As I have for the past six-plus years, I will continue sharing my
thoughts on my NFL.com Playoff Challenge entry and playoff money
leagues with Fuzzy's Fantasy Football as we head into the second
week of postseason odyssey. Let’s get right to it:
NFL.com
For a complete rundown of how players will score fantasy points
for your team, click on the “Rules
& Prizing” link on the NFL.com entry page. Much
of the content immediately below is included on the “How
to Play” page, although the information I provide below
should be more than enough to follow along easily.
The requirements: one QB, two RBs, two WRs, one TE, one K
and one D/ST. You will earn fantasy points based on their on-field
performance during their game, and if your player's team wins,
you will have the option to carry that player over to the next
round, where he will earn a bonus point modifier to his score
(which will be referred to as 2x, 3x and 4x from here on out).
For example, if you pick Aaron Rodgers in the Wild Card round
and the Packers win, you can carry him over to the Divisional
Round, and earn two times (2x) the points he earns in his divisional
round game. If Green Bay wins again, you can carry Rodgers into
the Conference Championship round for 3x the points and, if the
Packers make the Super Bowl, you can earn 4x the points. In addition,
a user can select a player/defense in the Wild Card round even
if their team has a bye into the Divisional Round. In this case,
the user would not earn any points for the Wild Card round, but
be eligible to earn 2x points in the Divisional round, since the
player was on the team’s roster for two weekly scoring periods.
Further bonus point modifiers would also apply as long as that
player’s team continues to advance in the NFL Playoffs.
Before we get into the picks, let’s briefly review the rules
and how we may use them to our advantage: 1) passing TDs are worth
four points, so passing yards are valued more highly here than
in the Fuzzy’s leagues I’ll discuss later; 2) all
field goals under 50 yards are worth three points, which means
we are more concerned about volume of field goals than distance
– unless we can find a kicker who regularly converts from
50-plus (DraftKings does not use kickers); 3) this is a non-PPR
format, which obviously favors the big-play threats (both Fuzzy's
and DraftKings are PPR); and 4) team wins are worth five points,
so picking a “winning” defense is worth almost a touchdown.
Let's get the No. 1 rule of this game out of the way right now:
if you have a good feeling about which
two teams will meet in the Super Bowl, build your lineup exclusively
from players from those two teams. Last year's champion
built his lineup with only players from the Seattle Seahawks and
New England Patriots. (In other words, he took a zero in the first
week since both the Seahawks and Patriots were on a bye.) The
multipliers are everything in this contest, so playing the week-to-week
matchups is nearly meaningless. Think about it this way: if I
told you that your regular-season fantasy team's scoring would
double in Week 2, triple in Week 3 and quadruple in Week 4 if
you simply left it the same, would it affect your draft strategy?
Of course it would. The big week your team might post in the first
week of this challenge - in the somewhat unlikely event you played
the matchups to a tee - is going to seem rather insignificant
in early February when every passing touchdown is worth 16 points
and every other TD is worth 24 and the top teams in this competition
are scoring 200-300 (or perhaps more) points.
Therefore, the main challenges are (in order): 1) correctly predicting
the two conference winners and 2) forecasting the best fantasy
players in that hypothetical Super Bowl matchup.
So far, so good. I went 4-for-4 with my straight-up picks last
weekend, which means I'm one step closer to identifying the correct
Super Bowl teams. Since the first round of the playoffs pretty
much played out as I predicted, I will not be spending much time
on this section and focusing more on the DFS/Fuzzy's section.
Quarterbacks
Cam Newton/Tom Brady/Carson Palmer/Alex Smith/Russell Wilson
The call:Carson
Palmer (2x). No change here. Arizona is still my NFC favorite.
Green Bay is not an intimidating matchup this week, especially
considering the Packers figure to be without CB Sam Shields (concussion)
again. I doubt we'll see a repeat of the 38-8 rout we saw in Week
16, but the Cardinals are a far superior team in my estimation,
so I'd lean toward another fairly sizeable margin in the desert.
Assuming Arizona moves past Green Bay, Palmer could get another
relatively soft matchup against the Panthers' banged-up secondary
should each of the top seeds advance.
Running Backs
The chalk: Set Johnson in your lineup and
move on.
