As a pre-Thanksgiving treat, I gave you The
Delicious Dozen last week. Of course, the holidays aren't the
holidays unless your blood pressure spikes a bit, so it only makes
sense I provide the negative half of the passing-game picture this
week.
Receiver-cornerback matchups are among the most critical ones
in the real game, yet very few fantasy analysts spend any time
breaking them down in much (if any) detail for what I can only
imagine is a fear of being wrong or a general lack of readily
available information. That's not a shot at the fantasy industry,
it's just the cold hard truth in a lot of cases. I hate being
wrong more than anyone I know, but that doesn't mean I shouldn't
take a shot at being right … no?
In a team game, the receiver vs. cornerback battle is often as
individual as it gets at the skill positions. Without getting
into too much of a philosophical discussion about how individual
it is, we can generally assume that a defense will remain either
a team that uses a “shadow” cornerback or opts to
“play sides” and not change its method during the
course of a game. Receivers tend to move all around the formation
and many of the top receivers nowadays spend time in the slot,
so the most any analyst can say with any certainty is that a certain
receiver should see a lot of a certain receiver in coverage
based on where he has lined up in the past.
While the receiver position will probably always remain the most
difficult fantasy position to predict from week to week, we do
have some tools at our disposal to evaluate just how difficult
their upcoming matchups are. Pro Football Focus has many stats
that can help us to make informed decisions about what receiver
vs. cornerback matchups we should target, and I am using their
coverage grade (as opposed to their overall grade) as a tool to
help discern what receivers could be in for a slow day. Below
is a list of the 12 cornerbacks most likely to slow down fantasy
receivers, ranked from the 12th-best to the best.
Last week, I focused on the best individual receiver vs. cornerback
matchups owners can shoot for in the coming weeks. This week,
we will discuss the ones owners need to try to avoid.
Note: The average
number of coverage snaps for the 111 cornerbacks to qualify (as
in the player isn't currently suspended, on IR, no longer employed,
etc.) for PFF's rankings was 296 this week, so I chose to use
that number to eliminate players who aren't or haven't been "full-timers".
Below each write-up is the remaining schedule and the projected
matchups each corner should see in coverage in that week. Please
note while I do watch enough film to feel confident about my projected
matchups, I am not so naïve to believe I've got each one
pegged. Receivers move across the formation a lot nowadays, while
most defensive coordinators seem to favor keeping their corners
on one side of the formation.
Dez Bryant has a difficult schedule ahead
including battles with Josh Norman and Janoris Jenkins.
12. Tramaine Brock, San Francisco (PFF
Coverage Grade: 81.7)
The 49ers defense has become something of a punching bag in recent
weeks, but very little of the blame should fall on Brock. Despite
playing the second-most snaps of any cornerback in the league
(and over 100 more than most of the players on this list), he
is allowing only 49.2 percent of the passes thrown in his direction
to be completed. He has allowed five touchdowns to be thrown in
his coverage, so he hasn't exactly been a shutdown type. Brock
was the corner who got beat by Michael Floyd on his critical 26-yard
grab late in the Week 10 game that set up the game-winning field
goal, but it should be noted he started out the play lined up
across from Larry Fitzgerald until Fitzgerald motioned behind
Floyd in a stack prior the snap, leaving Brock with whichever
receiver took the out-breaking route. Carson Palmer had over five
seconds to throw on the play and it took a great catch by Floyd
in order to make the play happen. In reviewing the last three
games, Brock does not appear to be a stationary corner, nor does
he appear to be a shadow corner either, making him something of
an enigma when it comes to predicting what receiver he will line
up across most often.
11. Brent Grimes, Tampa Bay (PFF Coverage
Grade: 82.8)
Long known as perhaps the scrappiest corner in the league, the
33-year-old Grimes has been the lone bright spot in a poor secondary
in 2016, although his stellar play hasn't come without giving
up a few big plays as well. (For comparison's sake as to how relatively
good he has been versus other Bucs, rookie Vernon Hargreaves III
starts opposite him and took the No. 1 spot in The Delicious Dozen
last week. Suspended CB Jude Adjei-Barimah has logged the third-most
coverage snaps for Tampa Bay and has a 62.9 coverage grade.) The
5-10, 185-pounder has been more good than bad, however, breaking
up eight passes and intercepting two while yielding four scores
and a completion percentage of 55.6. Grimes gave the Bucs a scare
last week when he suffered a quad injury and did not return, but
he appears to be on track to return to his usual LCB spot in Week
12 against the Seattle Seahawks.
Rodgers-Cromartie has dabbled with being considered a top-flight
corner throughout his nine-year NFL career, but he has struggled
to put it together for consecutive seasons for a whole host of
reasons. With the organization choosing to use its first-round
pick this spring on CB Eli Apple, DRC was asked to play the slot
on a more regular basis and has done a good job with it (137 of
his 309 coverage snaps have taken place inside, as opposed to
32 all of last season). Janoris Jenkins has evolved into a near-shutdown
force in his first season with Big Blue and been asked to "shadow"
on occasion, which usually leaves the 6-2 Rodgers-Cromartie with
a substantial size advantage over most slot receivers and a talent
edge over many No. 2 wideouts after spending most of his career
squaring off against other teams' top receivers. My film study
reveals DRC tends to line up at LCB in two-wide sets in games
in which Jenkins doesn't shadow, so the odds are high the former
will spend nearly all of his time defending at least two different
receivers the rest of the way (given how often he appears in the
slot).
