Who Missed the Cut in 2022 (8/10): J. Jacobs, A. Ekeler, N. Chubb, S. Barkley, J. Williams, T. Pollard, D. Cook, & M. Sanders

Josh Jacobs wasn’t terrible after earning the RB crown in 2022, but missed four games due to a late quad injury and dropped to RB25. His 11.2 FPts/G rate tells us he was still very solid when he played, which is probably why the surging Packers scooped him up this offseason. Austin Ekeler was just a couple rungs lower on the RB ladder, finishing the year as RB27 after consecutive seasons as RB1 and RB2, respectively. A very early high-ankle sprain doomed Ekeler’s chances of a third straight stratospheric season and the hopes of many a fantasy GM in the process. Speaking of doomed hopes, Nick Chubb employers had to be sick when the Cleveland stud suffered a ghastly knee dislocation in Week 2. I mean physically sick. That was not an easy watch.

Barkley and Tony Pollard were the two best performing dropouts in 2023, the former notching a RB13 finish despite missing three games (a 13.2 FPts/G mark helped) and the latter slotting in at RB19. Pollard was the only 2023 dropout to play in all 17 games, actually. The final three RB dropouts, on the other hand–Jamaal Williams, Dalvin Cook, and Miles Sanders – performed very poorly despite only missing, collectively, eight contests. Williams was easily the most disappointing of the bunch, averaging just 3.3 FPts/G as Alvin Kamara’s new complement in New Orleans, by far a career low. Cook at least had no real expectations heading into the 2023 season, having been jettisoned by Minnesota after a stellar 2022 campaign. New York didn’t even wait for 2023 to end before waiving the former Viking great and he remains unsigned this August. Nobody expected much from Sanders either, not when the Eagles kicked him to the curb and Carolina picked him up. Charlotte is where fantasy production goes to die and die Sanders did (4.0 FPts/G).

Most Likely Candidates to Fall from the Top 10 This Year:

For starters, Mostert is an incredibly high 2024 regression risk, even playing in the prolific Miami offense. Prior to 2023, he’d never scored more than 10 times in a season (2019 with San Francisco). Heck, a year prior, when he commanded just 22 fewer touches, he only scored five touchdowns! I think he’ll score more than that this year but I’d bet a pretty tidy sum he doesn’t come close to 21 again.

The obvious reason he won’t is Achane, one of the most electric rookies to enter the league in a long time. The dynamic TAMU product averaged just over one fantasy point less than Mostert per game despite scoring 11 fewer touchdowns. He also averaged 7.8 yards / carry, which would have ranked as the second-best mark for a RB in NFL history (behind some guy named Beattie Feathers) if he’d met the minimum carry requirement. He missed by a measly four carriers. Another less obvious reason to be bearish on Mostert is what Miami did in the draft, when they traded up in the fourth round to select Tennessee’s Jaylen Wright. Who trades up to draft a RB3? Mike McDaniel is who. Wright is speedy and slippery, traits his new teammates possess and his new coach loves. There’s a lot of fantasy goodness to spread in South Florida, but it’ll be spread thinner in 2024.

Rachaad White, TB: In 2024, Rachaad White is poised to be a polarizing figure in fantasy football, offering both potential rewards and risks for managers. As the presumed lead back for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, White will have ample opportunities to contribute, but whether he can convert that into consistent fantasy production is a matter of debate.

On the positive side, White's versatility is his most appealing trait. He’s a capable runner, but it’s his ability as a pass-catcher that truly sets him apart. In 2023, he showed flashes of being a reliable outlet in the passing game, finishing with over 50 receptions. With Tampa Bay’s offense likely to feature a short passing game due to questions at quarterback and offensive line, White could see even more targets in 2024, giving him a solid floor in PPR formats.

However, the concerns are hard to ignore. The Buccaneers’ offense, transitioning after the Tom Brady era, is expected to struggle, which could limit White’s upside. The offensive line remains a weak point, and if it fails to create running lanes, White’s efficiency could suffer. His yards per carry were middling in 2023, and without improvement, he may struggle to provide the kind of production fantasy managers are hoping for. Moreover, the potential for a backfield committee looms large. If White fails to impress early in the season, the coaching staff might start to involve other backs, cutting into his workload and making him a more volatile option.

Prediction: White will be a serviceable RB2 in PPR leagues, finishing the season with around 1,200 total yards and five-six touchdowns. However, his inconsistent weekly performance and the Buccaneers’ overall offensive struggles will make him a frustrating player to rely on, leading some fantasy managers to seek more reliable options as the season progresses.

James Cook, BUF: If the last 300 words or so didn’t sound like me…good ear! ChatGPT, it seems, churns out reliably hacky fantasy projections just as effortlessly as it drafts up work emails for you or ghost-written essays for your kid. I’d like to think I could have said it better myself about White, but…the bots basically nailed why he’s a problematic fantasy asset this year. He mostly benefited by never getting hurt and having no competition (Tampa recorded the second fewest RB2 carries in the league).

The same could be said of Buffalo’s Cook, though he was more efficient than his Tampa counterpart (4.7 yds / rush v. 3.6). Latavius Murray was Cook’s only real competition for carries and the well-traveled vet, now a free agent and possibly done (he was the oldest active running back in the league last season), only garnered 79 totes in 15 games. The Bills’ brass must’ve realized this wasn’t sustainable because they went out and grabbed Ray Davis in the April draft, another fourth-round RB who oozes vulture-ability.

Davis was equally well-traveled in the NCAA, having suited up for Temple, then Vandy, and finally Kentucky. Though a lot shorter than the older Murray, he’s also a physical, north-south back who could threaten Cook’s red-zone touches. Even if he doesn’t -- and it may not matter since #12 still does -- you’d have to think Davis touches the ball more than Murray’s five-ish times per game last season. Cook was solid and durable, sure, but he’s not terribly big by current RB1 standards. One last thought: If either Jahmyr Gibbs (RB11) or David Montgomery (RB12) had stolen a touch or two more from his teammate, we wouldn’t even be talking about Cook in this space. Both fell short of Top 10 status by fewer than two points.