Fantasy football writing, like
predicting the weather, is a tough gig. Between my
preseason player profiles, and my current stint here in the
Shot Caller’s seat, I’ve experienced the highs and
lows of trying to provide information and advice to better your
lineups (and mine!). Well, as Joseph sure knows, all you can do
is keep plugging away, so off we go to a hopefully healthier Week
3!
Note: Fantasy points
based on FF Today’s standard scoring system.
Bye Weeks: N/A
One of Matt Ryan's best games of last season
(273 yds, 3 TDs) came at home against Tampa Bay.
Grab a Helmet
Matt
Ryan v. TB (Thurs): Ryan was a Week 1 darling and a Week
2 dud. On the road with a shuffled offensive line, against a fundamentally
sound Bengals defense, Ryan was a big disappointment last weekend.
But fear not, as Week 3 sees the return of rookie tackle Jake Mathews
and a home tilt vs division rival Tampa Bay on Thursday night. Ryan
is at his best in the home dome, especially against the Bucs. Last
season, without Julio Jones and with a hobbled Roddy White, Ryan
had perhaps his best game of 2013, when he put up 273 yards and
3 touchdowns in a 31-23 win. Despite a hamstring injury, it looks
like White will play, and with a stable of weapons, Ryan should
be good for a 300-yard, two-touchdown game, and a solid QB1 start.
Ryan
Tannehill v. KC: Expected to make a leap in a new up-tempo
offense, Tannehill has ascended only to mediocrity so far in 2014.
Still taking too many sacks, and unable to make consistent deep
connection with Mike Wallace, Tannehill seems a poor bet to be a
fantasy asset in Week 3. So I’m going to ignore the numbers and
go on pure gut with this one. Coming home to face a Chiefs defense
that seems to be losing All Pros by the week (Eric Berry is questionable
with an ankle injury) this is the week that Tannehill hits a few
big plays downfield. With Moreno out, look for a pass heavy game
plan (the Chiefs rank near the bottom of the league in completion
percentage, allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete nearly 73%
of their passes). Tannehill is my favorite QB2 to put up QB1 numbers
this week, making him a sneaky pick in salary-cap or daily leagues.
Drew
Brees v. MIN: By his lofty standards, Drew Brees is off
to a slow start to the 2014 season. With 570 yards and a 3-2 touchdown
to interception ratio, Brees stats are disturbingly close to Derek
Carr (414-3-2) and Chad Henne (445-3-1) But let’s be honest, if
you have Brees you start him no matter what. So what earns him special
mention in the Shot Caller’s report? He’s going to be fantasy’s
#1 QB in Week 3. The Superdome will be rocking in the team’s must
win home opener, the Saints are down a bellcow running back in Mark
Ingram, and in comes the Vikings who are embroiled in the AP controversy.
Look for the Saints offense to come out firing from the opening
kickoff and keep up a relentless offensive assault to help ease
the pressure on their embattled defense. And besides, I need one
lock in the Grab a Helmet category!
Grab a Headset
Kirk
Cousins v. PHI: I really missed in this section last
week, but instead of taking the easy way out and picking Derek
Carr or Austin Davis, I’m going to throw some cold water on the
Kirk Cousins for president campaign in D.C. Cousins does what
most great back-ups do, play well in spot starts and mid-game
substitutions. It’s a testament to his professionalism and preparation.
But expecting long term success or prolonged fantasy value could
be a mistake. In two division starts to end last season, Cousins
was downright awful, throwing for under 200 yards in both games,
and sporting a 1-3 touchdown to interception ratio. Guess what
looms on the horizon; a road date with division foe the Eagles.
Philly has the defensive chops (allowing only a 57.1 completion
percentage and 200 yards per game in the air) to make the sledding
tough for Cousins. I’m not totally down on the Michigan State
product, but I would seriously consider my options before making
Cousins my starting quarterback.
Andy
Dalton v. TEN: The Red Rifle might be missing a big
bullet this week. Putting up top 10 stats without several of his
weapons, Dalton has been a mild surprise so far this year. His
yardage has been solid, and he’s taken care of the ball, but he
only has two touchdowns, and his team can’t seem to score seven
points in the red zone. It’s doesn’t get any easier, as the Bengals,
perhaps without A.J. Green, face off against the league’s best
pass defense in the Tennessee Titans. Behind a strong secondary
(only 326 yards allowed in two games) and relentless pass rush
(2nd in the league with 8 sacks), the Titans can play man and
send rushers at Dalton all day. Expect a heavy dose of screens
to Gio Bernard, and short passes mixed with a heavy ground game.
Look for this game to be a lower scoring slugfest, which makes
Dalton a better sit than start.
EJ
Manuel v. SD: After not being able to hit a cow on
an Upstate New York dairy farm in the preseason, of course EJ
Manuel would sport a 95 quarterback rating and a 2-0 record in
the regular season. But think again before you consider trotting
Manuel out as a starter. This offense still features heavy doses
of the running game, and relies on a rookie receiver to carry
the pass catching load. Look for the Chargers, who play dull,
but fundamentally sound football to bottle up Watkins, and force
Manuel to throw the ball elsewhere. He’s an improving game
manager, but Manuel just doesn’t have the versatility (25
rushing yards) or passing volume (2nd fewest attempts among quarterbacks
who have made 2 starts) to ascend past low end QB2 status.
Running Backs 
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