Following the injury to Tank Dell, the Texans have used a heavy
rotation of wide receivers behind Nico Collins. But if anyone
is being treated as the WR2 in this offense, it’s John Metchie.
Metchie has consistently run more routes than Xavier Hutchinson
and Robert Woods following the injury to Dell. Last week, he showed
that target volume can come alongside those routes, drawing eight
targets while cracking a 24-percent target share for the first
time this season. Given his proven ability to function as the
No. 2 pass catcher in Houston, Metchie can be a punt option this
week.
Alongside Metchie, it’s been Dalton Schultz who’s
seen an increased offensive role in recent weeks. He’s eclipsed
a 15-percent target share in three of his last five games. While
six targets per game aren’t much in the grand scheme of
things, it’s more than viable given the wasteland that is
the tight end position in the Divisional Round. Schultz will provide
somewhat of a floor thanks to his half-dozen targets, but he is
very much reliant on a touchdown to make a significant impact
in lineups.
It’s been a tale of two seasons for Joe Mixon. Early in
the year, Mixon was eclipsing 100 rushing yards and 20 fantasy
points with ease every week. In the last six weeks, it’s
been a far tougher task for Mixon to produce RB1 numbers; he’s
cleared 11.0 PPR points just twice since Week 12.
Mixon’s intrigue is primarily driven by the fact that he
is still the overwhelming 1A in this backfield. In the Wild Card,
Mixon played 70 percent of snaps and saw 27 of the 30 backfield
opportunities. Unfortunately, this week presents a matchup where
Mixon might not be particularly effective with his touches. The
Chiefs’ defense ranks top 10 in total rushing defense, yards
allowed per carry, and fantasy points allowed to running backs.
It wouldn’t be shocking if Chris Jones and company have
Mixon boxed like a fish this weekend.
Not much has to be said about C.J. Stroud. He hasn’t scored
more than 20 fantasy points in a game since Week 4 against the
Jaguars, the league’s worst secondary. Stroud also does
not have a game with 250-plus passing yards and multiple passing
touchdowns since that Week 4 contest. The Chiefs are a middle-of-the-road
matchup for quarterbacks, but it’s not enough to lift Stroud
into fantasy relevancy.
HOU FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.10
HOU FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.27
HOU FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.10
HOU FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.19
Heading into the Divisional Round, it’s incredibly difficult
to evaluate the Kansas City offense. The starters haven’t
played since Week 17, on top of the fact that multiple injured
players (Isaiah Pacheco and Hollywood Brown) were starting to
be incorporated down the stretch.
In the midst of all of this uncertainty, there have been two
consistent pieces of this offense in recent weeks. Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes has been wheeling and dealing, scoring at least
23.7 fantasy points in each of his last two starts. It’s
also helped that the Chiefs have been incredibly pass-heavy in
these games with a 9.8-percent pass rate over expectation. A talented
Houston secondary could give him some trouble, but it’s
hard to bet against a well-rested Mahomes with a healthy weapons
arsenal in the playoffs.
Kansas City has used a nasty rotation among its receivers, but
Xavier Worthy has been able to rise to the top. He’s ran
at least 75 percent of the routes in each of his last four games,
drawing nine-plus targets in three of those contests. The consistent
volume is what’s so encouraging with Worthy. He’s
seeing a variety of looks, not just downfield bombs and designed
targets. With the most consistent role of any receiver in this
offense, Worthy is the guy to lean on in a murky group of pass
catchers.
As Pacheco has returned from a broken fibula, it’s been a split
backfield between him and Kareem Hunt. Neither back has played
more than 50 percent of snaps since Pacheco’s return. However,
the narrative has been that Pacheco will be truly fired up once
the playoffs arrive. While it’s intriguing to play Pacheco in
hopes of him receiving a larger workload, there’s no evidence
that he’ll be in an expanded role. In fact, Andy Reid said that
he plans to deploy both backs in a similar fashion to what we
saw late in the regular season. This makes Pacheco an incredibly
risky play this week, but there is plenty of upside in hopes that
Reid was simply trying to hide his true intentions.
Hollywood Brown is another player who’s been ramping up
down the stretch after returning from injury. In his first game
back (Week 16), Brown ran a route on 33 percent of dropbacks.
That number jumped to 51 percent in Week 17. He’s also been
incredibly effective at drawing targets on these routes. His 0.43
targets per route run is an elite mark. The only question is whether
his route share will be expanded upon in the Divisional Round.
If it continues to sit around 50 percent, he could easily put
up a dud against the Texans.
