For the majority of owners, the fantasy playoffs begin next week.
In some high-stakes leagues like the The
Fantasy Championship (TFC), the postseason begins this week
and the league champion is decided next week (although the postseason
continues through Week 16 as owners compete for the $200,000 grand
prize). In some other high-stakes leagues, the playoffs are already
underway. In some of those same leagues, waivers/free-agent pickups
are no longer allowed. For those folks, this week's contribution
probably won't help you much. For everyone else, owners need to
find players who can help carry them to the finish line and have
a bit of faith their limited - in many cases - resumes will lead
their owners to fantasy glory.
Every season tends to produce at least a few under-the-radar
players who end up being the difference between a fantasy championship
and a playoff run that falls just short. Some of those players
are still on the waiver wire even as we head into December. A
late-season injury to a current starter tends to be the most common
path for these rags-to-riches stories, but that is usually only
half the battle, as the situation must be at least somewhat conducive
to success and it certainly helps if the schedule cooperates.
Obviously, I am of no service to you if I only provide players
that are nearly universally owned, so the purpose of this article
will be to identify the longshot players available in most leagues
capable of contributing. Many analysts will try to do this kind
of thing next week, but a lot of folks in highly competitive leagues
don't need or want after-the-fact waiver wire pieces; they need
analysts willing to be wrong in the hope they will be right. Fantasy
football tends to favor the owners who are a little quicker on
the draw and trust what they see, thus avoiding the high FAAB
cost when a player you've been eyeing breaks out the following
week.
Instead of using the criteria I did last
year for a similar article - 75 percent available on Yahoo
- I have chosen simply to discuss players I have seen available
in the multiple high-stakes leagues in which I am involved. My
rationale for this is simple: if said players are available (or
have been in the last week or two) in what should be among the
most competitive of leagues with 18- or 20-man rosters, chances
are most of them will be available in your leagues as well. The
purpose of this article is not to find an elite option on the
waiver wire - the odds of that happening at this time of the year
are long unless some owners decides he/she is going to "stick
it" to the league and drop such a player - but rather highlight
some potential non-obvious options who could round out an otherwise
powerful lineup before the fantasy playoffs are over. Unlike previous
years, I'm focusing more on players who can help you based on
talent and situation and less due to schedule.
It may be gross, but keep your mind open
on Bortles who has positive matchups on the schedule.
Quarterbacks
Blake
Bortles, Jacksonville Remaining fantasy schedule: IND, SEA, HOU, @SF
First of all, if Aaron
Rodgers is available in your league like he was in half of
my RTS leagues, pick him up immediately. The idea you could
get perhaps the best quarterback in the league back for the two
most important games of your fantasy season - despite the fact
his matchups would be against the Panthers and Vikings - should
be reason enough. If it's not, think about how much he could help
your potential opponent during your league's final two playoff
rounds.
Assuming Rodgers is not an option, I don't like the selection
of Bortles any more than you do, but my job isn't to pick out
my favorites and ignore those I don't like based on what they
may or may not have done in the past. For starters, Leonard Fournette
hasn't been the same runner since Week 6. Over that same time,
Bortles has seen his involvement in the offense pick up dramatically.
Through six games, he averaged 28.3 pass attempts. Over his last
five, he's averaging 35.6. He's lowered his interception rate
slightly over that time as well, but the biggest change is that
he is running more often. In recent weeks, he has displayed a
fairly steady if unspectacular floor, which means something when
one considers the current state of the quarterback position outside
of the recognized every-week fantasy starts such as Tom Brady
and Carson Wentz. There is no way I'm trusting Bortles to lead
my team to a fantasy championship by choice, but owners will be
hard-pressed to find a more favorable rest-of-season slate if
their QB1 gets hurt in the next week or two. The Colts (Week 13)
and Seahawks (Week 14) are without their top cornerbacks, while
the Texans (Week 15) and 49ers (Week 16) have been hemorrhaging
fantasy points to quarterbacks for the majority of the season.
