Outside of the handful of fantasy draft days I have each year in late August and early September, there might not be a time I look forward to more than when I get to set up the Big Boards.

While the release date of my first set of Big Boards is still unknown at this time, there is a good chance I will have the first ones done by the start of this weekend – a few days ahead of my usual Tuesday preseason deadline. I plan on adding a fourth Big Board for those drafters playing in The Fantasy Championship and, if time allows, the FFPC. I’ve discussed some of the changes that are coming with the Big Boards over the past few weeks and I’m convinced they will allow me to transition much easier across different scoring setups, thus allowing me to do the extra work. There’s a good chance by completing a set of rankings for PPR, 0.5 PPR and standard scoring as well as the TFC and the FFPC, I will be able to offer a Big Board that will be useful to just about anybody that visits this site.

Over the last three weeks, I’ve forecasted the first four games for the AFC and NFC East, the AFC and NFC North and the AFC and NFC South. By default, that leaves us with the AFC and NFC West. Let’s dig in.

Below you will see my initial first-quarter projections for each of the eight total teams in the AFC and NFC West. I have color-coded the matchups for the full season, however, because I still think it is essential for owners to know what they are signing up for in the second half of the season (and especially the fantasy playoffs) when they select a certain player. The stat projections and schedule analysis will still factor into the overall ranking of a player on my Big Boards, but will be one of about six or seven position-specific attributes that will be weighted, graded and scored. Those attributes, their explanations and the overall grades will make their first appearance on the Big Boards in mid-August.

Here’s a quick refresher of what each of the colors mean in each team’s projection chart below:

Red – A very difficult matchup. For lower-level players, a red matchup means they should not be used in fantasy that week. For a second- or third-tier player, drop your expectations for them at least one grade that week (i.e. from WR2 to WR3). For elite players, expect them to perform one level lower than their usual status (i.e. RB1 performs like a RB2).

Yellow – Keep expectations fairly low in this matchup. For lower-level players, a yellow matchup is a borderline start at best. For a second- or third-tier player, they can probably overcome the matchup if things fall right. For the elite players, expect slightly better than average production.

White – Basically, this is a neutral matchup. In some cases, I just don’t feel like I have a good feel yet for the defense. Generally speaking, these matchups are winnable matchups for all levels of players.

Green – It doesn’t get much better than this. For non-elite players, the stage is basically set for said player to exploit the matchup. For the elite player, this matchup should produce special numbers.

For an example as to the amount of possibilities and factors I consider, take a look below at the San Diego Chargers’ projections. Steve Johnson does not have a single “red” on his schedule because: 1) players like the Cleveland Browns’ Joe Haden and Miami Dolphins’ Brent Grimes rarely move into the slot when a player like Johnson slides inside and 2) although I am high on corners like the Minnesota Vikings’ Terence Newman or the Pittsburgh Steelers’ Brandon Boykin to defend him, I doubt either player will shut him down. Furthermore, slot work figures to only be part of what Johnson does, so he’ll probably see Haden or Grimes line up across from him anyway at certain points. That is why he gets a yellow and not a red or a white. In other cases (which I will discuss as we move along with these projections), players like Grimes play on only one side of the ball while virtually every receiver will see time on the left and right side of the formation. In still other cases, the quality of the quarterback (Kansas City is probably the best example out of these eight teams) can take a potential green matchup and turn into a neutral one. As you can tell, a lot of thought goes into the color-coding system.

Other important notes:

- The gray highlight in each team’s schedule reflects a road game and the numbers above them correspond to the weeks of the season. Black boxes represent bye weeks. The age you see by each player will be that player’s age as of September 1, 2015.

- These are my initial projections and therefore subject to change. In a few cases, the changes will be dramatic. In other words, don’t be alarmed if the projections on the Big Boards are different from the ones you see here.

Key to the table below:

PPR Aver - Points per game in full-point PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
NPPR Aver - Points per game in non-PPR leagues where all touchdowns are worth six points.
PPR - Total points scored in PPR
Non-PPR - Total points scored in non-PPR.

