The word “value” gets thrown around plenty during fantasy
drafts, and for good reason. Acquiring key contributors in the right
round without reaching for need can make or break fantasy owners.
That’s why mock drafts are important – to help owners
get an idea of which rounds a player might go in. But during these
busy summer months, not everyone has the time for that, so we’re
going to give you a position-by-position breakdown of overvalued
and undervalued players based on their Average Draft Position (ADP).
Undervalued
Colston is very capable of posting 1000
yds and 7 TDs.
Marques
Colston, Saints
ADP: 7.04
The Case for Colston Being Undervalued:
He’s never failed to produce and may be counted on even more this
season due to some key departures.
The Case against Colston Being Undervalued:
He’s 31 years old and tied a career-low with five touchdown receptions
last season.
Verdict: Colston’s numbers last season
were from far extraordinary – he had 75 receptions for 943 yards
and five touchdowns – but there’s reason to believe a statistical
uptick is on the horizon for 2014. Darren Sproles and Lance Moore,
who combined for over 100 receptions and 140 targets last season,
are gone. It shouldn’t automatically be assumed Kenny Stills and
rookie Brandin Cooks will completely pick up the slack. Colston
shouldn’t be anybody’s WR1, but on average he’s the 31st wideout
drafted, which is too low for Drew Brees’ most-trusted wide receiver.
Marvin
Jones, Bengals
ADP: 11.06
The Case for Jones Being Undervalued:
The big wideout caught 10 touchdowns last season and lines up opposite
A.J. Green.
The Case against Jones Being Undervalued:
His touchdown rate last season won’t be replicated, and the Cincinnati
offense is likely to throw the ball less in 2014.
Verdict: Last year, Jones came out
of nowhere to wind up 21st among wide receivers in fantasy scoring.
There is context to his numbers, however – 10 of his 51 receptions
went for touchdowns, a rate that will be all but impossible for
him to duplicate, and four of those scores came in one game against
the Jets. So Jones will probably score fewer touchdowns in 2014,
but it would be a surprise if he didn’t improve on his 51 catches
and 712 receiving yards. He came on toward the end of last season,
with at least 60 yards in four of his last five contests (including
the playoffs) and touchdowns in three of those games. Fantasy owners
should not expect Jones to once again be among the top-25 fantasy
scorers at wide receiver, but right now there are 49 other wideouts
being taken before him, and there won’t be 49 receivers ahead of
him in fantasy scoring come the end of the year.
Miles
Austin, Browns
ADP: 14.01
The Case for Austin Being Undervalued:
He’s a big and talented wideout on a Browns team with precious few
receiving options due to the likely suspension of Josh Gordon.
The Case against Austin Being Undervalued:
He’s had trouble staying healthy, and Cleveland has anything but
a stable quarterback situation.
Verdict: When healthy, Austin is a
guy capable of putting up numbers that make him worthy of low-end
WR2 status. The key phrase there being “when healthy.” He’s missed
at least five games in two of the last three seasons and was overshadowed
in the Dallas offense by Dez Bryant. Now with the Browns, Austin
becomes the team’s top option at wide receiver with Gordon’s probable
suspension. Austin has reportedly looked good during training camp,
and no matter who winds up as Cleveland’s starter at quarterback,
the 30-year-old from Monmouth will produce enough to make a late-round
selection of him look like a steal.
Overvalued
Pierre
Garcon, Redskins
ADP: 4.02
The Case for Garcon Being Overvalued:
With DeSean Jackson aboard, Garcon will not lead the league in targets
and receptions again this season.
The Case against Garcon Being Overvalued:
Robert Griffin III clearly trusts him, and there are still plenty
of throws to go around in head coach Jay Gruden’s offense.
Verdict: Last season, no wide receiver
was targeted more (182) or had more catches (113) than Garcon, but
despite all those looks, he managed only five touchdowns. This offseason,
Washington brought in DeSean Jackson and Andre Roberts to give RG3
and Gruden more weapons. Those two – particularly Jackson – should
slice into Garcon’s numbers significantly enough to make him tumble
into WR2 status. Garcon will still put up impressive enough numbers,
but 2013 was a career year for him.
Cordarrelle
Patterson, Vikings
ADP: 4.08
The Case for Patterson Being Overvalued:
The Vikings don’t exactly have superior quarterback play, Patterson
is still raw, and he likely won’t score three rushing touchdowns
again this season.
The Case against Patterson Being Overvalued:
His talent is undeniable, and he’s a threat to score every time
he touches the ball.
Verdict: Every position has an “it”
player, and in 2014 that player at wide receiver is Patterson. Despite
having fewer than 500 receiving yards last season and having his
fantasy scoring inflated by three rushing scores, fantasy owners
are overdrafting the Tennessee product. It’s perfectly logical to
think Patterson’s numbers will go up no matter who the Minnesota
quarterback is, but his ADP is the same as Andre Johnson’s and better
than the likes of Roddy White, Percy Harvin and DeSean Jackson.
To take a chance on Patterson makes all the sense in the world –
to do it in the fourth round ahead of established producers does
not.
Sammy
Watkins, Bills
ADP: 7.02
The Case for Watkins Being Overvalued:
His quarterback isn’t much of a passing threat at this point,
and rookie wideouts often struggle on teams without established
QBs.
The Case against Watkins Being Overvalued:
Watkins has talent on par with the best in the league.
Verdict: If Watkins were drafted by
a different team, it would be tempting to take him higher than the
seventh round. However, getting plucked by the Bills significantly
hurts his fantasy potential. Even if EJ Manuel shows marked improvement,
this is a run-first team that had only one player with at least
90 targets last season, Stevie Johnson. Johnson’s gone, and
though Watkins is expected to become the team’s top wideout
immediately, and we’ve seen rookie receivers succeed recently,
overall history suggests otherwise. None of the top three wideouts
being taken this season – Calvin Johnson, Demaryius Thomas
and Dez Bryant – reached 800 receiving yards as rookies.
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