Jonathan Stewart/James White/David Johnson/Charcandrick West/Spencer
Ware/Marshawn Lynch/Christine Michael
The call: David
Johnson (2x) and Spencer
Ware. Since I'm carrying over Johnson from last week, I'll
focus on my other pick for this spot. Unfortunately for me, the
Chiefs decided to stick with their Week 17 backfield arrangement
(favoring Ware over West as opposed to using to leaning on West
in between the 20s and Ware in relief as well as near the goal
line). I suppose if there are two consolations here, they are:
1) I doubt many people predicted a Cardinals-Chiefs Super Bowl,
so I'm still in a very good place if that happens and 2) I'm making
the change after one week and still positioning myself for a 3x
in the Super Bowl. Although a same-team swap after one week is
far from ideal, I'm still positioning myself for a very good finish
in this challenge should Arizona and Kansas City continue to stay
alive.
The call: Michael
Floyd (2x) and John
Brown. Floyd is a carryover, so I'll spend the rest of the
time talking about my WR2 selection. Maclin was my pick last week
and one I don't regret; it's not as if I could have predicted
he would suffer a high-ankle sprain and/or be a secondary option
against Houston when he had been mostly the primary option in
each of the previous six weeks. Fitzgerald was my runner-up for
the spot last week, but I’m going to make the change to
Brown this week for three key reasons: 1) Maclin is obviously
hurt and his injury is one that typically doesn't allow a player
to perform at his peak within 1-2 weeks, 2) Fitzgerald hasn't
topped seven targets, six catches or 55 yards receiving in any
of his last four contests AND will see a lot of the Packers CB
Casey Hayward (the team's highest-graded corner), who also doubles
as the team's slot corner against three-wide formations and 3)
Brown offers huge big-play potential and is the Arizona wideout
that should see the easiest individual matchups consistently should
Shields not play this week and should the Panthers eliminate the
Seahawks.
Since I still believe in a Cardinals-Chiefs Super Bowl, it doesn't
make much sense to utilize players such as Edelman and Baldwin
(players I don't think will make it to the big game), which is
why I'm basically left choosing between two Arizona receivers.
(Shockingly, I'm still not willing to consider Albert Wilson or
Chris Conley.)
Tight Ends
Greg Olsen/Rob Gronkowski/Travis Kelce
The call: Travis
Kelce (2x). I can understand how some might feel like my pick
of Kansas City is borne out of stubbornness, but I really don't
think the case. The Chiefs' most notable strength (their front
seven on defense, especially the pass rush) plays perfectly against
the weaknesses of their likely two remaining AFC opponents in
New England and Denver (offensive line) should Kansas City continue
to advance. Maclin's injury makes it even more likely the Patriots
try to contain Kelce, although I'm not sure there is another tight
end in the league outside of New England more capable of pulling
a Gronkowski (essentially overcoming a defense designed to stop
him) than Kelce. The temptation here is strong to make the switch
to Gronk and predict a Cardinals-Patriots finale, but the AFC
is wide open and the idea with this entry is to have the best
"contrarian Super Bowl" lineup I can have. I don't think
Maclin's absence (or being limited) will have nearly the effect
on the Chiefs' offense as some do, if only because I think Kansas
City's defense will be much more effective stopping the New England
offense than most believe. Additionally, the Chiefs should be
able to scheme Kelce open just as often as the Patriots do likewise
with Gronkowski. (They'll likely need to if they hope to make
it past this weekend.)
Having explained why I don't consider Gronkowski an option this
week, I am left only with Olsen, who ripped Seattle for seven
catches, 131 yards and a touchdown in a Week 6 win. The Seahawks
have clamped down against tight ends since their early-season
struggles against the position, however. I'm sticking with my
prediction of Seattle winning at Carolina this weekend, eliminating
any further thought of switching my pick in this challenge to
Olsen.
Since the pick-your-studs competition with Fuzzy's and the salary
cap game of DraftKings essentially use the same PPR scoring (six
points for passing touchdowns with Fuzzy's versus four fantasy
points with DraftKings; three bonus points for 300 yards passing
or 100 yards rushing/receiving versus no such bonus with Fuzzy's
being the biggest differences), I'm going to essentially combine
the two this postseason. I think by projecting each remaining
team one week at a time, I will be able to kill two birds with
one stone in this regard.
Below you will find my position-by-position projections. The
players I have noted with an * are ones I feel should be roster
staples. Please note I have included DraftKings' dollar
value to each player I have projected, followed by their projected
point total in that format (DraftKings and then Fuzzy's). Because
I went into some detail above, I won't spend explaining each projection
here - only some of the more notable ones. Each position is sorted
by my DraftKings' projected point total.
