The camp battle between Darnold and McCarthy is going to be
quite entertaining, as the winner inherits the keys to a potent
set of receivers and a coach that coaxed multiple 4,000 yard,
30-touchdown seasons out of Kirk Cousins. McCarthy has looked
the part of a raw, talented prospect, but he knows how to win,
unlike his veteran competition. Darnold has bounced around the
league after leaving the Jets, and finds himself on his third
team in three years. He hasn’t played a meaningful snap
in several seasons, but his pedigree, experience, and brief early
career flashes, likely make him the Week 1 starter for the Vikes.
If Kevin O’Connell is the QB whisperer many think he is,
Darnold could play well enough to win some games and keep the
rookie at bay. Minnesota is a win now team in an incredibly competitive
division, so unless Darnold completely implodes, I expect his
leash will be as long as Vikings fans allow it to be. Call me
crazy, but I can see a world where Darnold plays well, reaps the
benefits of an elite set of receivers and sneaks into fantasy
relevance. How long that lasts is the problem. With how tough
this division is set up to be, a few early season losses will
have the McCarthy chants too loud to ignore. Unfortunately, with
how deep the position is, I just can’t see either guy being
draftable options. McCarthy’s athleticism and big arm offer
the most upside when he eventually takes over, but either guy
can be plucked off the waiver wire if necessary.
After a highly successful seven-year run in Green Bay, Jones
joins his inter-division rivals, and takes over as Minnesota's
lead back. After an injury plagued start to 2023, Jones lit it
up down the stretch, rushing for 100-plus yards in five-straight
games to nearly get the Packers to the NFC title game. When healthy,
Jones plays with a swiftness and swagger that can carry an offense,
and could give Minnesota a reliable rushing element it hasn’t
had since Dalvin Cook was cut. He did prove to be effective and
efficient as a 20-carry back at the end of last season, but as
he enters his age 30 season, I’d be very surprised to see that
happen in Minnesota. Ty Chandler is a more than capable backup
and the five 20-carry games Jones had last year were more than
the previous two seasons combined. With an elite career yards-per-carry
average north of 5.0, and motivation galore, if Jones can manage
to reach 250ish touches he could be a solid RB2 value pick in
multiple formats. Just be sure to hedge your bet and handcuff
him with Chandler!
After playing sparingly as a rookie in 2022, Chandler handled
a solid 123 touches in 13 games last year as the backup to Alexander
Mattison. While he showed flashes (157 total yards and a touchdown
in Week 15) and had strong efficiency numbers, it wasn't enough
to keep the Vikings from going out and signing Aaron Jones to
a one-year deal. Chandler won’t see starters touches with
Jones healthy, but he may be one of the best lottery ticket handcuffs
in the league. A quality receiver with good speed, Chandler should
enjoy the run lanes afforded to him by defenses as they focus
on the passing game. The majority of his value comes as insurance
policy for Jones owners, but he’s certainly worth adding
for some standalone value as well, as Minnesota looks to him to
spell Jones often.
Although a serious lower body injury cost him 7 games last season,
Jefferson remained on a Hall of Fame trajectory. His 68-1074-5
line in only 10 games still had him on an elite pace. He was able
to parlay his historic early career start into the highest non-quarterback
salary in league history (110 million guaranteed) as he becomes
not only the centerpiece of the offense, but the true face of
the franchise. Hopefully lugging around all that cash bulks him
up as he prepares to carry the offense on his shoulders. With
a quarterback room filled with a cast-off and a raw rookie, Jefferson
will be counted on more than ever. Since taking over in 2022,
Coach O’Connell has dialed up the 3rd and 6th most passing attempts
in the NFL, but I have a hard time seeing that happen this season.
Darnold has proven to be turnover prone in his career, and McCarthy
isn’t ready to sling it 40 times a game. With a more balanced
attack, and Jordan Addison in his 2nd year, I just don’t see a
situation where Jefferson approaches 170+ targets unless things
go wildly off the rails for the Vikings. Even with fewer looks,
Jefferson remains one of the best we’ve seen to play the position,
and should be a top-5 finisher in all formats.
Thrust into the lineup as the No.1 receiver after Jefferson went
down with injury, Addison casually ripped off one of the best
rookie receiver seasons in team history. If you don’t think
that’s a big deal, Addison joins Randy Moss and teammate
Jefferson as impact players in just their first year. In his first
game as WR1 he torched the Niners for a 7-123-2 line, and helped
keep the offense afloat during the middle part of the year. Unfortunately,
things fell apart when Kirk Cousins was lost for the season, but
despite the dud finish, Addison proved to his team, and the NFL,
that he can’t be overlooked. He’ll no doubt play second
fiddle to first chair Jefferson, but if either QB can at least
prove to be competent, Addison would make for an upside WR3 as
the clear-cut No.2 in the passing game.
Until a nasty Week 16 knee injury ended his season, Hockenson
was absolutely grooving for the Vikings. In his first full year
in purple, Hockenson’s 127 targets were 2nd in the NFL among
tight ends, and his 95 receptions for 960 yards also placed him
in the top-5 at the position. He stepped into a large mid-season
role after Jefferson went down and was a PPR monster, proving
his multi-format value. But a large shadow looms over his 2024
season as he attempts to come back from ACL and MCL reconstruction.
Offseason reports indicate a timeline on his return has not yet
been figured out, and there remains a good chance he could start
the season on the PUP list. Unfortunately, it’s going to
take the better part of the next year for Hockenson to return
to form even when he does get back. In the meantime, the Vikings
will look to a committee approach to fill the void. Keep tabs
on his rehab and snag him at the end of the draft or off the waiver
wire if he looks to be nearing a return.
