 2018 30 SEA 298.4 280 427 3448 35 7 67 376 0
41 Alex Smith 2017 33 KC 295.2 341 505 4042 26 5 60 355 1
43 Matthew Stafford 2015 27 DET 289.8 398 592 4262 32 13 44 159 1
46 Patrick Mahomes 2019 24 KC 287.0 319 484 4031 26 5 43 218 2
47 Dak Prescott 2016 23 DAL 286.9 311 459 3667 23 4 57 282 6
48 Dak Prescott 2018 25 DAL 285.9 356 526 3885 22 8 75 305 6
50 Ryan Fitzpatrick 2015 33 NYJ 285.2 335 562 3905 31 15 60 270 2

Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Cmp Att PaYds PaTD INT RuAt RuYds RuTD
30 Group Average   - 28.1  -  319.6 355.2 549.2 4248.9 31.9 10 56.4 285.2 2.7
1 Group Minimum   - 22 - 285.2 280 427 3448 22 2 32 156 0
50 Group Maximum   - 35 - 417.1 401 626 5109 50 30 75 376 7

Note: An average of 10 rushing yards per game admittedly does not seem like a high bar to cross to be a "mobile quarterback," but there are 61 instances of quarterbacks who made at least 15 starts from 2015-20 who failed to accomplish that.

Observations

* Young quarterbacks will almost invariably run more because they cannot read defenses as well as their veteran counterparts or lack the patience to do so. With that said, it is still interesting that over half of this slightly more mobile group (11 of 20) made the cut during or before their age-27 season. (Keep in mind this group is only averaging about 15 more rushing yards per game than the earlier group.)

* This group has the most entries of the three quarterback designations, but only three of the 20 entries are inside the top 10 over the last six seasons.

* On average, mobile quarterbacks attempt 40 fewer passes and run 25 more times than do pocket passers. While the latter disparity results in roughly 215 more rushing yards and a half-touchdown edge in rushing scores, the former difference results in a 427-yard drop in passing yards and three fewer passing TDs for the mobile group.

* It seems hard to believe 40 total touchdowns isn't enough to guarantee any of the three kinds of quarterbacks a finish higher than 15th. Tannehill (2020) accounted for 43 touchdowns, threw only seven interceptions and ran for seven TDs. While touchdowns and efficiency are vital to quarterbacks pushing for elite fantasy status, he is a prime example they typically need to throw for at least 4,200 yards or rush for about 500.

* Touchdowns - especially rushing scores for most quarterbacks - are fickle beasts, but it appears any signal-caller who wants to enjoy a truly elite season probably needs to score at least a couple on the ground. Of the top 90 fantasy performances by quarterbacks in the last six seasons, only 17 did not have a rushing TD. Only two quarterbacks with one score or less finished higher than 25th. Additionally, only two quarterbacks with no rushing TD finished inside the top 38.

 Dual-Threats (2015-20)
Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Cmp Att PaYds PaTD INT RuAt RuYds RuTD
2 Lamar Jackson 2019 22 BAL 415.7 265 401 3127 36 6 176 1206 7
3 Josh Allen 2020 24 BUF 395.1 396 572 4544 37 10 102 421 8
4 Cam Newton 2015 26 CAR 389.1 296 495 3837 35 10 132 636 10
7 Kyler Murray 2020 23 ARI 378.7 375 558 3971 26 12 133 819 11
9 Deshaun Watson 2020 25 HOU 369.3 382 544 4823 33 7 90 444 3
10 Russell Wilson 2020 32 SEA 359.8 384 558 4212 40 13 83 513 2
12 Russell Wilson 2017 29 SEA 347.9 339 553 3983 34 11 95 586 3
19 Russell Wilson 2015 27 SEA 336.3 329 483 4024 34 8 103 553 1
21 Lamar Jackson 2020 23 BAL 332.8 242 376 2757 26 9 159 1005 7
23 Deshaun Watson 2018 23 HOU 331.7 345 505 4165 26 9 99 551 5
26 Deshaun Watson 2019 24 HOU 320.0 333 495 3852 26 12 82 413 7
38 Cam Newton 2017 28 CAR 299.5 291 492 3302 22 16 139 754 6
44 Josh Allen 2019 23 BUF 288.6 271 461 3089 20 9 109 510 9
49 Kyler Murray 2019 22 ARI 285.3 349 542 3722 20 12 93 544 4