At this point, there is no hope that DeAndre Hopkins will assume
an expanded role in the Kansas City offense. His route participation
has consistently hovered between 45 and 65 percent, never getting
higher than 64.3 percent. With Hollywood Brown returning and playing
well, the path to more routes is even murkier. At this point,
you’re simply relying on a touchdown and an explosive play
or two. There are likely better options out there this week.
A 10-target game in the Wild Card round has fantasy managers
feeling confident about Terry McLaurin heading into this weekend’s
big matchup against the Lions. McLaurin has now finished with
at least 17 points in six of his past seven games, further solidifying
himself as one of the league’s top weapons this season.
He’s clearly Jayden Daniels’ favorite player to target
and with the Lions being over a full touchdown favorite, there’s
plenty of reason to believe that the Commanders will have to rely
more heavily on their passing game than they normally do. Assuming
that’s the case, McLaurin makes for an even stronger play
as he goes up against a Detroit defense that conceded the second-most
fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the league during
the regular season.
Zach Ertz had a bit of a down week in the Wild Card round as
he was held to just two receptions for 23 yards on just four total
targets. Those numbers aren’t very inspiring, especially considering
that Ertz will be up against a Detroit defense that was quietly
elite against opposing tight ends this season, having conceded
just three touchdowns to the position on the entire year with
only one opposing TE (George Kittle) reaching even 70 yards against
them in a single game. Ertz could probably be considered a “Fade”
given the matchup and his touchdown-or-bust track record, but
the position as a whole is pretty weak heading into the Divisional
Round so Ertz could be ranked as high as the TE4 for the week.
Washington’s Brian Robinson started the regular season off extremely
hot, but things really trailed off for him down the stretch as
he finished with single-digit PPR fantasy points in each of his
final three regular season games. That unfortunate stretch continued
into the first round of the playoffs, as well, as he carried the
ball 10 times for just 16 yards in Washington’s close victory
over Tampa Bay. While Robinson did catch a few passes to make
up a bit for an otherwise horrendous day on the ground, the concern
now has to be that Austin Ekeler is now back in the lineup and
there’s a real possibility that this just becomes a 50/50 split
backfield. With Ekeler being the more likely player to be utilized
in the passing game and a tough matchup on the ground against
a Detroit defense that was excellent against the run during the
regular season, this is just not a situation that is conducive
for fantasy points. Robinson is a player to avoid this week.
WAS FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.28
WAS FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.13
WAS FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.22
WAS FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.20
The NFC’s top seed will be in action this week as the Lions
host the Commanders, and Detroit will be looking to build off
of their impressive mugging of the Vikings in Week 18 that allowed
them to secure a first-round bye in the playoffs. Wide receiver
Amon-Ra St. Brown is always a big part of this offense and that
should continue here against Washington - a team that has done
a fairly good job against opposing wide receivers overall this
season, but who has been exploited by those teams’ WR1 throughout
the season. St. Brown is a good bet to see 10 or more targets
in this one and he’s practically a lock to deliver double-digit
PPR fantasy points along with having one of the higher ceiling
potentials of any player.
Lions tight end Sam LaPorta failed to deliver on his pre-season
fantasy ADP, but that doesn’t mean that fantasy managers
should be avoiding him for this playoff run. In fact, LaPorta
was consistently good down the stretch during the regular season,
delivering six straight double-digit PPR fantasy days to over
the final six games, and he scored four touchdowns during that
stretch. The cynic might say that LaPorts only saw 10 targets
once during that stretch and he’s clearly behind Amon-Ra
St. Brown in the target pecking order, but he’s still seeing
enough volume to probably be the TE3 or potentially even the TE2
this week. He could reasonably be considered a “Favorite,”
but I’ve put him in the “On the Fence” range
just because the Commanders defense has been quite overall good
this season and only two teams allowed fewer receptions to tight
ends during the regular season than Washington did.
With his two top targets mentioned above as players who are likely
must-starts for fantasy managers, it stands to reason that Jared
Goff is probably a good bet to deliver solid fantasy numbers this
week. If that’s all you’re looking for, then great
- go ahead and roll with the Lions quarterback this week. But
the unfortunate reality for those starting Goff is that four of
the top five quarterbacks in rushing yardage during the regular
season will be starting this weekend. While Goff has shown that
he has the ability to deliver touchdowns through the air at a
rate that can put him in the conversations with these more mobile
QBs, he simply does not have the mobility to compete with them
on the ground.
If he’s going to finish as a top-four QB this week, Goff
is likely going to need to throw at least three touchdown passes.