Wild-card
Patrick
Mahomes, Kansas City Remaining fantasy schedule: @NYJ, OAK, LAC, @NYJ
This is nothing more than a gut feeling based on how far the
Chiefs' offense has fallen off in recent weeks, and he is certainly
no than a stash candidate for now in deep leagues. Alex Smith
hasn't regressed, he has simply morphed back into the player he
was prior to the first two months of this season. Why? Largely
because defenses went back to the way they've played him in the
past, using a heavy dose of zone coverage to contain the speed
of Tyreek Hill and make Smith anticipate throws, which is something
that he has been hesitant to do dating back to his final years
in San Francisco. While seeing a receiver come open before throwing
it goes a long way in keeping interceptions down (a Smith trademark),
it also goes a long way in keeping touchdown totals down as well
(another Smith trademark). Or, in the words of Cardinals HC Bruce
Arians: "No risk it, no biscuit." Even freaky athletes
like Travis Kelce and Hill can't always get open in the three
seconds (or fewer) quarterbacks typically have to throw the ball.
When this happens, Smith seems to default to leaving the pocket
as opposed to going through his progressions.
In all likelihood, Mahomes is nowhere close to being ready to
run a NFL team yet. He is everything Smith is not: aggressive,
reckless and impulsive. And yet, he is exactly what this offense
needs in order to get to what it really wants to do, namely someone
to give Kareem Hunt some running room in order to set up play-action
for Kelce and Hill. Mahomes' gunslinger mentality and bazooka
of an arm would, at the very least, force defenders to back up
instead of relentlessly shooting the gap on predictable running
downs. This is a big deal because the offensive line has struggled
so much over the last month. (The regularity with which Hunt is
being forced to avoid tacklers in the backfield moving east and
west is an incredible departure from what we saw through the first
five or six weeks of the season.) The irony of it all is the same
kind of shotgun-heavy, somewhat-gimmicky offense that made Smith
a MVP candidate for the first half of the season actually fits
the rookie better. Even though HC Andy Reid has done a fine job
of squashing any talk of Smith losing his job, a move to Mahomes
is probably closer to happening than many believe.
Running Backs
Aaron
Jones, Green Bay Remaining fantasy schedule: TB, @CLE, @CAR, MIN
The reason to add/stash Jones ties directly into my earlier (optimistic?)
stance on Rodgers. If the best quarterback in the league is ready
to return for the stretch run, doesn't it make sense owners might
want the running back who will likely be tied to his hip over
that same time frame? I get it, hoping/expecting two injured players
to return and help owners deliver a fantasy championship is risky
business, but this little hobby of ours isn't exactly known for
its predictability either. I also understand the Packers' backfield
could get to be a crowded one fairly soon if Jamaal Williams is
able to build upon his Week 12 performance and Ty Montgomery (ribs)
returns soon, but there is little question Jones was the best
back in Green Bay for the short time he was healthy.
Jones offers big-play ability the other two do not, so owners
can probably overlook his relative lack of involvement in the
passing game for a potential RB2 many can pick up off waivers
this week. He also returned to practice this week, which obviously
is a good sign he could be ready for the stretch run. Perhaps
he does nothing more than share carries the rest of the way, but
I find it hard to believe HC Mike McCarthy would resort to a committee
when his team isn't going to have any margin for error the rest
of the way when it comes to wins and losses. Hoping Montgomery
and Williams will be the difference against a team like Minnesota
isn't going to help Green Bay get in the playoffs. Jones has already
proven he can be a difference-maker.
Austin
Ekeler, LA Chargers Remaining fantasy schedule: CLE, WAS, @KC, @NYJ
By now, Ekeler should be owned in the vast majority of PPR leagues,
even if most folks are just looking at his contributions to the
box score and nothing else. The undrafted rookie free agent out
of Western State has logged his three highest snap counts over
the last three games, essentially filling the role Danny Woodhead
occupied in 2015 without stealing the bulk of Melvin Gordon's
touches in the red zone. It's an ideal situation for both players
and one the Chargers will probably stick with for a while since
the offense has started to come alive in recent weeks. Owners
hoping to steal a victory over the next three weeks could do a
lot worse than Ekeler, since Cleveland, Washington and Kansas
City do not exactly constitute a murderer's row of stout defenses,
especially for backs like Ekeler who do their best work in the
passing game.