Rk Player Year Age Tm FPts Cmp Att PaYds PaTD INT RuAt RuYds RuTD
19 Group Average   - 25.1   - 346.4 328.4 502.5 3814.9 29.6 10.3 113.9 639.6 5.9
2 Group Minimum   - 22   - 285.3 242 376 2757 20 6 82 413 1
49 Group Maximum   - 32   - 415.7 396 572 4823 40 16 176 1206 11

Observations

* There is a reason fantasy managers love their "cheat code" quarterbacks. Only 14 dual-threat quarterbacks made this list, but they make up half of the top 10 fantasy performances over the last six years. They also occupy 11 of the top 26 slots.

* Of the three top-10 finishers that failed to throw for at least 4,000 yards, all of them rushed for at least 600. The other two top-10 quarterbacks passed for at least 4,500 yards. Somewhat surprisingly, dual-threats still need to aim for about 3,800 yards through the air to have any real shot at being truly elite.

* Newton's 2017 campaign (754 yards) is proof that a big rushing total does not guarantee fantasy managers an elite fantasy quarterback (he finished 38th overall). However, of the eight quarterbacks above who ran for at least 550 yards in this six-year study, only one (Newton and that aforementioned 2017 season) finished lower than 23rd overall.

* While not particularly surprising, the average number of rushing touchdowns for the dual threats was 5.9 - more than twice the number of the mobile quarterbacks (2.7). That number is obviously buoyed by quarterbacks that called their number by the end zone (i.e. 2015 Newton, 2020 Allen and 2020 Murray), but the average for this group without those three instances is still 4.9.

How can this help us for moving forward?

Fantasy managers should be mindful of age when considering the kind of quarterback they want.

This is kind of a no-brainer when it comes to the dual-threats. We want them young. (Russell Wilson is the only dual-threat who made the table above during his age-28 season or younger.) However, this evidence suggests that we should not be afraid to trend a bit older when we know the quarterback will not run much. We have already discussed the upside probably is not going to be there with pocket passers, but it is telling that 14 of the 16 entries from the group are quarterbacks who were at least 31 years old. It is just as telling that the group average age is 34.

Fantasy managers need to set the floor for their fantasy quarterbacks at 30 passing touchdowns to have a chance to be in the league-winner discussion.

Of the 48 quarterbacks that have amassed at least 250 fantasy points over the last six seasons, Murray's 2020 campaign is the lone instance in which a player threw fewer than 30 touchdowns and still turned in a top-20 performance.

Thirty-six total touchdowns is roughly the magic number to gain entry into the top-20 club.

The lowest finish for any quarterback in this study who accounted for at least 36 TDs was 2018 Brees (35th). There are three other non-top 20 performances in the group of 24 quarterbacks with 36 or more touchdowns, but the top 17 finishers (and 18 of the top 20) had at least that many.

Running is not necessary to get into the gold club, but it is almost a prerequisite to gain admittance to the VIP lounge.

Forty-nine of the 90 quarterbacks who amassed at least 250 fantasy points from 2015-2020 ran for 250 or fewer yards. However, nine of the 12 top fantasy quarterback entries over the last six years had at least 369 yards rushing. Two of the three that did not go for 369 accounted for more than 50 touchdowns.

Mobile quarterbacks appear to provide a safe floor but lack a ridiculous ceiling unless they are still winning in a big way as a passer.

Seventeen mobile quarterbacks fill out the last 36 spots in the top 50 performances from fantasy quarterbacks in the last six years. Among all the mobile quarterbacks, only Rodgers and Mahomes (twice) finished inside the top 10 in this study. In all three cases, Rodgers and Mahomes accounted for at least 40 total TDs and threw for at least 4,428 yards.

Quarterbacks | Running Backs | Wide Receivers | Tight Ends


Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and has appeared as a guest analyst on several national sports radio shows and podcasts, including Sirius XM's Fantasy Drive, FantasyPros and RealTime Fantasy Sports. He is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.