One "mid-round" running back I am warming up to as the offseason
winds down is Mark
Ingram. The Ravens ran the ball 596 times last season. Yes,
I expect that number to drop, but what are the odds the quarterback
position will account for 197 carries again? Not high. As I alluded
a couple of paragraphs earlier, I believe Baltimore does not want
a repeat of Lamar
Jackson running an average of 11.7 times as it did last season,
but rather find eight or nine prime spots per game to do so. Over
the course of a season, that adds up to about 45-50 additional rushing
attempts for non-quarterbacks. So, if we assume 150 carries for
the quarterbacks (still a very high number) and 550 carries for
the team overall, that leaves somewhere around 390 to 400 for the
backs. Interestingly, 94 of Gus
Edwards' 133 carries last season came in games where the final
margin was 15 or more points (Ingram had 99 such attempts). In other
words, Ingram was featured more than his 202 carries over 15 games
suggest he was.
There are the obvious age (turns 31 in December) and regression
(one TD every 15.2 touches in 2019) concerns, but I would counter
with this: Ingram is a straight-ahead runner in the mold of Frank Gore - he has a game that ages well, in other words - and his
workload has been managed well throughout his career. There is
also little question he will continue to be the goal-line back.
Rookie J.K. Dobbins will undoubtedly play earlier in games and
see more work than Edwards did last year, but let's not act as
though he is going to make Ingram an afterthought. (The Saints
didn't do that with Ingram even when they had Alvin Kamara.) In
what should a dynamic offense once again with plenty of volume,
Ingram brings plenty of RB2 upside to the table for owners who
would rather avoid the questions that plague other backs in or
around his tier, such as Le'Veon Bell, Gurley and David Johnson.
Ingram may not be able to amass 1,200-plus total yards and 15
touchdowns again, but 1,000-plus yards and 10-12 scores are certainly
within his range of outcomes.
For the first time in Big
Board history, I have the distinct pleasure of trying to put
a value on a player (Leonard
Fournette) that doesn't have an employer at press time. There's
not a lot of analysis to provide until that changes, but we can
be assured he'll find a home shortly and probably be able to serve
as a reasonable flex option. While his role will almost certainly
not be as voluminous as it was in Jacksonville, it's hard to argue
that his situation won't be better as a result of a move. Among
the teams I expect to express interest in him: the Bears, Lions,
Texans, Chiefs, Chargers, Dolphins, Patriots, Jets, Buccaneers
and the Washington Football Team. Of that group, I would make
the Texans, Chargers, Patriots, Jets and Washington the favorites
to land him. Even though Joshua
Kelley and Damien
Harris have reportedly enjoyed strong camps, I believe the
Chargers and Patriots offer the best opportunity for his fantasy
owners to salvage some kind of value. As for what remains in Jacksonville,
I could easily see an early-down committee with Ryquell
Armstead and Devin Ozigbo sabotaging regularly sabotaging
each other what little run-game volume they will have and keeping
the other from being a low-end flex. However, Chris
Thompson should emerge as a strong flex option in PPR formats
for as long as his body will allow it since the Jags figure to
be in negative game scripts A LOT in 2020.
There are at least multiple schools of thought when it comes
to handcuffing running backs. Here are three: 1) draft handcuffs
attached to schemes/offenses that have consistently provided running
back production, 2) target handcuffs who are reasonably certain
to assume a featured role if the starter goes down and 3) don't
be afraid to put a higher value on high-end handcuffs than low-end
starters. For example, the odds are not great Jordan
Howard will power fantasy owners to league titles, even though
he should provide some degree of stability. However, players such
as Alexander
Mattison, Latavius
Murray and Chase
Edmonds - even Darrel
Williams if he ends up being the clear backup to Clyde
Edwards-Helaire as has been reported recently - could very
well do so if injuries and/or illness becomes an issue. It's often
a matter of roster construction and balancing the amount of stability
and risk that it possesses, but fantasy owners too often make
the safe play when there is a ton of potential upside to be had
by going the opposite direction. Especially as it relates to Mattison's
fantasy owners who don't have Dalvin
Cook on the roster, the worst-case scenario to stashing Mattison
is having a potentially valuable trade chip later in the season.
Mattison will be of significant interest to Cook's fantasy owner
regardless, and he'll command a hefty return if Cook gets hurt
again. Under almost no circumstance will Howard do the same.
The idea that a running back can miss two full seasons due to
injury and make an impact upon his return isn't quite unprecedented,
but it is highly unusual. Nevertheless, I find myself starting
to believe in the possibility that Jerick McKinnon can be the
most valuable running back in the San Francisco backfield. His
most obvious advantage of the mismatch potential he provides is
in the passing game; it's the primary reason HC Kyle Shanahan
& Co. pursued him as hard as they did in free agency in 2018.
We know from Shanahan's time in Atlanta (136 running back targets
in 2015 and 117 in 2016) as well as his first year with the 49ers
(166 in 2017) that he has no problem making the running back a
big part of the passing game. Granted, none of those teams had
the defensive personnel San Francisco had last year and carries
over into 2020, but there are enough question marks and injury
concerns with the receivers and tight ends on this roster that
the 49ers may need McKinnon to assume a bigger role than initially
anticipated. Don't forget Shanahan once reportedly envisioned
McKinnon as his new version of Devonta Freeman; it reasonable
to believe the ex-Viking's time away has changed his coach's opinion
all that much. I'll stop short of predicting McKinnon will take
the starting job from Raheem Mostert this season, but I would
not be a bit surprised if it happens. Fantasy owners can do much
worse than speculating on a running back in a Shanahan offense
with good hands.
Doug Orth has written for FF Today since 2006 and been featured
in USA TODAY's Fantasy Football Preview magazine since 2010. He
is also a high-stakes player who often appears as a guest analyst
on a number of national sports radio shows, such as Sirius XM's
"Fantasy Drive." Doug is also a member of the Fantasy
Sports Writers Association.