Rod
Smith, Dallas Remaining fantasy schedule: WAS, @NYG, @OAK, SEA
This one seems fairly obvious considering Smith is getting more
playing time than Alfred Morris since Ezekiel Elliott's suspension
was upheld and the more trusted back in the passing game. With
that said, he's still available in enough leagues to be included
here. The Cowboys could fall out of the playoff race very soon
and will probably play from behind more often than not while Zeke
serves the final three games of his suspension, so why not use
that time to find out if Smith should be the long-term backup
to Zeke? Dallas' remaining schedule without Elliott - at home
versus Washington before hitting the road to face the Giants and
Raiders - is less daunting than the first three games were - Atlanta,
Philadelphia and the LA Chargers - so a strong argument can be
made Smith has a shot to be flex-worthy through the end of Week
15.
Indulge me for a second while I take a bit of time to get around
why I am listing two players here. With each passing week, I appreciate
a little bit more how good Chris
Carson must be. Consider the 2017 seventh-round draft pick
is still the team's second-leading rusher (behind QB Russell
Wilson) despite the fact he got hurt late in Week 4. Also,
of the Seattle running backs with at least 10 carries (of which
there are five), only Carson (4.2) and J.D.
McKissic (4.5) are averaging more than 2.6 yards per carry.
At any rate, if reports Carson may return to practice this week
prove accurate, then he is almost certainly the Seahawks' running
back owners will want to add over the next week or two.
Assuming Seattle is merely using December to get Carson back
to full speed before unleashing him for a potential playoff game
- which seems the more likely alternative of the two given the
seriousness of his injury - then Davis is someone owners need
to consider as bench depth at the very least. Davis' numbers in
Week 11 weren't overly impressive prior to his groin injury, but
most of us only needed to see the eight touches he had during
that Monday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons to
see he was clearly the best "big back" the Seahawks
have trotted out since Carson went down.
With Philadelphia, Jacksonville and the Los Angeles Rams next
on the schedule, I doubt we are talking about a huge upside with
either player. With that said, running backs capable of posting
10 PPR points in any week during the fantasy playoffs are always
in short supply, and Davis (or definitely Carson) would qualify
if either one is given the lion's share of the touches, allowing
McKissic to settle into more of the scatback role he is more ideally
suited for at the moment. Given the likely game script in each
of their next three games, one could easily make the case McKissic
would be the best option anyway, but the odds of him still being
available in deeper and/or more competitive leagues is probably
a 50-50 proposition at best.
Wild-card
James
Conner, Pittsburgh Remaining fantasy schedule: @CIN, BAL, NE, @HOU
Maybe this is the year Le'Veon Bell doesn't crack and he survives
400-plus touches … or maybe not. To give you some sense
on just how much I doubt Bell will last the final five games,
I own Conner in four TFC leagues and don't have Bell. (I didn’t
land a pick above No. 4 this year and there is no trading in TFC,
so I never had a shot at Bell.). Bell is on pace for 455 touches,
and last week was the first time since Week 6 he averaged more
than four yards per carry. At his current pace of 28 touches per
game, the 25-year-old needs to avoid getting injured on roughly
140 touches in December. While he has defied the odds to this
point, it's hard to imagine he'll continue to do so much longer.
The Steelers have long avoided a committee backfield, so it stands
to reason they would saddle up Conner should Bell miss time down
the stretch. As is the case with Jamaal Williams in Green Bay
at the moment, Conner is not an elite talent and Pittsburgh's
remaining schedule is not exactly favorable to runners, but any
back in line for 25-30 touches is going to be relevant in fantasy
almost regardless of his situation.