Key for quarterbacks, running backs, receivers
and tight ends: P Yds - Passing Yards P TD - Passing Touchdowns INT - Interceptions Ru Yds - Rushing Yards Ru TD - Rushing Touchdowns Rec Yds - Receiving Yards Rec TD - Receiving Touchdowns Rec - Receptions
Unlike last week, this position is quite top-heavy and features
a handful of players that could throw for over 300 yards and/or
multiple touchdowns. Even though Palmer's overall statistics from
Arizona's Week 16 rout of Green Bay weren't all that impressive
from a fantasy perspective (265 yards, two TDs, one interception),
we should keep in mind that two of the Cardinals' scores in that
game were defensive, possibly robbing him of three or more passing
scores. The odds of the defense repeating their Week 16 scoring
explosion are obviously long, so it wouldn't surprise me if Arizona
makes up the difference in the passing game in a game I expect to
be the least competitive of the four Divisional Round games. In
theory, Brady probably possesses the most upside given his reputation
and the return of Julian Edelman, but I think owners would be taking
an awful risk in playing him in arguably the most difficult passing-game
matchup of the week. I'm fairly certain the majority of owners will
look back to the Week 6 Seattle-Carolina showdown and project another
high-point total for that contest (and thus, very good games for
Newton and Wilson), but I find it very hard to believe this won't
be a trap game for fantasy purposes in a series that has been dominated
by low-scoring battles.
Thankfully, we have at least one staple at running back this week.
Unfortunately, DeAngelo Williams appears unlikely to make it back
in time from his foot injury to give us two and I'm probably not
going to recommend Marshawn Lynch even if he plays (long layoff
plus difficult matchup with relatively low-scoring upside for his
DFS price point). For the purposes of play-the-studs and DFS competition,
I think we can pretty much eliminate all but the top five from consideration.
Although the Chiefs allowed only 71 catches to the running back
position this season (tie for sixth-fewest in the league), the combination
of poor line play and Steven Jackson lacking the explosiveness of
his younger self probably makes this a James White game. Ware only
has six receptions in nine games, suggesting he is a very risky
pick in fantasy given the likelihood Kansas City will not be leading
wire-to-wire again this weekend. While I have him projected for
a touchdown above, it is very likely that is exactly what he'll
need in order to be serviceable in fantasy.
This brings us to our two safest non-Johnson plays of the week:
Toussaint and Stewart. Todman was the better back in the Pittsburgh
backfield last week as far as I was concerned, but Toussaint handled
a full workload (21 touches, including 17 carries) and out-snapped
him 49-14. With Roethlisberger ailing and Antonio Brown likely
unable to play, the odds are strong the Steelers will attempt
to control the clock, meaning Toussaint is going to see a heavy
workload again. The upside with Toussaint isn't great given his
average talent level and extremely difficult matchup, but I'll
take 20-plus touches from him over the potential 6-8 I might get
from roughly 75 percent of the other options at this position.
Stewart enjoyed his finest fantasy performance of the year in
the regular-season meeting at Seattle (20 carries, 78 yards and
two scores), so I can't blame any owner for rolling the dice with
him with so few quality options available. Carolina is one of
the best in the league in running zone-read, so I'm not worried
about Stewart getting enough yards to give him a decent fantasy
floor. The problems: Stewart is not the first choice of the goal
line, he hasn't played since Week 14 and the Panthers don't ask
him to contribute much in passing game. Most of the backs that
have fared well versus the Seahawks the season in fantasy have
done so because of their ability to make a few plays as a receiver.
Counting on finding fantasy gold with Stewart twice in the same
year against a defense that gave up a league-low five scores to
the position is a very risky proposition.
The likely absence of Antonio Brown this weekend removes one potential
staple from this group and leaves owners in a bit of a quandary
for reasons I'll get to in a bit, especially in those leagues where
we are asked to start three receivers (as is the case with DraftKings
and Fuzzy's). Edelman returns from an eight-week absence this week
and is likely to square off most of the time against Chiefs slot
CB Ron Parker, who isn't exactly a plus-matchup for the Patriots'
slot extraordinaire. Given New England's offensive line limitations,
however, the Patriots almost need to force-feed Edelman (or Amendola)
the ball. Obviously, I'm not crazy about the long layoff or the
nature of his injury, but he has been practicing for nearly a month.
He's a player I'm willing to take a chance on sight unseen.
Given the mystery around Floyd's knee injury in Week 17, I don't
consider him the safest play either. With that said, the recent
pre-Week 17 numbers would seem to suggest Floyd had taken over
as Palmer's top receiving threat. He'll likely see a lot of Green
Bay CB Damarious Randall, who has held up well as a rookie. Nevertheless,
Fitzgerald's aforementioned matchup with Hayward may be reason
enough for Palmer to pepper his outside receivers (John Brown
and Floyd) with targets. The critical choice in many lineups this
week will be at the final receiver slot, where I think any one
of six candidates has a realistic shot at helping his owners finish
in the money. The safest bet is probably Thomas, who scored twice
against the Steelers in Week 15 (with Brock Osweiler at quarterback)
and will likely run most of his routes against turnstile CB Antwon
Blake. The highest upside bet is probably Sanders, who tagged
his former team for a 10-181-1 line in the same game.
