A Fantasy Perspective
7/10/07
Hall of Famer Steve Young once said there are over 40 responsibilities
a quarterback has to execute on any given play to ensure that it
is run to near perfection. In preparing fantasy rankings at the
QB position, a fantasy owner does not need a checklist quite that
long, however, it is very important to realize that Peyton Manning
or Tom Brady do not succeed just because they are Peyton Manning
and Tom Brady. I have proposed for some time while a quarterback
must be talented and a good, quick decision-maker, his individual
success is more a function of a talented supporting cast than his
ability to make average players great. And before you present the
argument that Brady has rarely ever had above-average talent around,
I will contend that the Patriots do a better job of building their
game plan around their personnel, thus, if Jabar Gaffney and Reche
Caldwell are the best wideouts, then make your living by throwing
short. If Randy Moss and Donte Stallworth are your options, perhaps
going deep 2-3 times a quarter is the way to go.
At just about every position, a below-the-radar (and sometimes
undrafted) player gets “it” for a season and goes from waiver
wire hopeful to the final piece in your run for a fantasy title.
This position is no different. Last season was a low-priced QB
bonanza, as Philip Rivers, Tony Romo, Vince Young, Jeff Garcia
and Jon Kitna all emerged from late round or undrafted obscurity
to second-half surefire starters for those fantasy teams that
were hurt by injuries or ineffective play from their original
signal-caller. In 2005, Carson Palmer, Drew Bledsoe, Jake Plummer
and Mark Brunell did likewise.
What I will attempt to do with this four-part series covering
QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs is to give you what I hope is a fresh perspective
on just about any player which switched teams that can have any
kind of fantasy impact this season. Since a QB’s fantasy
success largely depends not only on his supporting cast, but also
on his understanding of the offensive system as well as schedule
among a host of other factors, I feel it is pertinent to put that
on the table as well. And while it is often wise to take a wait-and-see
approach on any QB changing teams due to the complexity of the
game as well as other environmental factors, some fantasy owners
just can’t help themselves to catch the next big thing even
if the odds suggest a change of scenery does take root in just
one season. In order of projected fantasy impact, let’s
take a look the QBs who switched teams this offseason and their
chances for fantasy success…
Trent Green
(From KC to MIA)
Let
me be one of the first to say it – the Chiefs just don’t seem
to get it. While I recognize the importance of making the conversion
to a younger team (and applaud it for an older team like Kansas
City), they fail each year to substantially improve their talent
base, especially in the draft. As the talent on their offensive
line has slowly gone from old to ancient, the Chiefs have failed
to make much of an attempt to re-fortify their front five through
the draft. It would be one thing if they had a first-day pick
or two that busted somewhere along the way, however, they
have not committed a first-day pick to the offensive line since
they drafted John Tait in the first round in 1999. And before
this year’s first-round selection of receiver Dwayne Bowe, the
best selection at the position for the franchise may have been
converted college running back Dante Hall in 2000. So while the
free agent market has been kind to Kansas City over the years
(Priest Holmes, Casey Wiegmann and Brian Waters to name a few
on the offensive side), the team has made little attempt to maintain
any semblance of the offense that led the league in scoring just
a few years ago.
On the other side is Green’s new team, the Miami Dolphins, whose
game of musical chairs has led them to spend four draft picks
over the last two years to acquire QBs (Daunte Culpepper, Joey
Harrington, Green and 2007 second-round draftee John
Beck). While I believe letting Culpepper go will ultimately
haunt the Dolphins a year or two from now assuming Culpepper fully
recover from his knee injury, the Dolphins have basically benefited
from the Chiefs’ youth conversion. Miraculously, in their two-or-three-stop
quest from get from Point A to Point B, Miami likely has found
a pair of QBs in Green and Beck that will put a stop to the revolving
door at the position since Miami legend Dan Marino retired.
In Miami, Green will trade the long relationship he had with
future Hall of Famer Tony Gonzalez for a trio of athletic WRs
that he has not had since his days in St. Louis (and no, they
are not in the same class as the Rams wideouts). However, Chris
Chambers and Marty Booker have both shown they can be very good
WRs in the NFL when they have a healthy QB under center and an
offensive line that affords him enough time to make a quality
throw. It would be fair to expect Green will be the best fantasy
player on this list given his supporting cast and his familiarity
with the offensive system (he worked with new HC and play-caller
Cam Cameron initially in Washington over 10 years ago). Cameron
has long shown the ability and flexibility to adjust his play-calling
to his personnel, meaning Chambers and RB Ronnie Brown stand to
profit the most. Green should be one of the first few #2 QBs off
the board, given his rock-solid job status and supporting cast.