Wide Receivers
Josh
Gordon, Cleveland Remaining fantasy schedule: @LAC, GB, BAL, @CHI
Let's address the elephant in the room right away. Not only is
Gordon a complete wild-card in the sense he will play his first
NFL game in three years in Week 13, but his supporters tend to
forget he wasn't all that great the last time he played. Furthermore,
most owners who have "big plans" for him this fantasy
postseason will only get one look at him before they need to decide
if they want to take the plunge. So let's be clear that Gordon
is not for everyone: there is a significantly higher chance he
fails to do anything of note over the final four weeks of the
fantasy regular season than any possibility he will dominate like
he did in 2013.
With that said, would it really surprise anyone if he did dominate?
After all, we're talking about a player who averaged 117.6 yards
receiving during a season during which he was reportedly and supposedly
under the influence of drugs for every game. The fact he pulled
off this feat with Jason Campbell, Brian Hoyer and Brandon Weeden
as his quarterbacks makes it all the more incredible and is probably
the very reason why some owners never lost faith in him.
Here’s my advice (since I was surprisingly able to land
him on the cheap in one 20-man roster RTS league three weeks ago
where I could use a little help at receiver and could afford to
burn a roster spot on such a high-upside player in my pursuit
of the $200 K grand prize): he will almost certainly receive shadow
coverage from Casey Hayward this week. Hayward is Pro Football
Focus' top-ranked coverage cornerback as well as its highest-graded
overall corner. IF Gordon can post something close to a 4-55-0
line or better, I will strongly consider using him against Green
Bay in Week 14. Depending on those performances, I will decide
whether or not he should get the nod in Weeks 15 and 16.
(Warning: humble team brag): Fortune favors the bold, so on a
roster with Russell
Wilson, Todd
Gurley, Alvin
Kamara, Melvin
Gordon, Adam
Thielen and Jimmy
Graham, I'm shooting for the stars. Do I expect Gordon will
return to 2013 form this year? No. But as is the case with Aaron
Rodgers, I'd rather have him on my bench doing squat than watch
him be the final piece to someone else's puzzle. It's the very
reason I added him in the FF Today Staff League last week and
The Huddle Expert Auction League before that.
Chester
Rogers, Indianapolis Remaining fantasy schedule: @JAC, @BUF, DEN, @BAL
I'm not sure Rogers will pass Donte Moncrief on the official
depth chart this season. But for fantasy purposes (and possibly
in Jacoby Brissett's mind), he probably already has. Ten targets
over the last two weeks is not exactly something to write home
about, but it works out to three more targets than Moncrief has
seen over the last four games combined. One good thing about Rogers
is that he was generating plenty of hype from the team during
the preseason prior to suffering a hamstring injury that put them
out of commission for the better part of September. His snap counts
are still lagging well behind Moncrief's (101-82 over the last
two weeks), but as a rule, owners should be more concerned with
how often a player is getting targeted when he's in the game more
than his number of snaps. His 6-104-1 line in Week 11 against
the Pittsburgh Steelers is proof he can deliver the goods with
Brissett at the controls, but owners mostly turned a blind eye
toward Rogers because Brissett hasn't earned enough respect in
the fantasy community to make owners/analysts believe in him.
(After all, if he can't make T.Y. Hilton relevant, why would Rogers
be any different? Right?)
The reason to give some consideration to Rogers after this week
against the Jaguars is because the rest of the schedule does not
shape up well for Hilton, and it would be unreasonable to think
every contest from here on out will be "a Jack Doyle game."
Is that enough for him to return anything more than WR4 value?
I'd say he has a shot to do just that in Week 14 at Buffalo and
perhaps even Week 15 against Denver.
Dontrelle
Inman, Chicago Remaining fantasy schedule: SF, @CIN, @DET, CLE
After Chicago made its midseason trade with the Chargers for
Inman, I'm not sure there was ever much doubt he would eventually
emerge as the top option in Chicago. It turns out owners only
had to wait about a month, as he has been Mitchell Trubisky's
clear top option since the Bears' Week 9 bye. Inman's 22 targets
over the last three weeks is highly encouraging for a team noted
for its run-heavy offense, and it's hard not to like upcoming
games against the 49ers (Week 13) and Browns (Week 16). The Virginia
product has served as a nice fill-in on a couple of my playoff-bound
teams already, and I am as confident in him to score 10 PPR points
in a given week as any other receiver currently available on most
of my leagues' waiver wires.