9. David Amerson, Oakland (PFF Coverage
Grade: 83.7)
The Washington Redskins' fan base may feel like their team hasn't
done much wrong over the last two years, but one move the front
office probably regrets more and more is waiving their 2013 second-round
selection in late September of his third season. He was claimed
by the Raiders shortly thereafter and immediately installed as
a starter. The rest, as they say, is history. Amerson finished
last season as PFF's No. 9 cover corner and inked a four-year,
$38 million deal to remain in California. The 2016 season hasn't
been quite as good as 2015 (he gave up one touchdown after signing
with Oakland prior to Week 4 last year and has coughed up four
scores this season), but he has tallied 10 pass breakups and two
interceptions while forcing a multitude of tough catches. With
free-agent signee Sean Smith capably manning the right side of
the defensive formation, Amerson spends the bulk of his time on
the left. Owners should take note that DC Ken Norton Jr. is a
product of the Pete Carroll coaching tree and, as such, tends
to use his fair share of Cover-3 zone coverages.
Remember when this guy was a free-agent bust after Brandin
Cooks abused him for a 98-yard score in Week 1 and he was
benched after surrendering 183 yards in his coverage against the
New Orleans Saints? Well, his life has gotten better since then.
Smith has yielded only 282 yards in nine games following Week
1, not allowing a catch in his coverage in two games over that
stretch. In two other games, he gave up one reception. He is also
riding an eight-game streak in which he hasn’t surrendered a touchdown.
In short, he is probably the first player on this list owners
really need to consider avoiding when it comes to individual matchups,
especially since Amerson has shown a bit more vulnerability and
slot corner D.J.
Hayden made an appearance in last week's Delicious Dozen.
As noted above, Smith spends the majority of his time on the right
side of the defensive formation, which figures to be a big deal
for owners during fantasy playoff time when the Raiders face the
San Diego Chargers and Indianapolis Colts in Weeks 15 and 16,
respectively.
With shadow corners becoming a dying breed and shutdown corners
virtually extinct, it's good to know the league still has a few
players like Peterson who can sometimes be both. Some readers
may be surprised by his relatively low ranking on the list considering
his reputation, but the sixth-year pro is actually asked to shut
down No. 1 receivers every week as opposed to playing a side,
unlike so many of the other top players at his position. He followed
Stefon Diggs all over the field last week - including the slot
- and held him in check after Diggs had posted back-to-back 13-catch
games, and he has more than held his own in individual matchups
against Brandon Marshall, Kelvin Benjamin and Mike Evans this
season. Unlike a player like Sean Smith in the preceding paragraph,
Peterson is one of the handful of corners owners can pretty much
expect to stay attached to the opponent's top threat on every
play, which obviously makes about every WR1 he faces a WR2 at
best that week. Need proof? Peterson has yet to allow more than
73 receiving yards in a game this season and surrendered only
two touchdowns in his coverage.
6. Casey Hayward, San Diego (PFF Coverage
Grade: 84.3)
Note to all 2017 fantasy owners: Assuming Joey
Bosa continues to develop and contributes to an improving
pass rush AND CB Jason Verrett can stay healthy, the Chargers
have a great shot of being one of the best defenses in the league
next year. Verrett has already established himself as a fine corner,
but his injury forced Hayward to prove he was more than a slot
corner, and he has done exactly that. Hayward has allowed one
TD in his coverage and a passer rating of 55.6, which is several
points better than more highly regarded corners such as Marcus
Peters (64.4) and Richard Sherman (59.1). The ex-Green Bay
Packer hasn't been untouchable by any stretch of imagination,
however, as the Tennessee Titans burned him in the slot with Tajae
Sharpe, Kendall
Wright and even Harry Douglas, although it should be noted
Hayward simply did not look right in that game despite making
a second-quarter interception. While Hayward hasn't received much
publicity for following No. 1 receivers, he has seen significant
time on Julio
Jones and Demaryius Thomas in recent weeks, so I'll make the
assumption below the Chargers are will use him as a "shadow" at
least part of the time.
Jenkins earned a reputation as a big-play cornerback (for both
the offense and defense) during his days in St. Louis (here
is an example of one of his more notable breakdowns a few
years ago), but he has been mostly rock-solid in his first year
with the Giants, occasionally being asked to shadow the other
team's top receiver. He has allowed only one touchdown through
10 games after yielding at least five in each of his first four
seasons with the Rams. Despite his sometimes-shadow usage, Jenkins
is giving up the lowest passer rating into his coverage (64.4)
and completion percentage (53.2) of his career. He made Dez
Bryant a virtual afterthought in Week 1 and has done little
but earn
a ton of praise from teammates and coaches since. As noted
earlier, Jenkins doesn't need to be a shadow corner for the Giants
thanks to Dominique
Rodgers-Cromartie, but it is a good bet they'll use him like
one for most of the rest of the year.