The only upgrades – and it’s a big one – that need to be made
are improvements on the offensive line. Fortunately, his line
in Miami is just about the same as the line he leaves behind in
KC, so the upgrade in surrounding talent should mean better overall
numbers for the veteran.
Matt Schaub
(From ATL to HOU)
There seems to be a pretty fair split opinion on how wise of a
move the Texans made when they dealt two second-round picks and
dropped two spots in the first round to acquire the Falcons’ backup
QB, a signal-caller that has started a mere two games in his three-year
career. But Houston knew what most NFL observers knew, sending
David Carr out under center one more year was going to destroy
his confidence, certainly the confidence of the fan base and perhaps
that of the team. Schaub has more than six solid years of experience
in the West Coast offense (three-plus in college at Virginia -
mainly under the supervision of OC’s Mike Groh and Ron Prince
- and three in Atlanta with Greg Knapp). While every team has
some part of that offense worked into their playbook nowadays,
all three of his previous coordinators coaches run pretty pure
forms of the offense, meaning OC Mike Sherman and HC Gary Kubiak
should be getting a QB that transitions pretty smoothly once he
gets to learn his new teammates better. The biggest difference
between Schaub and Carr? Schaub is several times faster at making
a read and getting rid of the ball than his predecessor.
And whether they are getting credit for it now or not, Houston
is making some good moves to solidify the offense – something
their former QB would have like to seen happen under his watch.
Start with the offensive line. Signing Jordan Black as an insurance
policy for Charles Spencer’s 50-50 return was a smart move, meaning
Ephraim Salaam will not necessarily be forced into duty if Spencer
cannot make it back this season. Getting Black ensures that LG
Chester Pitts can stay inside, which is what Houston has wanted
all along. Already, the Texans line up better on the left side
of the line than they ever did in Carr’s tenure. Eric Winston
should be a fixture at RT for years to come, leaving the health
of Mike Flanagan and the position battle of Fred Weary and Steve
McKinney at RG the only question marks on a front that has had
too many for too long. Inking RB Ahman Green gives the offensive
a slightly healthier version of Domanick Williams and TE Owen
Daniels showed in his rookie season he is able to come through
when needed, leaving the #2 WR as the biggest question mark on
the offense. Offseason pickup Andre Davis, return specialist Jerome
Mathis and rookie Jacoby Jones would seem to be the front runners
as Kevin Walter should be a better fit in the slot.
Very few fantasy QBs get to be #1 fantasy QBs without a stacked
deck of options and an above-average offensive line. Andre Johnson,
Green and Daniels are all quality targets for Schaub to find in
the short, intermediate and deep passing game. Green’s line in
Houston should be just as good as the one he left behind in Green
Bay, meaning the running game will be able to shoulder the load
for the offense on a more consistent basis. And perhaps most importantly,
Schaub is just a better pro QB than Carr is. He is a better decision-maker,
can decipher defenses more quickly and can feel pressure in pocket
– all things Carr either did not do as well or never had the time
to do as a result of a poor protection. All told, Schaub is one
more quality WR short of being considered a breakout candidate,
so at this time, he figures to be a mid-range #2 option for 12-team
league owners with the potential for 4-6 standout games this season.
Jeff Garcia
(From PHI to TB)
It made sense (perhaps too much sense) that the Eagles keep around
a 37-year-old QB to serve as insurance for a rehabbing McNabb.
However, it probably makes more long-term sense (and is more cost-effective)
to keep A.J. Feeley in the fold. All told, Philadelphia’s short-term
loss appears to be the Bucs’ short-term gain. It hard to imagine
someone - even with as much moxie as Garcia - playing until he’s
40, so this is probably a two-year plan at best. It would appear,
though, that he will be behind center come Week 1 unless Chris
Simms taps into the playing spirit of his father, Phil, as a result
of the QB competition that will be taking place this summer.