Wild-card
Mack
Hollins, Philadelphia Remaining fantasy schedule: @SEA, @LAR, @NYG, OAK
Over the final four to five weeks of the RTS regular season,
I strongly considered Hollins each and every time. I ultimately
opted to go in a different direction each time, but only because
there isn't a lot of clarity at receiver in Philly behind Alshon
Jeffery and Nelson Agholor. It's entirely possible Hollins' time
won't come until 2018, so take what I'm about to say however you
wish. Hollins is in many ways a younger and more dependable version
of Torrey Smith, and the Eagles are treating him as such of late,
giving him nearly as many snaps as Smith in two of the last three
games. Will that grow into a more substantial role as the Eagles
clinch their division and perhaps the NFC in the coming weeks?
Only time will tell, but it seems logical they would do so, especially
if they are committing 30 snaps per game to him now with nothing
wrapped up yet.
Tight Ends
Ricky
Seals-Jones, Arizona Remaining fantasy schedule: LAR, TEN, @WAS, NYG
It's a story we see play out year after year. Backup quarterbacks
tend to build a rapport with the receivers he plays with the most
often. In most cases, those players aren't on the first-team and,
quite often, they are on the practice squad/scout team. As most
fans know, players on practice squads/scout teams can be filled
with players who are just hanging on for their NFL lives or attempting
to start a career. Others, like Seals-Jones, are making the switch
from undrafted and oversized college spread receiver to a position
more befitting of their 6-5, 243-pound frame.
As luck would have it in Arizona this season, the first two quarterbacks
- each of whom HC Bruce Arians was more familiar with - suffered
injuries, leaving third-stringer Blaine Gabbert playing for his
first reputable play-caller in the NFL. Seals-Jones, who had not
considered playing tight end until cousin Eric Dickerson (yes,
the Hall-of-Fame running back) encouraged him to do so this spring.
Fast forward ahead to Week 11 and the Gabbert-to-Seals-Jones connection
is alive and well, rooted primarily in the hours they spent together
this summer.
While some will be quick to dismiss his splashy start (seven
catches for 126 yards and three touchdowns) as a fluke, very few
players go from no playing time to five or six targets per game
in the blink of an eye unless they are flashing some serious potential
in practice, and HC Bruce Arians already admitted that was the
case with Seals-Jones. What's perhaps the most amazing development
with Seals-Jones is that Arians is not limiting him in terms of
his route tree. Two weeks ago, he lined out wide and beat Texans
CB Johnathan Joseph for his first career touchdown catch on his
second career reception. He later high-pointed the ball on a double
move on another TD catch against Houston CB Kevin Johnson the
next time he was targeted later in the game. Just as impressive,
Jaguars safety Barry Church almost completely whiffed on his attempted
jam of Seals-Jones on the line of scrimmage on his first catch
of the game last week.
Folks, I'm here to tell you that kind of thing doesn't happen
very often with tight ends, and particularly not ones who are
in the beginning stages of learning their position regardless
of whether or not they have a receiver background. Limited snaps
be damned (all 25 of them over the last two weeks), I'm willing
to bet Seals-Jones is more than just a flash in the pan because
he's going to be targeted when he's in the game. Most importantly,
his new quarterback seems to love him, so as long as Gabbert is
pulling the trigger and the Cardinals continue to increase Seals-Jones'
snaps (and why wouldn't they?), I believe we are looking at a
player who could help owners bring home some fantasy titles at
what can sometimes be a hopeless position in fantasy, especially
with games against a pair of defenses who have shown little ability
to contain tight ends (Week 15 against the Redskins, Week 16 versus
the Giants).
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.