AFC West

The truth of the matter is that if Broncos wanted to go all-in with the passing game this year, Manning could easily lead the league in passing. Denver has bigger fish to fry, however, namely keeping Manning healthy. General Manager and Executive Vice President of Football Operations John Elway and Kubiak have been consistent in suggesting that preserving Manning is of the utmost importance, so expect the Broncos to ride their quarterback only when necessary before the bye. With that said, the Broncos didn’t re-sign Thomas for $14 M per year to have him block or serve as a decoy, so expect Manning to remain a mid-tier QB1 at the very least and Thomas to continue being a top-five fantasy receiver – especially against this schedule. After those two stalwarts, volume may become an issue. I fully expect Daniels and Green to do a reasonably good job of replacing Julius Thomas, in large part because Denver is expected to use more two-tight sets and Kubiak’s offense has made the tight end more of a priority than most. Despite all the yellow on the schedule, I’d suggest that Owens and Green will do more to hurt each other’s fantasy value more than their opponents. The Broncos love Green’s blocking ability, so he will see plenty of snaps. (It might help to think of this arrangement as a poor man’s version of Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener, with Green playing the Allen role.) Both players should be drafted in most fantasy leagues and considered high-end TE2s. That brings us back to the one player that is most likely to disappoint, especially given his current ADP – Sanders. Something will have gone terribly wrong for the Broncos if Sanders comes anywhere close to 141 targets (or 101 catches) he had a season ago. Lack of volume will be his biggest enemy, although Latimer is almost certain to play a bigger role in the offense this year. Considering he still has Manning throwing him the ball and will move into the slot in three-wide packages, Sanders should still have a relatively safe floor – especially considering the lack of quality secondaries on Denver’s schedule. A 70-80 catch year sounds about right.

How it is possible for Denver’s passing-game schedule to look so easy and for Kansas City’s to appear so difficult? Whereas most of the quarterbacks in the NFL have the ability to stretch the field 40-plus yards, Smith doesn’t. Some of it is because Smith is such a conservative thrower (not necessarily always a bad thing) and some of it is based on the fact he lacks the arm strength most passers have nowadays. The Chiefs have stated they want Smith to be more aggressive downfield and he’ll have more tools to do so this year than he did in his first two years with the team, but I doubt it will make much of a difference. As has become the norm, Smith will probably burn fantasy owners about as much as he helps them. Considering how much yellow appears on his schedule, I’d just as soon another owner keeps him around as a QB2 on their roster. Kelce is the closest thing fantasy football has to a challenger to the tight-end throne that been occupied by Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham. As such, I’m not going to lose too much sleep over matchups with him. His biggest obstacle (Fasano) has been removed from the equation, leaving only his ball-security issues and Smith’s lack of desire to go downfield as the two factors keeping him from realizing his statistical ceiling. Kansas City knew it had to pony up to get Maclin, who I tend to believe will bring some legitimacy to the team’s wide receiver position for the first time since Bowe was in his prime. With that said, I don’t think he has any chance to produce like most owners – real or fantasy – would expect out of a wideout making $11 M per year. Just because he is an upgrade over Bowe, Smith has yet to really make any of his receivers into a true fantasy star in his career. Furthermore, it should be noted the Chiefs have ranked last in the league in fantasy scoring at the receiver position in three straight seasons, including both years with Smith as the quarterback and the Andy Reid/Pederson brain trust calling the shots. Touchdowns will be hard to come by and it could be argued that Kansas City will make feeding Charles, Davis and Kelce in the red zone more of a priority than Maclin.

For the first time since the days of Kerry Collins and Randy Moss, there is reason for some hope with the Raiders’ passing game this year. Carr did the most he could last year despite having very little to work with and Cooper is about as polished of a receiver as the college game can produce nowadays. Unfortunately, Carr will probably remain as a bye-week fill-in at best in fantasy with only five favorable matchups this season (four neutrals and one green). I will have no problem drafting Cooper as a WR2 in my leagues, which should serve as an endorsement to his skills since I handed him four red matchups. I do like the fact that after Week 11, he only faces only one elite secondary. I’m pretty sure I’m scraping the ceiling of Crabtree’s fantasy ceiling with his first-quarter projection, although the Raiders seem to be pleased with the one-year investment they made in him thus far. He is a potential WR4 available at the end of drafts, making him the type of value owners should target with one of their final picks. I don’t expect him to ever regain his pre-injury (Achilles) form, but he makes sense as a possession-receiver type in an offense that should get a fair amount of work in garbage time. I fully expect Walford to start over Rivera in short order. I’m obviously not crazy about rookie tight ends or the difficulty of his schedule, which is why the 44-catch pace I have him on is probably his ceiling. Regardless, his ability to get downfield keeps him on the low-end fantasy TE2 radar.