Assuming Antonio Brown cannot play this weekend, Wheaton has
done enough to be a budget-conscious DFS option and will be the
odds-on favorite to take over Brown's role on offense (albeit
with not nearly the same kind of effectiveness). Cobb is a worth
a shot simply because I expect the Cardinals to shadow James Jones
with Patrick Peterson. In Week 16, defending Cobb wasn't such
as much of a concern for Arizona since it still had Tyrann Mathieu;
the Cardinals obviously don't have the luxury now. Since I feel
like I've already laid out John Brown's reasonable path to success,
I'll wrap up with Baldwin, who I believe has a juicy matchup with
recently-signed slot CB Cortland Finnegan. Carolina CB Josh Norman
rarely travels into the slot and Baldwin spends a great deal of
time there, especially in the 3-by-1 formations Seattle has experienced
so much success with over the second half of the season.
Talent or defensive scheme? That is the question owners will have
to ask themselves regarding Kelce this week. New England was among
the best in the league defending tight ends this season and has
really only faced one team recently team in which the tight end
was the clear top option in the passing game and the receivers around
him were league-average at best (Tennessee). If we do use the Titans
as an example, it bears noting that Delanie Walker was limited to
two catches in Week 15 against the Patriots, but both went for touchdowns.
Despite New England HC Bill Belichick's reputation for shutting
the opposing team's top offensive threat, we've seen a few examples
of players this season with the ability to overcome it. I'm not
going to pretend like I have a handle on what Kelce's ownership
percentage will be, but I would argue that he is in line for a massive
target total regardless of what New England does to stop him.
As if getting burned by Miller last week wasn't enough, I'm going
to recommend him again this week (assuming Antonio Brown is unable
to play). The expected clock-killing offense I expect from Pittsburgh
this week will almost certainly have to involve Miller, who has
long been a reliable third-down weapon for Roethlisberger. With
Big Ben's shoulder likely to limit his deep throws, moving the
chains (and protecting the Steelers' woeful secondary) will be
more of a focus than trying to outscore the opposition. If Pittsburgh
has any hope of defeating Denver, it will need a big performance
from the veteran tight end. Olsen is a strong consideration simply
because of the aforementioned success he enjoyed against Seattle
a few months ago, but it should also be noted that Gary Barnidge
is the only tight end that has topped 9.5 PPR fantasy points since
Week 11. Gronkowski is always going to be in the discussion because
he has proven himself to be nearly matchup-proof. With that said,
Kansas City S Eric Berry has been playing at a supremely high
level and should not be underestimated in terms of his ability
to keep Gronk out of the end zone. I think the odds are long that
Gronkowski is worth his DraftKings' price tag this week. In a
play-your-studs competition, I think I'd rather trust Olsen.
Key for kickers and defense/special teams
units: XP - Extra point FG - Field goal PA - Points allowed TO - Total turnovers TD - Defensive/return touchdowns
I don't expect the same field day Arizona provided fantasy owners
in its Week 16 thumping of the Packers, but I still feel they are
the play of the week. The general consensus is that Green Bay found
its offense last week and, while that be true to a certain degree,
I disagree. The Packers receivers were still having trouble separating
and it took some improvisational plays from Rodgers to get the offense
moving. Arizona is much better in the secondary than Washington
and more aggressive up front than the Redskins - a combination that
does not bode well for Rodgers & Co. In a "normal"
week, I would not hesitate paying up for the Seahawks or the Chiefs
and certainly wouldn't be afraid to use either one in a play-your-studs
format. However, I am not so confident in my Tyler Lockett kick/punt
return for a touchdown or Kansas City pick-six prediction that I'm
willing to pay the extra few hundred dollars than I would for the
Cardinals. Without a doubt, I feel Arizona and Denver are the safest
plays at this position. Doug Orth has written for FF
Today since 2006 and been featured in USA Today’s Fantasy
Football Preview magazine since 2010. He hosted USA Today’s
hour-long, pre-kickoff fantasy football internet chat every Sunday
in 2012-13 and appears as a guest analyst on a number of national
sports radio shows, including Sirius XM’s “Fantasy Drive”.
Doug is also a member of the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.