Again, he’s capable of doing this, but it’s also worth
considering that he’ll be up against a Washington defense
that conceded the fourth-fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks
during the regular season. Only three times did they concede three
or more passing touchdowns to an opposing quarterback and no one
got there against them after Week 10.
Quarterback Matthew Stafford had a pair of touchdown passes and
no turnovers in an upset victory over the Vikings in the Wild
Card round. Still, Stafford only managed a modest 16.3 fantasy
points in the contest. The continued, near complete silence of
Cooper Kupp has capped Stafford’s ceiling, which is already
limited by a lack of rushing upside. Against an Eagles defense
that has returned to 2022 form over the latter half of this season,
Stafford can’t be counted on for more than low end QB2 production.
Kupp broke his silence on a gorgeous, Kupp-esque 34-yard reception
against the Vikings, but it was his sole catch and target against
the league’s most wide receiver-friendly defense. With just
10 total targets over the last four games, and no more than 3
in any of those matchups, it’s become way too risky to look
to Kupp to re-emerge in this offense, even as a Flex. The Vikings
game was a golden opportunity, especially after being well rested,
but the involvement simply was not there.
While Kupp was quiet, teammate Tyler Higbee got off to a good
start against the Vikings, before exiting with a chest injury
that required a trip to the hospital. Thankfully, by all indications,
Higbee appears fine and should be active this Sunday against the
Eagles.
Unfortunately, Higbee draws a tougher defense in the Eagles.
They finished the 3rd best defense against tight ends, led in
no small part by linebackers Zack Baun and Nakobe Dean – who combined
to allow no touchdowns in coverage this season, while surrendering
under 6 yards per target, per pro-football-reference.com. There
are a fair number of solid options at the tight end position this
week, and it’s arguably worth turning their way instead of Higbee’s.
LAR FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.11
LAR FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.19
LAR FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.12
LAR FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.7
Since the Eagles Week 5 bye, Jalen Hurts has produced four different
30-point performances. It’s no coincidence that this coincides
with when the Eagles defense really started clicking, amplifying
the quality starting field position for the offense (6th overall
for the season).
Hurts, particularly with this offensive unit, is built to be
a finisher, both with his legs and arm. Even in relatively modest
passing performances, he’s tended to sure up his floor and
often even find a good bit of ceiling by collecting touchdowns.
He’s scored more than 14.9 in every game outside of the
injury-marred matchup against Washington.
Hurts carries his high floor and ceiling into yet another matchup
where the Eagles are sizable favorites. For those looking to go
left when everyone else is going right with Josh Allen or Lamar
Jackson, Hurts is your guy.
Now, when talking about A.J. Brown, I’m probably supposed
to make some joke about him reading books on the sideline, but
honestly, it’s quite refreshing to see a go-to receiver
being so calm while having a quiet day on the stat sheet.
Sure, Brown buyers won’t have that “squeaky wheel”
effect to bank on, but a player like Brown can stand purely on
his own talents, especially in an offense that makes big plays
and red zone activity the norm. There are only four elite fantasy
wide receivers left in the postseason, and A.J is one of them.
Teammate and fellow wide receiver DeVonta Smith might get a chance
to flex elite production in another offense, but he’s been
a stellar as the Eagles WR2. While Smith saw just 4 targets in
the Wild Card round, he was extremely efficient on those targets,
reeling in all of them for 55 total yards.
Efficiency is a career staple for Smith, averaging 9.1 yards
per target and enjoying a 70% catch rate since entering the league
in 2021. He has enjoyed a 6.1% touchdown rate, as well. The post
season and tougher competition has done little to slow him down,
producing 76.7 Yds/G in six playoff games. Smith, this season’s
WR17 in FPts/G (w/ at least multiple starts), is a good WR2 value
against L.A.
Tight end Dallas Goedert’s triple stiff arm score against
Green Bay is a reminder of just how physically gifted and capable
of big plays he is. In another offense, not buried behind two
stellar receivers, as well as both a quarterback and running back
who can run it in with ease anywhere near the goal line, he would
likely be a top 5 fantasy tight end.
But this is the universe in which we’re playing fantasy
football, and it’s one where Goedert is no more than a 3rd
option, and arguably just a 5th option down in the red zone. 3
touchdowns in his last seven games is encouraging, but with a
career high of 5 and so much competition for scores, there are
several regularly productive tight ends than Goedert remaining.
His talent and the matchup with a tight end-friendly Rams defense
does keep him in the mix as a mid-tier value starter.