There’s no question the season-opening four-game suspension of Gates hurts this team, but I’d argue San Diego is better equipped to handle it this season than at any other point in his career. Green is one of the best – if not the best – backup tight end in the league and should be able to replace Gates’ passing-game numbers during the suspension IF given the chance to do so. “If” is the operative word, however, since Rivers has two strong short and intermediate targets at receiver now with Allen and Johnson. The schedule is unlikely likely to hold either player back and Johnson figures to benefit the most from the Chargers’ current setup since he will play the same favorable red-zone role Royal did over the past two seasons. If the starting jobs in San Diego are based on merit, Johnson should also push Floyd into a part-time downfield threat. Don’t be surprised if Johnson’s production rivals Allen’s in 2015. Rivers might get off to a shaky start to the season, although he has earned quite a reputation for overcoming the matchup. After Week 3, I’d only be threatened by three matchups: Baltimore (Week 8), Denver (Week 13) and Miami (Week 15). Assuming his back is no longer an issue, he should be a more-than-serviceable fantasy QB1. Green didn’t get a particularly good draw from the schedule during Gates’ absence, but I’d be more scared of the Chargers’ perplexing inability to find regular playing time for him before now than his opponents. It will be interesting to see what San Diego does in the preseason with Gates and Green and just how much attention Rivers will pay to the latter; that could go a long way into deciding whether Green is low-end TE1 material over the first four weeks of the season.


NFC West

Matchup analysis: In an age in which most teams have chosen to employ committees and use backs with different skill sets and/or sizes to fill them, the Cardinals’ top three runners at the moment (Ellington, Johnson and Kerwynn Williams) are essentially the same kind of back. It is an interesting twist and one HC Bruce Arians says he is using so he doesn’t have to adjust his game plan due to injury or fatigue. He apparently has no plans to ease up much on Ellington, who fought through several injuries before seeing last season end due to a sports hernia. In other words, savvy owners looking forward to the fantasy playoffs may want to invest a later-round pick in Johnson since he would probably become a 20-touch-per-week player in the likely event Ellington gets hurt or wears out late again. As far as the matchups go, a healthy Ellington should be able to produce at a high-end fantasy RB2 level if he maintains the kind of workload Arians has suggested he will. Arizona has done enough on the offensive line since Arians’ arrival that his offense should be able to pound away at some of its weaker opponents. The third-year coach has typically also made good use of his running backs in the passing game, so Ellington (or Johnson) has a reasonably high fantasy floor. The downside to both backs is their inability to run inside and convert in short-yardage situations, which means another player like Stepfan Taylor or FB Robert Hughes may end up being the designated goal-line back if Arizona doesn’t add a thumper during the preseason. Obviously, this severely curbs the fantasy upside of both Ellington and Johnson.

A year ago, an injury to Floyd would have been thought to be devastating news to the Cardinals’ passing game. In 2015, it seems as though it is just another reason for owners to start investing more heavily into the fantasy stock of Brown. Floyd is expected to be back around the start of the regular season after he dislocated three fingers early in camp. In Arians’ offense, it is unlikely to make much of a difference since Arizona clearly established that it wants Palmer throwing the ball to the open man as opposed to force-feeding one particular receiver. I’m also reasonably certain that despite Floyd’s obvious size and experience advantage, I’d rather own Brown in redraft leagues at the moment. Brown has seemingly been the apple of Palmer and Arians’ eye from the moment he arrived in Arizona and proved as a rookie that he can beat just about any defender deep. Fitzgerald gets a bit more of a break from the schedule than his fellow receivers, but the spread-it-around philosophy that was clearly established last year makes predicting the weekly “winner” of the receiver corps a fruitless exercise for now. As 2014 proved, Palmer MUST stay healthy for the Cardinals to have any chance on offense. He took advantage of a reasonably soft slate last year to leave a positive impression on his owners prior to his ACL injury, but should face more of a challenge this time around. Given the quality of his receivers, most of Palmer’s green matchups should be very advantageous matchups and most of his yellows are borderline neutral. I wouldn’t want to trust him as my weekly starter, but I’d feel comfortable plugging him into my lineup in roughly 10 of the 15 games on his fantasy schedule. Arians doesn’t seem to have much use for tight ends in the passing game, so don’t expect Gresham to push 60 receptions like he did on a regular basis in Cincinnati. If Arians’ history with tight ends doesn’t scare owners off, then the schedule probably should.