Quarterback

We typically like to pay down at quarterback given the range of outcomes isn’t as wide as other positions and with Nick Foles ($6000) being a viable cheap option, it was no surprise he was the highest quarterback owned in cash games – 45.3 % in this $25 double up. The matchup against the Texans was fine but I wasn’t really sold on Foles given his weak performance against the Rams in Week 15 and felt his chances of a dud were greater than others realized.

Once DeAndre Hopkins was declared a go and given I had the salary, I was more comfortable going with Deshaun Watson ($8000) in the same game facing a weak Eagles secondary that had given up 794 passing yards in its two previous games. The Texans were also going to be without Lamar Miller at running back so I projected a few more pass attempts for Watson in this contest. He was my No.4 ranked quarterback on the week with Foles checking in at No.16.

Dak Prescott ($7300) was also wildly popular (35.4 percent owned), playing at home against a Buccaneers defense that we’ve pick on all season long. Knowing that I was paying for Zeke at running back, I didn’t want to stack my cash game roster with an average offense that plays ball control and projected to be run-heavy, making Prescott a relatively easy fade.

Running Back

We had a plethora of running back options at every end of the price spectrum. At the high end, Todd Gurley ($9600) was quickly eliminated due to injury concerns but we still had Christian McCaffrey ($9300), Saquon Barkley ($9000) and Ezekiel Elliott ($8800) all in play with Elliott being the obvious lock given the quarterback questions in Carolina and workload/blowout risk from Barkley on the road against the Colts. Elliott was in a prime spot, at home facing a Buccaneers defense that’s given up five 100-yard rushing games this season so it’s no surprise he was the highest owned running back on the slate, hovering around 90% in cash games.

Nick Chubb ($7900) was also a lock for me, given his dominant role in the offense and facing a putrid Bengals defense that’s given up more fantasy points to running backs than Tampa Bay. While I liked Barkley’s pass game role more than Chubb, I felt more comfortable with Chubb’s game environment and had both with a similar TD expectation. Chubb’s $1100 savings made this an easy call.

Wide Receiver

My only lock at the receiver position this week was Robby Anderson ($5900). His low cost and increased role over the last two weeks made him an easy choice for cash games. His 40 percent ownership also gave you some security in case a dud occurred. By locking in Anderson, I was able to either pay for a stud like Davante Adams ($8500) or Michael Thomas ($8300) and pair him with a cheap play, or stick in the middle range and ride out Week 16 with balance at the position.

In the 7K range I liked all of T.Y. Hilton ($7700), Robert Woods ($7500) and Julian Edelman ($7000) who projected to be the lead targets in the passing game for their respective teams. With locking in a safe choice like Edelman into my lineup, I prioritized Hilton who I figured had a little more upside than Woods. Both receivers had similar matchups and with T.Y. historically posting his blowup games at home, I gave him the nod over Woods. Woods ended up outscoring Hilton by 8.1 FD points.

Tight End

My biggest mistake this week was not giving enough consideration to Zach Ertz ($7400). I did feel like there was something to the narrative that Foles wasn’t as locked onto to Ertz as Carson Wentz has been and did feel the projection between Evan Engram ($5700) and Ertz was similar. Ertz finished Sunday with 16 targets, 12 catches, 110 yards and 2 TDs. Doh! The $1700 savings went a long way into getting the receivers I wanted, making Engram the easy call.

I also considered David Njoku ($5300) and punting the position with Ryan Griffin ($4100) but couldn’t stomach such a thin play for the benefits I’d receive. Many of the cheap tight ends payed off this week with Kyle Rudolph ($5500), Chris Herndon ($5400), Ian Thomas ($5400), and C.J. Uzomah ($5000) all finding the endzone.

Flex

My main decision at running back/Flex was on Alvin Kamara ($8100) vs. Jamaal Williams ($5800) / Elijah McGuire ($5700). I wanted to get a piece of the Steelers – Saints game so I messed around with multiple Zeke-Chubb-Kamara lineups but couldn’t get comfortable enough at the wide receiver position enough to make it work. In the end, I prioritized Williams who figured to get the bulk of running back duties for the Packers who only had Kapri Bibbs in a backup role but didn’t project to see a ton of action given he was just signed earlier in the week. Paying down also left me with an extra $2300 to use at the wide receiver and tight end position.

Defense

There were a number of good defenses to consider this week. At the high end, the Rams ($4900), Vikings ($4600) and Patriots ($4300) were all in good spots but my roster construction lead me to the cheap end of the spectrum. I wanted to get up to the Saints ($3500) or Cowboys ($3700) but didn’t want to sacrifice Engram at tight end to do so. That left me with the Eagles-D ($3200) who was at home facing Watson who has a tendency to take more sacks than normal. The correlation of Eagles-D and Watson in the same lineup may seem odd but it does have paths to be profitable as defensive TDs will lead to the quarterback (Watson) getting the ball back immediately and in theory lead to more passing attempts for the quarterback.

Results

The decision not to pay down for Foles could’ve been costly but it probably wouldn’t have improved my lineup as I would’ve used the extra cash to simply replace similar scoring wide receivers. I really wasn’t on Zach Ertz which would’ve been the best place for me to upgrade so it was it nice have Watson outscore Foles by a few points and post the second highest quarterback performance on the slate. The balanced approach at wide receiver and prioritizing Engram at tight end instead of punting the position led me to a comfortable win in Week 16, pushing my record to 11-5 in cash games this season.

On to Week 17…