Dotson followed up an 7-94-0 outing in Week 18 with his first
Eagles touchdown last week. It was only a couple of years ago
where it looked like Dotson might be a major factor in the red
zone throughout his career. To this point, that has not panned
out. Last week was a bit encouraging, but he still only had 2
targets, and the 11 targets the previous week came while the starters
were sitting. He’s buried in this offense and is likely
to remain quiet barring injuries to key teammates.
Andrews closed the regular season with touchdowns in each of
his last six games and 11 overall, tied for fourth in the NFL.
So, why isn’t he a no-brainer? Go back to the previous meeting
between these two teams in Week 4 when the talented tight end
went without a catch on just one target. He was quiet in the Wild
Card round as well, catching two passes for 37 yards. The common
thread is both the earlier matchup with Buffalo and last week’s
tilt is that Baltimore leaned heavily on the running game -- they
had 50 runs and 21 passing attempts against the Steelers, and
34 runs to 19 passes versus the Bills. That’s about as run centric
as offenses get in the modern NFL. No doubt, the Ravens would
love to replicate that game plan this Sunday as possessing the
ball keeps Josh Allen on the sidelines. Despite that, with Zay
Flowers (knee) expected to be inactive this week, Andrews should
have opportunities to impact the game. He’s a solid TE1 choice,
just not a slam dunk.
Even with the Ravens running the ball 50 times last weekend,
Hill logged just six carries for 15 yards. He added four receptions
for 13 yards along with a touchdown to provide some fringe value.
Hill was similarly uninvolved in the ground game against the Bills
back in Week 4, turning four carries into 18 yards. He basically
was the passing attack, however, easily leading the team in receptions
(6) and yards (a season-high 78), and a touchdown. Hill is a safe
option for Jackson, and he’s already proven he can have
success versus Buffalo. As a flex play, Hill holds some intriguing
potential.
While Bateman had just two receptions and 24 yards in Baltimore’s
Wild Card triumph over the Steelers, he scored a touchdown --
it was the fifth time in the last seven games that he’s found
the end zone. He should once again serve as WR1 this week with
Flowers still recovering from a knee injury. Despite that, his
upside seems limited. The Ravens used a lot of two-tight end sets
against the Steelers, and that could be the path forward in Buffalo
as well. In the first meeting, Baltimore’s receivers combined
for just four receptions and 43 yards. Unless the Bills push out
and force the Ravens to play catch up, expect Andrews, Hill, and
Isaiah Likely to be Jackson’s primary targets. That would keep
Bateman’s ceiling low.
BAL FPts Allowed vs. QBs: No.8
BAL FPts Allowed vs. RBs: No.26
BAL FPts Allowed vs. WRs: No.3
BAL FPts Allowed vs. TEs: No.14
It took a little while for the Bills to get going against the
Broncos, but once they did it turned into a rout. It was a balanced
attack (272 yards passing, 210 yards rushing), and although Curtis
Samuel (3-68-1) led the way in receiving, Shakir was the top target
-- he was thrown to a half-dozen times, twice as many as anyone
else, catching all six for 61 yards. The third-year pro has grown
into Allen’s most trusted option, and he led the team when
Buffalo was toppled by the Ravens in Week 4 with four receptions
for 62 yards. While Baltimore has improved their pass defense
after a horrendous start, it’s still the best way to attack
them as they boast the NFL’s top-ranked run defense (they
gave up just 29 rushing yards to the Steelers last Saturday).
Plug Shakir in as a WR3.
Pegged by some to be a breakout star in his second season, Kincaid
took a step back statistically, going from a 73-673-2 line as
a rookie to a 44-448-2 this year. Injuries bore some of the blame,
but it was disappointing, nonetheless. He played well back in
a September showdown with Baltimore, racking up five catches and
47 yards, which was a number he’d top just three times in
2024. He matched that output against Denver last Sunday, posting
a 3-47-0 line. Given his middling production, Kincaid is a bit
of a risk, but he has the talent to produce, and he’s a
potential matchup issue for the Ravens. With the expectation that
the Bills will need to lean on Allen’s right arm to advance,
Kincaid carries some real upside.
Acquired during the season to stabilize an inexperienced receiver
corps, Cooper has mostly been a disappointment, at least in terms
of numbers. In nine games with Buffalo, the veteran finished with
fewer than 20 yards five times. That includes an anemic 2-8-0
performance against Denver last Sunday. While he does have some
familiarity with the Ravens from his years in Cleveland (he averaged
3.5 catches and 57 yards per game against them in 2023), his lack
of reliable involvement makes him a bad bet for the Divisional
Round matchup.