As little credit as the Eagles WRs get on a regular basis (some
of it deserved, some of it not), one would be hard-pressed to
suggest Tampa Bay’s options are any better. Joey Galloway’s game
is similar to Donte Stallworth’s but no current Bucs appears to
have the abilities of Brian Westbrook, Reggie Brown or LJ Smith.
There is hope at TE (Jerramy Stevens and Alex Smith have talent
at TE but have lacked consistency or exercised poor judgment in
their careers) and WR (Maurice Stovall and Michael Clayton have
the size but are either inexperienced or have failed to improve),
but Cadillac Williams will not be Westbrook anytime soon, so don’t
expect Philly-like production from Garcia this season. However,
he won’t be the Cleveland or Detroit-bad either, so keep expectations
around mid-#2 fantasy QB to be drafted in the later rounds as
a backup to a top 5-6 fantasy QB. He should be a solid bye-week
QB in Weeks 3 (STL), 6 (TEN), 7 (ARI), 9 (DET) and 14 (HOU).
Josh McCown
(From DET to OAK)
McCown really knows how to pick ‘em. He has traveled from perennial
losing franchise to perennial losing franchise in his five-year
career. After starting in Arizona, he traveled up north to be
a Lion. Unfortunately in Detroit, he played just about as much
receiver as he did quarterback. In Oakland, he realizes he is
keeping the seat warm for rookie JaMarcus Russell, but what he
does in the meantime could mean another opportunity for him in
2008 or a one-way pass out of the league.
Even after Oakland and their miserable 2-14 record-setting (in
a bad way) offense of 2006, there is reason for fantasy players
to take notice of a team that plays in a black hole. Gone are
two of the worst play callers the NFL has seen in years (Tom Walsh
and John Shoop) and in comes a collective unknown but intriguing
tandem (Greg Knapp and Lane Kiffin). The Randy Moss trade was
a hard but necessary one as it was going to be hard for the new
coaching staff to tell fellow wideouts Jerry Porter and Ronald
Curry to go all out when the #1 WR wasn’t doing it. (And we all
know how well Knapp and Terrell Owens used to get along.) With
that said, Oakland is moving in the right direction. Rookie TE
Zach Miller will soon be a fine go-to option in the passing game
and Curry flashed some #1 WR-type ability late last season. Porter
may be inspired to play more like a #1 with Moss gone, but he
has never displayed a long stretch of consistency at any point
in his career. Either way, the offense will be improved because
of the play-calling if for no other reason. The line is still
the major concern and another o-line coach does not help matters
for continuity, but then again, who would want any carryover from
last year?
Figure on McCown assuming the starting role for somewhere between
the first 4-to-8 weeks of the season. Even with Russell under
center, this offense is light years away from reminding folks
of the days of Gannon-Rice-Brown or Stabler-Branch-Biletnikoff,
but they also will improve from the dreadful unit they were a
season ago. McCown should not be drafted in most – if not
all – 12-team leagues.
The following are a few more notable free agent acquisitions
at quarterback this offseason. However, each was brought on to
their respective teams strictly as a reserve, and you should not
consider selecting any of them on draft day unless the #1 passer
on the team falls to serious injury at some point in training
camp…
Joey Harrington
(From MIA to ATL)
* The anti-McCown. If Michael Vick’s legal troubles keep him away
from the game for any amount of time, Harrington will have logged
starts for three different teams in three seasons when it could
be argued that he hasn’t been a starting-caliber QB since perhaps
his second season in Detroit. Either way, Harrington can be a
decent fill-in starter for a short time but is not someone that
a team – real or fantasy – wants under center for more than a
couple games.
David Carr
(From HOU to CAR)
*Jake Delhomme should not have any immediate concern, but his
long-term future is rocky at best. Giving Carr a year to depressurize
and adjust to not being asked to be “the man” may do wonders for
his ability to hone his quarterbacking skills. Admittedly, Carr
has a long way to go but being out of the spotlight for a season
may do wonders for him. Moving to a team that so ardently believes
in defense and the running game will also be beneficial.
Patrick
Ramsey (From NYJ to DEN)
*There is no need to use a pick with Ramsey. Jay Cutler’s status
as the Broncos’ QB is pretty solid.
Brad Johnson
(From MIN to DAL)
*An interesting option in the event that Tony Romo gets hurt or
fails to build on his impressive early showing last season as
the Cowboys have several top-notch weapons in the passing game.
However, it is unlikely Romo will be losing his job anytime soon.
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