4. Josh Norman, Washington (PFF Coverage
Grade: 85.4)
Every week, I am reminded of a belief I had when I was first
became a football fan: NFL coaches must be some of the smartest
people in the world. Every week of football I have watched over
the last 10 years or so, I am reminded how glad I am not as naïve
as I used to be. I mention this because Washington chose not to
use its new $15 M/year corner in shadow coverage against Antonio
Brown or Dez Bryant in Weeks 1 or 2, opting to stick with DC Joe
Barry's preferred method of having his corners staying mostly
on one side. The results were predictable and Barry has since
occasionally used Norman as a shadow. While he has obviously still
been very good, the All-Pro corner hasn't quite performed at the
level he did during his 2015 breakout campaign, giving up three
touchdowns after allowing two all of last season with the Carolina
Panthers. His league-high 12 penalties also don't help his overall
grade either, but quarterbacks are only completing 52 percent
of their passes against him. Considering Barry cannot be trusted
to put his best corner on the opponent's top receiver each week,
there's a decent chance in any given week a player like Dez Bryant
will be able to use and abuse Bashaud Breeland enough early on
that he'll be worthy of a fantasy start even though he shouldn't
have been. For now, I'm choosing to believe Norman will shadow
the elite wideouts remaining on Washington's schedule and remain
a left cornerback against teams that do not have such a receiver.
While the fantasy world has been focused on the play of teammate
Xavier Rhodes (noted in the "other" section below),
the old guy (38 to be exact) opposite him continues to age like
fine wine. Newman is doing things right now that most 28-year-old
corners shouldn't be expected to do. The two-time Pro Bowler is
allowing a measly 8.6 yards per catch, has been beat for only
one touchdown and surrendered a ridiculously low 23 yards after
the catch for the season. (You are reading that correctly.) Meanwhile,
he has seven pass breakups and one interception. So, in case owners
were wondering why the Vikings have shut down so many receivers
over the course of the year, hopefully this information sheds
some light on the topic. Now comes the bad news (at least for
football fans and owners of the Detroit Lions' receivers), at
least in the short term: Newman is doubtful for Thanksgiving Day
with a neck injury. Moreover, S Harrison Smith and usual slot
CB Captain Munnerlyn (the latter of which would likely replace
Newman if he can't go) are both questionable with ankle injuries,
so owners expecting Minnesota's defense to "bring it"
in front of a national audience may instead be witness to a Golden
Tate highlight reel. I will list Newman's likely matchup for Turkey
Day below, but it appears Trae Wayans will be needed to step up
in a big way if the Vikings hope to ride their vaunted defense
to another win.
2. Malcolm Butler, New England (PFF Coverage
Grade: 86.6)
Butler received some mention in last week's piece as a result
of Logan Ryan's struggles, but he'll get some more love here as
well. As noted last week, it isn't always the easiest thing to
figure out what HC Bill Belichick or his coordinators have up
their sleeve in a given week, but the usual method of madness
in regards to defending elite wideouts in New England is to have
Butler shadow an opponent's No. 2 receiver, while Ryan takes the
No. 1 option and almost always receives safety help. When the
other team doesn't possess such a threat, Butler will usually
line up as a LCB and stay put. But as I've already implied, that
isn't always the case and, as such, it makes it very difficult
to say with any degree of certainty which receiver Butler will
face the most in any given week. What we do "know" is
that the West Alabama product has yielded 35 or fewer yards in
his coverage six times in 10 outings this season and quarterbacks
are completing only 52.9 percent of their passes against him.
1. Chris Harris Jr., Denver (PFF Coverage
Grade: 87.5)
According to PFF, Aqib Talib has been the league's best corner
by a wide margin, and it is hard to argue with that notion. He
has yet to allow a touchdown while intercepting three passes and
quarterbacks have a passer rating of 37.0 (!!!!) when throwing
in his direction. (However, he has missed some games recently
and doesn't qualify for this list as a result.) Usually that would
mean the player opposite him would typically get targeted like
crazy, except for the fact Harris is simply better than most of
the receivers he lines across from too. (It also helps explain
why Bradley Roby is the Broncos CB that gets picked on.) Like
Talib, Harris is allowing fewer than 10 yards per catch and less
than 54 percent of the passes thrown in his direction to get caught.
Because Harris has been so good in recent years, Denver often
feels comfortable leaving Talib on the left side, while Harris
takes the defensive right side and moves inside against three-wide
sets. In short, third receivers who line up exclusively on the
outside and face the likelihood of running routes against Roby
have the best chance of success against the Broncos. That’s
a pretty small hook to hang your hat on, so the easy lesson to
learn here is one we already knew: avoid using receivers facing
Denver as much as possible.
Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
